| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) 09:43 - Sep 8 with 2053 views | omarjack |
Warning: These are rough estimates, might be way off as I might be missing some details. But I thought it might help a bit to understand things a bit more clearly.
For the 2017/2018 accounts:
-Turnover estimate:125 m
-Costs estimate: 135 m (110 m in wages/25 m other costs)
Net = - 10 m
Players bought and sold for this period: (until 31 July) (note: I might have made few errors regarding the time of the transactions, whether it'll be considered a part of the upcoming financial accounts or the next)
Bought:
Player------------Fee------------Amortisation
R.Sanches------------5 m---------------5 m
Bony-----------------12 m--------------6 m
Clucas---------------15 m--------------3.8 m
T.Abraham----------1.5 m-------------1.5 m
A.Ayew---------------20 m--------------5.7 m
Celina----------------3 m----------------0.7 m
Asoro-----------------2 m----------------0.7 m
Total player registrations: + 23.5 m (10% increase with agent fees etc) = + 26 m
Sold:
Player---------------Fee-------------Book value at the time of sale (est)-----------Profit on sale
Sigurosson---------40 m----------------------------2 m----------------------------------- + 38 m
Llorente-----------13.5 m-------------------------3 m---------------------------------- + 10.5 m
Kingsley------------3 m---------------------------0---------------------------------------+ 3 m
Mesa-----------------5.5 m------------------------8 m------------------------------------- - 2.5 m
Fabianski-------------7 m-------------------------0----------------------------------------- + 7 m
Bartley------------------4 m------------------------0------------------------------------------ + 4 m
Total profit on sale: + 60 m (- 10% for safety) = + 54 m
Sales vs Registrations = 54-26= + 28 m
And if we consider a 10 m loss without considering players trading, then the net profit should be..
+ 18 m pre-tax
2018/2019 accounts:
-Turnover estimate: 60 m (due to relegation obviously)
-Costs estimates: 90 m (65-70 m in wages/20-25 m other costs)
Net= - 30 m
Players trading for that period (so far)
Bought:
Player------------Fee------------Amortisation
McKay---------------0.5 m--------------0.2 m
John-----------------0.5 m---------------0.2 m
Total player registrations: + 0.5 m
Sold:
Player---------------Fee-------------Book value at the time of sale (est)-----------Profit on sale
Mawson------------15 m-------------------------2.5 m---------------------------------- + 13.5 m
Clucas---------------6 m--------------------------11 m------------------------------------- - 5 m
Fernandez------------6 m-------------------------2 m-------------------------------------- + 4 m
Amat---------------------1 m-----------------------1 m----------------------------------------- 0
Total: +12.5 m
Sales vs Registrations = 12.5 - 0.5 = - 12 m
And if we consider a 30 m loss without considering players trading, then the net profit should be..
- 18 m
So the profit vs loss for the next 2 years will be Zero. A coincidence?
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 09:58 - Sep 8 with 2032 views | oldcob |
Even though I had a 'pass' in bookkeeping when I was young, I am the first to admit I would have no idea of how to keep the accounts of a football club. Could you be second please? |  | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 12:16 - Sep 8 with 1958 views | leighton1318 |
I hate football club accounts. Forecasting anything to do with the players is a minefield, with agents fees, compo to sacked managers, deferred transfer payments, loyalty bonuses (indicated as contingent liabilities, incidentally) plus a general opacity on transfer terms all making it really difficult.
You can forecast the other elements of revenue, but the cost side is therefore more difficult.
The only thing worth doing, unless you have a lot of time to spare, is looking at the cash and debt and trying to make sense of the cash flow statement (rather than the P&L) and even that is blydi difficult.
The Trust director, if receiving monthly management accounts, should be better able to follow it but from the outside it’s a guessing game. | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 12:24 - Sep 8 with 1940 views | MattG |
Post deleted. [Post edited 8 Sep 2018 12:25]
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 13:02 - Sep 8 with 1903 views | awayjack |
There are so many debates on operating costs and player sales P&L there are just too many uncertainties to speculate accurately. The revenue for 2018/19 is much easier and the £60m is short by £15m or so.
