| SAFETY 14:17 - Mar 6 with 3678 views | Spaghetti_Hoops |
There have been some misleading message board threads knocking about on what is needed for Premier League safety. Previous seasons stats show that the task of staying above the relegation zone is not as difficult as some make out. With 11 games to go the 17th team would have needed only 7 more points in 2010, 7 extra points in 2009 and 9 more points in 2006. The most required was another 14 points in 2008. The average over six seasons is 10 points from those 11 games.
Safe points.....Bottom 4 after 27 games....17th needed for safety
2012.....x..........22 I 22 20 20..................x
2011...40 pts......28 I 28 27 25.................12
2010...31 pts......24 I 24 23 19..................7
2009...35 pts......28 I 27 26 22..................7
2008...37 pts......23 I 22 19 9..................14
2007...39 pts......26 I 20 20 19.................13
2006...35 pts......26 I 23 18 10..................9
2005...34 pts............................average 10
2004...34 pts.......not available...
2003...43 pts.........................
2002...37 pts.........................
Of course that is what has happened in the past and is not necessarily a good guide to what will happen this season. If two of the teams below us take off on a good run it is a different ball game. Personally I don't think that is likely to happen. One team maybe, but not two. Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves have to play each other in March and two are unlikely to emerge from those games with a head of steam.
With a good Goal Difference you can take one point off the targets.
On the basis of these stats 32 points and maintaining a better GD will be enough. Going down with 36 or more points would be very unlikely.
[Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
|  | | |  |
| SAFETY on 14:46 - Mar 6 with 3610 views | adhoc_qpr |
Some interesting stuff there!
I see we would have been bottom and adrift at this stage last season, which shows how bad all 5 relegation mini-league teams are...
Obviously us getting 10 points from our remaining games will still require an upturn in our current form though. | | | |
| SAFETY on 15:27 - Mar 6 with 3568 views | westolian |
Only 3 wins and a draw
but where the fook are they coming from   |  |
| I've found a team sheet for the weekend - anyone interested ? |
| |
| SAFETY on 17:30 - Mar 6 with 3497 views | Spaghetti_Hoops |
| SAFETY on 15:27 - Mar 6 by westolian |
Only 3 wins and a draw
but where the fook are they coming from |
Perhaps two wins and four draws (and five defeats) will see us OK. Will be at Bolton on Saturday to see the start of the escape take shape. | | | |
| SAFETY on 11:21 - Mar 7 with 3280 views | BazWoT |
| SAFETY on 17:30 - Mar 6 by Spaghetti_Hoops |
Perhaps two wins and four draws (and five defeats) will see us OK. Will be at Bolton on Saturday to see the start of the escape take shape. |
We don't need to escape, we only need to maintain 16th/17th, simples. 
Good work though.
We'll stay up. |  |
| WE R PREMIER LEAGUE, SAY!!! |
| |
| SAFETY on 11:25 - Mar 7 with 3275 views | JonDoeman |
Not very good and not very lucky, we're doomed I tell ya! |  |
| |
| SAFETY on 11:25 - Mar 7 with 3272 views | QPunkR |
I'm loving this maths. Although I'm still pretty certain we'll go down this now shows that this is down to my negativity and not the mathematics of it!
We're in a horrible slump at the moment but the graph above shows we don't need an improvement of mammoth proportions to stay up.. |  |
| |
| SAFETY on 13:37 - Mar 7 with 3220 views | headhoops |
Interesting Spaghetti but stats dont really add up to much.
Should Bolton, Wigan, Wolves or Blackburn lose all their remaining games we would stay up on 22 points.
We know thats not going to happen as several play one another. Having looked at the fixtures, Bolton's are by far the easiest, ours are by far the hardest - we have to beat them on Saturday to have half a chance of survival IMO. |  |
| |
| SAFETY on 13:41 - Mar 7 with 3206 views | barbicanranger |
| SAFETY on 13:37 - Mar 7 by headhoops |
Interesting Spaghetti but stats dont really add up to much.
Should Bolton, Wigan, Wolves or Blackburn lose all their remaining games we would stay up on 22 points.
We know thats not going to happen as several play one another. Having looked at the fixtures, Bolton's are by far the easiest, ours are by far the hardest - we have to beat them on Saturday to have half a chance of survival IMO. |
old school mate of mine is a bolton fan - i was speaking to him last night and he was banging on about their run in being easy and they get to play all the teams around us...i think bolton will be the biggest threat...that said he said their midfield at the moment is championship at best so it could always work against them...no one knows...sit back and enjoy the ride. |  | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| SAFETY on 13:44 - Mar 7 with 3194 views | kingo |
| SAFETY on 13:37 - Mar 7 by headhoops |
Interesting Spaghetti but stats dont really add up to much.
