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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK 23:28 - Nov 10 with 1129210 viewspikeypaul



And like a typical anti democracy remoaner he decided the will of the people should be ignored the minute the democratic result was in total fecking hypocrite 😂😂😂😂😂😂

Despite it being voted in to law by the commons the spineless two faced remoaner MPs have totally abandoned any morals and decided to ignore the will of the British people.

It will be remembered and no election or referendum will ever be the same again in this country.

The one thing that will come is a massive surge in the popularity of UKIP or a similar party in the future who stand for the 52%.

Happy Days.

[Post edited 29 Mar 4:37]

🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧
Poll: Where wil Judas be sitting when we play Millwall?

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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:47 - Sep 12 with 674 viewsrockinjk

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 17:53 - Sep 12 by waynekerr55

There is no deal to be done. It's either:

- no deal
- become a rule taker
- remain


As to always was

But the unicorn deal was what won - project fear to doubt it
0
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:48 - Sep 12 with 665 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:41 - Sep 12 by exiledclaseboy

That’s quite some delusion level going on right there.


The Government’s yellowhammer report on planning assumptions for Brexit will go down in history as a key document in the struggle to achieve Brexit. Farcically it is not a statement of government policy and probably does not reflect the views of government. It is rather a piece of civil service advice, commissioned by we know not who, and compiled we know not where.

What is most striking is the almost complete absence of evidence in the document. What these ‘worst-case’ planning assumptions are based on is not vouchsafed to us. The title ‘HMG Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Assumptions’ does not make it clear whether these assumptions are proposals or have been adopted by government. The fact that the government intends to issue a new document suggests the former, but we are left in the dark.

It is not even clear whether the title refers only to the opening section of the paper or to the entire document. Nor is there any clarity on what is meant by ‘worst-case’. The document is silent on whether these are unlikely events for which any responsible government has to prepare. The government presumably has plans for dealing with all sorts of unlikely events including asteroid strikes, hurricanes or tsunamis. An earlier version of the document leaked to the Sunday Times suggests that the assumptions were more central than worst-case, but none of this is clear in the version published yesterday.

Yellowhammer is full of ‘woulds’ and ‘coulds’ but also contains some more confident predictions that things ‘will’ happen. The latter include a confident prediction that companies’ preparedness for no deal on October 31st will deteriorate between now and then. This is simply unknowable and can obviously be countered by official awareness campaigns, but there is no mention of this.

After eight opening paragraphs in this vein the document moves on to what is termed ‘Key Planning Assumptions’. This section starts by pointing out that November 1st is unhelpfully a Friday with no reference to the possibility of declaring this a bank holiday to give a long weekend to try out new arrangements.

In a chink of light, the document does say that:

‘France has built infrastructure and IT system (sic) to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime’.

It omits any mention of claims by Calais port and the regional President, Xavier Bertrand, that Calais is prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Such preparedness is then ignored and the documents gets to what it considers the nub of the issue:

‘on day 1 between 50-85% HGVs travelling via the short Calais straights may not be ready for French customs… which could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels as unready vehicles will fill the ports and block flow’.

The worst disruption could then last for up to 3 months. After that improvements may only reach a maximum of 70 per cent of current levels as hauliers become more prepared. There is no mention here of French intransigence – only the lack of preparation of UK hauliers. Firms could, the document opines, face delays of up to 2.5 days with additional difficulties in returning to the UK. Despite this horrendous loss of income logistics firms will, it seems, still be extremely slow in getting their act together on customs.

French customs have for months been handing out leaflets on customs requirements to drivers, but it seems that we must assume a worst case in which most of this advice is ignored. Nor apparently should we assume that HMG could manage even this worst case by conducting its own document checks outside Dover. Apparently, the worst case is that HMG would simply sit back and watch the chaos unfold. The mind boggles.

What will all of this unmanaged chaos do to UK supplies? The prediction is that:

‘with significant disruption lasting for up to six months [if unmitigated] this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies… any disruption to medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease…. certain types of fresh food supplies would decrease’.

All of these apocalyptic scenarios have of course been enthusiastically broadcast by the press and media, but what do they really amount to? Apparently if UK logistics firms transporting to the Continent find themselves unable to deal with French customs forms for six months or more, and HMG finds itself quite unable to deal with this unlikely situation in any practical manner, queues will build up at Dover and perhaps at other roll-on/ roll-off ports. Well yes indeed. However, the report does quietly admit that other ports are prepared.

It does not point out that Dover is only the UK’s ninth largest port, handling only 5 per cent of the UK’s overall tonnage. Nor is there any speculation on how hauliers may switch to other routes to avoid congestion at Calais (which is precisely what the Calais port authorities fear). There is also no mention of precautions already taken by foreign producers who will wish to protect their UK markets.

The report is yet another horrendous example of Project Fear, whether intentional or not. It conjures up a series of lurid scenarios which are both unlikely to happen and if they did could be managed with straightforward control measures. No account is taken of firms taking elementary precautions to protect their markets and profits. It is not even comprehensive. No mention is made of just-in-time manufacturers or of the need to cull cows in Northern Ireland. In short, this is a poor-quality report written in a way that would obviously cause maximum unease. We should ignore it.