Parachute payment - £54m (55% of £99m last season)
EFL payments - £7m
TV match fees - £1m - maybe more if we’re on a lot
Match day income - £8m - won’t change much
Commercial - £5m - 50% less than it should be!
Loan Fees - £7m from Ayews and Baston. (Offset costs)
So somewhere around £80m or £75m if you take wage costs for loanees out. |  | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 13:09 - Sep 8 with 1880 views | Whiterockin |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 12:16 - Sep 8 by leighton1318 |
I hate football club accounts. Forecasting anything to do with the players is a minefield, with agents fees, compo to sacked managers, deferred transfer payments, loyalty bonuses (indicated as contingent liabilities, incidentally) plus a general opacity on transfer terms all making it really difficult.
You can forecast the other elements of revenue, but the cost side is therefore more difficult.
The only thing worth doing, unless you have a lot of time to spare, is looking at the cash and debt and trying to make sense of the cash flow statement (rather than the P&L) and even that is blydi difficult.
The Trust director, if receiving monthly management accounts, should be better able to follow it but from the outside it’s a guessing game. |
This 100%.
And should be a remembered by anyone trying to predict the financial status of the club, without knowing all the facts in detail. |  | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 13:11 - Sep 8 with 1877 views | omarjack |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 13:02 - Sep 8 by awayjack |
There are so many debates on operating costs and player sales P&L there are just too many uncertainties to speculate accurately. The revenue for 2018/19 is much easier and the £60m is short by £15m or so.
Parachute payment - £54m (55% of £99m last season)
EFL payments - £7m
TV match fees - £1m - maybe more if we’re on a lot
Match day income - £8m - won’t change much
Commercial - £5m - 50% less than it should be!
Loan Fees - £7m from Ayews and Baston. (Offset costs)
So somewhere around £80m or £75m if you take wage costs for loanees out. |
Parachute payment - £43m (55% of £79m last season,which is the fixed PL income)
EFL payments + match fees - £7m (true enough)
Match day income - £6m - won’t change much (just for safety)
Commercial - £4m - (safety)
Loan Fees - 0 - We'd be lucky enough if we got them off our wage bill, let alone expecting £7m ffs.
TOTAL: £60m | |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 14:40 - Sep 8 with 1808 views | awayjack |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 13:11 - Sep 8 by omarjack |
Parachute payment - £43m (55% of £79m last season,which is the fixed PL income)
EFL payments + match fees - £7m (true enough)
Match day income - £6m - won’t change much (just for safety)
Commercial - £4m - (safety)
Loan Fees - 0 - We'd be lucky enough if we got them off our wage bill, let alone expecting £7m ffs.
TOTAL: £60m |
I think your wrong on PL payments - it’s of total PL income. It’s also what WB and Stoke have told their fans. Your also wrong on loan fees as we’d be absolutely hopeless if we weren’t charging something. Like I said the £7m include stheir eages so maybe next £3. Anyway I’m done wasting so much time on useless speculation. Let’s see what the 2018 accounts say. | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 16:30 - Sep 8 with 1738 views | Shaky |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 13:09 - Sep 8 by Whiterockin |
This 100%.
And should be a remembered by anyone trying to predict the financial status of the club, without knowing all the facts in detail. |
Technology always looks like magic to the uninitiated.
And not to labour the point, but some technology is knocked together in a shed, while other stuff is assembled using tried and tested processes in clean rooms and so on. |  |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 20:21 - Sep 8 with 1636 views | Shaky |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 12:16 - Sep 8 by leighton1318 |
I hate football club accounts. Forecasting anything to do with the players is a minefield, with agents fees, compo to sacked managers, deferred transfer payments, loyalty bonuses (indicated as contingent liabilities, incidentally) plus a general opacity on transfer terms all making it really difficult.
You can forecast the other elements of revenue, but the cost side is therefore more difficult.
The only thing worth doing, unless you have a lot of time to spare, is looking at the cash and debt and trying to make sense of the cash flow statement (rather than the P&L) and even that is blydi difficult.
The Trust director, if receiving monthly management accounts, should be better able to follow it but from the outside it’s a guessing game. |
So you have done a lot of forecasting football club financials by the sounds of things.