Should Bolton, Wigan, Wolves or Blackburn lose all their remaining games we would stay up on 22 points.
We know thats not going to happen as several play one another. Having looked at the fixtures, Bolton's are by far the easiest, ours are by far the hardest - we have to beat them on Saturday to have half a chance of survival IMO. |
Agree, and what it all stacks up to is Saturday. It is a must win for many reasons, 5 points over them is a massive advantage at this stage of the season, plus the 'feel good factor' it will give the team for the next match is major. I am confident that now MH has ALL his main players available he will be able to get the win we require. |  |
| RIP: Sniffer, Doug and Pat |
| |
| SAFETY on 14:48 - Mar 7 with 3131 views | JAPRANGERS |
just come back in me time machine from Saturday and can tell you all we beat Bolton 3-0. Stuffed 'em.
Oh gotta go, the proverbial men in white coats are 'ere.... |  | | |
| SAFETY on 15:52 - Mar 7 with 3077 views | HollowayRanger |
BEAT BOLTON
WE STAY UP
lose we go down!
draw we need something at man city!
it's easy to work out really!  |  |
| |
| SAFETY on 16:18 - Mar 7 with 3051 views | BazWoT |
| SAFETY on 15:52 - Mar 7 by HollowayRanger |
BEAT BOLTON
WE STAY UP
lose we go down!
draw we need something at man city!
it's easy to work out really! |
"it's easy to work out really"
You really are a fruitcake aren't you!
If the bottom three lose all their games we don't need anything.
If they win all their games then we have to as well.
Neither scenario is likely so it's not easy to work out at all. | |
| WE R PREMIER LEAGUE, SAY!!! |
| |
| SAFETY on 18:56 - Mar 7 with 2986 views | brewers_hoop |
2008 seems the closest to us. That season finished up with a bottom five that looked like this (by that reckoning it's 13 points needed from 11 games - beat Bolton, Swansea, Stoke & nick a point from Arsenal, Liverpool, Sunderland &WBA - job's a goodun).
16 Sunderland 38 9 9 20 34 54 −20 36
17 Hull City 38 8 11 19 39 64 −25 35
18 Newcastle United (R) 38 7 13 18 40 59 −19 34
19 Middlesbrough (R) 38 7 11 20 28 57 −29 32
20 West Bromwich Albion (R) 38 8 8 22 36 67 −31 32
|  | | |
| SAFETY on 20:22 - Mar 7 with 2929 views | Red_Ranger |
Looking forward. Study the fixtures. Do the permutations. It's real low. Maybe it's a freak year, but I reckon 30 points is safety. I still reckon lose on sat and we got a MOUNTAIN to climb.
Ps. Good post Spaghetti, interesting data [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
| | | |
| SAFETY on 07:37 - Mar 8 with 2840 views | Red_Ranger |
| SAFETY on 13:41 - Mar 7 by barbicanranger |
old school mate of mine is a bolton fan - i was speaking to him last night and he was banging on about their run in being easy and they get to play all the teams around us...i think bolton will be the biggest threat...that said he said their midfield at the moment is championship at best so it could always work against them...no one knows...sit back and enjoy the ride. |
Fact is there needs to be two teams higher than us for us to be relegated.
Bolton could win every game and we could still stay up.
My prediction is one team will break away and leave it to 3 out of 4 dropping.
Let's hope it's us and don't need anything at etihad.
Jesus its tight [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
| | | |
| SAFETY on 14:26 - Mar 22 with 2700 views | Spaghetti_Hoops |
An update of the SAFETY table after two more games.
Safe points.....Bottom 4 after 29 games....17th needed for safety
2012.....x..........25 I 23 22 22..................x
2011...40 pts......31 I 31 29 27..................9
2010...31 pts......27 I 24 24 19..................4
2009...35 pts......29 I 29 27 23..................6
2008...37 pts......26 I 25 20 10.................11
2007...39 pts......30 I 24 20 20..................9
2006...35 pts......27 I 24 21 10..................8
2005...34 pts......26 I 24 21 20..................8
2004...34 pts......27 I 27 25 24..................7
.............................................average 8 pts
In an average season from here 33 points would now be the Safe Point. Or 32 points with a superior goal difference. A requirement of more than 36 pts (35pts plus good goal difference) is very unlikely.
These stats only show what has happened in the past. If two of the bottom five go on a winning run the Safe Point could be significantly higher, and we are competing with Blackburn, Bolton, Wolves and Wigan, not statistics. However in showing what has happened in the past the table is at least more helpful than idle speculation.
The chances are that we will be safe with something like two more wins and two draws.
[Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
| | | |
| SAFETY on 11:21 - Apr 14 with 2450 views | Spaghetti_Hoops |
Further update with 5 matches to go.
