Birmingham City, and their collection of former QPR players, come to Loftus Road this evening hoping to improve one of the division’s poorer away records.

QPR (8-4-7 LDWWLW 10th) v Birmingham (8-4-7 WLWDWL 8th)

Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Tuesday December 9, 2025 >>> Kick Off 20.00 >>> Weather – Storm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

In an effort to show just how likely it is Coventry City convert their nine-point gap to third into a first Premier League campaign for more than a quarter of a century, Sky recently whacked up a graphic that showed the last ten leaders of the division after 15 games and what subsequently happened to them.

Sunderland were top with 31 points last season and were eventually promoted from fourth. The year before Leicester led the table and saw it through as champions. In fact everybody on the list ended up promoted: Bournemouth 21/22, West Brom 19/20 and Sheff Utd 18/19 as runners up; Norwich 20/21, Wolves 17/18 and Newcastle 16/17 as champions. All, that is, except one. In 2022/23 QPR were top of the league after 15 games and won only five more matches for the rest of the season, eventually finishing 20th and staying up courtesy only of winning their last two away games at Stoke and, improbably, Burnley. You R’s.

The second tier hadn’t seen a collapse like it since 1995/96 when Millwall were top on December 1 and finished up relegated after Mick McCarthy left them to take over as Republic of Ireland boss. The Lions won four of their last 30 games and were relegated on the final day at Ipswich. QPR, who also won only four of the last 30 games, weren’t far off repeating the feat. At one point they lost nine of ten games, and went into the Burnley match with two wins from 27 fixtures.

It was a collapse precipitated by Mick Beale’s decision to jump ship for Glasgow Rangers, just weeks after joining QPR and inviting a whole load of players he had a prior connection with to join him on his “you versus yourself” journey, and a matter of days after he’d turned down Wolves and given a big speech about the importance of loyalty and not walking away after asking so many people to buy into his project. But, while it may be easy to blame the whole thing on Beale, that was also a disaster a couple of years in the making with many of the ingredients laid out before he got here.

After years of prudence, QPR responded to a hot run of form in empty Covid stadiums by permanently signing all the loan players who powered it. That included Charlie Austin, well past his peak by this point sadly, and Stefan Johansen, who both got chunky contracts. QPR abandoned their development model, openly saying none of the Dieng/Dickie/Chair/Willock types they now possessed would be allowed to leave. Deals were handed out to the likes of Moses Odubajo and Lee Wallace, Andre Gray came in on loan, Jimmy Dunne was bought from Burnley, Jordy De Wijs from Hull. For a while it looked like a play-off push may materialise, Rangers were pushing second in January, but they faded badly to 11th and fired Mark Warburton in the final week of the season. Instead of cutting the cloth accordingly, Beale was allowed to spend again while at the same time being promised none of his key assets would be sold. Having doubled down, Rangers had nowhere to go financially when Beale jumped ship leaving behind a whole load of deficient, delinquent players who were only here for him and not very good in the first place.

To look at the squad inherited by Gareth Ainsworth, and the one he in turn left behind for Marti Cifuentes, would be to behold the personification of a mismanaged football club. Leon Balogun, back from a winter sabbatical to concede a game-costing penalty at Wigan, cupping his ear to the away end at full time then demanding a meeting with supporters to explain himself where he said the perception he was just waiting to bounce back to Glasgow with Beale was untrue – shortly before he bounced back to Glasgow with Beale. Players feigning injury, players phoning it in, Tyler fucking Roberts, it was an absolute shuttle crash.

There was one club out there, however, casting admiring glances. As QPR doubled down and down again, digging themselves further into the financial mire, saddling themselves with surly little twats like Roberts or good time guys like Ethan Laird, Birmingham City were looking on thinking ‘these guys are making all the right moves’.

