QPR come face to face with their former coach John Eustace again tomorrow, having thrashed him 4-0 in his first game in charge of Derby last time we met. Derby are struggling again to start this season so, is this guy any good, or what?

Derby (2-5-4 LDDDLW 19th) v QPR (5-3-3 WDDWLW 8th)

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John Eustace could, perhaps should, have been the QPR manager.

He arrived at the club in the summer of 2018, warmly recommended to Lee Hoos by his former manager at Burnley Sean Dyche, as an assistant to Steve McClaren. He had been a manager in his own right prior to that– albeit in non-league, but Kidderminster are a reasonably big name at that level and the reputation he was forging for the job he was doing at Aggborough would surely have brought an EFL top job offer sooner rather than later. He chose to come and carry Schteve’s umbrella instead.

Rangers were pushing the play-offs when, for the second time that season, they won three games on the spin leading into Christmas. The autumn promise of that McClaren season decayed away to a chaotic spring. QPR started the year with seven straight league defeats, interrupted only by Luke Freeman’s one-man show at home to Leeds, and there were another seven without a win to come after that. Eventually the R’s had won one of 17 league games, culminating in a disastrous week when they were beaten at home by financially crippled bottom club Bolton, and then Rotherham United for whom it remained their only away win of the whole campaign. Having talked himself into the job in the first place, and Ian Holloway out of it as a consequence, McClaren had to go.

Eustace, however, didn’t. I wrote a spitting match report (do I know any other kind?) for a 4-0 away defeat at Norwich asking why exactly the hands-on coach was being allowed to take the team for the remaining games rather than pissing off into the distance with the hair island. Eustace, though, steadied a rocking ship with a draw at Millwall and subsequently won at home to Swansea (4-0, randomly) and away at Sheff Wed on the final day. QPR looked reasonably well coached and organised in those games, which was really quite something if you’d been at the Bolton and Rotherham games.

When interviews were held that summer for a new manager, Les Ferdinand and Hoos stressed they’d like to keep Eustace on. Warbs Warburton did exactly that when he got the top job. In an early interview Warburton said he’d been minded to maybe do half a dozen in and out that summer, but Eustace had warned him not to put faith in that squad of players and to change as much as possible (not in a disrespectful way, far from it). Rangers ended up doing 16 in each direction, and the team started to move in the right direction.

As Warbs led QPR to finishes of 14th, 9th and 11th, with numerous play-off flirtations amongst them, Eustace was twice approached for manager jobs elsewhere by progressive Swansea and Blackpool. He stayed put and got on so well with Warburton that, when he was jettisoned by Rangers for failing to make the play-offs in 2021/22, Eustace fully expected to go with him to whatever his next managerial role was. Warbs, surprisingly, and I suspect of great regret to himself given how his career has gone since, took a leftfield turn into an assistant’s job alongside David Moyes leaving Eustace to sort himself out.

All very QPR indeed. You get some cohesive, constructive, succession planning in place, the guy turns down other very presentable jobs to bide his time and work with you, everybody at the club likes and rates him and his references are impeccable, but you lose a few games amidst an injury crisis that kills off five different goalkeepers, fall out with the manager over him telling you some home truths about how good your academy players and coaching staff are, and you decide to bomb them all out. Let’s appoint Mick Beale instead, give him everything he wants, and then have him leave for Glasgow Rangers. When we talk about Beale’s infidelity, and people showing loyalty or otherwise to QPR, we should probably remember how we treated Eustace that summer.

Left high and dry, Eustace was then picked up by Birmingham where he took an unfancied and unfashionable side to sixth in the league before being sacked by monied owners because they wanted their rich American friends to be able to talk to Wayne Rooney in the bar afterwards, not John from Solihull. A nonsense, bullshit move up there with Birmingham’s previous sacking of Gary Rowett while sixth in the league in favour of Gianfranco Zola. That time they escaped relegation, this time they didn’t, and with that collapse came another default furthering of Eustace’s reputation. He slipped seamlessly into the same role at Blackburn.

At the start of 2024/25, not for the first time, I fancied Blackburn for relegation. I fancied them for relegation for all the reasons I fancied them for relegation this year, and the year before that, and the year before that. With their budget, their spend, the way their club is run, their playing roster, their half empty stadium, THEIR OWNER... just the stench of death around them… you go down eventually. Derby did, Sheff Wed did, Blackburn will. The Championship podcasts disagreed to a man in their season preview because John Eustace was the manager. Eustace means you’ll be fine, in the same way Gary Rowett means you’ll be fine. But, look, he’s not a soothsayer is he? I listen to Eustace in pre- and post-match interviews and think… really? It’s this guy who’s inspiring you?

