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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK 16:15 - Sep 30 with 3041 viewstrampie

A no deal Brexit could lead to the breakup of the UK, Ireland might unite and Scotland might well leave the union, support for Wales to leave will grow if either Scotland or N.Ireland go, if both go the possibility of Wales becoming independent will greatly increase.

Unionists wanting to leave the EU is potentially going to destroy the union state of the UK, one has to laugh at the unionists .

Wales wont stand for perpetual right wing Governments that Westminster will provide, Wales wont stand for the increased poverty and austerity of the let the rich get richer and the poor get poorer policies from England.

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 18:32 - Oct 1 with 841 viewstrampie

Plaid won the second largest amount of seats last time out in the Assembly elections, General Elections are a different kettle of fish for Plaid as they are UK wide affairs but they still managed to win 4 constituencies and Plaid won the second most seats out of the parties in last years Welsh council elections.

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 00:53 - Oct 2 with 796 viewsNookiejack

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 12:27 - Oct 1 by BytholWyn

You make some valid points - but everything you say applies to the way the UK government (only more so) dealt with the financial crisis in 2008 - brought about by irresponsible lending and light-touch regulation. Do you seriously think that a post-Brexit hard right Tory government is going to be more responsible in its approach to fiscal regulation that it currently is? Especially, as is very likely, we enter into a free trade deal with a Trumpist USA - who will have us over a barrel and will demand removal of our remaining threadbare safeguards.

There should be bankers in the UK still languishing in jail for the events that led to the 2008 crash - and all those bankers who were paid multi-million pound bonuses on the back of feckless lending should have had their ill-gotten gains clawed back. What did we get instead? 10 years of austerity, and counting, with the poorest and most vulnerable in society picking up the tab. Not only that, but the regulations brought in post-2008 were piss-poor, with a bit of extra capitalization and little else. The emergence of companies like Wonga post-2008, with their obscene lending rates, says all you need to know about how serious the Tory hard right fanatics are about financial regulation.

Gordon Brown recently warned of the on-going vulnerability of the world banking system https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/12/we-are-in-danger-of-sleepwalkin Putting aside the special pleading about his government's role in creating this state of affairs, he makes some very valid points. We haven't (globally as well as in the UK) recognised the seriousness of the risk of things going tits up again. If we were serious about the underlying issues then the Glass-Steagall Act - the bedrock of prosperity in the States and further afield, from the Great Depression until its repeal in 1991 - would have been re-instated for a start. Brown talks about problems in emerging markets in the Far East as being the catalyst for another financial crisis. It could just as easily be a no-deal Brexit that provides the catalyst, especially given London's major role in global markets.


Without full political, economic and fiscal integration the Eurozone will probably break up. That’s why Macron and Verhofstadt are calling for more integration.

I think that this could lead to another financial crisis - with the amount of money owed by Italy, Spain and Portugal to Germany, if Eurozone breaks up.

We are already enmeshed and it appears difficult to leave - do we want to become even more enmeshed - as EU moves towards full political integration.

What happens if far right take control of EU in a financial crisis scenario? Seems unlikely but how many people thought Trump would ever gain power?

I do agree with you that Brexit could cauae another financial crisis - if EU Eurocrats try to punish us for leaving and we then leave on basis of No Deal - as that could be the tipping point downwards for both EU and U.K. economies.

Bigger risk for me is break up of the Eurozone.

An EU super state might have advantages - not for me under the current model though - where the power is with the unelected EU commission - with Germany having the greatest influence - given it bankrolls the EU. The EU Parliament having little power.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 06:42 - Oct 2 with 774 viewspeenemunde

I don’t think Wales should follow Ireland at anything.
Ireland acts like a Whore to the wishes of the eu 🤮
The Welsh will stand with our English brother & sisters, regardless what a few idiots on here may say.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 09:32 - Oct 2 with 735 viewsjohnlangy

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 18:11 - Oct 1 by Dr_Winston

Plaid Cymru lost their deposits in almost half of the seats in Wales at the last election. They were right down there with the Monster Raving Loonies, which is apt really.