It’s widely, and correctly, assumed that Birmingham’s shock relegation from the Championship in the first year of Knighthead’s ownership was largely due to the American owners' starry eyed decision to ditch functional John Eustace (himself a former QPR coach) and bring in Wayne ‘Wazza’ Rooney. They seemed to know it themselves pretty quickly – “I’m not sure about our coach’s work ethic” said Tom Brady into the camera after watching a fairly obviously hungover Rooney deliver a brief summary of Blues’ offside trap, “if they play the ball into him we’ll just fucking go and smash him” – but it was a move of such hubris that nothing they did after that could correct the course away from League One.

Under the radar, though, Blues also signed Andre Dozzell from us that January – now third bottom of the league again with Portsmouth. That on top of adding Laird and Roberts to their squad in the summer. Not only shopping at a supermarket very clearly on fire, but taking some of the biggest problem children most responsible for the blaze. Dion Sanderson is it, getting stupidly sent off? Meathead. No wonder they went down. On top of that they’ve since paid £1m+ for the centre forward from that side – Lyndon the Amazing Non-Scoring Striker.

Still they come. Bright Osayi-Samuel, I hear you’re a full back now father, and Jack Robinson, so far leaving exactly the impression on Birmingham fans as he does everywhere else he goes. It is absolutely remarkable to me, as someone that has watched effectively every QPR game for the last ten years, that anybody would be interested in signing any players at all from that era, bar exceptions like Ebere Eze and Alex Smithies, and yet Birmingham are hanging round our yard whether we’re having a sale or not. We could have done with this lot a decade ago, I reckon we might even have been able to persuade them on Shaun Wright-Phillips.

Would it surprise you to hear Laird is out with a hamstring problem tonight? Or that Top Knot Tyler has managed just eight starts and three goals for Mansfield this year, after one goal in 29 appearances for Northampton last? Would you be shocked to learn Birmingham are struggling to win away games?

Of course, would it also surprise you to see Lyndon Dykes score tonight? There’s a rumour he may get a rare start with Ducksch tiring in Saturday’s defeat to Southampton and having sat through the years of barren spells and the outrageous missed sitters, how typical it would be for him to have one of those nights he could occasionally produce back at Loftus Road this evening. Probably off a Jack Robinson long throw, just to rub it in.

We tipped Birmingham for the play-offs in our season preview and their home form is certainly moving in that direction. They’ve won the last four games at St Andrew’s, scoring four goals against each of Millwall, Norwich and Pompey. If they sort out results on the road they’ll move into a chaotic top six picture, which still includes Preston in fifth and Millwall third with a negative goal difference, double lively. Tonight would be a good opportunity for them to do that.

But it’s also a chance for QPR as well. Just two points shy of the play-offs, they’ve beaten two similar teams in Hull and West Brom here in the last two outings, scoring three on both occasions. They have the division’s form striker in Rumarn Burrell, who can become Championship top scorer this season with a ninth goal in 11 appearances tonight. This looks a more difficult game than the weekend, but Blues have an almost identical record to the Baggies and a similar weak spot – i.e. they can’t win away. If QPR dispatch them with the ease they did Ryan Mason’s side that’ll be a statement piece of our own.

Intriguing night. We’ll know a lot more about where we are as a team this season come 10pm.

Links >>> Home and away – Oppo Profile >>> Magnificent Marsh – History >>> Bell in charge – Referee >>> Birmingham City official website >>> St Andrew’s — Ground Guide >>> Small Heath Alliance — Message Board >>> We Are Birmingham — Podcast >>> Birmingham Mail — Local Press

Below the fold

Team News: At the back, potential problems on the left side. Jake Clarke-Salter did 70+ minutes at the weekend and looked pretty knackered doing it by the end so one would think he’s unlikely to be starting tonight. The club have also been managing Rhys Norrington-Davies’ fitness and he rarely plays back-to-back in these three game weeks. With Sam Field nursing a groin problem and Esquerdinha recently away for family reasons it leaves left back and left centre back options potentially thin on the ground. Further forward we await news on Ilias Chair’s latest injury, just as he seemed to be playing his way into form and fitness, though we are at least not short of options in his position. Rayan Kolli isn’t one of them, however – another month-long absence coming up due to injury, according to Julien Stephan. Ben Hamer is meant to be back for this one, so an interesting decision to be made in goal where Paul Nardi had his best game of the season on Saturday.

