| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:59 - Jan 28 with 3177 views | PozuelosSideys |
Think this is a pulse survey mate |  |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 08:29 - Jan 28 with 3097 views | Lohengrin |
"...the high political opacity surrounding Brexit will most certainly prolong, and even amplify, uncertainty."
You're right, Djack. I've never heard anybody down the pub express their concerns in those terms.  |  |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 14:50 - Jan 28 with 3000 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:59 - Jan 28 by PozuelosSideys |
Think this is a pulse survey mate |
...and? |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 14:54 - Jan 28 with 2995 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 08:29 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
"...the high political opacity surrounding Brexit will most certainly prolong, and even amplify, uncertainty."
You're right, Djack. I've never heard anybody down the pub express their concerns in those terms. |
You heard this...
Prior to the EU referendum, the pro-Brexit UK politician Michael Gove famously declared (in his denunciation of the overwhelming majority of economists who warned of the potential economic damage caused by Brexit) “that people in this country have had enough of experts”.
A load of guff from Gove who was afraid of facts outing his dogmatic bollix. Thank you for your comment, anyway. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 15:19 - Jan 28 with 2973 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
The man down the pub had no interest in what it would do to the economy.
#Pubfact |  |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 15:51 - Jan 28 with 2940 views | perchrockjack |
TOM
With respect ,if a Tory said tomorrow was Monday ,you wouldn't believe them |  |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 16:21 - Jan 28 with 2919 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 15:51 - Jan 28 by perchrockjack |
TOM
With respect ,if a Tory said tomorrow was Monday ,you wouldn't believe them |
This has nothing to do with Torys Perch
I heard nothing about any economy worries when I was in the pub talking about Brexit | |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 17:06 - Jan 28 with 2877 views | perchrockjack |
Tom
Is what I say wrong
Would you ever believe anything a Tory stated | |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 18:28 - Jan 28 with 2831 views | Lohengrin |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 14:54 - Jan 28 by DJack |
You heard this...
Prior to the EU referendum, the pro-Brexit UK politician Michael Gove famously declared (in his denunciation of the overwhelming majority of economists who warned of the potential economic damage caused by Brexit) “that people in this country have had enough of experts”.
A load of guff from Gove who was afraid of facts outing his dogmatic bollix. Thank you for your comment, anyway. |
I do remember that but you haven't given the full quote, what Gove actually said was that "people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations, from acronyms, saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong." The quote takes on an entirely different hue when read in full. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 18:33 - Jan 28 with 2826 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 17:06 - Jan 28 by perchrockjack |
Tom
Is what I say wrong
Would you ever believe anything a Tory stated |
Depends what they are talking about Perchie
I know some Tory voters they seem to be ok with telling the truth | |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 18:49 - Jan 28 with 2805 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 18:28 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
I do remember that but you haven't given the full quote, what Gove actually said was that "people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations, from acronyms, saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong." The quote takes on an entirely different hue when read in full. |
Two things, he provided nothing to back up that assertion and secondly it seems to be a common theme for the Tories to ignore(or twist out of context) the experts advice/evidence when that advice is contrary to Tory dogma/ideology. The advice on alcohol consumption be a recent example. I do accept however, that politicians in general do this but in recent memory the Tories are "the worst" culprits. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:00 - Jan 28 with 2789 views | Lohengrin |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 18:49 - Jan 28 by DJack |
Two things, he provided nothing to back up that assertion and secondly it seems to be a common theme for the Tories to ignore(or twist out of context) the experts advice/evidence when that advice is contrary to Tory dogma/ideology. The advice on alcohol consumption be a recent example. I do accept however, that politicians in general do this but in recent memory the Tories are "the worst" culprits. |
I hadn't noticed that as regards the Tories, to be honest. They tend to trot out the very best, most glibly plausible 'experts' that money can buy to sing in their whore's opera. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:07 - Jan 28 with 2780 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:00 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
I hadn't noticed that as regards the Tories, to be honest. They tend to trot out the very best, most glibly plausible 'experts' that money can buy to sing in their whore's opera. |
As you've often pointed out we now have a political elite uninterested or divorced from their electorate. The "experts" are often not experts in the field that they've been brought out to comment on(if at all in any field) and they deliberately take information out of context or misrepresent the message from that data.  | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:20 - Jan 28 with 2761 views | Lohengrin |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:07 - Jan 28 by DJack |
As you've often pointed out we now have a political elite uninterested or divorced from their electorate. The "experts" are often not experts in the field that they've been brought out to comment on(if at all in any field) and they deliberately take information out of context or misrepresent the message from that data. |
It's hucksterism, nothing more. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:23 - Jan 28 with 2756 views | exiledclaseboy |
We’re in the post-truth age in which expert opinion and actual policy iscderided in favour of appeals to voters’ baser instincts. trump got himself elected doing it. |  |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:30 - Jan 28 with 2745 views | Lohengrin |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:23 - Jan 28 by exiledclaseboy |
We’re in the post-truth age in which expert opinion and actual policy iscderided in favour of appeals to voters’ baser instincts. trump got himself elected doing it. |
How would you define 'expert' opinion? Would it be somebody from the Adam Smith Institute who holds forth on the unalloyed benefit of global free trade from the dais of a lecture theatre or would it be the thoughts of a manufacturing engineer who works in British industry. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:31 - Jan 28 with 2745 views | exiledclaseboy |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:30 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
How would you define 'expert' opinion? Would it be somebody from the Adam Smith Institute who holds forth on the unalloyed benefit of global free trade from the dais of a lecture theatre or would it be the thoughts of a manufacturing engineer who works in British industry. |
Both. | |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:31 - Jan 28 with 2745 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:20 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
It's hucksterism, nothing more. |
I had to google that you tvvat!