The idea that there's a longing to throw off the chains and declare Welsh independence anywhere apart from within a small, but noisy, minority of whackos is an amusing one.


'a small, but noisy, minority of whackos'.

27% ? With 26% undecided which, if you split it with half going each way would mean 40%. A small, noisy minority ?
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 09:33 - Oct 2 with 733 viewsjohnlangy

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 06:42 - Oct 2 by peenemunde

I don’t think Wales should follow Ireland at anything.
Ireland acts like a Whore to the wishes of the eu 🤮
The Welsh will stand with our English brother & sisters, regardless what a few idiots on here may say.


'The Welsh will stand with our English brother & sisters, regardless what a few idiots on here may say.'

See my last post.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 09:46 - Oct 2 with 723 viewsHighjack

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 18:32 - Oct 1 by trampie

Plaid won the second largest amount of seats last time out in the Assembly elections, General Elections are a different kettle of fish for Plaid as they are UK wide affairs but they still managed to win 4 constituencies and Plaid won the second most seats out of the parties in last years Welsh council elections.



The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:07 - Oct 2 with 712 viewsCatullus

Another financial crisis is coming regardless of Brexit. Global GDP is higher than 2008, lending, personal debt.....government debt.....all of it is higher and apparently lessons haven't been learned or just fragrantly ignored.
Of course in the last crash the poor stumped up and rich people just got richer, maybe another crash is what the rich families want? Corporations (owned and/or controlled by rich families) have become so powerful governments do as they wish, largely because of lobbysists and people in positions of power being bought.
Quantitative easing was a major con, they gave billions to the banks which was gobbled up by shareholders. It would have been much better to say we'll give these billions equally to every tax payer earning below 100k per year (stagger the payments so the poorest get more than those on 100k) but with the proviso you pay debts off. The money would have ended up with banks but having reduced personal debt. There again, maybe any financial experst or economists on here could tell me why that wouldn't work?

The problem with dividing up the 26% undecideds is that we just don't know, it's possible that the vast majority would fall with staying in the union OR with independence. Trying to second guess it is fairly pointless, the only way to know is to have the vote.

Your opinion that unionists voting leave could break up the union is preposterous. Lets look at the numbers....wait, there aren't any. We don't know how many who voted leave or remain are pro independence or pro leave. It's quite possible that pro independence voters are leavers too, or that pro EU voters are also pro union.

It's the way of the world these days that the losing side just shouts louder and louder hoping that making the most noise will win the day. Yet the most noise in the last general election came from Corbyn.....May could barely raise a whimper above "strong and stable" and still the Tories won.
It's not like any Labour government has done anything to reduce the wealth gap and despite his "all things to all people" and "keeping all options open" policy (which basically means Corbyn won't commit to anything in case the electorate don't like it) Labour still couldn't beat the most rubbish Tory party since Boris's party to celebrate becoming PM.

As I've said before, your desire for independence is based as much on hatred of the English (are you Kilkenny in disguise) as anything else, you'd choose independence even if we knew for a cast iron fact Wales would be worse off. Unfortunately, just like Brexit, we can't be certain what independence would bring unless we did it.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:40 - Oct 2 with 700 viewsNookiejack

Nothing to do with Brexit - Italy and EU clash over budget as Juncker warns it could be new Greek crisis

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/02/markets-wobble-italy-eu-clash-bu
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:51 - Oct 2 with 695 viewsCatullus

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:40 - Oct 2 by Nookiejack

Nothing to do with Brexit - Italy and EU clash over budget as Juncker warns it could be new Greek crisis

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/02/markets-wobble-italy-eu-clash-bu


Will Italy put up with what the Greeks went through? Will they ask for a referendum too? The Italian government is already eurosceptic and said it will work with Hungary to change the EU. If the EU refuses to change, what will happen?
This is why it's a good choice to leave (ignoring any other reason) because there is a growing eurosceptic movement across Europe, if the EU crashes we are better off out of it. We have seen how intransigent the EU can be but maybe, if it's entire existence is threatened it will change?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/05/italys-new-eurosceptic-government-vo

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 11:17 - Oct 2 with 680 viewstrampie

