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An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first.
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread.
Agree it’s p1ss poor. I’m having to use twitter and Reddit to try and decipher what’s going on.
Trump’s ahead by 20k in Michigan but the gap is closing with Detroit still to come and cities tend to favour Biden.
The theme in the mid west seems to be Biden closing the gap once mail in ballots have been counted. Trump has a commanding lead in Pennsylvania but it’s not insurmountable.
Georgia is another state which is still very much up for grabs. Atlanta votes yet to be counted and expected to strongly favour Biden.
There has to be a run-off in a Georgia senate seat too, because of a weird system where they let lots of party candidates stand and then run off the top two. Imagine how much money will be poured into that if it it's the casting Senate vote, I think I'd leave the state to get some peace.
Agree it’s p1ss poor. I’m having to use twitter and Reddit to try and decipher what’s going on.
And the problem is Twitter's helpful new algorithm which shows you stuff it thinks you want to see, out of time order, means I'm occasionally getting something that makes me panic mixed in with stuff that's happening now, not realising that actually it's from eight or nine hours ago.
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread.
Must have heard me. 13.57, first time for several hours, a proper succinct run down of where we are.
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread.
The Day Today predicted all this...this is the state of mainstream media these days!
Must have heard me. 13.57, first time for several hours, a proper succinct run down of where we are.
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread.
Here’s what the German minister said ...
Edit: looks like me and the chef have served up a double helping of Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan-Hanraha-hanrahanrahanrahanrahan.
The pollsters need to have a good look at the models they have been using. Last time out, they didn't give enough credence to the votes of the non College degree voters. It seems they didn't re-weight the models any where near sufficiently.
It's going to boil down to whether the postal votes are as heavily biased towards Biden as has been predicted. If that is the case, Biden will probably take Wisconsin and Michigan which should push him over the line.
Even so, it's a lot closer than most pollsters predicted.
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one’s lifetime. (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop
How do you figure that? As far as I can see, he has to hold onto Wisconsin, and overturn slight leads in either Michigan or North Carolina.
Looking likely that Biden will win narrow victories in Michigan/Wisconsin. However probably won't be finalized for a while as I believe it takes Nevada a few days to declare. Unless he manages to scrape a win elsewhere.
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
Agreed. He was superb last night. MSNBC's stats wiz was excellent as well.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Looking likely that Biden will win narrow victories in Michigan/Wisconsin. However probably won't be finalized for a while as I believe it takes Nevada a few days to declare. Unless he manages to scrape a win elsewhere.
[Post edited 4 Nov 2020 14:21]
FWIW, assorted comments from 538:
Nevada - Friday likely Michigan - ditto Wisconsin - partial recount likely Georgia - one or two days N. Carolina - accepting posted ballots until 12 Nov
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Biden ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin now. Won't need Pennsylvania or Georgia if he gets those two plus Arizona and Nevada
It would be nice if this happens, especially after everything the Republicans have done to stop Pennsylvania from processing the ballots before election day.
Trump declares votes counted after the polls close as "Fraud", DeJoy Slows the delivery of mail down and removes hundreds of post boxes (along with not allowing processing of mail in ballots before election day), all done specifically to nobble Pennsylvania. The whole thing stinks so how sweet it would be if Biden wins without Pennsylvania and all their cheating was for nothing.
Nevada - Friday likely Michigan - ditto Wisconsin - partial recount likely Georgia - one or two days N. Carolina - accepting posted ballots until 12 Nov
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