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Swansea financial sweepstake 09:57 - Jun 5 with 10226 viewsShaky

for fun and education!

So I posted a chart in the long Potter thread that summarised the club's financial position, highlighting the relationship between the purchase of players and how they have been financed; overwhelmingly through the use of various forms of debt.



(Note: There's a typo on the 2017 total: should be £91.7m Not £97.1m)

What is interesting is to try to analyse where we stand today after the changes that have happened since the end of the last financial year 31 July 2017.

The asset side of that equation is relatively straight forward to forecast based on player ins and outs, and probably looks roughly as follows as of right now:



However, the player registrations component will obviously change before the end of the financial year due to transfers both in and out.

With that the financing needs also change. We are fairly certain that no new share capital will be provided by Kaplan & Co, but one way that the financing side will look better is by making profits such as on player sales that will boost shareholders' funds on the balance sheet. (the formula for that is last year's plus this year's profit after tax less any dividends paid).

As such the good news is that I estimate that as of right now profit on player sales is around £52 million for the current 2018 financial year to date.

The bad news is that despite this I still reckon the club will make a loss for the year:



However, the transfer season remains young, and estimates of the final 2018 tally for profit on player sales and any other metrics you want to take a stab at is now open until the close of business on 31st July.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 19:43 - Jun 5 with 1214 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 19:31 - Jun 5 by londonlisa2001

I understood it fine Shaky.

I attempted to point out that ignoring player trading was missing quite an important part of the way our financials work but you wouldn’t accept what I was saying.

What you are doing now is attempting to include player trading in your numbers which is what I said at the time was needed.

And your first statement is incorrect.


Bullshit.

You dismissed the issue of the negative working capital as a timing issue. As accountantss always do, who don't understand these sorts of issues.

Now we are about to face the reality of the going concern issue I highlighted dropping out of the prem.

You say I denied the possibility of selling players? Not true at all. I highlighted the considerable difficulty of raising sufficient cash through player sales to make a big dent in that debt position, while at the same time getting the wage bill down sufficiently to stop bleeding cash on Championship income levels.

Is management up to the task. My gut instinct says no without hesitation, but I sincerely hope they can get things sufficiently under control that the club doesn't go bust in the medium term.

As for my first statement about the real debt position adjusted for working capital, I am confident it is in the ballpark.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 19:43 - Jun 5 with 1214 viewsplasjack

Who is responsible for paying HMRC, as Aston Villa, has just sacked the person for forgetting, so are in a winding up situation.
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 20:00 - Jun 5 with 1199 viewsTheResurrection

Swansea financial sweepstake on 16:41 - Jun 5 by Shaky

i wasn't actually going to respond to that, because you proved my point offering up a prime example of a bunch of banalities without any kind of substance.

But it jogged my memory. You have plagerised much of that from some dross Lisa wrote a while back, haven't you? Why?
[Post edited 5 Jun 16:43]


What? Fack no. I knocked that up in between appointments at work. It took all of 30 seconds and no thinking whatsoever, let alone rrepeating something someone else said, which I can't remember seeing even, actually.

Let me ask you something, are you that desperate to find some work you're trying to hook yourself up somehow?

You don't need to be George Soros to understand the pathetically simple points I made earlier.

It seems you have to be dark and shady and probably up to no good to make things sound more complicated when you're hawking your services out to all and sundry though.

Oh, and your paranoia tablets are wearing off again I note 😂

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 20:19 - Jun 5 with 1175 viewslondonlisa2001

Swansea financial sweepstake on 19:43 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Bullshit.

You dismissed the issue of the negative working capital as a timing issue. As accountantss always do, who don't understand these sorts of issues.

Now we are about to face the reality of the going concern issue I highlighted dropping out of the prem.

You say I denied the possibility of selling players? Not true at all. I highlighted the considerable difficulty of raising sufficient cash through player sales to make a big dent in that debt position, while at the same time getting the wage bill down sufficiently to stop bleeding cash on Championship income levels.

Is management up to the task. My gut instinct says no without hesitation, but I sincerely hope they can get things sufficiently under control that the club doesn't go bust in the medium term.

