| Swansea financial sweepstake 09:57 - Jun 5 with 17551 views | Shaky |
for fun and education!
So I posted a chart in the long Potter thread that summarised the club's financial position, highlighting the relationship between the purchase of players and how they have been financed; overwhelmingly through the use of various forms of debt.
(Note: There's a typo on the 2017 total: should be £91.7m Not £97.1m)
What is interesting is to try to analyse where we stand today after the changes that have happened since the end of the last financial year 31 July 2017.
The asset side of that equation is relatively straight forward to forecast based on player ins and outs, and probably looks roughly as follows as of right now:
However, the player registrations component will obviously change before the end of the financial year due to transfers both in and out.
With that the financing needs also change. We are fairly certain that no new share capital will be provided by Kaplan & Co, but one way that the financing side will look better is by making profits such as on player sales that will boost shareholders' funds on the balance sheet. (the formula for that is last year's plus this year's profit after tax less any dividends paid).
As such the good news is that I estimate that as of right now profit on player sales is around £52 million for the current 2018 financial year to date.
The bad news is that despite this I still reckon the club will make a loss for the year:
However, the transfer season remains young, and estimates of the final 2018 tally for profit on player sales and any other metrics you want to take a stab at is now open until the close of business on 31st July.
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| Swansea financial sweepstake on 16:58 - Aug 10 with 829 views | Shaky |
I must admit I have just noticed there was a typo on the balance sheet I posted earlier corrected below.
To be clear the last column is the pro forma for the balance sheet as of yesterday's close.
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| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:02 - Aug 10 with 818 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 13:28 - Aug 10 by Shaky |
I would say it is a fairly safe bet that you have not received any balance sheet updated by the club as of yesterday's close, so i am a little unsure how you arrive at that opinion. |
You’re completely correct. But its possible to take a slightly earlier one and roll it forward. |  | | |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:12 - Aug 10 with 787 views | Shaky |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:02 - Aug 10 by londonlisa2001 |
You’re completely correct. But its possible to take a slightly earlier one and roll it forward. |
. . .which is exactly what i have done, based on the assumptions stated. | |
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| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:23 - Aug 10 with 765 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:12 - Aug 10 by Shaky |
. . .which is exactly what i have done, based on the assumptions stated. |
Understand that. | | | |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:26 - Aug 10 with 749 views | Shaky |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:23 - Aug 10 by londonlisa2001 |
Understand that. |
I'd also be surprised if the finance team have completed their year end book closing exercise and certainly the auditors will not have weighed in with any audit adjustments at this stage.
Would it shock you if i told you I have greater confidence in my own analysis than what you have? | |
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| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:31 - Aug 10 with 732 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 17:26 - Aug 10 by Shaky |
I'd also be surprised if the finance team have completed their year end book closing exercise and certainly the auditors will not have weighed in with any audit adjustments at this stage.
Would it shock you if i told you I have greater confidence in my own analysis than what you have? |
It wouldn’t shock me that you have more confidence in yours, no.
I’d expect it. | | | |
| Swansea financial sweepstake on 13:03 - Apr 29 with 507 views | Shaky |
Well the results are in, ladies and germs:
Assets came in around £18 million lower than expected due substantially to a £15m 'impairment charge', which translates to duff players bought for too much money, as well as a slightly larger ordinary amortisation charge.
The financing side of that was accounted for by a slightly bigger net loss than anticipated (~£2m), with the balance due to lower than anticipated indebtedness.
Reasons for the better than expected cash-flow/lower debt appear to be better revenue, likely no investment in the squad whatsoever on contract renewals outside of the headline signings, and lower wage costs.
However, on the final point I am getting an unexplained difference of around £6m when reconciling cash-flow to balance sheet movements. I strongly suspect that is a sleight of hand involving the Sanches loan fee, that has probably been capitalised and then written off as part of the dufff player impairment charge. Hard to argue with that objectively! | |
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