Thanks.  | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:35 - Jan 28 with 2736 views | Lohengrin |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:31 - Jan 28 by exiledclaseboy |
Both. |
Mugwump.  | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:36 - Jan 28 with 2732 views | Lohengrin |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:31 - Jan 28 by DJack |
I had to google that you tvvat!
Thanks. |
Only once, you own the word now. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:38 - Jan 28 with 2727 views | exiledclaseboy |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:35 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
Mugwump. |
Numerous times.  | |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:38 - Jan 28 with 2726 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:36 - Jan 28 by Lohengrin |
Only once, you own the word now. |
Possibly not with my atrocious memory.  | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 21:17 - Jan 28 with 2673 views | PozuelosSideys |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 14:50 - Jan 28 by DJack |
...and? |
..and its data taken from SME's about how they view the world and what they feel their future holds. Nothing wrong with that and i absolutely understand their nervousness about it all. They are just saying the same things as the big financial businesses are. "Get on with it so we know where we stand!" Businesses dont like risk.
At the moment though, the numbers and the order books are telling a different story. | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:13 - Jan 29 with 2633 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 21:17 - Jan 28 by PozuelosSideys |
..and its data taken from SME's about how they view the world and what they feel their future holds. Nothing wrong with that and i absolutely understand their nervousness about it all. They are just saying the same things as the big financial businesses are. "Get on with it so we know where we stand!" Businesses dont like risk.
At the moment though, the numbers and the order books are telling a different story. |
In the article conclusion was this:
"In future, the rather incoherent and intransigent “no deal is better than a bad deal” negotiating stance of the current UK government coupled with the high political opacity surrounding Brexit will most certainly prolong, and even amplify, uncertainty levels in businesses of all sizes. This protracted process is very likely to be detrimental to the country’s economy, especially in the short to medium term."
The last statement also matches the prediction of a few on here (take a bow LondonLisa).
Also a paper, by CESifo, referenced in the article concludes thus:
"Natural experiments in macroeconomics are rare, but when they occur they offer unique
insights into causal mechanisms and the validity of major assumptions underlying macroeconomic
models. The unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 offers
such a window on causal relationships. Britain’s future disintegration from the world’s
largest economy and trading block allows us to study the aggregate consequences of a
sudden and fundamental change in expectations regarding future economic prospects.
In this paper, we exploit the natural experiment of the Brexit vote in order to assess
whether and to what extent anticipated policy changes impact economic activity before
they are actually implemented. We find that this is indeed the case. By the third quarter
of 2017 the Brexit vote has caused a reduction of GDP by approximately 1.3 percent. On
current forecasts the effect is likely to grow over the coming years. Zooming in on the
14
behavior of the private sector, we find that households and businesses have adjusted their
behavior in anticipation of Brexit, as macroeconomic theory predicts.
However, while the Brexit referendum shapes Britain’s economic present in addition
to its future it also raised economic uncertainty. The binary choice question “Should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
left important issues open. And while the direction of future economic policies seems
clear, the exact extent of Britain’s economic disintegration from Europe remains unclear.
Against this background, we show that a wider dispersion of future economic outcomes,
that is, heightened economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty, accounts for close
to half of the observed effects. Stripping the overall output loss due to the Brexit vote
of the effect of heightened uncertainty–which is arguably temporary–leaves us with
anticipation effects of households and firms, which have downgraded their expectations
about future incomes. These effects are not only large, but to the extent that they reflect
long-run outcomes, they are also there to stay"
but PikeyPaul is loving it! | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:41 - Jan 29 with 2619 views | PozuelosSideys |
Whats your point though?
Im very much in the Brexit camp, but never ever for one second believed it would be all sunshine and lollipops. Im more than well aware of the huge amount of untangling, fudging and grey areas that there are and will be for decades. I have to deal with piles of the stuff and we havent even got to the good bits yet.
I do fundamentally believe that in the medium to long term that this result will be seen as a positive for the UK. I also want to see the EU do very well for itself - financially, and for its people, whilst completely overhauling the current mess the politicians have created - as it makes no sense to have the bloc struggle on our doorstep. None of us want neighbours who dump their old setees in the garden do we? (then again, we are probably seen as the Hyacinth Bucket's.)
In the short term its possible we tank, but we will rebound (look at the inidcators since the vote for trend data). Those who think the world is going to fall apart because of this are naive. Too much pessimism is bad for you and they need to get out more.
But then, opinions are opinions and the vast majority on here will disagree with every point ive made. Time will tell.
Edit. Btw.. that 1.3% figure is a modeled number. If the base assumptions are not on point for the CESifo model in the beginning, then the variables will be all out of whack. The conclusions they make will be at best, iffy. At worst, wrong. They also assume, based on their modeling that there will be a negative multiplier effect (as noted in above) in GDP loss YoY. There is logic to that assuming they have factored in the correct behavioural and risk metrics. The scenario planning has been pretty sub par in hindsight as recent noise would suggest. Art, not science as it were.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-121
This chart does just scream out how the uncertainty has effected GDP though doesnt it? But the trends are upwards. Id bet their notion of a negative multiplier YoY is bollox [Post edited 29 Jan 2018 1:33]
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| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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