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C-19 Updates 13:07 - Apr 17 with 11181 views

Some people have commented that they find this info useful and some would prefer it didn't clog up the main Corona thread. For those reasons I've decided to do a seperate thread which can happily be ignored by the main Corona thread contributers and read only by the stat nerds.

Can I ask that the general discussion about C-19 be kept in the Corona thread and leave this one just for updates and stats. Cheers.

Todays update

On the 16th April The USA or in particular New York decided to include non hospital deaths in their totals. They included an additional 3,778 deaths that went back to 11 March and added them to the April 14ths total so they went a little under the radar. New York has now made it mandatory to wear face masks so it will be interesting to see how their case and deaths numbers change in the coming weeks compared to other US states who don't follow the same guidelines.

France continues to do things slightly differently as they reported 17,164 new cases yesterday compared to 4,560 the day before. It's not the first time they have reported a large number of new cases, on the 3rd April they reported 23,060 compared to 2,116 the previous day and 7,788 the following day.

It's widely accepted now that Cases are an almost worthless stat as it depends on how many tests a country does. Deaths are also becoming unreliable as some countries include non hospital deaths and others don't. This article says that some of the unreported care home deaths are outnumbering the reported ones. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-

Based on the total reported deaths for the last 7 days, the UK is continuing to look like the sick man of Europe.

USA - 17905 (inc 3778 deaths in New York care homes)
UK - 5751
France - 5710 (inc care home deaths)
Italy - 3891
Spain - 3868
Belgium - 2334
Germany - 1445

Looking back at the timelines, the UK was 16 days behind Italy on 28th March, was 15 days behind on the 2nd April and was 14 days behind on the 12th April where it remains today. The UK was 9 days behind Spain on 30th March, it increased to nearly 10 days but is now close to 9 days again.

UK …..... Total Deaths … Spain … Total Deaths … Italy … Total Deaths
28/03/20 ….. 1019 ….. 19/03/20 …... 831 …... 14/03/20 ….. 1441
29/03/20 ….. 1228 ….. 20/03/20 ….. 1093 ….. 15/03/20 ….. 1809
30/03/20 ….. 1408 ….. 21/03/20 ….. 1381 ….. 16/03/20 ….. 2158
31/03/20 ….. 1789 ….. 22/03/20 ….. 1772 ….. 17/03/20 ….. 2503
01/04/20 ….. 2352 ….. 23/03/20 ….. 2311 ….. 18/03/20 ….. 2978
02/04/20 ….. 2921 ….. 24/03/20 ….. 2991 ….. 19/03/20 ….. 3405
03/04/20 ….. 3605 ….. 25/03/20 ….. 3647 ….. 20/03/20 ….. 4032
04/04/20 ….. 4313 ….. 26/03/20 ….. 4365 ….. 21/03/20 ….. 4825
05/04/20 ….. 4934 ….. 27/03/20 ….. 5138 ….. 22/03/20 ….. 5476
06/04/20 ….. 5373 ….. 28/03/20 ….. 5982 ….. 23/03/20 ….. 6077
07/04/20 ….. 6159 ….. 29/03/20 ….. 6803 ….. 24/03/20 ….. 6820
08/04/20 ….. 7097 ….. 30/03/20 ….. 7716 ….. 25/03/20 ….. 7503
09/04/20 ….. 7978 ….. 31/03/20 ….. 8464 ….. 26/03/20 ….. 8215
10/04/20 ….. 8958 ….. 01/04/20 ….. 9387 ….. 27/03/20 ….. 9134
11/04/20 ….. 9875 ….. 02/04/20 …. 10348 …. 28/03/20 …. 10023
12/04/20 …. 10612 …. 03/04/20 …. 11198 …. 29/03/20 …. 10779
13/04/20 …. 11329 …. 04/04/20 …. 11947 …. 30/03/20 …. 11591
14/04/20 …. 12107 …. 05/04/20 …. 12641 …. 31/03/20 …. 12428
15/04/20 …. 12868 …. 06/04/20 …. 13341 …. 01/04/20 …. 13155
16/04/20 …. 13729 …. 07/04/20 …. 14045 …. 02/04/20 …. 13915
…............ ….. …....... …. 08/04/20 …. 14792 …. 03/04/20 …. 14681
…............ ….. …....... …. 09/04/20 …. 15447 …. 04/04/20 …. 15362
…............ ….. …....... …. 10/04/20 …. 16081 …. 05/04/20 …. 15887
…............ ….. …....... …. 11/04/20 …. 16606 …. 06/04/20 …. 16523
…............ ….. …....... …. 12/04/20 …. 17209 …. 07/04/20 …. 17127
…............ ….. …....... …. 13/04/20 …. 17756 …. 08/04/20 …. 17669
…............ ….. …....... …. 14/04/20 …. 18255 …. 09/04/20 …. 18279
…............ ….. …....... …. 15/04/20 …. 18812 …. 10/04/20 …. 18849
…............ ….. …....... …. 16/04/20 …. 19315 …. 11/04/20 …. 19468
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 12/04/20 …. 19899
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 13/04/20 …. 20465
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 14/04/20 …. 21067
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 15/04/20 …. 21645
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 16/04/20 …. 22170

