| Racing Posts analysis of Swansea 20:05 - Aug 9 with 829 views | pikeypaul |
FOR a long time sensible Swansea were showcased as an efficient example of how to run a mid-table Premier League club and after a brief gallivant on the wild side conservative City appear back on track.
This will be Swansea’s seventh consecutive Premier League campaign but last term’s 15th place was their worst position since they were promoted and the first time the Welsh outfit have looked in danger of losing their top-flight status.
Swansea spent 128 days in the relegation zone and used four different managers with Paul Clement finally succeeding where Francesco Guidolin, Bob Bradley and caretaker Alan Curtis failed.
Nine of Swansea’s 12 wins last season came with Clement at the helm, which was an impressive return considering those victories came in just 18 matches and he arrived with the club in chaos after Bradley’s 84-day cameo.
Clement, an excellent coach who worked alongside Carlo Ancelotti at Chelsea, PSG, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, spent extensive time working on Swansea’s defensive structure alongside assistant Claude Makelele and was not afraid to tinker with the formation, finishing the season with a midfield diamond that has been carried over into the summer friendlies.
Central to the diamond was Gylfi Sigurdsson, who finished third in the assists table with 13 behind Christian Eriksen (15) and Kevin De Bruyne (18). He has been the subject of interest elsewhere with an eye-watering £50m mentioned as a possible transfer fee.
The potential loss of Sigurdsson would be a blow but Swansea’s transfer strategy looks in much better shape since Dan Altman, an American data analytics expert, was brought in. Midfield pass master Roque Mesa was a bargain signing from Las Palmas and Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham looks a shrewd loan choice.
Abraham scored 23 Sky Bet Championship goals last season and has the mobility to play alongside target-man Fernando Llorente, who hit 15 Premier League goals, should Clement stick with a 4-4-2 diamond that limits opportunities for his wingers.
Despite that, many are tipping the Swans for another season of struggle but City have always beaten the 40-point Premier League
mark with finishes of 11-9-12-8-12-15 and something just below their 11th-place average is anticipated. |  |
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| Racing Posts views on Swansea and the 2017/18 season. on 20:09 - Aug 9 with 809 views | pikeypaul |
They go for Man City for the title
Never mind Pep Guardiola's three La Liga titles with Barcelona and three Bundesliga crowns with Bayern Munich.
Forget the four domestic cup successes, three World Club Cups, three European Super Cups, two Champions League trophies and the Fifa World Coach of the year award ...
Whatever he says in public, Guardiola will have been more disappointed than anyone to have finished his first season at Manchester City trophyless, but some of the negativity to the third-place finish was way over the top.
Guardiola has already warned the league he will improve this season and that infatuation with developing all aspects of the club means City are deserving of title favouritism.
The fact they have spent an absolute fortune over the summer is just another tick on the long list of positive signs for City.
They looked several notches above their rivals early last term as they flew out of the traps with ten straight victories and 30 goals scored, while it is often overlooked that Guardiola's team finished with one defeat in their last 17 Premier League matches.
Many aspects of City's play will have thrilled Guardiola and it was no surprise to see them top the possession table with just shy of 61 per cent, while despite the general perception the Etihad outfit also conceded the fewest shots in the league.
Unfortunately for City and particularly Guardiola seeing as he was so keen on the signing, goalkeeper Claudio Bravo had a nightmare from the moment he arrived with a blooper on his debut in the Manchester derby.
Ederson, a cocky more aggressive stopper, has been signed to replace Bravo at great expense and there are upgrades to the starting 11 where the transfer record for defenders was broken twice, first by right-back Kyle Walker and then left-back Benjamin Mendy.
Bernardo Silva adds further midfield creativity to a team that should score plenty with Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus in attack.
Aguero was dogged by suspension woes last term but scored 20 times in 2,407 minutes and January arrival Jesus notched seven goals in only 651 minutes, which was a stunning return considering it was presumed the young Brazilian would need time to settle.
Jesus should be even better this term and so should City. [Post edited 9 Aug 2017 20:21]
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| Racing Posts analysis of Swansea on 20:15 - Aug 9 with 783 views | pikeypaul |
Relaxation
BURNLEY enjoyed upsetting the odds last season but the Clarets may not be toasting another successful Premier League campaign.
Sean Dyche’s side were evens to go down at this stage last year and stayed up with a six-point buffer, although the recipe is there for a decent bet with a weakened team now at a bigger price.
Michael Keane’s departure to Everton could be a fatal blow for Burnley’s survival chances as the England centre-back was vital to a defensive record of only 55 goals conceded.
That rearguard action was important as Burnley scored only 39 times and had the fewest shots of any non-relegated team, while Keane missed just three league matches last term in which the Clarets conceded six goals.