Graham Gudgin is chief economic advisor at Policy Exchange and co-editor of Briefings for Brexit.

Graham Gudgin is Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) at Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the Ulster University and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. He was Director of the ESRC's Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998, when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. He founded a forecasting consultancy in Northern Ireland, which was later sold to Oxford Economics with whom he worked for a number of years. Prior to moving to Northern Ireland he was a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group (CEPG) under the late Wynne Godley, and Economics Fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. Together with Ken Coutts at the CBR, and colleagues at Ulster University, an econometric model of the UK economy has been constructed to undertake policy simulations for the UK economy, most recently assessing the impact of Brexit.
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:50 - Sep 12 with 655 viewsexiledclaseboy

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:48 - Sep 12 by Jango

The Government’s yellowhammer report on planning assumptions for Brexit will go down in history as a key document in the struggle to achieve Brexit. Farcically it is not a statement of government policy and probably does not reflect the views of government. It is rather a piece of civil service advice, commissioned by we know not who, and compiled we know not where.

What is most striking is the almost complete absence of evidence in the document. What these ‘worst-case’ planning assumptions are based on is not vouchsafed to us. The title ‘HMG Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Assumptions’ does not make it clear whether these assumptions are proposals or have been adopted by government. The fact that the government intends to issue a new document suggests the former, but we are left in the dark.

It is not even clear whether the title refers only to the opening section of the paper or to the entire document. Nor is there any clarity on what is meant by ‘worst-case’. The document is silent on whether these are unlikely events for which any responsible government has to prepare. The government presumably has plans for dealing with all sorts of unlikely events including asteroid strikes, hurricanes or tsunamis. An earlier version of the document leaked to the Sunday Times suggests that the assumptions were more central than worst-case, but none of this is clear in the version published yesterday.

Yellowhammer is full of ‘woulds’ and ‘coulds’ but also contains some more confident predictions that things ‘will’ happen. The latter include a confident prediction that companies’ preparedness for no deal on October 31st will deteriorate between now and then. This is simply unknowable and can obviously be countered by official awareness campaigns, but there is no mention of this.

After eight opening paragraphs in this vein the document moves on to what is termed ‘Key Planning Assumptions’. This section starts by pointing out that November 1st is unhelpfully a Friday with no reference to the possibility of declaring this a bank holiday to give a long weekend to try out new arrangements.

In a chink of light, the document does say that:

‘France has built infrastructure and IT system (sic) to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime’.

It omits any mention of claims by Calais port and the regional President, Xavier Bertrand, that Calais is prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Such preparedness is then ignored and the documents gets to what it considers the nub of the issue:

‘on day 1 between 50-85% HGVs travelling via the short Calais straights may not be ready for French customs… which could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels as unready vehicles will fill the ports and block flow’.

The worst disruption could then last for up to 3 months. After that improvements may only reach a maximum of 70 per cent of current levels as hauliers become more prepared. There is no mention here of French intransigence – only the lack of preparation of UK hauliers. Firms could, the document opines, face delays of up to 2.5 days with additional difficulties in returning to the UK. Despite this horrendous loss of income logistics firms will, it seems, still be extremely slow in getting their act together on customs.

French customs have for months been handing out leaflets on customs requirements to drivers, but it seems that we must assume a worst case in which most of this advice is ignored. Nor apparently should we assume that HMG could manage even this worst case by conducting its own document checks outside Dover. Apparently, the worst case is that HMG would simply sit back and watch the chaos unfold. The mind boggles.

What will all of this unmanaged chaos do to UK supplies? The prediction is that:

‘with significant disruption lasting for up to six months [if unmitigated] this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies… any disruption to medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease…. certain types of fresh food supplies would decrease’.

All of these apocalyptic scenarios have of course been enthusiastically broadcast by the press and media, but what do they really amount to? Apparently if UK logistics firms transporting to the Continent find themselves unable to deal with French customs forms for six months or more, and HMG finds itself quite unable to deal with this unlikely situation in any practical manner, queues will build up at Dover and perhaps at other roll-on/ roll-off ports. Well yes indeed. However, the report does quietly admit that other ports are prepared.

It does not point out that Dover is only the UK’s ninth largest port, handling only 5 per cent of the UK’s overall tonnage. Nor is there any speculation on how hauliers may switch to other routes to avoid congestion at Calais (which is precisely what the Calais port authorities fear). There is also no mention of precautions already taken by foreign producers who will wish to protect their UK markets.

The report is yet another horrendous example of Project Fear, whether intentional or not. It conjures up a series of lurid scenarios which are both unlikely to happen and if they did could be managed with straightforward control measures. No account is taken of firms taking elementary precautions to protect their markets and profits. It is not even comprehensive. No mention is made of just-in-time manufacturers or of the need to cull cows in Northern Ireland. In short, this is a poor-quality report written in a way that would obviously cause maximum unease. We should ignore it.

