The Maths Are Simple ! Maintain our Points Per Game Ratio !
Wednesday, 27th Mar 2019 09:04
If Mark Hughes poor management left us in the lurch, then Ralph Hasenhuttl's has put us back on track and although nothing is guaranteed, Saints now need to just keep their current points per game average intact in the last 8 games.
The difference between Mark Hughes and Ralph Hasenhuttl's management at Saints is chalk and cheese in all departments, indeed it is hard to see Hughes managing in the Premier League again given the last two season's he has had with both Stoke& Saints.
This season the pre Hasenhuttl period spanned 15 games, exactly the same number that the Austrian has currently been in charge for, Hughes total if we include the game at Spur's with the caretaker management produced only 9 points, that is an average of 0.60 per game.
If that average had been continued then we would be sitting on 18 points and would potentially be facing relegation within the next fortnight, although the good news is that it would have been just enough to keep us above Fulham & Huddersfield.
Since the arrival of Ralph we have notched 21 points, more than double than that in the first half of the season's games so far and although that has still kept us in the relegation dogfight due to a series of individual errors, we are in a good position to pull clear.
Although of course nothing is guaranteed, I would hazard a guess that 38 points would be enough to keep us up.
A quick glance at the table tells you two things firstly that over the 30 games so far we have averaged a point a game and secondly if we maintain that ratio then we will hit 38 by the final day.
So the conclusion reached is that although this season has been littered with poor results and poor defending and lack of fit strikers that can score that has cost us dearly in some crucial games, the reality is that we don't need to panic and if we do little different in the final 8 games of the season we should be safe.
But the full table does not give us the full picture, it is all about current form and our ratio is distorted by that awful first 15 games.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has averaged 1.4 points per game so far, if he maintains that, something that is very achievable given our last 8 fixtures, then we will end up on 41-42 points and will be safe long before the end of the season.
A look at current form shows Saints in good standing compared to our fellow relegation strugglers, since Hasenhuttl arrived in the short, medium and long term results.
The short term of the last 6 games is perhaps the table we would least like to look at, we gained only 7 points out of 6, however that still puts us above Burnley in that period, equal with Brighton with only Cardiff above us, but if those ratio's are maintained till the end of the season then we would stay up as would Cardiff and Burnley would go down.
It should be noted though that those 6 games encompass what has been Hasenhuttl's difficult patch with 3 of them against Big Six sides and those last minute mistakes against Burnley & Cardiff.
The form over 8 games is perhaps the one to look at given there are 8 games left, although it should be noted Burnley have only 7, that shows us on 11 points from those games almost bang on Hasenhuttl's average for the season this is the 9th best form over the period and compares with Cardiff with 9 points, Burnley with 8 points and Brighton with only 7.
This could see a different outcome come the end of the season with Cardiff making the drop on 37 points and Burnley staying up on goal difference, although with only 4 goals in it that could change.
But for Saints we would be on 41 points and safe before the final day of the season and that is good news.
So although nothing is guaranteed for any team in the final run in, the good news is that we do not have to do anything different than we have done all season, we know we have some issues in certain positions, but if we can get a point a game as we ave averaged all season under our two managers, then we should be safe, it might be tight but we should be ok.
The better news is that if Ralph Hasenhuttl can keep his own personal points ratio up then we can stay up with time to spare.
The massage is clear as it has been since the Austrian arrive, it is about keeping our calm, concentrating on what we need to do and the fans accepting that things will go against us from time to time but of we all stay behind the team then we can achieve the goal of staying up, something that only 3 months ago looked unlikely.
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