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Dunne and Austin goalscoring value in Millwall markets – betting
Friday, 18th Oct 2013 00:08 by Andy Hillman

Andy Hillman and Owen Goulding are back to survey the weekend sporting markets, and assess where you could make a killing at The Den.

Both pundits profited from their faith in Charlie Austin and a Richard Dunne-led defence against Barnsley a fortnight ago, and they’re sticking to what’s winning this week as the R’s head to Millwall.

Andy Hillman

Once again, the LFW Betting Column makes a mockery of stats and trends, stopping both Arsenal’s winning run, and gifting Bolton their first win of the season at the same time. We here at LFW Towers (we all live together, I do the cooking) are nothing if not generous. The international break has given me a week off, and I’m now back, and liking the look of quite a few markets in the Premier League this week...

NAP of the week: Sochaux vs Monaco - Monaco -1 @ 7/5

Monaco are sitting top of Ligue 1 at the moment, unbeaten and level on points with PSG. They travel to Sochaux, second bottom, and with one win all season, against the only team below them in the league. Monaco straight win is available at 1/2, but a Monaco -1 win at 7/5 appeals greatly.

QPR Related Bet: Charlie Austin anytime goal scorer @ 11/8

I really wasn’t sure where to go with my QPR related bet this week. Millwall are massively erratic at the moment - they have won their last two home games, but lost their last two away games with a seven goal margin. QPR are beginning to look good, and are adding a level of style to considerable substance, but Millwall is a God awful place to go, and you can see some of our more tippy-tappy types being bullied. The stage is probably set then for the hardest working frontman in football, Charlie Austin, to keep up his excellent run of five goals in his last five games. 11/8 to score anytime is a massive price.

Premiership Shorts:

Arsenal vs Norwich - Arsenal to win & BTTS @ 2/1
Arsenal may be top, and are dreamy going forward, but their only clean sheet this season came against Spurs. 2/1 on Arsenal to win and BTTS looks like value to me...

Chelsea vs Cardiff - HT/FT - Chelsea/Chelsea @ 3/4
Nothing quite destabilises a club like a meddling chairman, upset at the manager taking all the credit does it? Poor old Malky Mackay. If he could just stay on at Cardiff long enough for Harry Redknapp to leave / get bored / whatever he’s planning to do after QPR, that would be great.

Crystal Palace vs Fulham - Fulham to win @ 15/8
Win Di Canio leaving Sunderland, Palace fans are wondering where they’re going to get their other three points from this season. Fulham have not been the best this season, and are struggling at times to gel their attacking players, but Palace are dead men walking, and Fulham at 2/1 looks big to me.

Everton vs Hull - Ht/FT Draw/Everton @ 10/3
Everton are doing well under Martinez, and in Lukaku, they have one of the league’s best frontmen. But Hull are surprisingly resilient in the Premier League (things you never thought you’d say number 263...), have only lost twice in the league (away at Chelsea and Man City...) and have kept three clean sheets on the spin. Everton to win, but Hull to make it hard for them.

Previous winners:

QPR related bet: QPR to win to nil v Barnsley @ 33/20, 03/10/13

NAP of the Week - Forest to beat Huddersfield @ 5/6 – 02/08/13

NAP of the Week - Bordeaux vs Monaco - Monaco to win @ 6/4, 09/08/13

NAP of the week: Monaco to Beat Montpellier @ 4/7, 15/08/13

NAP of the week: Man City to win to nil @ 20/23 – 29/08/13

NAP of the week 2 - Man Utd vs Palace - Utd to win to nil @ 21/20 – 13/09/13

NAP of the week 3 - Sunderland vs Arsenal - Arsenal to win @ 8/11 – 13/09/13

QPR Related bet: QPR vs Birmingham - QPR win @ 3/5 – 13/09/13

Giroud and Sturridge to score anytime double 6/1 – 13/09/13

QPR to win at Yeovil @ 11/13 – 20/09/13

NAP of the week – Blackpool vs Leicester – BTTS @ 7/9 – 20/09/13

NAP of the Week - Liverpool to beat Sunderland @ 7/10 – 27/09/13

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 – 27/09/13

The Pro

QPR take their unbeaten record to The Den this week. It is often referred to as 'Fortress New Den', but the truth of the matter is it is anything but a fortress this season. Having won only two of their five home games, Millwall hit a season low after a particularly demoralising 5-1 drubbing by visitors Derby County on September 14. They then surprisingly won their next three games on the bounce, defeating Blackpool, Charlton and Leeds in the space of ten days. It seemed they had turned the corner, but a return to that terrible form came back with a bang as they have conceded nine goals in their last two games after drubbings from Bournemouth and Birmingham.

Steve Lomas is not a popular figure down the 'Wall. His West Ham connections aren't doing him any favours, and coupled with their schoolboy defending, I'm not sure how long his tenure will last. On a team news front, Millwall will be missing the tough tackling Alan Dunne through suspension, and centre half Mark Beevers through injury. Scott MacDonald will face a late fitness test and may well not make it, leaving a likely forward line of Martyn Waghorn and Steve Morison - hardly a pair to strike fear into the Rangers defence.

Their main problem though is undoubtedly in defence. Karleigh Osborne and Paul Robinson will provide the centre half pairing for the Lions and the movement of the QPR diamond can cause these two no end of problems. I'm tempted by the Evens on offer for a QPR win but goalscorer betting has served me well this season so I'm going to stick with that. With Carroll a doubt, the exact midfield is not known but one thing that is apparent in recent weeks is that Richard Dunne is like a fine wine - improving with age. He's had a number cleared off the line this season so far and with Millwall missing Mark Beevers and Alan Dunne, it certainly leaves them open to aerial attacks. Millwall seem to have made a habit of conceding goals to opposition centre-halves, Jake Buxton (Derby), Reda Johnson (Sheff Wed) and Steve Cook (Bournemouth) have all netted headers against the Lions this season, and I’m hoping Dunne (and/or Hill) can add to that list.

Bets of the weekend:

Main Bet - Richard Dunne to score anytime (12/1- Hills, Skybet, Paddypower)

Small Bet - Clint Hill to score anytime (14/1 - 888Sport and Bet365)

Dunne, Dunne, Dunne, Dunne, Dunne, Dunne.......

Previous Winners:

Bet of the weekend - Charlie Austin to score anytime v Barnsley Evens 03/10/13

Benteke to score at any time v Arsenal at 11/4 (Coral/Skybet), 17/08/13

Nile Ranger First Goalscorer Each Way 11/2 (Paady Power/Skybet), 28/08/13

QPR to score first v Leeds at Even money (Bwin/Betfair), 28/08/13

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

Tweet @loftforwords, @andy_hillman

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