As for my first statement about the real debt position adjusted for working capital, I am confident it is in the ballpark.


Nope, I didn’t.

The whole point of the conversation was me saying you couldn’t take one figure, ignore subsequent player trading and also ignore the fact we wouldn’t have bought the players we bought if we’d gone down.

To recap - if we’d gone down last season we’d have sold Gylfi and Llorente plus others and wouldn’t have bought Bony, Ayew, Clucas etc. So the deficit covered initially by the receipt of Pl money thus leaving a shortfall in operating budget would have been covered by player sales.

You insisted on only looking at one side of the equation.

And you can be as confident as you like. I don’t really care.
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 20:34 - Jun 5 with 1157 viewsPhil_S

Swansea financial sweepstake on 10:20 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Profit on player sales is what they have been sold for less their value in the books contributing to total player registrations on the balance sheet.

Value on the books is basically the signing cost multiplied by the percentage of the players' contract remaining.

So for example let's assume Mawson is sold for £25 million. He was signed in August 2016 on a 4 year contract which means he has 2 years left, for a reported £5.3 million to which I have added 10% for agents fees making his total cost £5.8m

Therefore the profit would be £25m received less book value of £5.8m x 50% = £22.4m.

Players sold/let go this financial year:
- Gylfi Siggurdsen
- Fernando Llorente
- Modou Barrow
- Franck Tabanou
- Marvin Emnes


How much are you basing the Gylfi sale on?
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 21:15 - Jun 5 with 1130 viewsomarjack

Swansea financial sweepstake on 16:06 - Jun 5 by Shaky

My estimates of 2018 YTD player sales:



The 2017 number is an actual taken from the accounts, but it matches my ex ante forecast using the same sources and approach very closely:



Thanks mate..

But can you clarify how you the player registration is at 24 m in year 2017 despite the fact the club announced spending 64 m on signings (which adds up almost perfectly according to Transfermarkt btw)..

Plus..how did you estimate the 34 m figure for player registrations for 2018 so far?

Thanks a lot man.
[Post edited 5 Jun 21:16]

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 21:35 - Jun 5 with 1111 viewsjackjackjackjack

Swansea financial sweepstake on 18:18 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Why do you ask, Dim?


If you're claiming we're £90m in debt, it would be good to know to whom we owe it.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:10 - Jun 5 with 1086 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 20:19 - Jun 5 by londonlisa2001

Nope, I didn’t.

The whole point of the conversation was me saying you couldn’t take one figure, ignore subsequent player trading and also ignore the fact we wouldn’t have bought the players we bought if we’d gone down.

To recap - if we’d gone down last season we’d have sold Gylfi and Llorente plus others and wouldn’t have bought Bony, Ayew, Clucas etc. So the deficit covered initially by the receipt of Pl money thus leaving a shortfall in operating budget would have been covered by player sales.

You insisted on only looking at one side of the equation.

And you can be as confident as you like. I don’t really care.


In your mind.

In your mind this is about the hypothetical situation at the end of last season if this and that and whatnot.

But it's history. Facts, with financial implications now recorded in the club's books.

The problem is now, and has always been. you haven;t the technical skills to translate events into financial implications.

Fin.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:12 - Jun 5 with 1083 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 20:34 - Jun 5 by Phil_S

How much are you basing the Gylfi sale on?


Think i mentioned it somewhere else but I am including him at a profit of £42.65m with a book value of £2m for total proceeds of £44.65m.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:21 - Jun 5 with 1072 viewslondonlisa2001

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:10 - Jun 5 by Shaky

In your mind.

In your mind this is about the hypothetical situation at the end of last season if this and that and whatnot.

But it's history. Facts, with financial implications now recorded in the club's books.

The problem is now, and has always been. you haven;t the technical skills to translate events into financial implications.

Fin.


Ok.

Lol.
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:24 - Jun 5 with 1067 viewsTheResurrection

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:12 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Think i mentioned it somewhere else but I am including him at a profit of £42.65m with a book value of £2m for total proceeds of £44.65m.