Graham Gudgin is chief economic advisor at Policy Exchange and co-editor of Briefings for Brexit.

Graham Gudgin is Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) at Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the Ulster University and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. He was Director of the ESRC's Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998, when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. He founded a forecasting consultancy in Northern Ireland, which was later sold to Oxford Economics with whom he worked for a number of years. Prior to moving to Northern Ireland he was a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group (CEPG) under the late Wynne Godley, and Economics Fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. Together with Ken Coutts at the CBR, and colleagues at Ulster University, an econometric model of the UK economy has been constructed to undertake policy simulations for the UK economy, most recently assessing the impact of Brexit.


Can you link to the origin of that please.

But it’s exactly the sort of thing I said in this forum last night would start surfacing once the summary was released. I’m not in the least bit surprised.

Oh, it’s from “Briefings for Brexit”. Shocker.
[Post edited 12 Sep 19:54]

Poll: Tory leader

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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:57 - Sep 12 with 632 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:50 - Sep 12 by exiledclaseboy

Can you link to the origin of that please.

But it’s exactly the sort of thing I said in this forum last night would start surfacing once the summary was released. I’m not in the least bit surprised.

Oh, it’s from “Briefings for Brexit”. Shocker.
[Post edited 12 Sep 19:54]


https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/yellowhammer-is-yet-another-part-of-projec
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:58 - Sep 12 with 633 viewsexiledclaseboy

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:57 - Sep 12 by Jango

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/yellowhammer-is-yet-another-part-of-projec


Briefings for Brexit via the Spectator. Makes it all better. Well, it’s an opinion he’s entitled to I suppose.

Poll: Tory leader

1
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:59 - Sep 12 with 627 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:50 - Sep 12 by exiledclaseboy

Can you link to the origin of that please.

But it’s exactly the sort of thing I said in this forum last night would start surfacing once the summary was released. I’m not in the least bit surprised.

Oh, it’s from “Briefings for Brexit”. Shocker.
[Post edited 12 Sep 19:54]


Another fine example of remainers completely ignoring the views of ‘experts’ when they don’t like what they have to say.
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:02 - Sep 12 with 618 viewsexiledclaseboy

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:59 - Sep 12 by Jango

Another fine example of remainers completely ignoring the views of ‘experts’ when they don’t like what they have to say.


Not at all my friend. As I said, he’s entitled to his view. As I also said, this is exactly the sort of thing I expected to see today. And he’s not an expert in this. He’s an economist.

Poll: Tory leader

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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:06 - Sep 12 with 600 viewsrockinjk

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:47 - Sep 12 by Glyn1

Why do lots of people phoning in to the radio shows think that a No Deal exit will be the end of it? Don't they realise that this is the easy bit? We've another 10 years of this (being optimistic).

We had a sweet deal (the same as Germany plus opt outs) and now we're going to spend years negotiating a worse one.
[Post edited 12 Sep 19:48]


Correct. I think someone said it takes us back to square one, but now we’re on fire.

In every Brexit scenario we’ve barely made it over the first hurdle

It’s probably the most soul crushing comment whenever it’s made “people just want it over”

They know damn well that is bs but so many people think this

The only way to stop talking about it, is to call it off. That’s literally the truth.
[Post edited 12 Sep 20:06]
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:07 - Sep 12 with 590 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:02 - Sep 12 by exiledclaseboy

Not at all my friend. As I said, he’s entitled to his view. As I also said, this is exactly the sort of thing I expected to see today. And he’s not an expert in this. He’s an economist.


Who exactly is an expert in this?
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:16 - Sep 12 with 570 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:06 - Sep 12 by rockinjk

Correct. I think someone said it takes us back to square one, but now we’re on fire.

In every Brexit scenario we’ve barely made it over the first hurdle

It’s probably the most soul crushing comment whenever it’s made “people just want it over”

They know damn well that is bs but so many people think this

The only way to stop talking about it, is to call it off. That’s literally the truth.
[Post edited 12 Sep 20:06]


Once it’s been decided whether we finally leave or remain then the vast majority of people will just carry on like they did before the vote. The #FPBE brigade will change their names to something else and start campaigning for dogs to be able to identify as cats.

You won’t stop talking about it until you get your own way basically.
[Post edited 12 Sep 20:18]
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:21 - Sep 12 with 555 viewsJango

European governments now believe that it has been a mistake to back Remainers such as Tony Blair and Lord Mandelson, who have links in Brussels and Paris, in their efforts to use delays to the Brexit deadline to keep Britain inside the EU.

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, has been active in encouraging Remain campaigners to press for extensions to the Article 50 process culminating in the recent House of Commons legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit this week.

President Macron held private meetings with Mr Blair this year to offer a two-year delay to Brexit, in order to give Remainers the chance to reverse the 2016 referendum.

“Remainers in the EU once saw merit in extension because it kept Britain in the EU. That is changing and it is changing fast in the capitals,” a senior EU diplomat said.

