Its Still Two Point Per Game Target !
Monday, 21st Nov 2011 09:23
After Saturday's win Saints fans are starting to believe that promotion is realisitc rathan than a pipedream, so what do we need to do ?
Obviuosly the number of points needed for promotion from this division is not an exact science, so all team like ourselves who harbour hopes of promotion can do is set themselves targets and look to keep achieving them.
A look back over the past ten seasons in the Championship(and whatever it was called before) reveals that the winners of the division have registered as low as 81 points and as high as 106 to finish on top of the pile, usually though its a figure between 90-95 .
For that second automatic promotion spot its just as variable, it has been as low as 79 points and as high as 92, but usually somewhere in the late 80's would make absolutely sure, however on three occasions it has needed in excess of that 90 point mark so perhaps this should be our target.
Before we look at what we need to do in the next five months, lets look where we are presently, with 39 points on the board we have averaged 2.3 per game from our 17 matches, this is of course far better than the two points per game target I suggested at the start of the season and of course Nigel Adkins has also mentioned.
Indeed to achieve that 90 point mark we need another 51 points from our remaining 29 games, to save you getting your calculators out its 1.76 per game, which is highly achievable.
In short if we win just under half of our remaining games we should go up automatically, as i said its not an exact science, but if we win 14, draw 9 and lose 6 of our remaining games then we will hit 90 points and that would hopefully see us home.
But we cant be complacent, there are some good teams in this division and to be blunt anyone down to Nottingham Forest in 17th place will harbour hopes of at least a play off place, pre season favourites Forest and Leicester with new managers will be looking for more, for Forest with a 20 point gap to make up on us it will be a tall order, but dont rule out Leicester, who now sit 14 behind us.
So Nigel Adkins job is to keep Saints focussedon that 2 points per game target and get those games needed to be won, won sooner than later and not allow any of the chasing pack a sniff of catching us.
With a run of extremely winnable games coming up, we could put ourselves in a great position come the new year, but we need to keep plugging away and make our rivals chances that much harder.
Realistically I would say there are five viable contenders for an automatic spot, apart from ourselves, West Ham obviously, Middlesbrough and to a lesser extent Cardiff cant be discounted at the moment as they are not that far behind us and as i mentioned Ii expect Leicester to start coming up fast on the rails, I do think though that come the end of the season it will come down to just three clubs for a top two spot and that is Saints, West Ham & Leicester.
As the season progresses the chasing pack will start to even itself out and the final points total needed willbecome clearer as will who is capable of getting it
There has been some talk on message boards of putting jinxes on if we start to talk of points needed etc, but I dont subscribe to this and neither wil Nigel Adkins, he will see it as essential that the team has a target and remains focussed on it, he will keep that target at two points per game, he wont dilute it down to only needing 1.76, he will keep the current aims, knowing that if we do go on a bad run, which every side does at some stage, he can tell his players that the new target still remains unchanged and that is the two points per game.
Photo: Action Images
Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.
You need to login in order to post your comments
Blogs 31 bloggers
Letters from Wiltshire #18 by wessex_exile
Trump has finally conceded defeat, albeit in a childlike, begrudging and typically ungracious manner, but at least things are moving on now, and hopefully the beginning of a new, less adversarial era in world affairs. There was an interesting article on one of the news websites this morning looking at how the transition for other administrations have gone – none as poorly (so far) as this, but still some amusing anecdotes nevertheless. Apparently, ahead of George W Bush taking up residence, the departing Clinton team went around the White House removing all the W’s from keyboards – very childish, but quite funny too…
Letters from Wiltshire #17 by wessex_exile
So I never actually imagined more than two weeks after the event that Trump and his attack-dog “Hot Mess” Giuliani would still be refusing to acknowledge that Biden has won the US Presidential election, but there you have it. Closer to home, we are just past halfway through our circuit-breaker 4-week lockdown, and most of the graphs suggest things are slowly improving, but nowhere near a rate that would see figures return to the pre-October levels. Much closer to home, Alfie has been in self-isolation for the last 14 days because one of his teachers tested positive – delighted to say we have both passed through that period without developing symptoms…and without killing each other either 😊
Letters from Wiltshire #16 by wessex_exile
Good morning everyone. Outside the football bubble, and across the pond, we have the soon to be ex-President of the United States walled up in his White House bunker, inexorably going through the Kübler-Ross 5 stages of grief…and in a particularly undignified and un-statesman like manner. Clearly we’ve had Denial by the bucket-load, Anger as he lashes out firing those he perceives as disloyal, Bargaining as his legal team try and force recounts of perfectly valid election results, and no doubt a huge amount of Depression as he sulked in silence for the best part of a week. Now perhaps, as he nearly slips up when eventually breaking radio silence to address the press, we see the beginnings of Acceptance. If I’m honest, I’d be quite happy for Trump to keep this up and make the transition as embarrassing as possible for himself and his supporters – and if the police could eventually drag him out of the White House in hand-cuffs, all the better.
Letters from Wiltshire #15 by wessex_exile
Well, there’s a turn up for the books, the mighty U’s unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by lowly Marine AFC, four tiers below us in the league pyramid. These things happen, and we’ve done it to others on more than a few occasions, but the manner of the result on Saturday is what rankles the most. Virtually our strongest line-up available, but the complete lack of any urgency right from the outset was dreadful to see. Even as we reached squeaky bum time into the 2nd half, having drawn level, still we ponderously passed aimless triangles in midfield for far too long. Someone has to pay for that debacle, so let’s hope it’s the auld enemy Southend tonight in the Pointless Trophy…
Letters from Wiltshire #14 by wessex_exile
Welcome to Lockdown #2, and as I write this blog, an as yet uncertain future with the orange loon threatening to refuse to hand over the keys to the White House and calling on all his white supremacist mates to rise up in arms. Moving on swiftly from chump to champ, Chairman Robbie has again addressed the U’s faithful, with another clear, concise statement on the current situation and how it may or may not affect Colchester United. I know in the past he hasn’t been everyone’s cup of tea, but I do think an awful lot of people are warming to him because of the leadership he has shown through this crisis, and long may it last!
[ Vote here ]