I tipped Blackburn for the drop regardless. They were sixth in the league when Eustace eventually walked out on them for, well for all the reasons I said they’d finish in the bottom three. Like Jon Dahl Tomasson before him there’s only so long you can stand working for the Venkys. But Eustace got that team functioning well. He got them sixth. As at Birmingham he ignored the outside noise, he got a small group of players together, focused on hard work and a common bond, and led a team and club that had no right to a top six place off into the play-off picture. I don’t know, maybe he is special.

When his first game in charge of Derby ended with a harsh beasting up the coal hole at QPR – Marti Cifuentes’ team won 4-0 and left plenty out there unclaimed – I saw no way the Rams stayed up. They’d already lost seven and drawn two of nine in the league as well as going out of the cup at Leyton Orient, they still had two more defeats to nil to come before they got a point on the board. But, sure enough, a win against Blackburn (because of course), another against Coventry, then Plymouth, then Preston. They drew with free-scoring Burnley, beat West Brom and Hull away, got a result at Fratton Park. And survived. John does it again. Maybe he is some sort of Messiah? Bloody well hope so, might stop that part of the world banging on about "Cloughie" for ten minutes.

So, look, I drunk the Kool-Aid this summer when writing the season preview. Derby spending money. Derby signing Lewis Travis. Derby spending £6m on Patrick Agyemang (not that one). Carlton Morris is here. Owen Beck, who QPR have had a nibble at (not like that, Osmajic, Jesus mate) a few times, and would make a terrific left back for us, was picked up. They brought in 13 players in the end, lots Eustace had worked with before – no surprise to see Deon Sanderson in the crowd – and it became clear why he’d been so keen to move back to the club he represented as a player. I toyed with Derby as a top ten prediction, eventually placing them healthy midtable and significant improvement. Because, it’s John Eustace, right? Apparently some sort of Championship managerial demi-God.

We arrive at Pride Park tomorrow in interesting times. Derby got the squad strengthening and calibre of player they craved. Eustace got the backing from a board he’d desperately wanted at St Andrew’s and Ewood Park. And, so far, they’ve got worse. Just two wins, 11 points, sixth bottom. Twice they’ve come through tricksy spells into a game that was meant to kickstart their season, twice they’ve lost that game 1-0 – at home to Preston and away to Oxford. They breathed some life into themselves with a midweek 1-0 victory against Norwich, but they got absolutely pasted in the first half of that game and likely only won in the end because Norwich currently need a sat nav to find their own nipples. It's been eight games since Derby scored more than one in a game - and they didn't win that one.

It is that balance of expectation and possession thing again. When Birmingham are shit, Blackburn’s owners are terrible, and Derby are surely destined for relegation, John Eustace does important work. He picks five or six key, senior players and gets them together in a little core group, he adds a few trinkets around the side of that, he plays really pragmatic football, and when teams turn up expecting to win he feasts on the goo within. When you’re the team spending money, pulling 30,000+ at home, signing players like Travis, Agyemang etc, then expectations go up, and the pressure is a different kind of hell. The win they did get, against the Canaries on Tuesday, came with 34% possession.

QPR, as we know, are very similar. Their last nine wins have all come when having less of the ball. The last 12 times they’ve had more of it, they’ve failed to win. Everything was fine at Swansea on Wednesday night, Rangers were 1-0 up and playing reasonably well, until Swansea went down to ten men and the dynamics of the game changed. Could easily have ended up 1-1. QPR were really good at Bristol City away. Against Oxford at home… not so much. When we’re expected to win, when we’re meant to go out and dominate the ball, when we’re not the underdog, we struggle a bit.

I was super confident in South Wales on Wednesday night and got the match preview prediction right as a result. I’m not sure if I am as much tomorrow, and I think there’s a bit more to that than just John Eustace. Not least it’s ‘away fatigued’ game three of a three game week again. That didn’t work out too badly at Bristol City, but then we always win there.

We used to always win here too. Fingers crossed.