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:07 - Oct 2 by Catullus

Another financial crisis is coming regardless of Brexit. Global GDP is higher than 2008, lending, personal debt.....government debt.....all of it is higher and apparently lessons haven't been learned or just fragrantly ignored.
Of course in the last crash the poor stumped up and rich people just got richer, maybe another crash is what the rich families want? Corporations (owned and/or controlled by rich families) have become so powerful governments do as they wish, largely because of lobbysists and people in positions of power being bought.
Quantitative easing was a major con, they gave billions to the banks which was gobbled up by shareholders. It would have been much better to say we'll give these billions equally to every tax payer earning below 100k per year (stagger the payments so the poorest get more than those on 100k) but with the proviso you pay debts off. The money would have ended up with banks but having reduced personal debt. There again, maybe any financial experst or economists on here could tell me why that wouldn't work?

The problem with dividing up the 26% undecideds is that we just don't know, it's possible that the vast majority would fall with staying in the union OR with independence. Trying to second guess it is fairly pointless, the only way to know is to have the vote.

Your opinion that unionists voting leave could break up the union is preposterous. Lets look at the numbers....wait, there aren't any. We don't know how many who voted leave or remain are pro independence or pro leave. It's quite possible that pro independence voters are leavers too, or that pro EU voters are also pro union.

It's the way of the world these days that the losing side just shouts louder and louder hoping that making the most noise will win the day. Yet the most noise in the last general election came from Corbyn.....May could barely raise a whimper above "strong and stable" and still the Tories won.
It's not like any Labour government has done anything to reduce the wealth gap and despite his "all things to all people" and "keeping all options open" policy (which basically means Corbyn won't commit to anything in case the electorate don't like it) Labour still couldn't beat the most rubbish Tory party since Boris's party to celebrate becoming PM.

As I've said before, your desire for independence is based as much on hatred of the English (are you Kilkenny in disguise) as anything else, you'd choose independence even if we knew for a cast iron fact Wales would be worse off. Unfortunately, just like Brexit, we can't be certain what independence would bring unless we did it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36486016

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 15:45 - Oct 2 with 655 viewsCatullus

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 11:17 - Oct 2 by trampie

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36486016


Yeah, we can file this under "project fear" staright away. Lets face it, the SNP want to leave anyway and will say anything to get Scots to vote leave. Blair.....I wouldn't believe him if he said water was wet. Major....another arch remainer who will say literally anything to stop brexit, even if he knows it's lies.
Lets face it, it's an impasse, remainers won't believe leavers and vice versa if it's true or not. That's where we are at.
So many lies have been spouted by both sides no one is listening anymore.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 16:22 - Oct 2 with 648 viewstrampie

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 15:45 - Oct 2 by Catullus

Yeah, we can file this under "project fear" staright away. Lets face it, the SNP want to leave anyway and will say anything to get Scots to vote leave. Blair.....I wouldn't believe him if he said water was wet. Major....another arch remainer who will say literally anything to stop brexit, even if he knows it's lies.
Lets face it, it's an impasse, remainers won't believe leavers and vice versa if it's true or not. That's where we are at.
So many lies have been spouted by both sides no one is listening anymore.


That article about ex Prime Ministers Blair and Major's thoughts was from 2016 before the EU Brexit referendum vote, also it notes ex US President Bill Clinton saying the same thing.

You seem to be saying the UK breaking up as a result of Brexit is preposterous, yet Prime Ministers and Presidents think its a possibility and they said that before the vote, now lots of people realise that it could be a possibility as a result of the vote the only thing preposterous is that people don't think its a possibility in years to come as a direct result of Brexit.

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 16:37 - Oct 2 with 636 viewsCatullus

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 16:22 - Oct 2 by trampie

That article about ex Prime Ministers Blair and Major's thoughts was from 2016 before the EU Brexit referendum vote, also it notes ex US President Bill Clinton saying the same thing.

You seem to be saying the UK breaking up as a result of Brexit is preposterous, yet Prime Ministers and Presidents think its a possibility and they said that before the vote, now lots of people realise that it could be a possibility as a result of the vote the only thing preposterous is that people don't think its a possibility in years to come as a direct result of Brexit.


