| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets 09:18 - Oct 11 with 6825 views | Shaky |
Next intermediate low projected just before the end of the month, with small caps leading down, and likely to bounce first. |  |
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 11:48 - Oct 12 with 2012 views | bonymine |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 11:01 - Oct 12 by swanforthemoney |
Generally avoid emotion when dealing with this. However attractive it may be to try and pass it on to kids rather than your Ex, the main reason to build up a pension is to look after yourself in old age. Be cold eyed and calculating and look after yourself. If you have spare income from your pension you can give it the kids whe by the time comes.
I have a DB pension coming up soon but with the new freedoms I could instead take what looks like a big transfer value. I think I’m minded to go for certainty on the basis that I don’t want the admin and worry of being sure my advisor invests my pension pot to produce a decent income into my old age. SImple as that. It’s only an opinion mind, plenty take the view they want the money sooner rather than later and happy to shoulder the risk. |
Appreciate your reply and agree with your comments the crux of this decision appears to come down to certainty v flexibility/risk.
The boys will be pretty comfortable after me anyway so you’re quite right in what you say with regard to looking after myself in old age.
Cheers for the insight. |  |
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 12:52 - Oct 12 with 1989 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 10:52 - Oct 12 by Shaky |
As my old mate Ralph Bloch used to say, you can't trade yield.
US bond prices turned lower ages ago:
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By the way the dashed black line is the uptrend line for the advance off the early 80s secular US bond market low.
As i mentioned earlier, in my view it is no coincidence that panic gripped the equity market when it did, coincident with the long term bull market in interest rates breaking down. | |
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 21:30 - Oct 12 with 1932 views | Elmo |
DJI possibly found further support today ~25k - a Higher Low doji after yesterday's Ultra High Volumed doji at the longer term Up T-line.
Such Ultra High Volume was last seen in the Higher Low Feb 2016 - the start of the bull run from ~15k.
Edit: ever the optimist....twt [Post edited 12 Oct 2018 21:31]
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 14:01 - Oct 25 with 1848 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 21:30 - Oct 12 by Elmo |
DJI possibly found further support today ~25k - a Higher Low doji after yesterday's Ultra High Volumed doji at the longer term Up T-line.
Such Ultra High Volume was last seen in the Higher Low Feb 2016 - the start of the bull run from ~15k.
Edit: ever the optimist....twt [Post edited 12 Oct 2018 21:31]
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One of the axioms of market action is there is no such thing as support in a bear market.
Still another drop of the current magnitude to go before we reach that stagfe on a confirmed basis, but as I said I think we are approaching an intermediate low.
And to be clear that means a low in time, not necessarily in price; they are trying to circle the wagons in the pre-market, but if you can find a chart of the S&P futures we simply appear to be in a flag pattern. Look out below! | |
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 22:38 - Oct 26 with 1758 views | Elmo |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 14:01 - Oct 25 by Shaky |
One of the axioms of market action is there is no such thing as support in a bear market.
Still another drop of the current magnitude to go before we reach that stagfe on a confirmed basis, but as I said I think we are approaching an intermediate low.
And to be clear that means a low in time, not necessarily in price; they are trying to circle the wagons in the pre-market, but if you can find a chart of the S&P futures we simply appear to be in a flag pattern. Look out below! |
Can you post a chart of the flag Shaky ? On our charts it has today found support at the Outer Decision Fib (76.4, precisely)
Meanwhile DJI found further support at 24460 - as expected - its been on a mission of filling high volumed pockets from mid-July, since the bounce up off the 25k support.
The last one was filled today from the 6 Jul - in a high volumed doji at the close.
Twt whether this technical behaviour will prevail.......... | | | |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 13:12 - Oct 31 with 1676 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 18:45 - Oct 11 by Shaky |
. . .Here's a chart of the Euro/GBP (Pound) exchange rate:
The area at the end with the 2 converging blue lines is what is known as a triangle. Normally this is what is known as a continuation pattern, which means a pause in the underlying trend which is up for the Euro.
Regardless once prices break decisively out of the triangle a fast price move should ensue.
BTW the other investment opportunity you could consider for a flutter is gold stocks, but they look like they have a little further to run down first.
Gold stocks often do very well in falling markets and I made a lot of money speculating in South African and US gold miners in the first half of the naughties. |
Update:
Euro bounced at the lower boundary of the triangle now heading for a test of the top IMO with a better than an evens chance of a break out on this leg.
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 17:24 - Oct 31 with 1645 views | Elmo |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 13:12 - Oct 31 by Shaky |
Update:
Euro bounced at the lower boundary of the triangle now heading for a test of the top IMO with a better than an evens chance of a break out on this leg.
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Thanks - however I was referring to the flag on S&P you mentioned......?
