Leo Scienza leaving Saints has been one of the big talking points since the season ended so abruptly just over a month ago, but the reality of the situation is that his departure is far from certain for a number of reasons.

footballleagueworld.co.uk have posed the question "Will Leo Scienza actually leave Southampton"

They suggest that he might well do as he has played in the German top flight and joined Saints with the hope that he would be returning to a top flight position next season with the club having returned to the Premier League.

However this is not a foregone conclusion due to the complexities of the situation.

Firstly there is the fact that he is contracted to Southampton till 2029, that is another 3 years for those without a calendar or calculator.

That means that Saints are in a strong position, they are under no pressure to sell other than if they are made an offer they can't refuse.

In this case that would be the £25 million that is the release clause in his contract.

Now this is where it starts to get interesting, £25 million is a lot of money to pay out for a player who will turn 28 in September, any club paying that amount would not be doing so with the hope of getting much of a return on that money given his age.

This would be a deterrent to many clubs.

Another obstacle to a club being willing to take a chance on Scienza would be his track record.

He ha spent most of his career in the lower divisions of Europe, starting in the 5th tier of Sweden and earning a move to Schalke II in 2020, spending two seasons in effectively the Schalke reserve team in the German 4th tier.

He then moved to FC Magdeburg in the Bundesliga 2 in 2022/23, but he was not a success there and played more in there second string side than the first team and after just one season he moved to SSV Ulm in the 3rd tier of German football.

Now 25 he seemed to be something of a journeyman footballer, however after a good season for Ulm, FC Heidenheim took a chance on him paying around £1 million.

His one full season at Heidenheim was far from a success, the club struggled against relegation & Scienza was far from a success, of the 34 Bundesliga games, he started just 13, came on as a sub in another 12 plus another 6 where he didn't get off the bench, missing the other 3 due to injury, scoring just 3 goals.

However he became a hero in the relegation play off, where with honours even after the first leg, he scored a stoppage time winner to make the score 2-1 and save Heidenheim from the drop.

Clearly though Saints has seen something and paid around £8 million for his services, seen in Germany as a little over the top of his valuation.

So any club interested in signing Scienza are going to have to take a big leap of faith, as I have illustrated, they are not getting a player with a track record in top flight football.

They would be getting a 28 year old who has only 27 top flight Bundesliga games to his name, half of those as a sub, indeed only his season at Saints apart only 11 games in the 2nd tier of any country and the rest of his time spent in lower leagues.

Given his age paying anywhere near his release clause fee would represent a big gamble, due to not only his track record, but the fact that at his age, they would be highly unlikely to get anywhere near like the money paid back if they moved him on.

From Scienza's own perspective, he would need to leave for a club that would offer him a better position, both in terms of League standing & financially.

Given the fee that would need to paid etc as mentioned, it might deter any Premier League club's interested in taking a punt, not to mention his aforementioned track record.

So from a League standing perspective, there are probably only a handful of Premier League clubs who would take a punt, certainly not the big 7 and most of the other 13 clubs look to bring in players who they can develop and sell on at a profit.

There will be Bundesliga clubs who might be interested, but not at the price being asked and probably not at the wage he is getting at St Mary's.

From a financial perspective, unless a Premier League club comes in for him, he is unlikely to get a better salary than he is on at Southampton, even if a Bundesliga club comes in, they probably won't offer him better than he is earning now.

So it will come down to what the player himself wants, of course he will want to play in the top flight either here or in Germany, but realistically is he going to achieve that both in terms of standing and financially ?

So the departure of Leo Scienza from St Mary's is far from a certainty, if he was 2 or 3 years younger, I would say it would have been nailed on, but due to age and his track record it has far less of a chance of happening.

From Saints perspective as I have mentioned, they are under no pressure to sell, they have Scienza locked in for another 3 years, they have a big release clause.

They will be discussing options with the player and be telling him his best chance of getting to the top flight is to spend another season at St Mary's and in a years time hopefully we will be back in the big time.

This one will not be sorted either way till the final day of the transfer window, Scienza will be being watched by a number of clubs, both here and in Germany, but he could well be more of a last minute panic buy for a club, than a marque signing.

If I have to put my head on the block I would say that he will start the season with Saints, but whether he is still here come September is not so sure.

All Photos Via Reuters