I'm not saying anything besides no one is listening to project fear anymore.

The Uk might break up, the Scottish have come close to leaving already. Scotland apart, I doubt it will happen in fhe near future, even with Brexit. Northern Ireland is hard to judge.
Once the UK leaves, if Wales did split from the UK we'd have to apply to the EU for membership with no guarantee of acceptance (we're British see) and we'd have to accept the Euro as our currency and all the other things Welsh people just voted to get rid of.
Think of it this way, if the majority of people wanted to leave the EU, why would we accept independence and rejoining an institution we rejected?
If just for a minute I accept that leaving the EU is madness for the UK, then Wales leaving the Union would be an even bigger madness.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 16:47 - Oct 2 with 632 viewstrampie

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 16:37 - Oct 2 by Catullus

I'm not saying anything besides no one is listening to project fear anymore.

The Uk might break up, the Scottish have come close to leaving already. Scotland apart, I doubt it will happen in fhe near future, even with Brexit. Northern Ireland is hard to judge.
Once the UK leaves, if Wales did split from the UK we'd have to apply to the EU for membership with no guarantee of acceptance (we're British see) and we'd have to accept the Euro as our currency and all the other things Welsh people just voted to get rid of.
Think of it this way, if the majority of people wanted to leave the EU, why would we accept independence and rejoining an institution we rejected?
If just for a minute I accept that leaving the EU is madness for the UK, then Wales leaving the Union would be an even bigger madness.


https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/poverty-wales-2018
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-36989486/wales-life-expectancy-inequality

That is why we should leave the UK, Westminster with their vast majority of English mp's do Porthcawl for us.

As regards the EU not taking us that's project fear, that is the imperialist nations like Spain, English led UK, Germany, Italy, France etc afraid of the Bretons, Basques and Catalans etc - once people overcome project fear they will take those new countries at a drop of a hat.

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 21:07 - Oct 2 with 609 viewsCatullus

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 16:47 - Oct 2 by trampie

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/poverty-wales-2018
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-36989486/wales-life-expectancy-inequality

That is why we should leave the UK, Westminster with their vast majority of English mp's do Porthcawl for us.

As regards the EU not taking us that's project fear, that is the imperialist nations like Spain, English led UK, Germany, Italy, France etc afraid of the Bretons, Basques and Catalans etc - once people overcome project fear they will take those new countries at a drop of a hat.


Copied and pasted...

Negotiations encompass 35 policy areas, known as chapters, covering all current EU legislation. Not all chapters are opened at the same time and the speed of negotiations depends on how quickly the candidate country can adopt EU legislation and fulfill the benchmark conditions set out by the EU. No negotiations on a chapter can be closed until every EU government is satisfied. The negotiation process is only concluded once every chapter has been closed.

Once negotiations are complete, the candidate country signs an an Accession treaty, setting out when it will formally join the EU. This treaty has to be approved by all governments, the European Commission and the European Parliament. Each EU member state also has to ratify the treaty.

Once we were independent we could take a long while to meet the criteria to join. That's if no other country or the commission vetoed us. The 35 chapters have to be met and fulfilled in turn. Would we meet the requirements and would the people (you know those who voted leave) accept the conditions?
Negotiations to join can't even start until all member states agree unanimously that you can become a candidate, then they set up a framework for talks......that could take years, and that's not a scare story, it literally could!!
Of course we'd be a stable democracy because the lefties tell us they'd have the full support of all the people to set up this utopian dreamworld free of the right wing English government. For myself, I see a long drawn out Indyref campaign that's bitterly fought and the indyrebel group gets trounced, but that's me.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 23:45 - Oct 2 with 580 viewsKilkennyjack

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 06:42 - Oct 2 by peenemunde

I don’t think Wales should follow Ireland at anything.
Ireland acts like a Whore to the wishes of the eu 🤮
The Welsh will stand with our English brother & sisters, regardless what a few idiots on here may say.


Hang on - its fecking George Thomas ....

Get off your knees mun.
The pits are closed and the chapels are empty.
No need to live on your knees any more.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Forward to our independent free Cymru ...