Meanwhile, DJI not giving in easily with a Higher Low at that 24460 volume gap closure - now trucking up through 25k for unfinished business above......... | | | |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 17:50 - Oct 31 with 1641 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 17:24 - Oct 31 by Elmo |
Thanks - however I was referring to the flag on S&P you mentioned......?
Meanwhile, DJI not giving in easily with a Higher Low at that 24460 volume gap closure - now trucking up through 25k for unfinished business above......... |
Sorry, only just saw your prior message.
Here is the flag on the ES mini contract just now broken to the upside, that might nevertheless be a whipsaw move.
Internals have been in gear to the downside, with the AD line, 52-wk lows and volume all expanding on the downside on the recent swing low.
Still looking for a low in the 12-13 wk cycle, but the concern is that arrived mid-month and that the it has subsequently been in a sideways up phase denoting significant underlying weakness and the possibility of a crash in the next few weeks. | |
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 20:12 - Oct 31 with 1616 views | Shaky |
Broken support = resistance.
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 20:39 - Oct 31 with 1606 views | Elmo |
Y, the 38.2 Decision Zone now in play. (maybe include the 76.4 for good practice? as outer decision point / deeper retrace)
(at your H1 time-frame not seeing the flag btw - more a down channel (unless you mean bull flag, which ofc is counter the bear market stance)) | | | |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 09:52 - Nov 2 with 1551 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 20:39 - Oct 31 by Elmo |
Y, the 38.2 Decision Zone now in play. (maybe include the 76.4 for good practice? as outer decision point / deeper retrace)
(at your H1 time-frame not seeing the flag btw - more a down channel (unless you mean bull flag, which ofc is counter the bear market stance)) |
The whole pattern is corrective off the mid October lows, with plenty of overlapping and no directional moves.
They have ramped the futures this morning over resistance but I'll be shorting at open with tight stops. | |
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 16:30 - Dec 10 with 1377 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 13:12 - Oct 31 by Shaky |
Update:
Euro bounced at the lower boundary of the triangle now heading for a test of the top IMO with a better than an evens chance of a break out on this leg.
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Whee!!
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| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 15:38 - Dec 24 with 1238 views | Shaky |
| Attn Elmo: US Equity Markets on 10:46 - Oct 12 by Shaky |
Yup, charts certainly did suggest that a correction was coming, although depending on what sub discipline of technical analysis you follow they were probably saying different things. Which is one reason so many supposedly serious investors scoff at technical analysis.
But I scoff at them!
To give you a little background I am an expert in the fundamental valuation of companies. Jellybean Benitez tells a story that he went around for many years in the 70s firmly believing he was comfortably the best DJ in world. Until one day he walked into a club where underground legend Walter Gibbons was doing amazing things spinning 3 decks and cutting tracks up on the fly, whereafter Jellybean had to face the fact that this guy was better than him.
However, I have yet to come across the fundamental company valuation equivalent of Walter Gibbons!
So I was working in a firm in the City in the 1990s in corporate finance and they also had an investment management side, and due to my valuation expertise I was asked to join the investment committees for a couple of the investment funds.
For various reasons I started developing relationship with some of the sell side brokers that the funds traded through, and one of them was a predominantly regional broker called Raymond James, which happened to have a technical analyst/market strategist called Ralph Bloch
Ralph was a genuine legend who predicted the 1987 crash, and was an all round brilliant guy to spend a liquid lunch with, not only in terms of the war stories he could tell but also his stunning insights into market action.
He gave me a copy of the bible he used called 'Technical analysis of Stock Trends', but I subsequently researched all manner of different approaches to technical analysis.
One of the best approaches is cycle analysis.
Here is a chart of the Russell 2000 small cap index which as I mentioned above is leading the market down.
The cyan line are equally spaced 60 trading days apart, representing one of the dominant cycles in the US market that averages out at around 13 calender weeks measured from low to low. With the next low due around the turn of the month as I mentioned above.
However, according to the JM Hurst concept of cycle analysis cycles nest within longer cycles, and the lime green lines show the lows at one higher degree of the cycle that is dominant currently measuring around 9 months.
Longer cycles operate too, and the configuration currently suggests we are heading into a bear market. Separately the fundamental backdrop suggests it could be nasty and protracted.
In terms of your E&P stocks I am bearish on oil and am currently looking for a turn down and short entry.
I follow mainly US equity markets so am unable to comment specifically on UK stocks but certainly the wider sector has been underperforming significantly since the middle of '08, and I do think that could be about to turn.
However, that would be more interesting for institutional investors who are in the business of outperforming their peers. It's not much good for private investors to be merely losing less than the market.
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Update: With US equity markets in free fall currently, the next green line cycle low is due from late January into mid February.
Merry Christmas! | |
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