Dare one ask in what context? | |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 21:19 - Sep 8 with 1594 views | leighton1318 |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 20:21 - Sep 8 by Shaky |
So you have done a lot of forecasting football club financials by the sounds of things.
Dare one ask in what context? |
Not at all. I work in corpoate finance but have never had football club dealings. Thankfully,as you should be able to tell from the tone of my post. Valuation fundamentals go out of the window. I reckon I can analyse most businesses pretty quickly, in fact I know I can, especially with a visit, but from the outside, football lends itself to opacity. Respect to you if you think you have cracked it; I simply have not had the time.
I look at the Swans accounts from time to time (including the other night) and end up rolling my eyes. If I had infinite time ... but I don’t.
Looked at Norwich the other night in case we were ‘different’ but we aren’t. | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 22:11 - Sep 8 with 1549 views | Shaky |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 21:19 - Sep 8 by leighton1318 |
Not at all. I work in corpoate finance but have never had football club dealings. Thankfully,as you should be able to tell from the tone of my post. Valuation fundamentals go out of the window. I reckon I can analyse most businesses pretty quickly, in fact I know I can, especially with a visit, but from the outside, football lends itself to opacity. Respect to you if you think you have cracked it; I simply have not had the time.
I look at the Swans accounts from time to time (including the other night) and end up rolling my eyes. If I had infinite time ... but I don’t.
Looked at Norwich the other night in case we were ‘different’ but we aren’t. |
i am not sure i have cracked it yet.
2017 was the first year I took a stab, and some things were very close like revenue, profit on player sales, amortisation, long term assets.
Other things were some way off like wages and other costs which both exploded beyond my expectations. But then I built some market/TV revenue analytics and that started to make more sense.
One thing is for sure though; you'll never get anywhere without crunching the numbers. If you do you might start to get a feel for the rhythm of the business. As my old boss used to say, if you torture data enough it will talk. | |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 22:15 - Sep 8 with 1545 views | Catullus |
There is nothing realistic in it, it's all guess work. Our parachute payments (according to WoL) will be around 40.7, 33.3 and 14.8 million based on a 74 million income, there's another 23 millionin facility fees, central commercial income etc that aren't included in parachute payments apparently but even those figures are speculative and we haven't a clue about loan fees, how much of loan players wages we are still paying or what we owe on transfers.
To do a realistic analysis you need more information and the owners are keeping the financial cards close to their chests. [Post edited 8 Sep 2018 22:21]
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 22:22 - Sep 8 with 1529 views | _ |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 22:11 - Sep 8 by Shaky |
i am not sure i have cracked it yet.
2017 was the first year I took a stab, and some things were very close like revenue, profit on player sales, amortisation, long term assets.
Other things were some way off like wages and other costs which both exploded beyond my expectations. But then I built some market/TV revenue analytics and that started to make more sense.
One thing is for sure though; you'll never get anywhere without crunching the numbers. If you do you might start to get a feel for the rhythm of the business. As my old boss used to say, if you torture data enough it will talk. |
Let me put you straight then, because you seem in doubt....
You aint cracked jack shit - you're a crackpot.
"But then I built some market/TV revenue analytics and that started to make more sense. " - In other words, you crowbarred your schoolboy transfermarkt bullshit in to make it fit.
"One thing is for sure though; you'll never get anywhere without crunching the numbers" - NO!! You won't get anywhere without crunching the ACTUAL numbers, the ones that make up the accounts and not your jackanory (old British tv series telling us make believe stories) guff.
And torture? You've got that down to a tee.
Leighton, respect. |  |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 22:38 - Sep 8 with 1505 views | omarjack |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 22:15 - Sep 8 by Catullus |
There is nothing realistic in it, it's all guess work. Our parachute payments (according to WoL) will be around 40.7, 33.3 and 14.8 million based on a 74 million income, there's another 23 millionin facility fees, central commercial income etc that aren't included in parachute payments apparently but even those figures are speculative and we haven't a clue about loan fees, how much of loan players wages we are still paying or what we owe on transfers.
