| Trump 09:43 - Oct 27 with 115576 views | Hooparoo |
An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first. |  |
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| Trump on 15:08 - Nov 4 with 2010 views | traininvain |
| Trump on 14:59 - Nov 4 by BrianMcCarthy |
Washington Post speculating possible Penn victory for Biden.
That is surprising.
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It would follow the trend seen in the other mid west states with mail ballots saving the day for Biden. But it’s much tighter than expected!
It’ll be interesting to see the final Georgia results which should come through by this evening (our time).
Nevada still looks very tight and could be a game changer for Trump. |  | | |
| Trump on 15:13 - Nov 4 with 1984 views | pastieR |
| Trump on 15:08 - Nov 4 by traininvain |
It would follow the trend seen in the other mid west states with mail ballots saving the day for Biden. But it’s much tighter than expected!
It’ll be interesting to see the final Georgia results which should come through by this evening (our time).
Nevada still looks very tight and could be a game changer for Trump. |
Isn't the majority remaining count for Nevada either clark county or mail in. Therefore, Biden strong favourite? |  | | |
| Trump on 15:18 - Nov 4 with 1956 views | robith |
| Trump on 11:56 - Nov 4 by londonscottish |
Before Cameron won his last election with a healthy majority the polls were predicting a hung parliament all day long.
But Cameron had Lynton Crosby on his team. Lynton knew that winning elections was about winning marginal voters and set his door-door campaigners out every day with a variety of messages and every night he collated the results. Very quickly he worked which people in which parts of the county found which policies attractive and then doubled down on those. Then modelled all the results.
The folks in Tory HQ knew they'd won by 11.30 pm on election night and, what's more, predicted the majority pretty much exactly. Everybody outside was baffled.
Like him or loathe him you have to look past Trump and to his strategists because if he wins it's because of tactics like this and more fool the Democrats for not figuring this stuff out.
It's all about good data, gathered at the doorstep and decent tech to do the analysis.
At the end of the day, these elections are often won by a minuscule number of votes. |
But Cameron didn't win that Election with marginal voters though? In fact there was actually a small swing from Con to Lab of just over 1%. The tories won 8 seats from Lab, and Lab won 10 seats from the Tories.
But the Tories took 27 seat from the Liberal heartland of the Lib Dems who deserted them for Cameron, mostly in the South West. So what you've said there doesn't really ring true
Which in part lays the problem for polling in the US. You've got to think of it like having 52 constituencies - you can poll nationally to the margin of error but developing robust samples for individual states is v difficult |  | | |
| Trump on 15:22 - Nov 4 with 1930 views | PinnerPaul |
Biden 1/5 and Trump 7/2 with Paddy Power | | | |
| Trump on 15:23 - Nov 4 with 1930 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Trump on 15:08 - Nov 4 by traininvain |
It would follow the trend seen in the other mid west states with mail ballots saving the day for Biden. But it’s much tighter than expected!
It’ll be interesting to see the final Georgia results which should come through by this evening (our time).
Nevada still looks very tight and could be a game changer for Trump. |
It would, you're right. Just thought the gap was too big. |  |
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| Trump on 15:23 - Nov 4 with 1930 views | robith |
Not much to add other than Trump's speech this morning was genuinely chilling.
I know there's been chat ITT about "hysterical anti-Trumpers" but I dunno how you could watch that and not feel an icy spirit pass through you.
Oh and playing the Betfair exchange has been a touch. Backed Trump, cashed him after Florida. Backed Biden, cashed him a few minutes ago. Free money as everyone overreacts to the exact pattern people were told to expect | | | |
| Trump on 15:24 - Nov 4 with 1922 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Trump on 15:23 - Nov 4 by robith |
Not much to add other than Trump's speech this morning was genuinely chilling.
I know there's been chat ITT about "hysterical anti-Trumpers" but I dunno how you could watch that and not feel an icy spirit pass through you.
Oh and playing the Betfair exchange has been a touch. Backed Trump, cashed him after Florida. Backed Biden, cashed him a few minutes ago. Free money as everyone overreacts to the exact pattern people were told to expect |
"Oh and playing the Betfair exchange has been a touch. Backed Trump, cashed him after Florida. Backed Biden, cashed him a few minutes ago. Free money as everyone overreacts to the exact pattern people were told to expect"
Ya, I did the same. Have to love Betfair. | |
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| Trump on 15:25 - Nov 4 with 1915 views | daveB |
| Trump on 13:54 - Nov 4 by Northernr |
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread. |
They had a guy on this morning who was fantastic, he brought up a graphic which said who was winning, how many votes for each and how many votes left to count so it made sense top me where we were. Since then it's been complete gibberish and left me none the wiser [Post edited 4 Nov 2020 15:25]
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| Trump on 15:26 - Nov 4 with 1900 views | CliveWilsonSaid |
| Trump on 15:24 - Nov 4 by BrianMcCarthy |
"Oh and playing the Betfair exchange has been a touch. Backed Trump, cashed him after Florida. Backed Biden, cashed him a few minutes ago. Free money as everyone overreacts to the exact pattern people were told to expect"
Ya, I did the same. Have to love Betfair. |
Save some energy Brian.