Alex Cochrane picked up an injury in Birmingham’s defeat at Southampton at the weekend which means local favourite Jack Robinson could make a start at left back. There’ll be no Loftus Road return for Ethan Laird, however, because he has, wait for it…, done his hamstring. Lee Buchanan, Scott Wright and Willum Willumsson are long term Blues absentees.

Elsewhere: That bore draw at Sheffield United so many of us got a bit uppity about is starting to look like a better and better result with each passing week. The Blades have since won four in a row scoring at least three goals in each of them and pumped high flying Stoke 4-0 at Bramall Lane at the weekend. A serious test for struggling Norwich and their new manager Philippe Clement this evening then.

Southampton are also starting to motor with five wins from six games and have confirmed caretaker manager Tonda Eckert in the role permanently as a result. The Saints are swapping fixtures with us this week and having slayed Birmingham at the weekend should be confident of something similar against West Brom who lost on the road for the sixth successive away game at Loftus Road on Saturday.

A pair of awkward away games for the top two. Coventry felt Ipswich striker George Hirst shouldn’t have even been on the pitch to score on Saturday when the referee allowed him off with a warning for booting the ball away having only just booked Josh Eccles for the same thing, but a 3-0 loss at Portman Road is still the worst result of the season for the league leaders and they could have easier follow ups to that than a Tuesday night in Preston. Middlesbrough, meanwhile, have won two from two and scored six goals doing it under new boss Kim Hellberg – 4-0 up by half time at Hull on Friday – but it’s a long slog down to Nathan Jones’ Charlton for them this midweek.

A couple of big six pointers at the bottom end. Blackburn (19th) will just be glad to get through their home game with Oxford (21st) played through to a conclusion having had a second home game of the season abandoned with the score at 1-0 in Rovers’ favour at the weekend. Ipswich equalised in the last minute of the first rearranged game, if Sheff Wed do the same it’ll be difficult to shake the idea Blackburn’s relegation might be written. Valerian Ismael says he’s happy to give up whatever meagre budget the Venky’s had planned for his January in return for pitch works that will get Ewood Park through a northern winter.

Swansea in 20th play Portsmouth in 22nd and Tuesday is rounded out with Watford at home to Sheff Wed.

Having been three goals down before half time at home to Sheff Utd the week before, Leicester handed out a 24 inch Chicago Town deep dicking of their own at Derby on Saturday. Marti Cifuentes’ side were three up before half time themselves at Pride Park and now head to Bristol City where Cifuentes took four points from a possible six during his time at QPR.

If Coventry and Boro do slip up in their Tuesday games then third placed Millwall (three wins on the spin) can capitalise on their own trip to Derby, and/or Ipswich can climb from fourth with a home win against Stoke. Just to sum up the chaos of the Championship table at this time of year, Millwall are currently third with a -2 goal difference.

Hull and Wrexham completes the midweek list – Phil Parkinson facing his former club on the EFL’s current longest unbeaten run (nine games).

Referee: For the second midweek round in a row at Loftus Road, following last month’s 2-1 loss to Southampton, it’s young Sheffield referee James Bell in charge tonight. Details.

Form

- Despite the aberration at struggling Norwich, QPR have climbed back to within two points of the play offs with three wins from the last four games. Rangers have also gone from no wins in four home games to successive victories against Hull and West Brom in which they’ve scored three goals both times.

- For the second time in as many games, QPR come face to face with an opponent on an identical record. West Brom were 7-4-7 at the weekend and Birmingham are 8-4-7 tonight. Chris Davies’ side have a goal difference of +5 to our -4 which means they’re eighth and Rangers are tenth.

- Like West Brom, who made it six away defeats in a row at Loftus Road at the weekend, Birmingham are doing much of their heavy lifting at home. Blue have won 20 of their 28 points at St Andrew’s and have now won one of their last nine aways and none of the last five. Only Watford have won a lower percentage of their points away. The two victories on the road have come at Blackburn (2-1) and Preston (1-0).