“It has not been helpful and has been a get out jail free card allowing the Westminster parliament to think they do not have to take responsibility for the withdrawal agreement.”
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:33 - Sep 12 with 517 viewssherpajacob

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:07 - Sep 12 by Jango

Who exactly is an expert in this?



Poll: Your favourite ever Swans shirt sponsor?

0
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:39 - Sep 12 with 498 viewsHighjack

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:21 - Sep 12 by Jango

European governments now believe that it has been a mistake to back Remainers such as Tony Blair and Lord Mandelson, who have links in Brussels and Paris, in their efforts to use delays to the Brexit deadline to keep Britain inside the EU.

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, has been active in encouraging Remain campaigners to press for extensions to the Article 50 process culminating in the recent House of Commons legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit this week.

President Macron held private meetings with Mr Blair this year to offer a two-year delay to Brexit, in order to give Remainers the chance to reverse the 2016 referendum.

“Remainers in the EU once saw merit in extension because it kept Britain in the EU. That is changing and it is changing fast in the capitals,” a senior EU diplomat said.

“It has not been helpful and has been a get out jail free card allowing the Westminster parliament to think they do not have to take responsibility for the withdrawal agreement.”


Blair should just f*ck off. He’s done enough damage to this world.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Poll: The official planetswans European election poll. Your vote goes to?

3
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:45 - Sep 12 with 490 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:33 - Sep 12 by sherpajacob



So he’s your expert? What experience has he got with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?
[Post edited 12 Sep 20:46]
0
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:55 - Sep 12 with 472 viewsmajorraglan

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:48 - Sep 12 by Jango

The Government’s yellowhammer report on planning assumptions for Brexit will go down in history as a key document in the struggle to achieve Brexit. Farcically it is not a statement of government policy and probably does not reflect the views of government. It is rather a piece of civil service advice, commissioned by we know not who, and compiled we know not where.

What is most striking is the almost complete absence of evidence in the document. What these ‘worst-case’ planning assumptions are based on is not vouchsafed to us. The title ‘HMG Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Assumptions’ does not make it clear whether these assumptions are proposals or have been adopted by government. The fact that the government intends to issue a new document suggests the former, but we are left in the dark.

It is not even clear whether the title refers only to the opening section of the paper or to the entire document. Nor is there any clarity on what is meant by ‘worst-case’. The document is silent on whether these are unlikely events for which any responsible government has to prepare. The government presumably has plans for dealing with all sorts of unlikely events including asteroid strikes, hurricanes or tsunamis. An earlier version of the document leaked to the Sunday Times suggests that the assumptions were more central than worst-case, but none of this is clear in the version published yesterday.

Yellowhammer is full of ‘woulds’ and ‘coulds’ but also contains some more confident predictions that things ‘will’ happen. The latter include a confident prediction that companies’ preparedness for no deal on October 31st will deteriorate between now and then. This is simply unknowable and can obviously be countered by official awareness campaigns, but there is no mention of this.

After eight opening paragraphs in this vein the document moves on to what is termed ‘Key Planning Assumptions’. This section starts by pointing out that November 1st is unhelpfully a Friday with no reference to the possibility of declaring this a bank holiday to give a long weekend to try out new arrangements.

In a chink of light, the document does say that:

‘France has built infrastructure and IT system (sic) to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime’.

It omits any mention of claims by Calais port and the regional President, Xavier Bertrand, that Calais is prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Such preparedness is then ignored and the documents gets to what it considers the nub of the issue:

‘on day 1 between 50-85% HGVs travelling via the short Calais straights may not be ready for French customs… which could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels as unready vehicles will fill the ports and block flow’.

The worst disruption could then last for up to 3 months. After that improvements may only reach a maximum of 70 per cent of current levels as hauliers become more prepared. There is no mention here of French intransigence – only the lack of preparation of UK hauliers. Firms could, the document opines, face delays of up to 2.5 days with additional difficulties in returning to the UK. Despite this horrendous loss of income logistics firms will, it seems, still be extremely slow in getting their act together on customs.

French customs have for months been handing out leaflets on customs requirements to drivers, but it seems that we must assume a worst case in which most of this advice is ignored. Nor apparently should we assume that HMG could manage even this worst case by conducting its own document checks outside Dover. Apparently, the worst case is that HMG would simply sit back and watch the chaos unfold. The mind boggles.

What will all of this unmanaged chaos do to UK supplies? The prediction is that:

‘with significant disruption lasting for up to six months [if unmitigated] this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies… any disruption to medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease…. certain types of fresh food supplies would decrease’.

All of these apocalyptic scenarios have of course been enthusiastically broadcast by the press and media, but what do they really amount to? Apparently if UK logistics firms transporting to the Continent find themselves unable to deal with French customs forms for six months or more, and HMG finds itself quite unable to deal with this unlikely situation in any practical manner, queues will build up at Dover and perhaps at other roll-on/ roll-off ports. Well yes indeed. However, the report does quietly admit that other ports are prepared.