[Post edited 18 Apr 2020 21:09]

C-19 Updates on 01:28 - Apr 18 with 5510 views

GaryT

The https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has adjusated the number of Cases for France which has resulted in 18,967 fewer cases being reported between 03/04 and 16/04. All bar one of the adjustemts reduced the numbers apart from the 5th April which showed an increase. France has been including non hospital deaths recently but none of the death totals have been adjusted. This is worldometers explanation:

NOTE: France reported that a portion of the EHPAD and EMS nursing home cases - representing about 33% of the total EHPAD and EMS cases - were confirmed (rather than probable, as the other 67%) and as such are to be considered as already included in the total national case count [source]. The French Government has now started reporting the breakdown between confirmed and probable EHPAD and EMS cases [source]. We have adjusted the historical data for France from April 4 based on this information. In accordance with the decision by the French Government to include EHPAD and EMS probable deaths in the total death count [source] [source] EHPAD and EMS probable cases must be included in the total case count in order to be logically sound (a death implies a case) and methodologically consistent.

C-19 Updates on 02:16 - Apr 18 with 5489 views

FredManRave

Very informative and appreciate the time and dedication to providing this information which is certainly interesting. The eternal question is just how reliable/trustworthy the information is but even so you can only work with the available stats.

Question for you Gary. Are you aware of anywhere to get the same information but with the added stat if the actual number of tests taken. This is such an important stat and one that would provide more or less credence to the cases and fatalities numbers. Any idea?!

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C-19 Updates on 05:27 - Apr 18 with 5454 views

traininvain

C-19 Updates on 02:16 - Apr 18 by FredManRave

Agreed. For example, I heard that the US maxes out at 30k new cases per day as they’re only able to test say 300k people per day.

I guess the same applies to most countries.

C-19 Updates on 07:51 - Apr 18 with 5385 views

Watford_Ranger

C-19 Updates on 02:16 - Apr 18 by FredManRave

On the Worldometer site if you scroll right (I’m on a phone so maybe easier on a laptop).

Absolute number of tests and tests per million people. Interesting to see where we sit when you rank the latter.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

C-19 Updates on 09:23 - Apr 18 with 5324 views

nix

Thanks Gary. Very interesting to try and get an accurate picture. The only thing I'd disagree with you about is the stat about which country is the worst affected in Europe; based on population, Belgium is worse than the UK both in overall deaths - 445 deaths per million of the population, versus 215 in the Uk - and yesterday's death rate which if upscaled to the UK's population would be in the region of 1800 deaths.

It looks like we're on a similar place on the curve as we both reached 100 cases on March 6th. Belgium initiated its lockdown on March 18th but was reportedly less stringent about non-essential journeys and distancing (1.5m compared to 2m here). However, their government is reporting that their rate of hospitalisations has reduced and stated that they can cope with all cases needing hospitalisation. Their government seems to be worried about unrest from the population as the lockdown hasn't been observed so strictly in recent days.

C-19 Updates on 11:27 - Apr 18 with 5243 views

GaryT

I've looked at the stat "Deaths/1M Pop" before and chose not to concentrate on it because countries with very small populations like San Marino, Andorra and Sint Maarten appear in the top ten most affected and I didn't think that would be of much interest to people. For that particular part of my post I chose to look at the number of deaths for last 7 days which shines a light on what is happening now as I felt that was more interesting. Comparing the total number of deaths over all, or the Deaths/1m Pop can be misleading especially when every country is at a different point in their timeline. For example, both Spain and Italy have seen significant falls in the number of deaths being reported in the last two weeks which has led to relaxing their lockdowns. Both appear higher in that list than the UK and are likely to remain there for quite some time as their timelines are 9 and 14 days ahead, respectively but it doesn't tell you that Italy and Spain are on the downward curve and the UK is still on the upward curve. Here is the top 15 just for the record:

San Marino.............1149
Andorra...................453
Belgium...................445
Spain.......................428
Italy.........................376
France.....................286
UK...........................215
Sint Maarten...........210
Netherlands............202
Switzerland.............153
Sweden...................139
Luxembourg............115
Channel Islands.......115
USA.........................112
Ireland.....................107

So the USA doesn't look too bad when you look at that and the World should be concentrating on what to do about San Marino.

As for "Tests/1M pop, the same thing happens with The Faeroe Islands and Iceland way out in front with 119,641 and 115,859 respectively but the USA is way down in 41st place with 10,792.