What about agents fees and any money due to Spurs?

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:25 - Jun 5 with 1063 viewsPhil_S

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:12 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Think i mentioned it somewhere else but I am including him at a profit of £42.65m with a book value of £2m for total proceeds of £44.65m.


We got less than £40m for him - the figures quoted will include all add ons
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:25 - Jun 5 with 1063 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 21:15 - Jun 5 by omarjack

Thanks mate..

But can you clarify how you the player registration is at 24 m in year 2017 despite the fact the club announced spending 64 m on signings (which adds up almost perfectly according to Transfermarkt btw)..

Plus..how did you estimate the 34 m figure for player registrations for 2018 so far?

Thanks a lot man.
[Post edited 5 Jun 21:16]


I am not following your first sentence.

Player registration at 24 m in 2017? Where do you get that from? You mean the £44.73m? That's players sold. The £64 million is players bought which is very close to my estimate of £66m.

Also not sure where you get the 34m player registrations 2018 from.

The way you calculate it is to take the 2017 figure, then add new player investments for 2018 (£52 million by my reckoning) then subtract the estimated amortisation charge for 2018 on both new signings and the old lot. As you can see from the estimate of profits I posted I am using a number £34.4 million.

I'm now with you (just back from the pub!)

But we have done this before. The amortisation charge is the signing fee evenly spread over the life of the player contract. So Clucas signed for £16m on a 3yr contract contributes a third of that annually to the amortisation charge.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:28 - Jun 5 with 1057 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:25 - Jun 5 by Phil_S

We got less than £40m for him - the figures quoted will include all add ons


Right, which has the effect of reducing profits and making cash-flow even more negative/debt higher.

Believe it or not I think I have been fairly conservative, in the sense I am not trying to exaggerate the seriousness of the financial situation.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:30 - Jun 5 with 1051 viewsPhil_S

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:28 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Right, which has the effect of reducing profits and making cash-flow even more negative/debt higher.

Believe it or not I think I have been fairly conservative, in the sense I am not trying to exaggerate the seriousness of the financial situation.


Its no secret that we have cashflow issues though - we have done ever since we got promoted to the Premier League

Its why we have sold players - that in itself isn't the problem - the p!ss poor way we have replaced them is
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:35 - Jun 5 with 1041 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:30 - Jun 5 by Phil_S

Its no secret that we have cashflow issues though - we have done ever since we got promoted to the Premier League

Its why we have sold players - that in itself isn't the problem - the p!ss poor way we have replaced them is


Bingo.

The sale of Siggy and Llorente were big fat get out of jail cards.

Which Jenkins flushed down the toilet.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:43 - Jun 5 with 1030 viewsTheResurrection

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:28 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Right, which has the effect of reducing profits and making cash-flow even more negative/debt higher.

Believe it or not I think I have been fairly conservative, in the sense I am not trying to exaggerate the seriousness of the financial situation.


No.

It has the effect that your lines and blocks and figures plucked from thin facking air are about as useful as Dav's god awful, shitty stats.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:50 - Jun 5 with 1012 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:43 - Jun 5 by TheResurrection

No.

It has the effect that your lines and blocks and figures plucked from thin facking air are about as useful as Dav's god awful, shitty stats.


You're dumb as a fcuking brick really, aren't you?

Unbelievable.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:53 - Jun 5 with 1008 viewsomarjack

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:25 - Jun 5 by Shaky

I am not following your first sentence.

Player registration at 24 m in 2017? Where do you get that from? You mean the £44.73m? That's players sold. The £64 million is players bought which is very close to my estimate of £66m.

Also not sure where you get the 34m player registrations 2018 from.

The way you calculate it is to take the 2017 figure, then add new player investments for 2018 (£52 million by my reckoning) then subtract the estimated amortisation charge for 2018 on both new signings and the old lot. As you can see from the estimate of profits I posted I am using a number £34.4 million.

I'm now with you (just back from the pub!)

But we have done this before. The amortisation charge is the signing fee evenly spread over the life of the player contract. So Clucas signed for £16m on a 3yr contract contributes a third of that annually to the amortisation charge.


