| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins 12:26 - Nov 28 with 7434 views | westwalesed |
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162
Impending financial doom whatever Brexit outcome we have.
What they fail to understand is that many Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that.
But the deal will be rightly rejected, we will have a new Referendum, the Leave vote will be deliberately split with three options (Deal, No Deal, Remain) and we will end up Remaining.
Then all the thicko-inbreds from ghastly places like the North East and the Welsh Valleys can jolly well get back in their boxes.
Ruthlessly crushed. |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:39 - Nov 28 with 1173 views | Highjack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:16 - Nov 28 by Batterseajack |
Sounds like you know more about this than the government. Begs the question why anyone bothers carrying out financial forecasts. |
They bother because they get paid vast amounts of money to bother. Predicting the future has always been a lucrative game but no human has ever achieved it apart from Mystic Meg of course. |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:04 - Nov 28 with 1160 views | Shaky |
Leading academic economist and Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member casts doubt on Bank of England hard Brexit forecast:
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:06 - Nov 28 with 1160 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:35 - Nov 28 by Shaky |
Either you have misunderstood the difference between the economics department of the Bank of England and politicians, or you are making a straw man argument.
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My educational qualifications are economics-based mate, so not sure what your point is. Ill go on record as saying "art, not science" too.
Why have you pointed out the "worst case" scenario summary output? That wasnt what i was challenging. I was challenging the assumptions and variables in their modelling.
Additionally, we have seen these "worst case" scenarios over and over again since (and before 2016) and they have almost all proven to be bunkum at worst, over-exaggerated at best.
Look forward to your thoughts. Im suprised youre not as cynical as i am with this stuff, working for years in the financial industry makes you question every little thing! (not having a dig there either, just suprised youre accepting their analysis as gospel) |  |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:18 - Nov 28 with 1134 views | Shaky |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:06 - Nov 28 by PozuelosSideys |
My educational qualifications are economics-based mate, so not sure what your point is. Ill go on record as saying "art, not science" too.
Why have you pointed out the "worst case" scenario summary output? That wasnt what i was challenging. I was challenging the assumptions and variables in their modelling.
Additionally, we have seen these "worst case" scenarios over and over again since (and before 2016) and they have almost all proven to be bunkum at worst, over-exaggerated at best.
Look forward to your thoughts. Im suprised youre not as cynical as i am with this stuff, working for years in the financial industry makes you question every little thing! (not having a dig there either, just suprised youre accepting their analysis as gospel) |
i am not accepting anything as gospel, because we are dealing with predictions about the future.
But I recognise that the most important factor for a central bank bar none is their credibility. Without that they are nothing, and that is an incredibly dangerous situation for the custodians of the currency to be in.
And for that reason there is no way they are playing politics with this stuff. No way. They have without doubt done their homework. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:37 - Nov 28 with 1120 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:18 - Nov 28 by Shaky |
i am not accepting anything as gospel, because we are dealing with predictions about the future.
But I recognise that the most important factor for a central bank bar none is their credibility. Without that they are nothing, and that is an incredibly dangerous situation for the custodians of the currency to be in.
And for that reason there is no way they are playing politics with this stuff. No way. They have without doubt done their homework. |
I wouldnt disagree with anything youve said there. But we are dealing with unknown quantities here as this situation has never arisen before.
However, modelled outputs can be swayed by the assumptions plugged into it. I would imagine the likes of BoE are horrified at the current situation and their analysis reflects that. I was at an Investment Bank at the time of the Referendum and almost to a man (apart from a couple of fx traders who had hedged) were walking around the place shaking their heads in disbelief in what had just happened. They do not like the unknown. The unknown automatically = bad to them (and i understand that completely, i just dont beleive the long-term effects will be negative on a no-deal, but concede short term will be challenging)
The charts such as the ones battersea provided and other worst case metrics are understandable given their feelings on the situation, but they are not facts (at least not yet). They certainly cant go around screaming from the rooftops that everything is awesome, when in fact, they have no idea and it may not. If they did that and they were wrong - then definitely, all credibility disappears. On the flip side, if they predict doom and gloom in the beginning and it turns out not as bad, then nobody really cares and credibility stays intact. (this last bit is key to the fair point you made about credibility.) [Post edited 28 Nov 2018 19:38]
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| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 20:02 - Nov 28 with 1105 views | Shaky |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:37 - Nov 28 by PozuelosSideys |
I wouldnt disagree with anything youve said there. But we are dealing with unknown quantities here as this situation has never arisen before.