Dyche had the luxury of selecting the same defence in 31 of their 38 league matches, but Burnley will be in trouble if injuries bite, a point highlighted by the FA Cup exit at home to non-league Lincoln when squad members were given a rare chance to play.
That was an unusually rare Turf Moor blip as Burnley were mostly brilliant at home, collecting 33 of their 40 points in front of their own fans.
The Clarets won ten home league matches - two more than Manchester United - and will presumably use that fortress as a platform to launch another survival bid.
However, it’s a record that looks unsustainable and one of those victories came in a 2-0 success over Liverpool in which they forced only two shots on target from under 20 per cent possession.
The league table shows Burnley triumphed ten times at Turf Moor, but it does not indicate on how many occasions they nicked late points and those are fine margins which can easily flip.
Everton and Crystal Palace were beaten in the last minute, while Burnley also grabbed narrow 1-0 victories over Southampton, Middlesbrough and Leicester with goals in the final 12 minutes.
Burnley won only two of their last 15 league fixtures and without the feelgood factor of promotion to spur them on this time it could be a much tougher campaign.
One thing is for sure: Burnley will almost certainly need to improve on their road record of seven points.
Huddersfield are an obvious club to consider for the drop but bookmakers are giving little away.
The Terriers have attempted to strengthen their squad and possess a shrewd manager in David Wagner, although money talks at this level and Huddersfield reportedly worked with a bottom-half budget in last season’s Sky Bet Championship.
Colleague Kevin Pullein has calculated the audited accounts for all Premier League clubs (allowing for inflation) between 2000-16 and the six promoted teams with the lowest payrolls were all relegated. They averaged 28 points with an average finishing position of 19th.
Those statistics suggest Huddersfield are unlikely to survive, particularly after claiming promotion with a negative goal difference.
Brighton (plus 34 goal difference) and Newcastle (plus 45) were much more dominant and neither team appeals for a relegation bet.
Newcastle should be okay as long as tactical mastermind Rafael Benitez remains on Tyneside and Brighton are a perfectly well-run club who don’t look much worse, on paper at least, compared to some of those hanging around the bottom six.
Watford’s decision to appoint Marco Silva could be the difference for them and Swansea were much-improved under Paul Clement last term, racking up 29 points in 2017, which was top-half form.
The rise in Premier League standards is highlighted by Frank de Boer heading to Crystal Palace and with Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke in the side they don’t make huge relegation appeal.
West Brom are far more interesting despite manager Tony Pulis never having suffered relegation.
Albion were hugely reliant on set-piece goals last term and if the signing of Jay Rodriguez, a man who has suffered frustrating periods out injured, fails to come off it is difficult to see much in the way of firepower.
Rodriguez has scored five goals in his last 36 league matches, big Gareth McAuley is now 37, Darren Fletcher left for Stoke and Nacer Chadli failed to travel with the squad for pre-season training in Austria.
Stoke also need to enter considerations given they spent 56 days in the bottom three last season and lost one of their best players, Marko Arnautovic, to West Ham this summer.
Mark Hughes is usually backed by the owners and there is still time to improve the squad but, for now at least, they look short in key areas and particularly up front, where Saido Berahino must deliver.
A section of fans have turned on Hughes and the Potters face a brutal early schedule with eight of their first nine matches against teams who finished in the top half last term.
Stoke start at Everton, followed by Arsenal at home, West Brom (away), Manchester United (home), Newcastle (away), Chelsea (home), Southampton (home), Manchester City (away) and Bournemouth (home).
Worryingly, Sparky’s side often start slowly. Stoke collected three points from the first 21 available last season and three from the first six games in 2015-16.
Recommendations
Burnley
2pts 13-10 Betfair, Paddy Power
Huddersfield, Burnley & West Brom relegation treble
0.5pt 50-1 general
Huddersfield, Burnley & Stoke relegation treble
0.5pt 66-1 Betfair
How the promoted sides have fared
2016-17 Burnley 16th, Hull 18th, Middlesbrough 19th
2015-16 Watford 13th, Bournemouth 16th, Norwich 19th
2014-15 Burnley 19th, Leicester 14th, QPR 20th
2013-14 Cardiff 20th PATHETIC AND EMBARRASSING TO WALES,Hull 16th, Crystal Palace 11th
2012-13 Reading 19th, Southampton 14th, West Ham 10th
2011-12 QPR 17th, Norwich 12th, Swansea 11th
2010-11 Newcastle 12th, West Brom 11th, Blackpool 19th
2009-10 Wolves 15th, Birmingham 9th, Burnley 18th
2008-09 West Brom 20th, Stoke 12th, Hull 17th
2007-08 Sunderland 15th, Birmingham 19th, Derby 20th
2006-07 Reading 8th, Sheffield United 18th, Watford 20th
2005-06 Sunderland 20th, Wigan 10th, West Ham 9th
Teams in bold were relegated [Post edited 9 Aug 2017 20:19]
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