When you look at the number of actual tests taken the USA has had far more than any other country with 3,572,257 with Germany 2nd with 1,728,357 and Russia 3rd with 1,718,019. Italy is 4th with 1,244,108, Spain 5th with 930,230 and the UK is 11th with 438,991.

It's certainly important that every country does as many tests as they can and comparing the UK to other similar sized nations is a good way to see how the different governments are doing with supply but on their own, these stats are not very useful. Take the USA for example, by far the most tests taken in the world but only 41st when measured against the size of the population. They have 24% of all the deaths in the world but the 14th worst death toll per 1M/pop. Hard to draw any concrete conclusions from stats like those.....but I'll try.

[Post edited 19 Apr 2020 11:41]

C-19 Updates on 11:37 - Apr 18 with 5216 views

GloryHunter

Thanks for all your hard work on this, Gary. Much appreciated.

C-19 Updates on 02:41 - Apr 19 with 5103 views

GaryT

Taking onboard nix's observation that a country's death totals are worthless unless you include its population, I have created a rolling 'last 7 day death/1M pop' graph. This gives a better snapshot of where a country is in comparison to another based on the deaths for the last 7 days only. There is still one big problem and that is to separate out those who include non hospital deaths and those who don't but I have found some info that can help with that. The other problem is that if a country drops in an additional number of deaths from the last few weeks, that will temporarily push their numbers up (I'm looking at you USA).

Belgium.........181 (50.7% are NHDs, 89 HDs) NHDs inc' deaths not tested
Spain..............86 (52.7% are NHDs, 41 HDs)
France............84 (38% are NHDs so 52 HDs)
UK..................82 Does not include NHDs
Italy................62 No info so assume does not include NHDs
Sweden..........62 includes NHDs
USA................56 (18444 deaths - 3778 NHDs added on 14/04 = 44 HDs)
Ireland...........51 includes NHDs
Switzerland....39 No mention of NHDs
Germany........20 includes NHDs

NHDs - Non Hospital Deaths
HDs — Hospital Deaths

As you can see it can get a bit complicated as some countries don't include hospital deaths and only Belgium includes deaths not tested. What makes it worse is that not all the countries that do include non hospital deaths are saying how many there were so I can't create a NHDs graph. (Unless someone can find one for me?)

What we can see is those who exclude NHDs:

Belgium have 89 HDs/1M pop
UK have 82 HDs
Italy have 62 HDs
France have 52 HDs
USA have 44 HDs
Spain have 41 HDs
Switzerland have 39 HDs

And those who include NHDs:

Belgium have 181 (and the only one to include not tested)
Spain have 86
France have 84
Sweden have 62
USA have 56
Ireland have 51
Germany have 20

Figures and percentages obtained from various websites so let me know if you find some that are wildly different but one very useful site was: https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-

[Post edited 19 Apr 2020 11:44]

C-19 Updates on 01:13 - Apr 30 with 4848 views

GaryT

A report dated 26th April on the LTC website sheds some light on other countries and how they are recording C-19 deaths. Today's announcement from the government of an additional 3811 deaths in England (not the UK) is only 15% of the total, here's how that compares to:

Belgium - 7,094 deaths linked to COVID-19, of these, 3,782 happened in care homes (53%) and 89 happened in the community or other settings.

France - 22,614 deaths as a result of COVID-19, of which 11,531 (51%) were residents in care homes. Of these, 8,564 died in care homes and were mostly “probably cases” (where a doctor confirmed that the symptoms were associated with COVID-19) and 2,967 died in hospital (and were confirmed through testing).

Germany - The total deaths in Germany on the 25 April were 5,500. Out of the 10,396 cases for whom there is complete information, 1,891 residents in communal settings had died (34%)

Ireland - As at the 22nd April, Ireland had registered 829 laboratory-confirmed deaths, 452 (55%) died that were community residential care home residents (including nursing homes). Additionally, there have also been 185 probable deaths linked to COVID-19 (that is where a laboratory test has not been done but a doctor believes a death is associated with COVID-19). Of these probable deaths, 124 occurred in community residential care homes. Adding confirmed and probable deaths would result in an estimated 57% of all COVID-19 related deaths being among care home residents.

Norway - As of 25th of April they have been notified of 193 COVID-19 deaths. Of these, 75 deaths (39%) occurred in hospitals, 122 (63%) in health institutions (care homes and other
institutions) and 3 (1%) in private homes

Portugal - Although no official reports have been released, the Government of Portugal released to the media the number of deaths in nursing homes. According to data published on April 23, 327 people have died in these nursing homes, a 40% of all deaths in the country.