It does not point out that Dover is only the UK’s ninth largest port, handling only 5 per cent of the UK’s overall tonnage. Nor is there any speculation on how hauliers may switch to other routes to avoid congestion at Calais (which is precisely what the Calais port authorities fear). There is also no mention of precautions already taken by foreign producers who will wish to protect their UK markets.

The report is yet another horrendous example of Project Fear, whether intentional or not. It conjures up a series of lurid scenarios which are both unlikely to happen and if they did could be managed with straightforward control measures. No account is taken of firms taking elementary precautions to protect their markets and profits. It is not even comprehensive. No mention is made of just-in-time manufacturers or of the need to cull cows in Northern Ireland. In short, this is a poor-quality report written in a way that would obviously cause maximum unease. We should ignore it.

Graham Gudgin is chief economic advisor at Policy Exchange and co-editor of Briefings for Brexit.

Graham Gudgin is Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) at Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the Ulster University and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. He was Director of the ESRC's Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998, when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. He founded a forecasting consultancy in Northern Ireland, which was later sold to Oxford Economics with whom he worked for a number of years. Prior to moving to Northern Ireland he was a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group (CEPG) under the late Wynne Godley, and Economics Fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. Together with Ken Coutts at the CBR, and colleagues at Ulster University, an econometric model of the UK economy has been constructed to undertake policy simulations for the UK economy, most recently assessing the impact of Brexit.


The Yellowhammer report has been put together by the Government using experts in the Civil Service and from other areas. This was the Base line report, least worst things that was expected to happen now it’s been badged as the worst case.

Dover only 9th busiest port is a “Raabesque” statement, FFS! It’s a ferry port and nearly all its tonnage is road freight, lots of it moving stuff in and out of the country including food. It’s busy 24/7. The 5th busiest port is Milford Haven, if we had to rely on bringing in food through there we’d starve.
Hauliers changing routes...there is limited capacity which is why Grayling paid for extra capacity as there aren’t that many options. Dover Calais, Dover Dunkirk is the shortest crossing with the biggest ships, Newhaven Dieppe is the next port down and it has much smaller ships and a 4 hours crossing. Getting to Newhaven which is a very small port is a pain and the infrastructure is poor. The P and O and DFDS ships which are massive can do 2 trips to a single Newhaven crossing.

Some of these experts are idiots.
[Post edited 12 Sep 20:57]
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:01 - Sep 12 with 455 viewsJackSomething

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 20:45 - Sep 12 by Jango

So he’s your expert? What experience has he got with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?
[Post edited 12 Sep 20:46]


What experience does your linked article writer have with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?

Seeing as a quick Google reveals that only Algeria (in 1962!), Greenland and Saint Barthelemy have left the EU before, I doubt there are many experts who have experience in this field and even fewer who can accurately model those examples to our situation.

It's taken someone minutes to point out the first inaccuracy in your experts article, so it's not looking good for him to meet your criteria.

We're reaching desperation point for those who cannot admit Brexit is a disaster.

You know, Hobbes, some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants don't help.

2
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:17 - Sep 12 with 420 viewslondonlisa2001

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:48 - Sep 12 by Jango

The Government’s yellowhammer report on planning assumptions for Brexit will go down in history as a key document in the struggle to achieve Brexit. Farcically it is not a statement of government policy and probably does not reflect the views of government. It is rather a piece of civil service advice, commissioned by we know not who, and compiled we know not where.

What is most striking is the almost complete absence of evidence in the document. What these ‘worst-case’ planning assumptions are based on is not vouchsafed to us. The title ‘HMG Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Assumptions’ does not make it clear whether these assumptions are proposals or have been adopted by government. The fact that the government intends to issue a new document suggests the former, but we are left in the dark.

It is not even clear whether the title refers only to the opening section of the paper or to the entire document. Nor is there any clarity on what is meant by ‘worst-case’. The document is silent on whether these are unlikely events for which any responsible government has to prepare. The government presumably has plans for dealing with all sorts of unlikely events including asteroid strikes, hurricanes or tsunamis. An earlier version of the document leaked to the Sunday Times suggests that the assumptions were more central than worst-case, but none of this is clear in the version published yesterday.

Yellowhammer is full of ‘woulds’ and ‘coulds’ but also contains some more confident predictions that things ‘will’ happen. The latter include a confident prediction that companies’ preparedness for no deal on October 31st will deteriorate between now and then. This is simply unknowable and can obviously be countered by official awareness campaigns, but there is no mention of this.

After eight opening paragraphs in this vein the document moves on to what is termed ‘Key Planning Assumptions’. This section starts by pointing out that November 1st is unhelpfully a Friday with no reference to the possibility of declaring this a bank holiday to give a long weekend to try out new arrangements.

In a chink of light, the document does say that:

‘France has built infrastructure and IT system (sic) to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime’.

It omits any mention of claims by Calais port and the regional President, Xavier Bertrand, that Calais is prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Such preparedness is then ignored and the documents gets to what it considers the nub of the issue:

‘on day 1 between 50-85% HGVs travelling via the short Calais straights may not be ready for French customs… which could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels as unready vehicles will fill the ports and block flow’.