I'm sorry I've made a mistake..I meant player AMORTISATION not REGISTRATION..

But the point is..

The club invested 64 m on signings yet it was registered as 24 m in amortisation..if you can be kind and breakdown that figure to me..

Maybe you can do the same with your estimate for 2018 (player amortisation:34.4 m)

I know I'm being pushy and all and thanks for your patience but that stuff interest me.
[Post edited 5 Jun 22:55]

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 23:04 - Jun 5 with 993 viewsShaky

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:53 - Jun 5 by omarjack

I'm sorry I've made a mistake..I meant player AMORTISATION not REGISTRATION..

But the point is..

The club invested 64 m on signings yet it was registered as 24 m in amortisation..if you can be kind and breakdown that figure to me..

Maybe you can do the same with your estimate for 2018 (player amortisation:34.4 m)

I know I'm being pushy and all and thanks for your patience but that stuff interest me.
[Post edited 5 Jun 22:55]


Have a look at this:



This club's financial year runs from 1st Aug to 31st July. That means if a player is signed in the January window, the amortisation charge is only 6 months worth.

Do you see the logic in the table?

I am basically adding these numbers up, then introducing some fudge factors to account for what is not covered in detail. Should be broadlyin the ballpark.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 23:30 - Jun 5 with 967 viewsTheResurrection

Swansea financial sweepstake on 22:50 - Jun 5 by Shaky

You're dumb as a fcuking brick really, aren't you?

Unbelievable.


Dumb as a brick pointing out mistake upon oversight upon typo upon misunderstanding upon facking hopeless, blabbering fraudster.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 23:32 - Jun 5 with 964 viewsTheResurrection

Swansea financial sweepstake on 23:04 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Have a look at this:



This club's financial year runs from 1st Aug to 31st July. That means if a player is signed in the January window, the amortisation charge is only 6 months worth.

Do you see the logic in the table?

I am basically adding these numbers up, then introducing some fudge factors to account for what is not covered in detail. Should be broadlyin the ballpark.


The Fudging Fraud....

I like that.

* BOX OFFICE POST ABOVE* TM I am the resurrection and i am the light. I couldn’t ever bring myself to hate you as i’d like
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Swansea financial sweepstake on 00:19 - Jun 6 with 937 viewsE20Jack

Swansea financial sweepstake on 18:00 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Well Dim, the club is currently £80-90 million in debt.

If you think that's fine, you're an idiot.

However, that really isn't news to many people on this site.

What concerns me significantly more is that the Trust - in the form of their financial affiliate - didn't understand that when I went through the last financials.

Does she now? I certainly hope so, because that is rather important in the context of arguing for supporters' best interests.


£80-£90m without context that proves to be accurate and unserviceable is bad, but none of that is relevant to this debate.

You attempted to to say a matter of weeks ago that player sales do not count in. The financial picture, now you are grasping that indeed the do matter and indeed have even presented it as a way to make our financial picture a lot better... you know the thing we were telling you about weeks ago?

I am glad you are takin the time to put what we are teaching you into a graph.
[Post edited 6 Jun 0:23]

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 00:19 - Jun 6 with 936 viewsE20Jack

Swansea financial sweepstake on 18:18 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Why do you ask, Dim?


In English please.

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Swansea financial sweepstake on 00:58 - Jun 6 with 917 viewsomarjack

Swansea financial sweepstake on 23:04 - Jun 5 by Shaky

Have a look at this:



This club's financial year runs from 1st Aug to 31st July. That means if a player is signed in the January window, the amortisation charge is only 6 months worth.

Do you see the logic in the table?

I am basically adding these numbers up, then introducing some fudge factors to account for what is not covered in detail. Should be broadlyin the ballpark.


Thanks Shaky


That was very helpful and detailed..Although I can see the "fudging" and I guess it's ok because in the end of the day we don't have the exact official figures all the time and we have to be content with figures in the ballpark.

Oh and for tossers who are insulting you for no reason..lol if you don't like the thread or the poster etc just fack off as the Resurrection would say.

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