Spain - No overall figure for the country but care home deaths from regions:
- Basque Country has registered a total of 499 deaths, which amounts to 40% of all the COVID-19 deaths registered in the region.
- Asturias has registered a total of 146 deaths, which represent 58% of all COVID-19 deaths that have been registered in the region.
- Madrid has registered, as of the 22nd of April, a total of 5,613 deaths, 70% of all COVID19 deaths that have been registered in the region.
- According to the Government of Catalonia, there have been 2,272 COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes, which adds up to a 23% of total deaths from COVID-19.
Castilla y León has registered a total of 2,226 deaths in nursing homes. The data in this region also includes adult disabled persons and differentiates between the 1,158 deaths of those diagnosed with COVID-19 and the 1,068 deaths of those with compatible symptoms. The 1,158 confirmed cases represent the 70% of all registered deaths from COVID-19 in the region.
- The Cantabrian Government has notified of a total of 105 COVID-19 deaths as of the 23rd of April, which represent 57% of the total COVID-19 deaths in the region. Out of these, 92 are confirmed COVID-19 cases and 13 are cases with compatible symptoms.

Northern Ireland - 17th of April there had been 276 deaths that mentioned COVID-19 in the death certificate. Of these, 93 (34%) happened in care homes

Scotland - up to the 19th April show that of the 1,616 deaths registered in Scotland by that date, 537 (33%) were in care homes.

So whilst 3811 non hospital deaths might sound like a lot, at 15% of the total it's likely to be the lowest in Europe. I don't think we can trust these numbers from the government (that exclude Scotland, Wales and N.I) so we'll have to look to the ONS for their delayed reporting on deaths from 'all causes' to get a better picture.

Download the PDF for the 26th April to get the info above and more from https://ltccovid.org/international-reports-on-covid-19-and-long-term-care/

[Post edited 24 May 2020 20:10]

C-19 Updates on 01:29 - Apr 30 with 4827 views

bob566

C-19 Updates on 11:27 - Apr 18 by GaryT

[Post edited 19 Apr 2020 11:41]

The one thing that leaps out there is they are all first world countries with high standards of living. So I'm guessing the reason they're up there is because they all have alot of high risk oaps

C-19 Updates on 07:54 - Apr 30 with 4763 views

Watford_Ranger

C-19 Updates on 01:13 - Apr 30 by GaryT

[Post edited 24 May 2020 20:10]

The 26000 number logically can’t be anywhere close to reality if it’s only covering confirmed tested people and we still have a low testing rate. I get it to an extent that they have to report a fully verifiable number but I wish they’d be transparent in how it’s calculated. Not as a government-bashing stat though I have no doubt they’re desperate to keep the publicised number nowhere near the grim reality, but to sharpen a few minds who think it’s nearly over and they can start to behave in a riskier manner.

C-19 Updates on 10:37 - Apr 30 with 4673 views

WatfordR

Thank you for your work on this mate.

A personal observation: there seems to be so much variation in the percentage rates of death and recovery per total cases per country. There has for sure been differences in the timing and type of national response, which may account for this to some extent, but it leads me to wonder whether these stats on their own are going to provide answers to how we deal with this virus going forward.

It's got me thinking that perhaps the more useful analysis would be to have info on the underlying health of those who have died and those who have recovered. And I understand that you can only do that analysis if the info is available, I don't know whether there is any chance it would be on a wide enough scale to be useful.

But for example, we've been told that large percentages of those who die have multiple comorbidities. Do we know whether there are other factors at play? Obesity has occasionally been mentioned as a factor. Some suggestion that ethnicity might have a bearing. Similarly, might there be a particular traits in those who have recovered? Is climate an issue? Diet?

If we accept that the virus is going to be around post lockdown, having a focus on who's really at risk and who is less at risk would be of real benefit going forward.

C-19 Updates on 11:01 - Apr 30 with 4658 views

Watford_Ranger

C-19 Updates on 10:37 - Apr 30 by WatfordR

I wonder if it’s explained a bit more simply than that. Wider testing = more official cases = more low risk cases = lower death rate. Also I get the impression (happy to be corrected by anyone more ITK) that you have to be in a seriously bad way here to get hospitalised compared to other countries which means being able to save some people by getting necessary treatment earlier in the illness.

As I said, I could be wrong on that as it’s not based on data.

C-19 Updates on 11:13 - Apr 30 with 4641 views

WatfordR

C-19 Updates on 11:01 - Apr 30 by Watford_Ranger

I agree, I'm sure the best practice was to test, isolate and track from the earliest opportunity, but the thing is we're beyond all that now, we've got to find a way forward. I feel that as comprehensive an understanding of who dies and why, who survives and why will be key to doing that most effectively. Even if it only confirms what you're saying.

C-19 Updates on 12:45 - Apr 30 with 4601 views

GaryT

I left my thoughts about comorbidity in the other thread some weeks ago and whilst there is something to be gained from identifying which chronic diseases + C-19 causes the most fatalities, finding out what percentage died with asthma + C-19 and what percentage died with diabetes + C-19 is some way off. At the moment most countries aren't even testing what caused those who died in care homes and at home so I doubt we'll get that breakdown any time soon.