Links >>> Derby’s stuttering start – Oppo Profile >>> Bowles’ Baseball Ground riot – History >>> Bell in charge – Referee >>> Official Website >>> Derby Telegraph — Local Press >>> Derby County Blog — Contributor’s blog >>> DCFCFans — Forum >>> Ground Guide – Pride Park

Below the fold

Team News: Ilias Chair got 20 minutes off the bench at Swansea as he continues his rehabilitation, and played really very well indeed despite a bad missed chance in a one on one situation so he’ll be pushing for more minutes. Kwame Poku though is still some way off, which is a bit strange given the upbeat prognosis about his injury back in August but not really a surprise to anybody who saw him do it. He will play for the development squad against Cardiff at Hanwell this evening. Jake Clarke-Salter isn’t involved in that after only lasting half an hour of the second string’s last game against Bournemouth – he will allegedly return to training again next week. One player it seems certainly won’t be involved is Rayan Kolli who travelled to Swansea on Wednesday without even being named on the bench, and was then named in the development team on Friday.

Derby have had to bide their time for big money summer purchase Patrick Agyemang (not that one) to recover from a hernia operation, but he has three assists and a goal in his four appearances so far. The problems are now in midfield where the hero of this fixture last season Ebou Adams is missing this Saturday and the ever influential/whinging Lewis Travis has a calf injury. John Eustace must figure out who to partner in the middle with David Ozoh, but does have Norwegian defender Sondre Langas back after his first minutes of the campaign against Norwich during the week and he makes a huge difference to the Rams when he plays.

Elsewhere: No surprise and long overdue, but Sheff Wed were finally placed into administration this morning which will see them docked 12 points automatically and sink to the bottom of the league on -6, 13 points away from Blackburn who are second bottom. People will lose their jobs, creditors will be forced to settle for a percentage in the pound, but it does finally relinquish Derek Chansiri’s chokehold on the club and staff at Hillsborough got straight to work this morning removing his name from the seats in the North Stand. Whatever a rebuild looks like there, and however long it takes, it starts with tomorrow’s homer against Oxford. Fans have sold the stadium out and flooded the club shop with shirt orders having organised to starve the tumour out of their club. Could be a special day.

On the other side of the city Chris Wilder said he and his players are still getting to know each other after the midweek win at Blackburn, which feels like a bit of a stretch given there was only about 20 minutes between his second and third spells in charge, but that is now two wins in a row for the Blades and three from five since they reversed Wilder’s summer sacking. They were 2-0 up tonight at Preston and it felt like the three points against Sheff U promotional voucher has expired... Until Preston roared back and won 3-2. It is a thoroughly bizarre league this year.

The Saturday lunchtime games feature Coventry, unbeaten in a club record 11 games to start the season and scoring 31 goals in the process, at home to Watford. Ipswich, who were expected to lay waste to the Championship in similar fashion but last again in the week at home to newly promoted Charlton, host West Brom at Portman Road.

The afternoon kick offs aside from our own feature Blackburn who have no sunk to second bottom of the league and look good for a trip to League One at this stage, hosting Southampton who for all their resources and wherewithal are also in the bottom half of the table with just two wins to their name. You wouldn’t imagine Will Still will last much longer with that direction of travel, and expect the jungle drums to start around Marti Cifuentes soon too, particularly with Leicester facing a daunting trip to third-placed Millwall. Liam Manning is already on his last legs at Norwich who visit Swanselona.

Two of the early play-off picture’s surprise entrants, Hull and Charlton, face off in East Yorkshire with Bristol City at home to Birmingham, Middlesbrough at home to Wrexham and Stoke at Portsmouth waiting to capitalise on dropped points there.

Referee: Fast tracked referee Elliot Bell, on his second season on the Championship list, takes QPR for the second time and Derby the third. He was in charge of the R’s 3-1 win at Oxford last April. Details.

Form

- Since losing 7-1 at Coventry, QPR have won five of their eight league games, taking 17 points – only Coventry (18) have picked up more Championship points in that time. Rangers’ only defeat in that time was last weekend’s 2-1 homer against third placed Millwall.

- QPR have won six of their nine away games since the start of April, drawing one of the other three. Nobody in the Championship has won on the road as often during that period. It’s as many wins as they achieved in their previous 25 away games (D8 L11).

- Weirdly, that’s been achieved with the worst away defence in the league (12 conceded) although of course seven of those came in one game.

- QPR have ten more points than at this point last season.

- Derby beat Norwich 1-0 at Pride Park during the week, a game in which the Rams had 34% of the possession and a first half in which Norwich had nine corners while the Rams had zero shots on target. It was a first win in six Championship games and just a second league win of the season for John Eustace’s men.

- Derby have won only one of their last nine league games at home.