To do a realistic analysis you need more information and the owners are keeping the financial cards close to their chests. [Post edited 8 Sep 2018 22:21]
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PL's fixed income is 79 m, not 74 m.
In the 1st year, the club will get paid 55% of that (43 m) plus facility fees, central commercial and live broadcast which amounts to 6-8 m for all clubs. Totalling around 50 m.
As for your other points, you're absolutely right. It's all speculative, but I believe it's somehow within the realm of reality. And not entirely made up figures. I do not represent the figures as facts obviously. But they should be close enough. | |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 22:44 - Sep 8 with 1497 views | _ |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 22:38 - Sep 8 by omarjack |
PL's fixed income is 79 m, not 74 m.
In the 1st year, the club will get paid 55% of that (43 m) plus facility fees, central commercial and live broadcast which amounts to 6-8 m for all clubs. Totalling around 50 m.
As for your other points, you're absolutely right. It's all speculative, but I believe it's somehow within the realm of reality. And not entirely made up figures. I do not represent the figures as facts obviously. But they should be close enough. |
I bet your mentor, Shaky Spreadsheets, is cringing with every one of your posts. After all, he did teach you all you know 1 afternoon on here. (That's all it would take) | |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 15:40 - Sep 9 with 1374 views | Catullus |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 22:38 - Sep 8 by omarjack |
PL's fixed income is 79 m, not 74 m.
In the 1st year, the club will get paid 55% of that (43 m) plus facility fees, central commercial and live broadcast which amounts to 6-8 m for all clubs. Totalling around 50 m.
As for your other points, you're absolutely right. It's all speculative, but I believe it's somehow within the realm of reality. And not entirely made up figures. I do not represent the figures as facts obviously. But they should be close enough. |
Well according to WoL facility fees and central commercial aren't included in parachute payments but regardless, without knowing anything close to our real income and expenditure figures right now, nobody can make a realistic guess.
Did Bony have a relegation clause? Are Citeh paying part of his wages, if so how much? What are the new players wages and bonus structure? How much debt are we in, how much do we owe on previous acquisitions and in turn are owed?
There are far too many unknowns and variables to make a realistic appraisal but I accept there is a slight chance shaky is spot on, very slight! | |
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) on 17:22 - Sep 9 with 1330 views | QJumpingJack |
Are we still paying Monk/Guidolin/Bradley and Clement - payments can last for years. | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 18:05 - Sep 9 with 1291 views | Shaky |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 15:40 - Sep 9 by Catullus |
Well according to WoL facility fees and central commercial aren't included in parachute payments but regardless, without knowing anything close to our real income and expenditure figures right now, nobody can make a realistic guess.
Did Bony have a relegation clause? Are Citeh paying part of his wages, if so how much? What are the new players wages and bonus structure? How much debt are we in, how much do we owe on previous acquisitions and in turn are owed?
There are far too many unknowns and variables to make a realistic appraisal but I accept there is a slight chance shaky is spot on, very slight! |
Again: I think I have a fairly good idea of the 2018 full year financials. With the right analytical techniques it is possible to get a good handle on forecasting financials for businesses operating in a reasonably predictable environment.
For 2019 Swansea is not operating in a predictable environment. I can make reasonable forecasts for some bits of the financials but certainly not the whole thing. i have no way to anticipate the impact of all the changes to the organisation, and come up with something i can have any confidence in.
If and when the environment settles down perhaps in a few years I'll be no doubt feel much more confident again. [Post edited 9 Sep 2018 18:19]
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| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 19:46 - Sep 9 with 1240 views | Elmo |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 18:05 - Sep 9 by Shaky |
Again: I think I have a fairly good idea of the 2018 full year financials. With the right analytical techniques it is possible to get a good handle on forecasting financials for businesses operating in a reasonably predictable environment.
For 2019 Swansea is not operating in a predictable environment. I can make reasonable forecasts for some bits of the financials but certainly not the whole thing. i have no way to anticipate the impact of all the changes to the organisation, and come up with something i can have any confidence in.
If and when the environment settles down perhaps in a few years I'll be no doubt feel much more confident again. [Post edited 9 Sep 2018 18:19]
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The thing is, the Finance Affiliate to the Trust has access to monthly management accounts; has the role of forecasting, planning and budgeting - but the silence is worrying
Fabulous that so many are doing their best to analyse, synthesise and develop scenarios.
