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Can Saints Now Target 10th Place ?
Can Saints Now Target 10th Place ?
Monday, 8th Apr 2013 08:35

As regular readers will know Im a cautious man who believes in achieving one target before moving on to the next, but can Saints now look to 10th place.

A third straight win was just what the doctor ordered for Saints worries about getting dragged into the relegation dog fight again and with other teams around us failing to pick up maximum points it could be a time now to consider what is and isnt achievable this season.

A week or so ago I said that before Saints looked for a top ten finish we should be nearer that position points wise than we were the bottom three and this weekend's fixtures have sorted the wheat from the chaf in that respect.  

Wigan and Sunderland lie six points behind us and both have to now be favourites for that third from bottom spot with QPR and Reading seemingly now only a matter of time from being mathematically certain of a return to the Championship.

Aston Villa could still join them, however their win at Stoke not only hauled them clear but kept Stoke looking over their shoulders, although they should be OK.

But for Saints now its a case of looking upwards and although tenth place isnt down to our own endeavors just yet if we keep winning it could be.

It will still be a tough ask, West Ham on level points with us and a game in hand will obviously fancy their own chances and in that respect next weeks game is a 10th place six pointer for us so to speak, but with only six games left the real task will be overtaking Fulham who are two points clear but with a game in hand, or Swansea who sit four ahead, although a win at the Liberty Stadium in two weeks will bring us within a point of them if we despatch West Ham as the Welsh club have no fixture this weekend due to the FA Cup semi finals.

Initially I though Swansea might be beyone us and indeed Fulham, but Swansea have a very difficult last six games, apart from us at home they have to travel to Chelsea and Man Utd plus Wigan who will be fighting for their lives, whilst at home they have Man City and then on the final day host Fulham.

The Cottagers have a tough run in as well in their last 7 games, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool all have to visit Craven Cottage, whilst away from home they go to Aston Villa on Saturday and then also have to go to Everton and as mentioned Swansea, perhaps there only easy tax will be Reading at home who by the time they play Fulham will almost certainly have been relegated.

So Saints can now start to look upwards, but the real question is how many games can we win in a row ? making it four would be ideal, but in our last six fixtures we will almost certainly need to get upwards of 11 points to even stand a chance and that is a big ask.

The win at Reading was methodical and it cant be denied that in recent weeks we have played well, but those who watched the full 90 minutes at the Madejski will also be very aware that defensively we were not all we should have been and that we could easily have been two down due to defensive error aligned with poor finishing and a superb stop from Artur Boruc.

This perhaps highlights why we have struggled for most of the season, we are still at least 4 players short of a truly mid table team and not having to look over our shoulders all the time, of course we will have the chance to put that right in the summer and hopefully we will, but for the time being we have an opportunity so we should try and take it.

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LennyJam added 09:00 - Apr 8
we will need to beat west ham (probably) which will be very very tough. they are a hard team to beat and we would have to win 4 in a row...which is unheard of in our parts
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slynch added 09:57 - Apr 8
Hey man! You ARE getting the optimistic bug! A glimmer of childlike enthusiasm, I like it. You're starting to judge the Saints on what you see and not on the past which has gone or some dull statistics or dodgy mathematical theories. With more positivity like that from you and from some of the more grumpy forum members, Saints can't fail. I said that Saints would win all their games till the end of the season, they have only failed me once since then (accidents will happen?). Encourage more positive thinking StNick and 10th will be no problem. Onwards and upwards!

West Ham - Pah!
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SaintinMalta added 10:03 - Apr 8
Glad to see you're finally starting to look up the table!!
Always enjoy reading your pieces, and whilst your are a fan of long standing, and consequently have endured many a relegation fight, I have got a little frustrated at times by articles about points targets regarding Premiership safety.
Like you I have been a Saints fan for many years (since 1965), and whilst the Runners-Up team of '84, and the cup winning side of '76 will forever be remembered, I am hard pushed to remember such a good Saints side as I have been watching in recent weeks - this is a seriously good side, and I am a little surprised that you (and others), have been just a little downbeat (i.e Looking down the table as of up) as regards our fate at the seasons end.
Pochettino, Cortese (Liebherr family), the Saints staff, and players of course, have given me more joy watching my team in the last couple of months, as they have done in the last fifty years!
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derbydog added 10:21 - Apr 8
Not something I've thought to mention too often up to now, but I backed Saints for a top ten finish before the season started at what I thought then was a generous 66-1. Only a fiver, but still.......
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Butty101 added 10:36 - Apr 8
Saint Malta - I look back at the 89-90 team fondly, i think we where only a couple signings away from having a title push. But the club didnt spend the money (as ever) and before you knew it we struggling again. The front four of letiss, rod wallace rideout and shearer was top notch.
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tiptop added 11:19 - Apr 8
Saints are improving and having a bit of luck(I think Yos would have had a penalty awarded against him for his challenge against Reading earlier in the season).
We have to aim up the table.
Fulham away to Villa looks like a draw. Fulham are in form but if Villa can win along with us beating W.Ham then it will def be on to push for 10th. As mentioned stats go against re winning four in a row but with the team growing in confidence and quality and Lallana looking sharp and a def starter im can dream.
Still getting 40 points will be the real target for me.
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1teeminants added 11:29 - Apr 8
Nick in your article a while back you said we needed 10 points to be safe i suggested we could easily finish mid table, i still feel the SAME.