- Conversely, Derby are now unbeaten in three at Pride Park and after losing the first two games of the season to high flying Stoke and Coventry have only lost two of nine since. Answer – lots of draws, three of the last five and five of the last nine in the league.

- Derby have the lowest xG in the Championship - 9.69. They have only scored more than once in a game on two occasions, and only took one point from those games – a 2-2 at Ipswich and 3-5 home loss to Coventry. The Rams have scored one goal or fewer in each of their last seven.

- Both top scorers for these sides have four goals – Carlton Morris for Derby, although having scored in each of his first four appearances he now hasn’t netted in seven, and Richard Kone for QPR, although similarly he scored in each of his first three apps for the club and then one in the next six.

- Derby won this fixture comfortably last season, two goals with two in a minute from Curtis Nelson and Marcus Harness. Rangers avenged that with a 4-0 Valentine’s Day massacre at Loftus Road and the R’s have won three of the last four meetings and five of the last seven.

- QPR went unbeaten across their first six visits to Pride Park between 2004 and 2010 – winning three and drawing three. They then lost five games in a row here without scoring a goal but have now only lost one of the last four visits, winning two.

- Derby’s Patrick Agyemang has been involved in four of their last five league goals (one goal, three assists); since the start of September only Ryan Giles (five) has more Championship assists.

- Nicolas Madsen registered more ball recoveries than any player in the match between Swansea and QPR (ten).

- Rumarn Burrell is the first QPR player to score in two different away fixtures in Wales in the same season since another Jamaican Andre Gray (v Cardiff & Swansea) in 2021-22.

- Burrell’s goal in the week was assisted by fellow Jamaican international Isaac Hayden – his first official assist since 2019/20.

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews – we’ve had three new leaders of this year’s table in as many games and it’s JB007007 who goes into this week on top...

“Does anyone still get a QPR calendar for Christmas? Confession time. I'm 58 years old and I still buy (myself) one every year. Sure, I hang it up in the spare bedroom but I buy one nonetheless. I do wonder who decides which players are going to feature in which month. There seems to be very little logic to it. I was certainly glad to see the back of September this year with poor old Zan Celar staring out at me forlornly, only to find that, in a few days Lucas Andersen will appear as Mr November. Surely some mistake. The only surprise is that Lyndon Dykes and Sinclair Armstrong haven't shoehorned themselves in somehow.

“Last weekend, I thought that Varane and Vale had particularly poor games, and I was not surprised to see the changes that Stéphan made for the midweek game away to Swansea. Saturday's game also showed that Frey and Kone cannot play together and restoring Burrell to the starting XI against the Swans seemed like an obvious choice. Another positive was the return of Ilias Chair to the bench. I have not seen the Swansea match, bar a few minutes of highlights, but the consensus seems to be that Madsen had another excellent game and that Chair made a difference when he was introduced with about twenty minutes to go.

“For the Derby game, I am expecting RND to return to the left back role and Morrisson to possibly replace Steve Cook at centre back (three game week and all that.) I would start with Hayden over Varane in the centre, and Madsen seems undroppable (is that a word? It is now!) Derby beat Norwich 1-0 on Tuesday with less than 34 per cent possession and we need to be wary of that. We have had some of our worst results when we have dominated possession but failed to score.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: Derby 1-0 QPR. No scorer.

LFW’s Prediction: Derby 1-1 QPR. Scorer – Richard Kone

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Pictures - Reuters Connect

gazza1 added 09:22 - Oct 25 Christ, how you get all that detail together I do not know Norf...well done though. Enjoy the game. Anyways, I think RND (providing he is fit) will return despite Field's decent performance at Swansea, not so sure about Cook being rested for Morrison. Again, Chair who do very well when he entered play, will be on the bench again. Interesting will be if he continues with Hayden but I expect him to. Got a chance of three points but it will not be easy one little bit.....however if we strike well (take our chances, including half chances) we should win

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TacticalR added 12:54 - Oct 25 Thanks for your preview. I wonder what might have been if we had appointed Eustace? Presumably nothing like the ups and downs we actually did have. As you point out he got two perennially crisis-stricken teams (Birmingham and Blackburn) into the top six, so it made sense to assume that he would do well at Derby this season. The strange thing mentioned in the oppo profile is that Eustace wanted to play all four of his strikers at the same time against Oxford (too many toys?). The question is: was Derby's midweek result against Norwich a blip, or the sign of Eustace stabilising things? At least with Kone and Burrell we have some firepower of our own.

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