Wolves v QPR - Betting Preview
Friday, 16th Sep 2011 19:10 by LFW Pundits
Buoyed by an improved showing on Monday QPR travel to Wolves tomorrow looking for points. Meanwhile our pundits have made a slow start to the season as well but will attempt to find value in the weekend markets.
If it were winter already, and Andy and Brian hung around together, there may be an occasion where they go out walking their dogs together only to see one of beloved pooches crash through some thin ice on a park pond. They may also, being animal lovers, decide to wade in after the mutt and find themselves in rather deeper water than they'd initially anticipated. Were you to witness this you'd probably offer some help in the form of a lifebelt.
We'll leave that tortured metaphor where it is and introduce Owen Goulding, an odds compiler for a major bookmaker, who noted another almost blank week in last week's column and incorrect prediction in the match preview and offered to write a small piece each week with a 'bet of the day' for the QPR match. 'The Pro' follows our regular pundits' attempts to claw some money back before they come and switch the gas off at LFW Towers . Both are banking on a generous offer from Victor Chandler on a Shaun Wright Phillips first goalscorer bet which is worth reading on for.
For the record Andy is down £141.50 with £25 live in the Rugby World Cup, and Brian is down £118.19 with £20 live in New Zealand.
There was a recurring character in the much missed TV show ‘Monkey Dust’ called Clive (no relation to our dear leader…) who, after getting in from work sometimes months after he was due home, gave fantastic excuses to his wife as to his absence, normally along the lines of the plot of Braveheart or The Bible or similar. That’s kind of how I feel at the moment, as I have to give you yet another reason why I crashed and burned this week in this column. With this in mind, here’s this weeks tale of woe:
My accumulator was actually doing spectacularly well, all the 3pm matches had come in, and all that was left was Man U (3-0 up at half time) and Barcelona (2-0 up at half time). Both teams were 100/1 ON to win their games. In the ‘real world’, faced with a similar accumulator, to guarantee my winnings I actually backed both Man U and Barcelona to not win, at 100/1, for the minimum bet of £2 each. Barcelona then went on to concede two goals to Real Sociadad, busting both my betting column accumulator, and my actual accumulator, yet netting me £200 at the same time. Sadly of course, I couldn’t do that for this column, and it goes down as another miss.
I did make £4.50 profit on eight or more booking points for the Newcastle game though - my first actual win this season!
This week, we’re away at Wolves, and after our very encouraging performance against Newcastle on Monday, confidence must be pretty high going into this game. Whereas before Monday I would have gone for a Wolves win, I am now looking at a QPR win, Draw no bet, available at a quite generous 13/5 with Bet365. I was surprised to see Shaun Wright-Phillips as high as 18/1 with Victor Chandler for the first goal scorer, (especially when they have Hogan Ephraim at 22’s…) so I will go for him as well.
Elsewhere, the game of the weekend sees 33 year old Villas Boas’ Chelsea at Old Trafford against Manchester United. There is a propensity for these big games to end up 1-1, so I will go for the same here, available at 7/1 with Ladbrokes.
Finally, my multiple for the week, and I’m going to do a fourfold and three trebles @ £2.50 a leg - Arsenal, Crawley, Charlton or the Draw, and Swansea vs. West Brom a Draw.
For the Weekend:
Wolves vs. QPR - QPR to win, DNB, £10 @ 13/5 (Bet365)
Wolves vs. QPR - SWP to score first - £7.50 @ 14/1 (Victor Chandler)
Man U vs. Chelsea - 1-1 Draw - £5 @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Fourfold and three trebles - Arsenal, Crawley, Charlton or the Draw, and Swansea vs. West Brom a Draw £12.50 @ Various odds.
Rugby World Cup:
New Zealand to not win - £15 @ 6/4 (Various)
The Big 4 to all win their group - £10 @ 11/8 (Various)
When researching the column earlier in the week my source of prices had SWP at 18/1 to score first with Victor Chandler and this sprang out as a great bet however when checking again today he is listed at 14/1 which is good value with his performance on Monday night. It has the double incentive on VC offer of double the odds if your selected player scores first and then gets a second.
If we had taken a couple of the chances on Monday and won the game I don’t think the 7/2 on us to win would be available. I know that this is a “If Aunty had balls she’d be my Uncle” scenario but it is a generous price for two teams expected to be fighting off relegation at the start of the season.
The Ayr Gold Cup takes place on Saturday and James Fanshawe’s Macs Power is available at 12/1. Although the horse has not won this year and Fanshawe’s doesn’t have a good record at Ayr it should not put you off. He ran a good race to come third in the Stewards Cup & led the standside group home in the Wokingham so Ayr should suit.
In the Silver Cup at 2.15 Nasri can take the spoils, he was considered to be a prospect for Lincoln at the beginning of the year and David Nicholls will have him fit and raring to go.
On Saturday morning Ireland face the Aussies in the Rugby World Cup. The Irish will need to cut out the handling errors from their opener if they are to have a chance of victory. I hope they do it but fear the Aussies will win but It will help if James O'Connor gets the first try.
Enjoy your weekend.
For the weekend:
£5 1st scorer SWP 14/1 Victor Chandler
£10 QPR to beat Wolves 7/2
£7.50 win singles and a £1.50 ew double
3.20 AYR Macs Power 12/1
2.15 AYR Nasri 12/1
£7 1st tryscorer James O'Connor Ireland V Australia Rugby World Cup 10/1 Corals
£2 trebles and a £2 acca
West Ham 13/10
£15 Australia to win Rugby World Cup 7/2
£5 O'Connor top tryscorer 16/1
QPR fans will be eagerly anticipating the journey to the Black Country after an excellent display against Newcastle on Monday. Having studied the match, one particular statistic from each of the team's last games stands out. Wolverhampton conceded 16 efforts to Tottenham, whereas QPR also had 16 efforts on goal against the Magpies. A total of two goals was scored between these games, but having watched both, it is hard to argue that there could of been treble this amount. I am therefore interested in the total goals market, and the general 11/10 available on Over 2.5 goals certainly appeals.
On the goal scorer front, the performance of SWP certainly suggested goals to come. With Wolves defence likely to consist of the physical, yet less than mobile trio of Berra, Roger Johnson and Stearman it is likely that Bothroyd will struggle to have the immense impact he had aerially against Newcastle. However, it could prove just the game for the pace and movement of players such as SWP and Taarabt. Therefore I am suggesting a small bet on SWP to score at anytime at a current price of 5/1 with Blue Square .
Bet of the day - Over 2.5 goals, Wolves v QPR 11/10 (generally available)
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