The point of my last post was to highlight that 15% of the total fatalities for NHD's is an extreme underestimate. I'm sure that point will be made to Boris and Co very soon so hopefully they will expand on how those numbers have been calculated. What I found a little odd was that when the 3811 was spread out over the numbers from 3rd March, quite a few of the totals went down and some by several hundred. Even ones from early March when there was only a handful of deaths. How could they screw that up?

Anyway, now that we have a number that includes some of the UK's NHD's, we can compare that to Spain and France (albeit that their NHDs are much higher than 15%). I've also left Italy in the chart just in case they decide to add theirs as well. What we can see is that even with a much lower declared percentage of NHDs, the UK is not only ahead of France and Spain but is pulling away as they are a couple of weeks into the downward slope of the curve and the UK isn't. For this first one I've gone right back to the beginning so you can see how the UK started off behind the rest and how quickly that changed. We can debate why that is in the other thread but Cheltenham, Liverpool v Athlitco Madrid, Herd Immunity and a half arsed lockdown probably hasn't helped. I've highlighted the 25th April as a comparison point for this chart but that will change as the UK has been consistently declaring the 2nd highest daily death totals in the World for the last couple of weeks and there's little to suggest that will change any time soon.

..UK….....Deaths..…Spain...…Deaths..…France.....Deaths.....Italy…..Deaths
22/02 …..... 0 …..... 24/02 …..... 0 …..... 25/02 …..... 1 …..... 16/02 …..... 0
23/02 …..... 0 …..... 25/02 …..... 0 …..... 26/02 …..... 2 …..... 17/02 …..... 0
24/02 …..... 0 …..... 26/02 …..... 0 …..... 27/02 …..... 2 …..... 18/02 …..... 0
25/02 …..... 0 …..... 27/02 …..... 0 …..... 28/02 …..... 2 …..... 19/02 …..... 0
26/02 …..... 0 …..... 28/02 …..... 0 …..... 29/02 …..... 2 …..... 20/02 …..... 0
27/02 …..... 0 …..... 29/02 …..... 0 …..... 01/03 …..... 2 …..... 21/02 …..... 1
28/02 …..... 0 …..... 01/03 …..... 0 …..... 02/03 …..... 3 …..... 22/02 …..... 2
29/02 …..... 0 …..... 02/03 …..... 0 …..... 03/03 …..... 4 …..... 23/02 …..... 3
01/03 …..... 0 …..... 03/03 …..... 1 …..... 04/03 …..... 4 …..... 24/02 …..... 7
02/03 …..... 0 …..... 04/03 …..... 2 …..... 05/03 …..... 7 …..... 25/02 ….... 11
03/03 …..... 0 …..... 05/03 …..... 3 …..... 06/03 …..... 9 …..... 26/02 ….... 12
04/03 …..... 0 …..... 06/03 …..... 8 …..... 07/03 ….... 16 ….... 27/02 ….... 17
05/03 …..... 1 …..... 07/03 ….... 10 ….... 08/03 ….... 19 ….... 28/02 ….... 21
06/03 …..... 1 …..... 08/03 ….... 17 ….... 09/03 ….... 30 ….... 29/02 ….... 29
07/03 …..... 1 …..... 09/03 ….... 30 ….... 10/03 ….... 33 ….... 01/03 ….... 41
08/03 …..... 2 …..... 10/03 ….... 36 ….... 11/03 ….... 48 ….... 02/03 ….... 52
09/03 …..... 3 …..... 11/03 ….... 55 ….... 12/03 ….... 61 ….... 03/03 ….... 79
10/03 …..... 7 …..... 12/03 ….... 86 ….... 13/03 ….... 79 ….... 04/03 …... 107
11/03 …..... 7 …..... 13/03 …... 133 …... 14/03 ….... 91 ….... 05/03 …... 148
12/03 …..... 9 …..... 14/03 …... 196 …... 15/03 …... 127 …... 06/03 …... 197
13/03 ….... 10 ….... 15/03 …... 294 …... 16/03 …... 148 …... 07/03 …... 233
14/03 ….... 28 ….... 16/03 …... 342 …... 17/03 …... 175 …... 08/03 …... 366
15/03 ….... 43 ….... 17/03 …... 533 …... 18/03 …... 264 …... 09/03 …... 463
16/03 ….... 65 ….... 18/03 …... 638 …... 19/03 …... 372 …... 10/03 …... 631
17/03 ….... 81 ….... 19/03 …... 831 …... 20/03 …... 450 …... 11/03 …... 827
