Harry Redknapp knows a win is desperately needed and absolutely vital to QPR’s survival chances as he prepares for his first home game in charge against Aston Villa.
Premier League >>> Saturday December 1, 2012 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
It’s easy to forget, when you listen to people like Mark Hughes and Rafael Benitez talk, that football is actually meant to be fun.
We have the relentless 24 hour media coverage, the colossal wages, the extortionate ticket prices, the billionaire owners artificially inflating clubs beyond their true level, the racism, the dissent, the diving and the piss rank attitude and behaviour of the modern footballer.
We have Mark Hughes and Kia Joorabchian furnishing QPR with a series of grossly overpaid players who don’t care about the club, don’t really want to play for it, and cannot be bothered to put the effort in on the pitch. Then we have Mark Hughes telling us we’re “working towards getting a victory” and have a “lot of quality in the building” during a series of monotonous events we’re told via Facebook and Twitter we should refer to as “pressers.” Then, after he fails to win any of his first 12 matches with his expensively assembled squad, we have Hughes leaving with a whopping cheque in his back pocket because he doesn’t have the good grace or personal pride to resign.
Down the road we have a megalomaniac Russian owner whose homoerotic fascination with a certain willowy Spanish forward has seen him shell out £50m to buy him in the first place despite all form and medical evidence suggesting he was finished, then sell all the other strikers to force the manager to pick said effeminate forward, then fire the manager when he plays a midfielder up front instead despite winning the Champions League just six months ago. He then appoints Rafael Benitez who former Chelsea winger Pat Nevin once correctly described as having “a footballing heart the size of a pea” and more recently said should not be appointed but now, to protect his position on the club’s official media channels, is backing. Benitez meanwhile has taken a club that has Eden Hazard, Juan Mata and Oscar to play in attacking midfield roles and, in one week, turned them into a dire, dreadful, boring ball of awfulness and served up two 0-0 draws. Benitez talks about shapes and systems and organisation like he’s in charge of a trading floor in the City of London, and there’s a lot of this microscopic, scientific, monotonous attitude to football about at the moment.
I would estimate that at the moment, at least 90% of the elements which go to make up the modern game of football are intensely dislikeable. And yet this week, at great expense, a small, faithful group from LFW have travelled the country in pursuit of the remaining 10%. We caught the train up to Manchester to watch QPR, and then sat for several hours on a delayed train back again while some Leeds and Crystal Palace fans had a punch up in the buffet car and set fire to the toilet. A quick pause for breath and some breakfast cereal and we were back out on the road again for a monumental trip up to Sunderland through the flood stricken north and decimated rail timetable, and back again when we were further delayed by a landslip. I stayed up north with family for a few days and came back today on a train that was delayed for the best part of three hours by some selfish prick jumping in front of it. People ask why, and when you listen to Hughes and Benitez it’s a hard question to answer.
The reason why is because last Saturday at Old Trafford Jamie Mackie scored against Manchester United and I was so happy I fell down a flight of steps while celebrating. I actually went so barmy after that goal I almost made myself throw up and I had to stand and catch my breath for a moment after several minutes of jumping on random strangers. That’s why we go to football, those sorts of moments, and it’s testament to just what a joyless wankstain and awful manager Mark Hughes was/is that his 11 month reign at Loftus Road managed to conjure up only two such occasions: Djibril Cisse’s late winner in a must win clash with Stoke, and Jamie Mackie’s last second winner against Liverpool which was scored while Hughes was instructing the team to sit back and settle for a point.
I suspect Harry Redknapp has bitten off more than he can chew with QPR. If previous Premier League seasons are a guide then the R’s need 12 wins from 26 games, and having gone without a victory of any sort in the league for six months to suddenly ask this under-committed bunch of wasters to win every other match seems a tall order. But one thing Redknapp will do is make it fun again; QPR will have a go with him in charge.
If they are to survive, they probably need to start with a win today against Aston Villa. That’s nothing new – twice in the mid-90s Villa came here and lost to a QPR side desperate for points. In the 1994/95 season the R’s won 2-0 thanks firstly to Paul McGrath who allowed a ball to drop in behind him and Danny Dichio stole into score, but mainly to Gary Penrice who swashbuckled half the length of the field to an open goal at the Loft End on a counter attack from a Villa corner with Mark Bosnich stranded on the halfway line. That was fun, watching Penrice take an absolute age to reach the unguarded goal and then slam it in to spark raucous celebrations across Shepherds Bush. We could do with that today, and a lot more of it in general.