- Rumarn Burrell now has nine league goals for the season and eight in his last ten outings for QPR. Burrell is the first Rangers player to score 9+ goals in his first 20 games for the club since Charlie Austin in 2013 (ten). Burrell is also the first R;s player to score eight league goals across a ten-game streak since Austin in September 2015. Only Erling Haaland (23) and Bromley’s Michael Cheek (21) has scored more league goals in the league in 2025 than Burrell (20 goals – nine for QPR, 11 for Burton).

- Birmingham have scored 17 goals in their last seven Championship games. No team has scored more in the EFL since the start of November. However, only Portsmouth (six) have scored fewer away from home than Brum (seven). Jay Stansfield is top scorer here with nine (eight in the league).

- Birmingham have the lowest xG against in the league – 16.09.

- QPR have lost just two of their past 11 home league games against Birmingham (W6 D3), going down 4-3 in February 2019 and 1-0 in March 2023. Birmingham have won two of their past four league games against QPR (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 (D4 L7).

- QPR have won five of their past six league games against promoted sides (L1), winning each of the previous three by a 3-1 scoreline.

- Birmingham have lost just one of their past 20 midweek league games (W15 D4) - 3-1 at Bolton in March.

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews –it’s JB007007 still leading this year’s pack by four points after the weekend...

“I was watching a Kevin Bridges routine the other day about his friends’ tendency to make him play "guess how much?" and I can only conclude we move in similar circles. For example, they'll say "we were in Camden last week, and we went into a pub and ordered two gin and tonics. Guess how much we paid?" Of course the correct thing to do here is to seriously overestimate the cost in order to take the wind out of their sails. "I dunno, eighty quid?" That soon shuts them up. For some reason people always seem to be asking me to guess things. Guess how old Debbie Harry is now? Guess who I saw in Sainsburys this morning? Next I expect that someone will be wanting me to guess what the QPR score might be and who I think will score the first goal.

“I thought the first half of Saturday's game was played in quite a strange, subdued atmosphere. About a minute before Varane scored I was expecting West Brom to hit us with an undeserved sucker punch, but fortunately they hadn't read the script. The second half was much more entertaining and, if Burrell had made it 3-0 instead of firing over the bar, I think that would have been game over. Instead, we had to endure a potential West Brom fightback and a ridiculous refereeing performance before we made the game safe.

“If we can win against Birmingham at Loftus Road on Tuesday, everyone will be checking their calendars for the play-off final dates. Lose and we will probably be looking at 16th place again, the Championship is that tight at the moment. Will Stephan start with a similar team on Tuesday? It looks like Chair will be out and there are decisions to be made on whether RND and JCS can play another game so quickly but, apart from that, the other eight should start. Birmingham are level on points with Rangers but have a better goal difference. The majority of their points have come at home with a mere 8 gained on the road. It would be very QPR to lose this game but I'm going to be positive and predict another narrow victory.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: QPR 2-1 Birmingham. Scorer – Koki Saito

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Birmingham. Scorer – Rumarn Burrell

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Pictures - Ian Randall Photography

extratimeR added 13:07 - Dec 9 God, all that stuff seems a lifetime ago! ( But perfectly normal behaviour at QPR!) I'm convinced you can get 20 points if you can just play people at the right time! Southampton earlier, Shef Weds now, Shef United a week earlier ( 3 points?) etc Worrying about back four tonight, Jake Def keeps balance in back four with left-foot Cheers Clive!
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TacticalR added 18:50 - Dec 9 Thanks for your preview. That's quite a rogues' gallery of ex-QPR players that Birmingham have picked up. According to Matthew in the oppo profile even Bright is not playing that well. Yet somehow Birmingham are close to the play-offs. I suppose the questions are: 1) are we playing home Birmingham or away Birmingham? and 2) is early season Kone back?
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