Safe points.....Bottom 4 after 33 games....17th needed for safety
2012.....x..........31 I 29 28 22..................x
2011...40 pts......34 I 33 32 32..................6
2010...31 pts......31 I 27 27 14*.................0
2009...35 pts......34 I 31 30 25..................1
2008...37 pts......30 I 26 24 11..................7
2007...39 pts......34 I 32 29 23..................5
2006...35 pts......29 I 29 28 11..................6
2005...34 pts......28 I 28 27 24..................6
2004...34 pts......34 I 32 28 25..................0
.............................................average 4 pts
During the last eight years the 17th team have not needed more than 7 pts to be safe with five matches to go. The average has been 4 pts required. From where we are now, with our good goal difference, it would be statistically very unlikely for us to be relegated on 37 points or more.
Of course it's anyone's guess what will be the Safe Point this season, but for what it's worth my guess is 36pts, which coincidentally is the average over the last eight years.
I have not tried the BBC predictor. I suppose using that tool the pessimists predict us being relegated and the optimists reaching safety. In the unpredictable world of football one match can be hard enough to predict so trying to come up with a useful result predicting 20+ matches seems like an exercise in futility.
Anyway off up the M1 and M6 to watch the next gripping episode. Come on URssss.
[Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
| | | |
| SAFETY on 11:30 - Apr 14 with 2428 views | ade_qpr |
| SAFETY on 11:21 - Apr 14 by Spaghetti_Hoops |
Further update with 5 matches to go.
Safe points.....Bottom 4 after 33 games....17th needed for safety
2012.....x..........31 I 29 28 22..................x
2011...40 pts......34 I 33 32 32..................6
2010...31 pts......31 I 27 27 14*.................0
2009...35 pts......34 I 31 30 25..................1
2008...37 pts......30 I 26 24 11..................7
2007...39 pts......34 I 32 29 23..................5
2006...35 pts......29 I 29 28 11..................6
2005...34 pts......28 I 28 27 24..................6
2004...34 pts......34 I 32 28 25..................0
.............................................average 4 pts
During the last eight years the 17th team have not needed more than 7 pts to be safe with five matches to go. The average has been 4 pts required. From where we are now, with our good goal difference, it would be statistically very unlikely for us to be relegated on 37 points or more.
Of course it's anyone's guess what will be the Safe Point this season, but for what it's worth my guess is 36pts, which coincidentally is the average over the last eight years.
I have not tried the BBC predictor. I suppose using that tool the pessimists predict us being relegated and the optimists reaching safety. In the unpredictable world of football one match can be hard enough to predict so trying to come up with a useful result predicting 20+ matches seems like an exercise in futility.
Anyway off up the M1 and M6 to watch the next gripping episode. Come on URssss.
[Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
|
those tables have all teams played equal games?
Bolton now have game in hand.
|  |
| If a turtle doesn't have a shell, is he homeless or naked? |
| |
| SAFETY on 12:23 - Apr 14 with 2328 views | westolian |
| SAFETY on 11:30 - Apr 14 by ade_qpr |
those tables have all teams played equal games?
Bolton now have game in hand.
|
At this stage anyone would rather the points than games in hand
4-6 points on current form has just brought a smile to my face - and seeing who Wigan and Villa have this weekend | |
| I've found a team sheet for the weekend - anyone interested ? |
| |
| SAFETY on 13:09 - Apr 14 with 2256 views | Antti_Heinola |
Thanks for updating this thread Spaghetti - really interesting stuff! |  |
| |
| SAFETY on 13:28 - Apr 15 with 2094 views | Spaghetti_Hoops |
| SAFETY on 11:30 - Apr 14 by ade_qpr |
those tables have all teams played equal games?
Bolton now have game in hand.
|
ade
Almost without exception previous years figures are exactly 33 games for all teams. Whether Bolton win, lose or draw their match in hand the 17th team will have been on 31 points at the 33 match mark this season.
Just a personal opinion, but yesterdays results changed very little. In past seasons most of the bottom teams lost most of the time and I am expecting/hoping Aston Villa, Wigan and Bolton next time they play to do just that. It is usually a crawl over the line, not a competitive sprint.
Antii, thanks. As we get nearer the finish what happened in previous years becomes less of a useful guide, but still interesting imo. | | | |
| SAFETY on 13:37 - Apr 15 with 2073 views | JonDoeman |
| SAFETY on 11:25 - Mar 7 by JonDoeman |
Not very good and not very lucky, we're doomed I tell ya! |
Negative Nelly!
-----------------------
We're not bad now, just a shame it's taken so long to click. | |
| |
| SAFETY on 13:43 - Apr 15 with 2055 views | andygg |
What I do know is, we`ll be pulling our hair out till the last minute of the last game, again.  |  | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