Tip top ......jos's tackle was very good if you study it, he got the ball.
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SaintNick added 11:34 - Apr 8
I think Im pretty accurate about the points needed to stay up, however the difference is that we took six points from Liverpool and Chelsea, if we had lost to Chelsea for instance we would still be in relegation trouble, things are that tight at the moment,
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latviandream added 12:55 - Apr 8
Derbydog - I work in that industry. Best available price on a Saints top 10 pre-season was 10/1 (with Norwich & Swansea only falling GD short of this last season), I know because I backed it. We did drift as far as 66/1 after losing to West Brom to go 10 matches in with only 4 points, so maybe you have your timeline a little confused. Either way, good luck with the bet ;-)

Nick - Good article at a good time. I agree that you're spot on with those figures, 48 is the lowest total I can see 10th place getting, so we'd need at least 3 wins and 2 draws from these last 6 games. We cannot afford to lose any of the next 3 in particular due to them being against direct rivals for the 8th-10th spots.

All - One particular upside of the final day of the season is that Swansea play hosts to Fulham. With these sides being the most likely to be 9th/10th at the time, there is a possible scenario whereby if we are still 11th, and they are not both 2+pts (or either of them 3+pts) ahead of us we could know that a win against Stoke would get us there regardless of other results.

Buckle up gents, it's going to be tight (from 8th all the way down to 18th)!!
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simmo400 added 13:10 - Apr 8
We road are luck saturday and ran out good winners in the end. NA should have played the big centre forward Prognazic up front to cause us problems, big error NA, he never was clever with subs was he. Yes we need to try and win every game one at a time and were be fine. Swansea away win would accomplish a top ten i feel.
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bstokesaint added 13:20 - Apr 8
I'm kicking myself that I didn't put money on a top 10 finish when I really believed momentum from the previous season would help us achieve that position. Fair play Derbydog, hope you win that bet. I think you will.

I agree with some of the more optimistic posters that this is the best Saints' side I can remember in a very long time, maybe ever. Definitely potentially. Look at the age of our best players, they're all kids, except Lambert. If we can fend off the bigger clubs this team will only get better. We're still a little frail defensively, but if we sort that out I'll back us to go one place better than Strachan's team next season for our highest finish ever.

Decent manager check, decent academy check, decent fanbase check, decent financial backing check, decent board check, decent homegrow players check, decent average team age check. I think we have everything we need..
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bstokesaint added 13:22 - Apr 8
And we have 3-4 players linked with the national side. That doesn't happen very often.
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Scummer added 14:53 - Apr 8
It has been a very long time since Southampton has won four consecutive games in the top flight.

But if there is one thing that this squad has shown over the last couple of years, it is that they like to smash the hell out of those old records. Victory over West Ham would be a fantastic continuation of our form and anyway, we really should be higher up the table than they are! (IMHO)
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Whatsforpud added 15:56 - Apr 8
Nick don't understand the comment that we are four players short of a true mid-table side. We are perhaps a better centre back than Hooiveld short, and we might already have that in Forren. No one knows yet. If Hooiveld is one of the positions you are referring to, are there three others in the team that now need replacing? Or are you talking about cover?

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SaintNick50 added 16:44 - Apr 8
We ought to be targeting 8th place as we have to play West Brom at home as well and if we win that one we would only be 4 points adrift from them! Having said that we must concentrate on the next game v WHU and consolodate our current position to begin with. One game at a time, analyse then move on to the next.
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thingummy added 17:05 - Apr 8
we still need to stop the keystone cops impersonation that comes out at some point in every game amongst our centre backs (mostly) - the play that led to the la fondre miss was just dreadful

If we can stop those incidents, we look solid at worst and very inventive and hard working at best ...... still not a the standard of '84 but next year just might be interesting
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stmichael added 17:42 - Apr 8
4 players short of a mid table side???
This is already a top 8 side!
Man U man c arsenal Chelsea spurs Everton liverpoolr
are the only sides better than us and we are not far behind the Mersey clubs.
That's not rose tinted glasses either.
And if our World Cup Argentinian centre half is happy with jos then perhaps you should concede you are wrong on 2 counts.
Good article but not one I agree with nick.
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steve73 added 23:27 - Apr 8
I'm not overly bothered whether we finish 17th or 10th...aim as high as you can of course but the real test for the club is how it does it's business in the summer and how we start next season...this one has been a proverbial rollercoaster and we could quite easily still be in the bottom three had things panned out differently...delighted with current form and setup in general...if we get things right we could really achieve something special next season...feel Gaston will be sold at a loss but hope there is still sufficient investment in the areas we all know are needed to truly push on
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bstokesaint added 12:23 - Apr 9
Stmichael I'd argue based on the performances of the latter part of the season (after our rocky start) that we're already on a par with Everton and Liverpool. Both have a couple of players they rely on hugely for their results, whereas I think we have more quality throughout our team (in most positions). The Liverpool clubs will always be bigger with more history, but in terms of current first teams there's nothing much between us postion for position. West Brom and Swansea both made blistering starts to the season and have dropped away since. I don't see why we couldn't do that and then hang on in there. I don't generally tend to get too carried away as far as Southampton are concerned. I'll always try and stay upbeat if I can, but I am genuinely excited about this team and the way the club is being run. I'm sure Markus would be too.
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richardmdcooper added 15:23 - Apr 9
Agree with stmichael. we're clearly the 8th best team in the league and next season, we should be knocking on the door of everton and liverpool. Nick - I'm not sure I understand the 4 players we need to be a mid-table side?! Which 4 players would you replace? Maybe the two centre halves and maybe Boruc but that would be it in my opinion and if they get the signings right, that could push us into the top 7.

Still a lot that I don't like about cortese and the way he's treated certain ex-players and managers and I'm still not convinced on who sanctions the transfers but overall, this is an incredible time to be a saints fan
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