We’ve got a match tonight! |  |
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| Trump on 15:28 - Nov 4 with 1883 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Trump on 15:26 - Nov 4 by CliveWilsonSaid |
Save some energy Brian.
We’ve got a match tonight! |
Might miss tonight's game actually. Not sure yet. | |
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| Trump on 15:31 - Nov 4 with 1854 views | traininvain |
| Trump on 15:23 - Nov 4 by robith |
Not much to add other than Trump's speech this morning was genuinely chilling.
I know there's been chat ITT about "hysterical anti-Trumpers" but I dunno how you could watch that and not feel an icy spirit pass through you.
Oh and playing the Betfair exchange has been a touch. Backed Trump, cashed him after Florida. Backed Biden, cashed him a few minutes ago. Free money as everyone overreacts to the exact pattern people were told to expect |
Totally agree. Even though I thought it would happen it was still shocking and will long live in the memory.
I don’t understand how anyone can justify this behaviour. Trump wasn’t even ahead at the time so it made little sense. I suspect he planned that speech expecting to be ahead. | | | |
| Trump on 15:33 - Nov 4 with 1836 views | kensalriser |
Fairly sure Biden has it now. He's favourite in all the remaining swing states except NC and possibly GA - and he doesn't need the whole lot. |  |
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| Trump on 15:36 - Nov 4 with 1814 views | Match82 |
| Trump on 15:01 - Nov 4 by GaryT |
It would be nice if this happens, especially after everything the Republicans have done to stop Pennsylvania from processing the ballots before election day.
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/election-reform-harrisburg-pennsy
Trump declares votes counted after the polls close as "Fraud", DeJoy Slows the delivery of mail down and removes hundreds of post boxes (along with not allowing processing of mail in ballots before election day), all done specifically to nobble Pennsylvania. The whole thing stinks so how sweet it would be if Biden wins without Pennsylvania and all their cheating was for nothing. [Post edited 4 Nov 2020 15:08]
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Republican party literally won the 2000 election as a result of votes counted/received after polls closed in florida |  | | |
| Trump on 15:36 - Nov 4 with 1816 views | londonscottish |
| Trump on 15:18 - Nov 4 by robith |
But Cameron didn't win that Election with marginal voters though? In fact there was actually a small swing from Con to Lab of just over 1%. The tories won 8 seats from Lab, and Lab won 10 seats from the Tories.
But the Tories took 27 seat from the Liberal heartland of the Lib Dems who deserted them for Cameron, mostly in the South West. So what you've said there doesn't really ring true
Which in part lays the problem for polling in the US. You've got to think of it like having 52 constituencies - you can poll nationally to the margin of error but developing robust samples for individual states is v difficult |
Maybe I used the term "marginal" incorrectly. Maybe I should have said "swing".
But in that election Tory HQ had a precise grip on and understating of voting patterns which meant they could devise the optimum local messaging in places where it really mattered and deliver a surprise majority.
It didn't happen by accident - they knew what they were going to win 12 hours before the counts were over. The polls, bookies & commentators were all over the place. |  |
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| Trump on 15:42 - Nov 4 with 1791 views | GaryT |
| Trump on 15:36 - Nov 4 by Match82 |
Republican party literally won the 2000 election as a result of votes counted/received after polls closed in florida |
Yep, different race different strategy. Odd how they aren't being reminded of this. |  | | |
| Trump on 15:50 - Nov 4 with 1750 views | Phildo |
Shredders might be overheating in the White House about now. Donald may be planning for a fight but others will be worried about getting locked up if they do not act lawfully. |  | | |
| Trump on 16:05 - Nov 4 with 1657 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
If Biden takes Wi, gives him 234 EC
If Trump takes Penn gives him 233 EC |  |
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| Trump on 16:07 - Nov 4 with 1658 views | SimonJames |
| Trump on 15:23 - Nov 4 by robith |
Not much to add other than Trump's speech this morning was genuinely chilling.
I know there's been chat ITT about "hysterical anti-Trumpers" but I dunno how you could watch that and not feel an icy spirit pass through you.