The worst disruption could then last for up to 3 months. After that improvements may only reach a maximum of 70 per cent of current levels as hauliers become more prepared. There is no mention here of French intransigence – only the lack of preparation of UK hauliers. Firms could, the document opines, face delays of up to 2.5 days with additional difficulties in returning to the UK. Despite this horrendous loss of income logistics firms will, it seems, still be extremely slow in getting their act together on customs.

French customs have for months been handing out leaflets on customs requirements to drivers, but it seems that we must assume a worst case in which most of this advice is ignored. Nor apparently should we assume that HMG could manage even this worst case by conducting its own document checks outside Dover. Apparently, the worst case is that HMG would simply sit back and watch the chaos unfold. The mind boggles.

What will all of this unmanaged chaos do to UK supplies? The prediction is that:

‘with significant disruption lasting for up to six months [if unmitigated] this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies… any disruption to medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease…. certain types of fresh food supplies would decrease’.

All of these apocalyptic scenarios have of course been enthusiastically broadcast by the press and media, but what do they really amount to? Apparently if UK logistics firms transporting to the Continent find themselves unable to deal with French customs forms for six months or more, and HMG finds itself quite unable to deal with this unlikely situation in any practical manner, queues will build up at Dover and perhaps at other roll-on/ roll-off ports. Well yes indeed. However, the report does quietly admit that other ports are prepared.

It does not point out that Dover is only the UK’s ninth largest port, handling only 5 per cent of the UK’s overall tonnage. Nor is there any speculation on how hauliers may switch to other routes to avoid congestion at Calais (which is precisely what the Calais port authorities fear). There is also no mention of precautions already taken by foreign producers who will wish to protect their UK markets.

The report is yet another horrendous example of Project Fear, whether intentional or not. It conjures up a series of lurid scenarios which are both unlikely to happen and if they did could be managed with straightforward control measures. No account is taken of firms taking elementary precautions to protect their markets and profits. It is not even comprehensive. No mention is made of just-in-time manufacturers or of the need to cull cows in Northern Ireland. In short, this is a poor-quality report written in a way that would obviously cause maximum unease. We should ignore it.

Graham Gudgin is chief economic advisor at Policy Exchange and co-editor of Briefings for Brexit.

Graham Gudgin is Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) at Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the Ulster University and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. He was Director of the ESRC's Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998, when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. He founded a forecasting consultancy in Northern Ireland, which was later sold to Oxford Economics with whom he worked for a number of years. Prior to moving to Northern Ireland he was a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group (CEPG) under the late Wynne Godley, and Economics Fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. Together with Ken Coutts at the CBR, and colleagues at Ulster University, an econometric model of the UK economy has been constructed to undertake policy simulations for the UK economy, most recently assessing the impact of Brexit.


The reason there’s a complete lack of evidence in the document is because they’ve only published a fraction of it. The actual document is far, far longer. With a huge amount of detail,

And everyone knows who prepared it, why they prepared it, who asked for it and the base case assumption underlying it. It is the government’s most likely scenario. The reason it doesn’t specify what sort of worst case it is is because it’s not a worst case. It’s a base case. There is a document called Black Swan which actually deals with the worst case. Rationing of food, fuel, mobilisation of the army and declaration of a state of emergency and martial law are all dealt with.

The person writing this BS is being so disingenuous there are only two possibilities - one is that he’s a complete moron and the second is that he is deliberately lying.

I cannot believe that you can see how much evidence there is that this document is a fudged version and continue with this utter nonsense.

As I’ve said before, the actual document will be published at some point. Let’s hope it’s released in time for people to open their eyes to this.
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:21 - Sep 12 with 406 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:01 - Sep 12 by JackSomething

What experience does your linked article writer have with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?

Seeing as a quick Google reveals that only Algeria (in 1962!), Greenland and Saint Barthelemy have left the EU before, I doubt there are many experts who have experience in this field and even fewer who can accurately model those examples to our situation.

It's taken someone minutes to point out the first inaccuracy in your experts article, so it's not looking good for him to meet your criteria.

We're reaching desperation point for those who cannot admit Brexit is a disaster.


What experience does your linked article writer have with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?

Which is why I asked who exactly is an expert.
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:23 - Sep 12 with 398 viewsexiledclaseboy

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:17 - Sep 12 by londonlisa2001

The reason there’s a complete lack of evidence in the document is because they’ve only published a fraction of it. The actual document is far, far longer. With a huge amount of detail,

And everyone knows who prepared it, why they prepared it, who asked for it and the base case assumption underlying it. It is the government’s most likely scenario. The reason it doesn’t specify what sort of worst case it is is because it’s not a worst case. It’s a base case. There is a document called Black Swan which actually deals with the worst case. Rationing of food, fuel, mobilisation of the army and declaration of a state of emergency and martial law are all dealt with.

The person writing this BS is being so disingenuous there are only two possibilities - one is that he’s a complete moron and the second is that he is deliberately lying.