The big issue seems to be Trust and its Finance Affiliate failing to get on the front-foot to do the above in the real world, based on actuals - to allow proper challenge to the Board/Owners
Finance Affiliate says: " I havent seen the management accounts..... no forecast...... since June..." - wtf ?
It's September, where's the current forecast - the Finance Affiliate's forecast ? Poor | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 20:07 - Sep 9 with 1210 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 19:46 - Sep 9 by Elmo |
The thing is, the Finance Affiliate to the Trust has access to monthly management accounts; has the role of forecasting, planning and budgeting - but the silence is worrying
Fabulous that so many are doing their best to analyse, synthesise and develop scenarios.
The big issue seems to be Trust and its Finance Affiliate failing to get on the front-foot to do the above in the real world, based on actuals - to allow proper challenge to the Board/Owners
Finance Affiliate says: " I havent seen the management accounts..... no forecast...... since June..." - wtf ?
It's September, where's the current forecast - the Finance Affiliate's forecast ? Poor |
I actually said the last management accounts I have seen are for June, not that I saw them in June.
As you will know from the forum this week, the Trust have asked a whole series of very detailed questions about finances that have not been answered by the club.
What would you like me to do to ‘get on the front foot’? Make up spurious crap to pacify you like everyone else is, or wait until we have followed the necessary process to get the actual information?
I can make up figures as well if you want. Doesn’t seem like a good use of my holiday to me though to be frank.
Btw - I don’t even remotely have the role within the club or Trust of forecasting, planning and budgeting. Not even part of it. If I did though, I’d do a far better job of it than the nonsense posted on here.
Have a great evening reading all those scenarios. Or watch CBeebies. Much the same thing. | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 20:43 - Sep 9 with 1178 views | Elmo |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 20:07 - Sep 9 by londonlisa2001 |
I actually said the last management accounts I have seen are for June, not that I saw them in June.
As you will know from the forum this week, the Trust have asked a whole series of very detailed questions about finances that have not been answered by the club.
What would you like me to do to ‘get on the front foot’? Make up spurious crap to pacify you like everyone else is, or wait until we have followed the necessary process to get the actual information?
I can make up figures as well if you want. Doesn’t seem like a good use of my holiday to me though to be frank.
Btw - I don’t even remotely have the role within the club or Trust of forecasting, planning and budgeting. Not even part of it. If I did though, I’d do a far better job of it than the nonsense posted on here.
Have a great evening reading all those scenarios. Or watch CBeebies. Much the same thing. |
Thanks for your response.
My interpretation of Finance Affiliate to the Supporter's Director is to provide ongoing support and challenge - i.e, effectively a Finance Business Partner to the Board member.
As such of course you should be analysing actuals and preparing challenging forecasts.
It's a role which is sorely lacking, unfortunately.
Maybe instead of descending into puerile CBeebies comments you could live up to your own hype and offer some insight and challenge, as outlined above | | | |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 21:44 - Sep 9 with 1125 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Realistic analysis for the next 2 financial accounts. (if nothing changes) (n/t) on 20:43 - Sep 9 by Elmo |
Thanks for your response.
My interpretation of Finance Affiliate to the Supporter's Director is to provide ongoing support and challenge - i.e, effectively a Finance Business Partner to the Board member.
As such of course you should be analysing actuals and preparing challenging forecasts.
It's a role which is sorely lacking, unfortunately.
Maybe instead of descending into puerile CBeebies comments you could live up to your own hype and offer some insight and challenge, as outlined above |
You have no idea whether it is sorely lacking though do you? Why don’t you ask other Trust board members if you think my input is sorely lacking in some way. They are able to comment.
You aren’t. You have no idea what I do or don’t do. You just know I don’t post forecasts on here.
Largely because the info I see is completely confidential and can’t be shared.
If I shared it, I wouldn’t see it any longer. So I couldn’t support anyone.
I personally think it’s best that I can see stuff and properly comment rather than satisfy some anonymous poster. | | | |
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