18/03 …... 115 …... 20/03 ….. 1093 ….. 21/03 …... 562 …... 12/03 ….. 1016
19/03 …... 158 …... 21/03 ….. 1381 ….. 22/03 …... 674 …... 13/03 ….. 1266
20/03 …... 194 …... 22/03 ….. 1772 ….. 23/03 …... 860 …... 14/03 ….. 1441
21/03 …... 250 …... 23/03 ….. 2311 ….. 24/03 ….. 1100 ….. 15/03 ….. 1809
22/03 …... 285 …... 24/03 ….. 2991 ….. 25/03 ….. 1331 ….. 16/03 ….. 2158
23/03 …... 359 …... 25/03 ….. 3647 ….. 26/03 ….. 1696 ….. 17/03 ….. 2503
24/03 …... 508 …... 26/03 ….. 4365 ….. 27/03 ….. 1995 ….. 18/03 ….. 2978
25/03 …... 694 …... 27/03 ….. 5138 ….. 28/03 ….. 2314 ….. 19/03 ….. 3405
26/03 …... 877 …... 28/03 ….. 5982 ….. 29/03 ….. 2606 ….. 20/03 ….. 4032
27/03 ….. 1161 ….. 29/03 ….. 6803 ….. 30/03 ….. 3024 ….. 21/03 ….. 4825
28/03 ….. 1455 ….. 30/03 ….. 7716 ….. 31/03 ….. 3523 ….. 22/03 ….. 5476
29/03 ….. 1669 ….. 31/03 ….. 8464 ….. 01/04 ….. 4032 ….. 23/03 ….. 6077
30/03 ….. 2043 ….. 01/04 ….. 9387 ….. 02/04 ….. 5387 ….. 24/03 ….. 6820
31/03 ….. 2425 ….. 02/04 …. 10348 …. 03/04 ….. 6507 ….. 25/03 ….. 7503
01/04 ….. 3095 ….. 03/04 …. 11198 …. 04/04 ….. 7560 ….. 26/03 ….. 8215
02/04 ….. 3747 ….. 04/04 …. 11947 …. 05/04 ….. 8078 ….. 27/03 ….. 9134
03/04 ….. 4461 ….. 05/04 …. 12641 …. 06/04 ….. 8911 ….. 28/03 …. 10023
04/04 ….. 5221 ….. 06/04 …. 13341 …. 07/04 …. 10328 …. 29/03 …. 10779
05/04 ….. 5865 ….. 07/04 …. 14045 …. 08/04 …. 10869 …. 30/03 …. 11591
06/04 ….. 6433 ….. 08/04 …. 14792 …. 09/04 …. 12210 …. 31/03 …. 12428
07/04 ….. 7471 ….. 09/04 …. 15447 …. 10/04 …. 13197 …. 01/04 …. 13155
08/04 ….. 8505 ….. 10/04 …. 16081 …. 11/04 …. 13832 …. 02/04 …. 13915
09/04 ….. 9608 ….. 11/04 …. 16606 …. 12/04 …. 14393 …. 03/04 …. 14681
10/04 …. 10760 …. 12/04 …. 17209 …. 13/04 …. 14967 …. 04/04 …. 15362
11/04 …. 11599 …. 13/04 …. 17756 …. 14/04 …. 15729 …. 05/04 …. 15887
12/04 …. 12285 …. 14/04 …. 18255 …. 15/04 …. 17167 …. 06/04 …. 16523
13/04 …. 13029 …. 15/04 …. 18812 …. 16/04 …. 17920 …. 07/04 …. 17127
14/04 …. 14073 …. 16/04 …. 19130 …. 17/04 …. 18681 …. 08/04 …. 17669
15/04 …. 14915 …. 17/04 …. 19478 …. 18/04 …. 19323 …. 09/04 …. 18279
16/04 …. 15944 …. 18/04 …. 20043 …. 19/04 …. 19718 …. 10/04 …. 18849
17/04 …. 16879 …. 19/04 …. 20453 …. 20/04 …. 20265 …. 11/04 …. 19468
18/04 …. 17994 …. 20/04 …. 20852 …. 21/04 …. 20796 …. 12/04 …. 19899
19/04 …. 18492 …. 21/04 …. 21282 …. 22/04 …. 21340 …. 13/04 …. 20465
20/04 …. 19051 …. 22/04 …. 21717 …. 23/04 …. 21856 …. 14/04 …. 21067
21/04 …. 20223 …. 23/04 …. 22157 …. 24/04 …. 22245 …. 15/04 …. 21645
22/04 …. 21060 …. 24/04 …. 22524 …. 25/04 …. 22614 …. 16/04 …. 22170
23/04 …. 21787 …. 25/04 …. 22902 …. 26/04 …. 22856 …. 17/04 …. 22745
24/04 …. 22792 …. 26/04 …. 23190 …. 27/04 …. 23293 …. 18/04 …. 23227
25/04 …. 23635 …. 27/04 …. 23521 …. 28/04 …. 23660 …. 19/04 …. 23660
26/04 …. 24055 …. 28/04 …. 23822 …. 29/04 …. 24087 …. 20/04 …. 24114
27/04 …. 24393 …. 29/04 …. 24275 …. …....... …. …....... …. 21/04 …. 24648
28/04 …. 25302 …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 22/04 …. 25085
29/04 …. 26097 …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 23/04 …. 25549
…....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 24/04 …. 25969
…....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 25/04 …. 26384
…....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 26/04 …. 26644
…....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 27/04 …. 26977
…....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 28/04 …. 27359
…....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. …....... …. 29/04 …. 27682