I cannot believe that you can see how much evidence there is that this document is a fudged version and continue with this utter nonsense.

As I’ve said before, the actual document will be published at some point. Let’s hope it’s released in time for people to open their eyes to this.


Where’s this Black Swan thing come from?

Poll: Tory leader

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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:27 - Sep 12 with 382 viewsbluey_the_blue

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:01 - Sep 12 by JackSomething

What experience does your linked article writer have with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?

Seeing as a quick Google reveals that only Algeria (in 1962!), Greenland and Saint Barthelemy have left the EU before, I doubt there are many experts who have experience in this field and even fewer who can accurately model those examples to our situation.

It's taken someone minutes to point out the first inaccuracy in your experts article, so it's not looking good for him to meet your criteria.

We're reaching desperation point for those who cannot admit Brexit is a disaster.


So Algeria left EU 30 years before EU came into being, eh?
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:31 - Sep 12 with 370 viewslondonlisa2001

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:23 - Sep 12 by exiledclaseboy

Where’s this Black Swan thing come from?


Well there have been reports of it for ages, but it’s also been confirmed this week by the Times journo that broke yellowhammer. Rosamund Urwin (the journo) tweeted today:

“"This is not Project Fear — it’s what we face after no-deal Brexit". Operation Yellowhammer is not the worst case scenario (that's Black Swan), this is the government's "base" scenario”

Also a LibDem candidate has tweeted saying they’ve been sent parts of it as well,
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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:31 - Sep 12 with 366 viewslonglostjack

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 19:48 - Sep 12 by Jango

The Government’s yellowhammer report on planning assumptions for Brexit will go down in history as a key document in the struggle to achieve Brexit. Farcically it is not a statement of government policy and probably does not reflect the views of government. It is rather a piece of civil service advice, commissioned by we know not who, and compiled we know not where.

What is most striking is the almost complete absence of evidence in the document. What these ‘worst-case’ planning assumptions are based on is not vouchsafed to us. The title ‘HMG Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Assumptions’ does not make it clear whether these assumptions are proposals or have been adopted by government. The fact that the government intends to issue a new document suggests the former, but we are left in the dark.

It is not even clear whether the title refers only to the opening section of the paper or to the entire document. Nor is there any clarity on what is meant by ‘worst-case’. The document is silent on whether these are unlikely events for which any responsible government has to prepare. The government presumably has plans for dealing with all sorts of unlikely events including asteroid strikes, hurricanes or tsunamis. An earlier version of the document leaked to the Sunday Times suggests that the assumptions were more central than worst-case, but none of this is clear in the version published yesterday.

Yellowhammer is full of ‘woulds’ and ‘coulds’ but also contains some more confident predictions that things ‘will’ happen. The latter include a confident prediction that companies’ preparedness for no deal on October 31st will deteriorate between now and then. This is simply unknowable and can obviously be countered by official awareness campaigns, but there is no mention of this.

After eight opening paragraphs in this vein the document moves on to what is termed ‘Key Planning Assumptions’. This section starts by pointing out that November 1st is unhelpfully a Friday with no reference to the possibility of declaring this a bank holiday to give a long weekend to try out new arrangements.

In a chink of light, the document does say that:

‘France has built infrastructure and IT system (sic) to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime’.

It omits any mention of claims by Calais port and the regional President, Xavier Bertrand, that Calais is prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Such preparedness is then ignored and the documents gets to what it considers the nub of the issue:

‘on day 1 between 50-85% HGVs travelling via the short Calais straights may not be ready for French customs… which could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels as unready vehicles will fill the ports and block flow’.

The worst disruption could then last for up to 3 months. After that improvements may only reach a maximum of 70 per cent of current levels as hauliers become more prepared. There is no mention here of French intransigence – only the lack of preparation of UK hauliers. Firms could, the document opines, face delays of up to 2.5 days with additional difficulties in returning to the UK. Despite this horrendous loss of income logistics firms will, it seems, still be extremely slow in getting their act together on customs.

French customs have for months been handing out leaflets on customs requirements to drivers, but it seems that we must assume a worst case in which most of this advice is ignored. Nor apparently should we assume that HMG could manage even this worst case by conducting its own document checks outside Dover. Apparently, the worst case is that HMG would simply sit back and watch the chaos unfold. The mind boggles.

What will all of this unmanaged chaos do to UK supplies? The prediction is that:

‘with significant disruption lasting for up to six months [if unmitigated] this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies… any disruption to medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease…. certain types of fresh food supplies would decrease’.

All of these apocalyptic scenarios have of course been enthusiastically broadcast by the press and media, but what do they really amount to? Apparently if UK logistics firms transporting to the Continent find themselves unable to deal with French customs forms for six months or more, and HMG finds itself quite unable to deal with this unlikely situation in any practical manner, queues will build up at Dover and perhaps at other roll-on/ roll-off ports. Well yes indeed. However, the report does quietly admit that other ports are prepared.