It’s supposed to be fun this, let’s start making it so.
Links >>> Opposition Profile >>> History >>> Referee >>> Betting
Team News: Rob Green looks set to start for QPR for the first time since the first weekend in September after Julio Cesar was forced off early against Sunderland with a groin injury. Ji-Sung Park also made it off the bench at the Stadium of Light for the first time in several weeks and he may be pushing for a start in midfield. Bobby Zamora and Andy Johnson are long term absentees leaving Djibril Ciise as the only recognised out and out striker for Redknapp to select.
Villa have a doubt over their captain Ron Vlaar who picked up a calf injury against Arsenal last week. Left back Enda Stevens is also out and likely to be replaced by Eric Lichaj but Chris Herd is fit again after a knee injury. Clearly many media eyes will be on Darren Bent, who Paul Lambert is steadfastly ignoring despite his team’s recent troubles and is likely to do so again.
Elsewhere: Well, true to form, Rafael Bentiez has wasted no time at all in turning a team with the collective talents of Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar at its disposal into one of the league’s most dour sides to watch. Despite two poor performances and coma-inducing 0-0 draws this week the Blues are odds on to win at high flying West Ham in the Saturday lunchtime game and that looks like a betting opportunity if ever I saw one.
The Saturday evening fixture comes from Reading, where the hosts have just a single win from 13 matches in the Premier League since promotion and now have to face Manchester United. The Reds have been giving teams a chance, and even conceded first against the motley crew from QPR last weekend, but it’s hard to see Reading doing them much damage despite Brian McDermott’s assertion today that he is the right manager to lead them away from danger.
There are some really intriguing and attractive looking games sandwiched inbetween at 3pm. Tottenham finally seem to have found a little form as they go to Fulham to face former boss Martin Jol while Everton will pose a stiff test for Manchester City who were flattered by a 2-0 scoreline at Wigan on Wednesday night. Everton are still the last side to win a league game at Eastlands, way back in December 2010. Southampton have strung a couple of decent results away and their renewed self belief makes them a danger for a patchy Liverpool side at Anfield, while Swansea will be buoyed by what manager Michael Laudrup described as a ‘perfect’ first half display against West Brom during the week as they approach an away game at Arsenal where they’ve probably got a better chance of winning than they’ve ever had before. West Brom hope to bounce back from that defeat in Wales with a home game against Stoke, who haven’t won on the road in 14 attempts.
Norwich v Sunderland brings up the rear on Sunday, although all eyes are likely to be on MK Dons v Wimbledon in the FA Cup, while Newcastle could have wished for less tricky opponents than Wigan on the Monday night football as they attempt to snap a four game losing sequence.
Referee: Howard Webb was by far and away the most consistently good referee QPR had for their matches last season, culminating in an average mark of 8.25 out of ten from four appointments on our referee league. This Saturday he returns to action with the R’s for the first time since the 6-1 massacre at Chelsea – a month long break in the US in September has curtailed his Premier League appointments so far this season and this is his first Villa match of the campaign as well. For a full QPR case file please click here.
QPR: No victory in 14 league matches for QPR now, the worst start to a Premier League season since Swindon Town in 1993/94 who won at the sixteenth time of asking – against QPR – and were eventually relegated with just five maximum point hauls. Rangers need somewhere in the region of 12 wins, and with just 26 matches left that’s a tall order that really is going to have to start with this game in all likelihood as Rangers are now eight points away from safety with just five on the board so far. Even Derby, in their infamous last season at this level that finished with just one win and 11 points, had six at this stage. The good news is Harry Redknapp has never lost his first home game as a new Premier League manager – two wins and three draws. Sadly you’re about to hear from our Prediction League champion who is tipping a 0-0 draw and given QPR have only scored ten goals so far in the league, and Villa just 11, he might have a point. Rangers have won three and drawn two of five Premier League games with Villa at Loftus Road.
Villa: Villa climbed out of the relegation zone with a 1-0 home win against Reading during the week but haven’t won consecutive games in the Premier League for a year and a half and have only won one (and lost nine) of their last 15 away matches. They’ve also kept two consecutive clean sheets and if they make it a third at Loftus Road it will be the first time since January 2010. Lambert’s men have recovered just a single point from losing positions this season.