[Post edited 24 May 2020 20:19]

C-19 Updates on 13:07 - Apr 30 with 4574 views

nix

C-19 Updates on 11:13 - Apr 30 by WatfordR
I agree, I'm sure the best practice was to test, isolate and track from the earliest opportunity, but the thing is we're beyond all that now, we've got to find a way forward. I feel that as comprehensive an understanding of who dies and why, who survives and why will be key to doing that most effectively. Even if it only confirms what you're saying.

I think there's a difference between the test, isolate and track system and the fact that we aren't admitting people to hospital until they're in a seriously bad way though. Surely if you're in a state where you can barely speak your chances of recovery even after hospital admission are surely lesser than if you are admitted at an earlier stage.

Furthermore there's an interesting article here that explains that people are actually more ill than they appear with the particular path of Covid-19 by the time they are breathless.
https://www.livescience.com/silent-hypoxia-killing-covid-19-coronavirus-patients
You could wonder whether this in part explains the higher death rate to incident rate in the UK compared to Germany, for instance.

C-19 Updates on 13:14 - Apr 30 with 4559 views

nix

Gary, interesting post today. The more research you unearth the more it seems annoying that there isn't a world reporting standard. Sorry if I have missed this but haven't the WHO created one, and if not it's remiss of them?

We should at least be counting the same way across countries if people died with or from Covid. I would have thought it's easier to count as if it's the latter rather than guess the former if they have it (I.e not assume they would have died anyway because of co-morbidity). Otherwise it's so hard to compare countries and make assessments of best practice etc.

As for care home deaths, I think we should have to count them if there's a reasonable view that the death resulted from Covid, even if they haven't been tested. Eg. If there had been other cases in the care home and/or the patient showed symptoms.

C-19 Updates on 14:00 - Apr 30 with 4500 views

WatfordR

C-19 Updates on 13:07 - Apr 30 by nix

I think I'm trying to suggest a way to come up with standardised and meaningful analysis really. Every country is dealing with the virus in the way it thinks best, every country has its own different demographics.

The area where I feel there must be some consistency is in the health of those who died and those who survived. If there are trends to be picked out there, possibly it suggests the best approach to easing lockdown restrictions. It may suggest different approaches for different countries, or differences between cities/large towns and rural areas, differences between different ethnicities, whatever.

C-19 Updates on 15:32 - Apr 30 with 4476 views

GaryT

C-19 Updates on 13:07 - Apr 30 by nix

It was for the reasons mentioned in that article that I bought a pulse oximeter (after someone here bought one). Not only are we contagious without symptoms, our lungs are starting to fail us without us knowing. As we have little chance of getting a test when we are asymptomatic, these are actually a good way to find out if you are unwittingly infecting those around you.

C-19 Updates on 15:39 - Apr 30 with 4469 views

nix

C-19 Updates on 15:32 - Apr 30 by GaryT
It was for the reasons mentioned in that article that I bought a pulse oximeter (after someone here bought one). Not only are we contagious without symptoms, our lungs are starting to fail us without us knowing. As we have little chance of getting a test when we are asymptomatic, these are actually a good way to find out if you are unwittingly infecting those around you.

Yes I bought one of those too. I think they're pretty accurate as an indicator of how the lungs are working.

My point was I guess, if you and I know this, why don't the NHS guidelines reflect it!!!

C-19 Updates on 16:22 - Apr 30 with 4452 views

HantsR

C-19 Updates on 15:39 - Apr 30 by nix
Yes I bought one of those too. I think they're pretty accurate as an indicator of how the lungs are working. My point was I guess, if you and I know this, why don't the NHS guidelines reflect it!!!

Any recommendations as to type, cost, availability etc? I used to have one with my SCAS Community First Responder kit but don't have that any more.

C-19 Updates on 17:54 - Apr 30 with 4417 views

nix

C-19 Updates on 16:22 - Apr 30 by HantsR
Any recommendations as to type, cost, availability etc? I used to have one with my SCAS Community First Responder kit but don't have that any more.

I just bought one from Amazon. They're about £30.

C-19 Updates on 11:27 - May 1 with 4316 views

DWQPR

When I go for a run I set my Apple Watch for Outdoor Run and it provides me with a VO2 Max reading, which is the maximum amount of oxygen that the body can consume during exercise. How accurate this is I don’t know but my latest reading is 52.72 ml/(kg.min). I’ve assumed during this outbreak that the healthier you are and the more efficient your lungs are the more chance of getting through this unscathed. So plenty of running and other cardiovascular exercise. Just a shame that my legs don’t feel as enthused as the rest of me!