It does not point out that Dover is only the UK’s ninth largest port, handling only 5 per cent of the UK’s overall tonnage. Nor is there any speculation on how hauliers may switch to other routes to avoid congestion at Calais (which is precisely what the Calais port authorities fear). There is also no mention of precautions already taken by foreign producers who will wish to protect their UK markets.

The report is yet another horrendous example of Project Fear, whether intentional or not. It conjures up a series of lurid scenarios which are both unlikely to happen and if they did could be managed with straightforward control measures. No account is taken of firms taking elementary precautions to protect their markets and profits. It is not even comprehensive. No mention is made of just-in-time manufacturers or of the need to cull cows in Northern Ireland. In short, this is a poor-quality report written in a way that would obviously cause maximum unease. We should ignore it.

Graham Gudgin is chief economic advisor at Policy Exchange and co-editor of Briefings for Brexit.

Graham Gudgin is Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) at Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the Ulster University and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. He was Director of the ESRC's Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998, when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. He founded a forecasting consultancy in Northern Ireland, which was later sold to Oxford Economics with whom he worked for a number of years. Prior to moving to Northern Ireland he was a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group (CEPG) under the late Wynne Godley, and Economics Fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. Together with Ken Coutts at the CBR, and colleagues at Ulster University, an econometric model of the UK economy has been constructed to undertake policy simulations for the UK economy, most recently assessing the impact of Brexit.


Gudgin is Chief Economic Advisor to Policy Exchange. He’s no doubt well remunerated. Any idea who’s funding Policy Exchange Jango?

Poll: Who is responsible for the Brexit fiasco?

1
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:32 - Sep 12 with 366 viewsLeonWasGod

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:01 - Sep 12 by JackSomething

What experience does your linked article writer have with regards to the impact to the economy of countries leaving the EU?

Seeing as a quick Google reveals that only Algeria (in 1962!), Greenland and Saint Barthelemy have left the EU before, I doubt there are many experts who have experience in this field and even fewer who can accurately model those examples to our situation.

It's taken someone minutes to point out the first inaccuracy in your experts article, so it's not looking good for him to meet your criteria.

We're reaching desperation point for those who cannot admit Brexit is a disaster.


It’s Graham Gudgin again, the bloke described by a proper academic as “using evidence the way a drunk uses a lamp post – for support, not illumination”.

Now I realise that an ad hominem attack isn’t positive, but this is the guy who denies the widely held view of Catholic persecution in NI, believes the border in Ireland isn’t an issue for Brexit, and was widely criticised by a range of respected practitioners and academics for his unscientific rubbishing of economic Brexit forecasts. Wherever he pops up he seems to court controversy.

I’ll have a look at what he’s written later. I don’t understand his logic about Yellowhammer being ‘project fear’, seeing the the government denied its existence, then admitted it when rumbled but said it was nothing to do with them, then admitted it was when rumbled again, then had to be forced to release it, and then changed the titles because Gove admitted in live TV is was the expected case (as confirmed by the Doctor who worked on it and proven by the earlier leaked text.

Strange way of scaring people by not wanting to tell them about it
2
Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:33 - Sep 12 with 361 viewsexiledclaseboy

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:31 - Sep 12 by londonlisa2001

Well there have been reports of it for ages, but it’s also been confirmed this week by the Times journo that broke yellowhammer. Rosamund Urwin (the journo) tweeted today:

“"This is not Project Fear — it’s what we face after no-deal Brexit". Operation Yellowhammer is not the worst case scenario (that's Black Swan), this is the government's "base" scenario”

Also a LibDem candidate has tweeted saying they’ve been sent parts of it as well,


Interesting. I’ve heard of black swan theory/events which Brexit could conceivably be construed as (at a stretch). Never heard rumours of such a document though.
[Post edited 12 Sep 21:35]

Poll: Tory leader

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Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:34 - Sep 12 with 354 viewsJango

Countdown to the end of Democracy in the UK on 21:17 - Sep 12 by londonlisa2001

The reason there’s a complete lack of evidence in the document is because they’ve only published a fraction of it. The actual document is far, far longer. With a huge amount of detail,

And everyone knows who prepared it, why they prepared it, who asked for it and the base case assumption underlying it. It is the government’s most likely scenario. The reason it doesn’t specify what sort of worst case it is is because it’s not a worst case. It’s a base case. There is a document called Black Swan which actually deals with the worst case. Rationing of food, fuel, mobilisation of the army and declaration of a state of emergency and martial law are all dealt with.

The person writing this BS is being so disingenuous there are only two possibilities - one is that he’s a complete moron and the second is that he is deliberately lying.

I cannot believe that you can see how much evidence there is that this document is a fudged version and continue with this utter nonsense.

As I’ve said before, the actual document will be published at some point. Let’s hope it’s released in time for people to open their eyes to this.


Who actually prepared it? You seem to know all the answers Lisa or claim to know someone that does. I put a copy of the gents honours and experience up as a bit of evidence that this bloke obviously has some sort of clue what he’s talking about. As ECB said, it’s only his take on things but the usual planetswans experts know better.
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