I woke up today and thought - right, this is Pompey's 14th league game of the season so by the end of it they'll be a third of the way through their latest bid to escape from League Two. Seems like a good time to watch them and deliver a verdict on their progress.
The general idea was that they'd beat Notts County for their fifth home win and be sat right on the coat-tails of the top three. But I was stupidly overlooking the fact this is Pompey we are talking about and they don't do scripts or nicely-laid plans. So of course they turned in one of their most feeble performances of the season, or arguably of recent seasons, and of course they now find themselves fifth, 11 points behind the leaders and five points off a top-three spot.
Okay, the gap isn't big at the moment, but the frustrating thing is there shouldn't be a gap at all between Pompey and those in the frame to make this season's leap to League One.
Some questions, and my answers to them. Will Pompey win League Two this year? Probably not, because Plymouth look like this season's Northampton, even though it is early to put them down as anything like certs. Will Pompey finish in the top three? Quite possibly but only if they improve significantly on what they have produced so far.
Will we end up in the play-offs again? It has to be a distinct possibility the way things are going at the moment, and the best thing you can say about that prospect is we're unlikely to face Plymouth (though if the season was over now, we'd be playing Notts County, which doesn't sound too good to me). Could we even miss the play-offs? Yes if we don't buck up.
Pompey have now lost two in a row at home - so disappointing after the way they blew away Crawley, Wycombe and Barnet with 12 goals in three home games in September. They've not been outplayed by either of the teams to win at Fratton since - but neither have they shown nearly enough to leave you thinking 'how did we not win those games?'
Against the Magpies (who, remember, were beaten 4-0 at Fratton less than seven months ago) Pompey landed themselves with an uphill battle by twice conceding soft goals. The first came a little like Doncaster's second three weeks ago - a quick free-kick from the centre circle; one player, on this occasion, allowed time to turn, and his neat finish into the top corner too much for David Forde.
There was a suspicion of unfairness about County's second - Tom Davies got a clear push in the build-up - but with or without that, it was still far too easy for County to move forward quickly and slice through and for Campbell to beat Forde again.
In between the goals we saw Pompey's Jekyll and Hyde nature. There was little wrong with the response to the opening goal in the remainder of the first half. Kyle Bennett and Gary Roberts carved open the Magpies to set up Conor Chaplin for the equaliser and the Blues might easily have scored before and after the chance they did take.
I thought Bennett had an excellent first half and so did Amine Linganzi, whose calm authority and precise use of the ball as one of the holding midfielders I like. But where was Pompey's purpose, invention and pressure after the break? Nowhere to be seen.
The game was plodding along at 1-1 and neither side looked capable of taking it by the scruff of the neck. County will have headed back up the M1 delighted with the points and probably surprised they snaffled them without having had to be at their best, or mount any sort of desperate backs-to-the-wall effort towards the end.
The simple fact is Pompey's second-half display was nowhere good enough, from start to finish. Many more 45-minute shows like that and they'll have to forget even the play-offs, let alone any hope of avoiding the kncokout lottery by finishing in the top three.
The Blues have won six and lost five of their first 14 games. Repeat that form over the season and they'll have 63 points with four games to play - if that's the case, they might still get in the play-offs but they'll be some way off an automatic spot. If third-placed Doncaster repeat their first-14 form, they'll be on 78 points and already out of reach with four to play.
So by the time the next set of 14 games are up, Pompey will need to have got themselves into a much better position. If they can win nine and draw three of that next group, then automatic promotion might be a much more serious possibility.
But that won't happen by magic. Consistency is badly lacking in this campaign so far and it needs to be found pretty damn quick. Paul Cook doesn't need me to tell him that. But can he and his players find it?
I am huge fan of both Chaplin and Roberts but I am not convinced we will get out of League Two with them as our regular pairing playing farthest forward. Too many teams are going to get their measure. Any side who have big men at the back and are quite well-organised seem to me to have a good chance of snuffing us out at the moment.
I'm not comfortable with either one being dropped but could we try Chaplin and Curtis Main up front with Roberts behind? If it means leaving Carl Baker or even Bennett out one week just as an experiment so be it. Or could we switch to just the one holding player at home? That would probably be Michael Doyle although I think he's another who wouldn't be harmed by being 'rested' for a couple of games, meaning we could see Linganzi and Danny Rose paired up, or Linganzi given a chance to anchor the midfield on his own.
Defensive frailities are showing up too often, at home and away, even if our total of 16 conceded is not bad. I'm not sure that Tom Davies is the man to partner Christian Burgess - he doesn't seem as capable as Matt Clarke of playing the ball out from the back, as Cook wants his team to do. And while Gareth Evans has looked consistent since being converted to right-back, it's not his position and I wonder if we might be more solid once Drew Talbot returns. Enda Stevens remains easily our best bet at left-back and one hopes the hamstring twinge that saw him come off against County is no more than that, because whatever else Kal Naismith is, he is not a left-back.
What would my starting XI be next time out at Cambridge? Probably - Forde, Talbot, Stevens, Burgess, Clarke (if fit), Linganzi, Roberts, Bennett, Baker, Chaplin, Main. But I might have replaced Baker with Rose by the time the trip comes around.
The factor that eluded Pompey last season, that proved pretty costly in the final reckoning, was they couldn't manage a run of six wins on the trot, or even five in six. This season is no different - they are going to need a run like at some stage, ideally before Christmas. And this year I shan't mind too much if we go out of the FA Cup early - that might just focus minds on the bread and butter.
It's clear we have a squad good enough to go on such a winning run, and to go on and finish in the top three. I've said it before and I'll say it again - you don't have to be out-of-this-world to get out of League Two, you just have to be consistent. At the moment we're not, but that's not to say we can't be.
It's Cook's job to find the right blend and the settled line-up that can find that momentum - and anyone saying after this defeat that he should go really needs to remember how often a mid-season managerial change has helped Pompey in the past. It would be a ridiculous move to get rid of him now - we are, don't forget, fifth, not 15th. Fifth, with hard graft and some big days ahead.
Pompey: Forde; Evans, Davies, Burgess, Stevens (Naismith 59); Linganzi, Doyle; Baker, Roberts, Bennett (Lalkovic 74); Chaplin (Main 70). Subs not used: O’Brien, Clarke, Rose, Smith.
Referee: Nigel Miller
Attendance: 17,269 (364 away fans)
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