Poll:

Where will Clive put QPR in his new season preview

C-19 Updates on 18:25 - May 1 with 4258 views

GaryT

This is an update to the post on the 19th in which I compared countries that only reported Hospital Deaths and the ones that included Non Hospital Deaths. The numbers are from the last 7 days to give a better picture of what is happening now and are divided by '1m pop' to account for population size differences. Now that the UK has included some of the NHDs, here's how the other countries that include NHDs compare.

Belgium.............95 (from 181)(only country to include non tested NHDs)
UK.....................73 (from 94)
Sweden.............56 (from 62)
Spain.................51 (from 74)
USA...................41 (from 46)
France...............38 (from 84)
Germany...........12 (from 20)

So the last 7 days shows that every country here is seeing a slow down from 2 to 3 weeks ago. France, Belgium and Germany are the big movers (percentage wise) with Spain and the UK seeing a sizable slow down. Sweden and the US are at least showing a slow down but not as great as the others.

What this shows is that whilst the UK looks bad always following the US with the daily highest deaths, once you take into account the size of the population it's not quite as bad as it seems. That's about as good as I can get at trying to look on the bright side.

*The (from) numbers are not a copy from my earlier post but from what is being reported now as some countries have updated their numbers.

PS I got my pulse oximeter from Amazon as well, a no brand name model.

[Post edited 1 May 2020 18:26]

C-19 Updates on 02:36 - May 8 with 4082 views

GaryT

Comparing death tolls alone between countries doesn't work unless the population sizes are similar. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the USA has by far the worst death toll (76,928) but if you look at the number of deaths per 1 million population (232) it's roughly half of the UK (451) and less than a third of Belgium's (726). You still have to take into account what isn't included (non hospital, non tested) and then how far along the curve they are so to try and cut through some of that, here are the three charts that break that down. First the one of totals deaths that the TV likes to show:

USA — 76,928
UK — 30,615
Italy — 29,958
Spain — 26,070
France — 25,987
Belgium — 8,415
Germany — 7,322
Sweden — 3,040

Then we have The same countries listed but with their populations taken into account (by 1m Pop)

Belgium — 726
Spain — 557
Italy — 495
UK — 451
France — 398
Sweden — 301
USA — 232
Germany — 88

Now we see Belgium and Spain making the USA and the UK not look so bad. Then we have a similar one to above by this time by 10m population (not '1m pop') and only for the last 7 days. This shows you which countries are worst hit right now. (in brackets was 7 days ago and 14 days ago)

Belgium — 708 (was 952, was 1,409)
UK — 566 (was 734, was 860)
Sweden — 450 (was 559, was 681)
Spain — 326 (was 510, was 647)
USA — 394 (was 411, was 463)
Italy — 329 (was 400, was 559)
France — 247 (was 386, was 603)
Germany — 92 (was 125, was 181)

What is interesting here is that every country has seen a fall for the second week in a row which you would expect from them all being in lockdown for at least six weeks...but of course Sweden hasn't. I gave some of my thoughts about Sweden in the main thread here https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/forum/253881/page:139#post3836824 and when you combine their culture for social distancing with their subservient citizens, they look like a country that is tailor-made for dealing with C-19. That alone though doesn't fully explain why their current death toll is mirroring countries where the population has been locked up for 6/7/8 weeks.

When you look closer at what Sweden are doing the fog starts to clear and the differences between a UK lockdown and a Swedish lockdown are not as much as you'd think. The Swedish government have asked their people to work from home (and those that can have obliged) and to social distance (which they do anyway). The UK government have asked people to work from home (or stop work) and asked them to maintain social distancing when they are out getting some exercise. In Sweden a lot of schools are also closed and whilst the shops are allowed to stay open, a lot are seeing an 80% drop in trade as people stay away. Some restaurant would prefer to be closed and to receive financial help from the government as there aren't enough customers to cover the bills. The ones that are open are legally obliged to enforce social distancing or risk being closed down. The Swedes are not stupid, they know the rest of the world is in lockdown and some are wondering if their country might have made a mistake. Many are not taking any chances and are choosing to stay at home and self isolate but when they do venture out, are careful to keep their distance and always have some hand sanitizer on them.

The last thing to look at with Sweden is their death toll and whilst they compare favourably with the worst hit countries, compare them to their neighbours and they suddenly don't look so good.

Deaths per 1m/pop

Sweden — 301
Denmark — 89
Finland — 46
Norway - 40

When I look at Sweden what I see is what every country should look like when lockdown restrictions are eased. Work from home if you can, stay in if you can but if you have to go out to work or shop, keep your distance. Do that and the NHS & the economy can just about cope.

[Post edited 18 May 2020 15:07]

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