Oh and playing the Betfair exchange has been a touch. Backed Trump, cashed him after Florida. Backed Biden, cashed him a few minutes ago. Free money as everyone overreacts to the exact pattern people were told to expect |
Doh! I didn't realise you could bet on stuff like that there... I must check Betfair out. |  |
| 100% of people who drink water will die. |
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| Trump on 16:22 - Nov 4 with 1605 views | CincyHoop |
Looking more and more likely that Joe Biden will be our president. Not the outcome I voted for, but that is fine, the people have spoken and this is why we have a democracy. I hope all Americans get behind Biden and support him in attempting to move this country forward!
We need more people putting the A (American) in front of their names rather than R or D. This country would be a far better place in my opinion!
Congrats Joe (if largely expected results hold)! I'm with you win or tie! | | | |
| Trump on 16:22 - Nov 4 with 1603 views | Antti_Heinola |
| Trump on 15:36 - Nov 4 by londonscottish |
Maybe I used the term "marginal" incorrectly. Maybe I should have said "swing".
But in that election Tory HQ had a precise grip on and understating of voting patterns which meant they could devise the optimum local messaging in places where it really mattered and deliver a surprise majority.
It didn't happen by accident - they knew what they were going to win 12 hours before the counts were over. The polls, bookies & commentators were all over the place. |
This sounds amazing.
But does it not fall down a bit on the fact that Cameron himself had no idea he was going to win and every single plan he had was for the Con-Lib pact to continue? The only reason he ever agreed to the Brexit vote was because he was certain the Libs would stop him from having to do it. |  |
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| Trump on 16:41 - Nov 4 with 1533 views | robith |
| Trump on 16:22 - Nov 4 by Antti_Heinola |
This sounds amazing.
But does it not fall down a bit on the fact that Cameron himself had no idea he was going to win and every single plan he had was for the Con-Lib pact to continue? The only reason he ever agreed to the Brexit vote was because he was certain the Libs would stop him from having to do it. |
Or if they were so good at this they had a net loss to Labour?
Don't mean to be mean LS, this just doesn't seem to stack up with what happened | | | |
| Trump on 16:45 - Nov 4 with 1520 views | EmpireStateRanger |
Speaking as a bleeding-heart liberal in the blue oasis of Brooklyn, New York, Democrats did not do a good job diversifying their intentions. It was always about getting Trump out of office, and at some point, "he's a racist" just won't cut it, and the DNC putting their eggs in the Biden basket after how uninspiring he was in early primaries was a questionable decision, too. I maintain this even if Biden pulls it out.
Just look at how Miami-Dade voted... clearly those who would typically vote blue were scared off by the socialism label the Trump campaign branded onto Biden, even though Biden is essentially a 1990s Republican from the Northeast.
Thank god I have QPR to distract me at 2:45 local time. | | | |
| Trump on 16:50 - Nov 4 with 1492 views | TheChef |
| Trump on 16:45 - Nov 4 by EmpireStateRanger |
Speaking as a bleeding-heart liberal in the blue oasis of Brooklyn, New York, Democrats did not do a good job diversifying their intentions. It was always about getting Trump out of office, and at some point, "he's a racist" just won't cut it, and the DNC putting their eggs in the Biden basket after how uninspiring he was in early primaries was a questionable decision, too. I maintain this even if Biden pulls it out.
Just look at how Miami-Dade voted... clearly those who would typically vote blue were scared off by the socialism label the Trump campaign branded onto Biden, even though Biden is essentially a 1990s Republican from the Northeast.
Thank god I have QPR to distract me at 2:45 local time. |
I have to admit I couldn't understand how Biden ended up as the candidate, is there really no one else in the Democratic party who is viable?
Being given a choice of two establishment 70-somethings is a very loose approximation of democracy, but hasn't that always been the case (even including Obama's time in office)? |  |
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| Trump on 17:01 - Nov 4 with 1455 views | kensalriser |
| Trump on 16:45 - Nov 4 by EmpireStateRanger |
Speaking as a bleeding-heart liberal in the blue oasis of Brooklyn, New York, Democrats did not do a good job diversifying their intentions. It was always about getting Trump out of office, and at some point, "he's a racist" just won't cut it, and the DNC putting their eggs in the Biden basket after how uninspiring he was in early primaries was a questionable decision, too. I maintain this even if Biden pulls it out.
Just look at how Miami-Dade voted... clearly those who would typically vote blue were scared off by the socialism label the Trump campaign branded onto Biden, even though Biden is essentially a 1990s Republican from the Northeast.
Thank god I have QPR to distract me at 2:45 local time. |
Joe Biden's name was on the ballot, but paranoid Cuban Americans read 'Fidel Castro'. | |
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