Betting:Professional odds compiler Alex Rowe returns to LFW this week and tells us…
“Ahead of our fifteenth ‘must win’ game of the season there seems to be a renewed confidence among players & supporters. Scrapping zonal marking, dealing with set pieces and for the first time this season not looking like losing a game (albeit against a toothless Sunderland) were the positives I took from Tuesday night. It seems Harry had been doing his own meticulous preparation on how poor Mark Hughes apparent attention to detail had been.
“Early quotes of 6/5 about the home win this weekend are long gone (best price currently 21/20) and there seems to be a real feeling amongst punters & bookies alike that this could be our weekend to register that elusive first win. Personally I expect the money to continue to flow the way of QPR this weekend which should see us go off around the 10/11 mark.
“Despite consecutive home clean sheets the spine of the Villa side still looks lightweight to me without Ron Vlaar at the heart of defence who missed out due to injury against Reading. Should he fail to be fit for Saturday that would see the inexperienced Ciaran Clark and Nathan Baker continue in front of Brad Guzan. Barry Bannan and Ashley Westwood have started the last few games in deep midfield roles both maybe good footballers in possession but with the power houses of M’bia and Diakite their direct opponents in the middle of the park I can see only one winner of the midfield battle. Other than the impressive Benteke there seems little pace or power throughout the Aston Villa side but as he continues to be isolated through the middle on his own I expect between them Nelson & Hill will deal with him.
“It’s a first for some time but we should be confident of winning and doing it well this weekend so I’ll be backing QPR to win without conceding at 11/4 (Ladbrokes) along with a speculative few quid on Samba Diakite first goal 33/1 & 12/1 anytime (Coral).”
Predicition: Reigning champion on the LFW Prediction League Nathan McAllister says…
“It’s one thing talking about the importance of a work ethic on the pitch, it’s another to actually be able to instil it in players and get them playing for you. On the evidence of Tuesday night’s game, Harry Redknapp is rather better at this than Mark Hughes was. Of course, it’s all really rather early to be judging whether or not Redknapp is going to be the right appointment for QPR, but at Sunderland the signs were good as Rangers were solid, organised and generally dominated the midfield areas.
“The main worry is now where the goals are going to come from to get the wins that Rangers so desperately need. Hughes made a lot of mistakes in his brief reign at QPR. Many of these became apparent only with the benefit of hindsight, but that really can’t be said of Hughes decision to name only three recognised strikers - all of them over thirty with a history of bad injuries – in the initial 25 man squad. Now we are left with one fit centre forward struggling for form and reportedly angling for a move away from the club. This at a time when Rangers begin a series of six crucial yet winnable fixtures – four of which are at home. What really sticks in the craw about this is that two players Hughes had on his books before the season started have between them 12 goals from 28 appearances so far this season in the league below. OK, sure, it’s the league below, but don’t forget these players have been prolific in the Premiership recently too. Helguson scored eight goals in 16 appearances last season while Campbell hit 13 in 32 the season before for Blackpool.
“It’s this striker/goals shortage that concerns me most coming into this latest must-win fixture at home to Aston Villa, who themselves come into this game off the back of two successive clean sheets. Villa for me have one of the weakest squads in the Premier League, but they also have an excellent manager who has come out on top in all of his three most recent fixtures against Rangers, not to mention his last fixture against Redknapp (a 2-1 win for Norwich at White Hart Lane back in April). His approach to team building seems to be the polar opposite of Hughes’s, preferring to recruit and field sides comprised mainly of young, promising up and coming players just starting out and looking to make a name for themselves. Of the outfield players that started Villa’s match with Reading on Wednesday, just 2 were above the age of 23, and none over 28. Though they are very much in a rebuilding phase, and their form has been patchy to say the least, they have still managed to open up an 8 point lead over QPR already and really shouldn’t be underestimated.
“Since I haven’t managed to correctly predict even the outcome (let alone correct score) of a Rangers home game this season I daren’t predict a victory here, and since this game pits together the division’s lowest home scorers and lowest away scorers I’m going for a low-scoring draw. I hope I’m wrong – because a point really won’t be enough.”
Prediction: QPR 0 Aston Villa 0
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