Our new betting pudit Andy Hillman, who will be joining Brian Power in the weekly betting challenge this season, offers his thoughts on where the value lies across the entire season.

Having had a look around the market for the coming season, I believe that the following bets either offer the best value in terms of return against risk, or are fairly interesting. Your opinions may obviously differ, but personally, these are the bets that I like the look of:

Premiership

The two stand out bets for the outright Premiership winner to me look like Man U @3.8, and Arsenal @7.6. Man Utd seem ridiculously overpriced when you compare them to Chelsea @2.8. That’s nearly 4 times your money back for Man Utd to win the league! Even though they have made very few notable acquisitions during the transfer window, it’s still bloody Man Utd, and they’ll be there or thereabouts at the end of the league. Arsenal @7.6 offers a very good trading out opportunity. Personally, I don’t think they’ll win it. But they always start very strongly, and they’ll be in the hunt towards the end of the season. For that reason alone, their odds will begin to fall, and this could present you with the opportunity to cash out before they fade away. As mentioned above, I don’t see much value in Chelsea @2.8, there’s not enough return on your investment there. Man City are priced @6.4, but I just don’t see them challenging Chelsea or Man U – for every spanking of Liverpool, I can see them drawing with Stoke and the like.

Finally, Tottenham are currently priced at 42’s. Like Arsenal, they almost certainly won’t win it. But if Harry can keep the Spurs squad in the hunt, come January those odds will have dropped off significantly, and a trade out for a healthy profit would be advisable. On the subject of Spurs, in the Top 4 market, you can get 4.1 for Spurs to finish in the Champions League spots again.

There is an interesting market for who will be top at the end of August. That’s only three games in, so you’re looking for teams that will have maximum points at this point. There are two stand-out bets for this Arsenal @8.8, and Chelsea @2.32. Arsenal’s run is Liverpool Away, Blackpool home and Blackburn away. The Liverpool match is the one that has made the odds sky rocket, and I can honestly see Arsenal getting a win at Anfield – Liverpool are not that good, and it’s going to take a while for Woy to work his magic. Assuming they win at Anfield, the other two are straight forward, and a thumping of Blackpool could put them top on goal difference. The return of nearly 9 times your stake total makes this one tempting. The other bet, Chelsea @2.32 is on the basis that West Brom home, Wigan away and Stoke home is another guaranteed nine points.

One of the other interesting markets to look at is the handicap winner market. Essentially, each club is given a handicap, ranging from zero for the best team (in this case Chelsea) all the way down to Blackpool with a massive 52 point handicap. At the end of the season, whatever point the clubs have achieved, the handicap points are then added on top, and the table recalculated. So in theory if Chelsea get 90 (+0) points in the league, Blackpool need to achieve 39 (+52) points to finish above them in the handicap league. With this in mind, the winner in the handicap league is usually the team that performs above expectations. The great advantage of the handicap league is that the odds are significantly bigger than the straight to win market. For example, Man Utd have a two point handicap advantage on Chelsea, and they are at 30’s to win the handicap league – meaning that if they win the league, which is entirely possible, you could be picking up money on them at 30’s instead of 3.8 mentioned above. The second team to look at are Spurs, with a 17 point handicap. Meaning that if Spurs get anywhere near 75 points, they could win the handicap league. You can currently get spurs at 18’s for the handicap title.

Finally, at the other end of the table, there is not a lot to pick at in the relegation market. The obvious candidates – Blackpool and West Brom are at 1.28 and 2.02 respectively – meaning that in Blackpool’s case for every tenner you stake, you make a profit of only £2.82! There is therefore very little value in betting on these, despite the fact that they are both almost nailed on for relegation. The one bet that does stand out as fairly good value is Wigan @3.3 to be relegated, although there is quite a bit of competition for the third relegation spot, so this has an element of risk about it.

Championship

In what is fairly universally acknowledged as a pretty poor league this season there are very few bets that stand out in the Winners marker. The two favourites for the title, Middlesbrough and Notts Forest are at 7’s and 9’s respectively. If you fancy a bet on QPR after Taarabt’s signing, we’re currently @13.5, 4th favourite behind the above two and Burnley.

In the top goalscorer market, Kris Boyd is way out in front at 6.4 – he’s a goal machine in Scotland, but will he be able to translate that into the Championship? Two much better bets are Chopra and Maynard, at 16’s and 12’s respectively, both proven at this level, and both 20 goal a season strikers. QPR’s sole representative in the leading scorer stakes is Helguson, available at 70’s if you’re interested?!

In the Handicap League, the traditional tightness and bookies not knowing much about the Championship means that the handicap bonus points is spread very thin – the worst team in the league (Scunthorpe) have only a 33 point handicap bonus, however it is normally the case that the top team in the league scores circa 70 points more than the bottom team! With that in mind, Forest with a two point handicap bonus are at 28’s, so if you think they’re going to win the league, go for this bet as opposed to the straight winner’s market. QPR are at 28’s as well, but with only a five point handicap bonus, meaning that they will have to finish within two points of Forest, and probably around 90-95 points to win the handicap league…

At the other end of the table, Scunthorpe are favourites for the relegation market @2.04, so there’s not an awful lot of value there. Portsmouth are second favourites @2.52, and if they get hit with a suspected points deduction they could be doomed. Millwall are at 6’s, which represents the best value around, although if you take for granted that Scunny and Pompey are down, there are a lot of teams fighting for that last relegation spot.

Finally, if you’re feeling pessimistic about QPR’s chances this season, we’re currently @13.5 for the drop.

League 1

Saints are considered massive favourites in the straight winners market, currently priced around 3.2. Second favourites, and my actual pick are the much better priced Sheffield Wednesday, who are priced at 7.2. if Swindon can continue where they left off last season, and if Austin continues scoring for them, they are well priced at 25’s, and represent a good trading out opportunity towards the end of the end of the season, as their odds will come in massively if they stay around the top of the table.

In terms of top goal scorer, the bookies have placed Lambert as massive favourite at 4.1, I think that is the shortest odds of any player in any of the leagues. I’m a big fan of Clinton Morrison who is currently at 11’s, and the afore mentioned Charlie Austin is currently at 15’s.

Finally

I get emailed about twice a week from a company that wants me to subscribe to their betting service at a cost of something like £100 a season. As a tempter, they have provided these free statistics to consider when betting, which I pass onto you:

• Arsenal wins most corners in a match 89% of the time at home, or 17/19 home games – back Arsenal to win most corners in a match at home.

• Fulham get under 3.5 cards in a match 84% of the time at home, or 16/19 home games – back under 3.5 bookings a game for Fulham at home.

• Liverpool score first at home 84% of the time, or 16/19 on home games – back Liverpool to score first.

• Aston Villa get 11 corners in a game 82% of the time – 31/38 games both home and away. Back Aston Villa to get over 10.5 corners in a match, both home and away

Photo: Action Images via Reuters

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