‘Beware of the risen people’ ........🍀🇮🇪 💚 YesCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 09:04 - Oct 3 with 532 viewsLoyal

Supposition.

Nolan sympathiser, clout expert, personal friend of Leigh Dineen, advocate and enforcer of porridge swallows. The official inventor of the tit w@nk.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:02 - Oct 3 with 518 viewscostalotta

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 10:11 - Oct 1 by Catullus

Because there is no massive support for independence. The latest poll showed 27% and 47% against, 26% undecided. Even if all the undecideds came down in favour of independence it wouldn't ne a massive majority, split them equally and it becomes 60:40 for remaining in the union, but we all know how badly wrong polls can be.
The only poll you can truly trust is a full national poll so maybe the WAG needs to ask the question and then we'll know. Taking a survey of 1000 people then "weighting" it is hardly proof of anything.


This!

No to Welsh Independence.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 11:29 - Oct 3 with 502 viewstrampie

If N.I and Scotland break away and are perceived to be doing better than Wales then will be the time to have a referendum.

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 21:00 - Oct 3 with 464 viewsCatullus

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 11:29 - Oct 3 by trampie

If N.I and Scotland break away and are perceived to be doing better than Wales then will be the time to have a referendum.


If NI breaks away it will be to unify with Eire and it'll be hard to judge, Scotland, well their chances of another indyref anytime soon are limited.
The polls will have to show a large majority in favour for Wales to have an indyref. No PM wants to be called the person responsible for the union collapsing.
The EU will collapse before Wales asks for Independence, in my opinion. I could be wrong.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 22:02 - Oct 3 with 450 viewsKilkennyjack

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 21:00 - Oct 3 by Catullus

If NI breaks away it will be to unify with Eire and it'll be hard to judge, Scotland, well their chances of another indyref anytime soon are limited.
The polls will have to show a large majority in favour for Wales to have an indyref. No PM wants to be called the person responsible for the union collapsing.
The EU will collapse before Wales asks for Independence, in my opinion. I could be wrong.


Why ?

If the Scottish Govt want a vote then they should just call it. Simples.

Welsh Govt should simply declare UDI.
The welsh people never voted for this union in the first place.

As lovely Leanne once said ‘wales needs to be a little less well behaved’ ...

‘Beware of the risen people’ ........🍀🇮🇪 💚 YesCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 23:04 - Oct 3 with 439 viewspeenemunde

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 22:02 - Oct 3 by Kilkennyjack

Why ?

If the Scottish Govt want a vote then they should just call it. Simples.

Welsh Govt should simply declare UDI.
The welsh people never voted for this union in the first place.

As lovely Leanne once said ‘wales needs to be a little less well behaved’ ...


Welsh people never voted to join the eu, but have voted to leave the eu.
Let the jocks have another vote, they won’t vote for independence.

When are you going to leave and move into the eu, not long left now......independence 😁🇬🇧
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 23:09 - Oct 3 with 437 viewsbuilthjack

52% of Welsh farmers voted for out.
If there was a vote tomorrow it would be around 5%.
FACT

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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 06:17 - Oct 4 with 415 viewspeenemunde

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 23:09 - Oct 3 by builthjack

52% of Welsh farmers voted for out.
If there was a vote tomorrow it would be around 5%.
FACT


Not a fact.
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Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 09:34 - Oct 4 with 389 viewsNookiejack

Brexit could cause the breakup of the UK on 11:29 - Oct 3 by trampie

If N.I and Scotland break away and are perceived to be doing better than Wales then will be the time to have a referendum.


Macron and Verhofstadt want a United States of Europe with full political, economic and fiscal integration.

This means harmonisation of taxes and so Republic of Ireland loses its competitive advantage in haveing one of the lowest corporation tax rates on the world. That is why it has been able to attract the US tech giants etc so that they can park their profits in a low tax rate jurisdiction.

The EU has already started this process in respect of taking Republic of Ireland to court re $15bn of Apple back taxes.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-takes


Irelans then will have lost its tax advantage when EU harmonises taxes - but will still be locked into one exchange rate and the same interest rate that thw ECB decides for the whole of Eurozone.

I think the Republic of Ireland may well struggle, similar to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
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