However, modelled outputs can be swayed by the assumptions plugged into it. I would imagine the likes of BoE are horrified at the current situation and their analysis reflects that. I was at an Investment Bank at the time of the Referendum and almost to a man (apart from a couple of fx traders who had hedged) were walking around the place shaking their heads in disbelief in what had just happened. They do not like the unknown. The unknown automatically = bad to them (and i understand that completely, i just dont beleive the long-term effects will be negative on a no-deal, but concede short term will be challenging)
The charts such as the ones battersea provided and other worst case metrics are understandable given their feelings on the situation, but they are not facts (at least not yet). They certainly cant go around screaming from the rooftops that everything is awesome, when in fact, they have no idea and it may not. If they did that and they were wrong - then definitely, all credibility disappears. On the flip side, if they predict doom and gloom in the beginning and it turns out not as bad, then nobody really cares and credibility stays intact. (this last bit is key to the fair point you made about credibility.) [Post edited 28 Nov 2018 19:38]
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In fact similar situations involving capital flight have occurred many times in past bubble economies, with reasonably predictable effects on exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, net FDI, etc.
Of course there are no certainties but these things can be modelled and sensitivities assessed.
In the absence of any analytical work your belief that things will not turn out as bad as predicted is nothing more than an article of faith.
However, no doubt many, many serious private and academic economists will be going through these forecasts and the methodology that underlies them in the coming months. This is the discipline that the markets impose on central banking.
If Nomura, Goldman, the OECD, etc, say there is something funny I will take notice. on the other hand if what I hear is this is more project fear no matter how that is phrased I will ignore it. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 20:58 - Nov 28 with 1088 views | majorraglan |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:52 - Nov 28 by longlostjack |
Good. Then the country can get back to real problems that affect everyday folk as opposed to the élites like Boris Johnson, Rees Mogg and Viscount Rothermere who see the EU as a potential threat to their precious tax havens. [Post edited 28 Nov 2018 17:52]
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I suspect there may be something in the Tax Haven business, I heard this week that 61 of the worlds 67 tax havens are UK dependent territories, that’s a shocking state of affairs and needs to be sorted.
In terms of the economic impact, I think we need to keep an open mind and listen to all the evidence. Some are calling the ecomomc modelling Project Fear, I guess that’s because they don’t like what’s being published, the same as Donald Trump talks about Fake News.
What I am not hearing much of are economic projections from the ERG and JRM. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 22:23 - Nov 28 with 1047 views | Jango |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 19:04 - Nov 28 by Shaky |
Leading academic economist and Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member casts doubt on Bank of England hard Brexit forecast:
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Worst case scenario forecast.
The Bank of England has made a number of assumptions - not forecasts - about what would cause a disorderly Brexit.
The UK reverts to World Trade Organization rules
No new trade deals are implemented by 2022
The UK loses all access to existing trade agreements between the EU and third countries
Severe disruption at borders because of customs checks
Migration reverses from 150,000 a year to falling by 100,000 a year
Aliens take over 10 Downing Street
Liverpool win the league.
The Bank of England does not give a probability of this happening. | | | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 08:12 - Nov 29 with 970 views | westwalesed |
The trouble I have with these forecasts is simply this. The Bank of England is supposed to be impartial. So, fine give us the worst case scenario which they have over and over. Where is the best case scenario then? On good assumptions? | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:03 - Nov 29 with 944 views | Batterseajack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 08:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
The trouble I have with these forecasts is simply this. The Bank of England is supposed to be impartial. So, fine give us the worst case scenario which they have over and over. Where is the best case scenario then? On good assumptions? |
They've tested their bank against a range from close economic partnership to disruptive to a disorderly Brexit. Maybe a disorderly under a last minute switch to no deal WTO brexit, becomes just a disruptive Brexit as maybe the companies quickly prepare themselves. Who knows? But there's a range of outcomes there. Its only a 5 year model so they've probably ruled out quick deals with other countries taking place since they usually take longer (7+ years) and aren't usually conducted at the same time since this complicates matters. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:17 - Nov 29 with 938 views | ItchySphincter |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:39 - Nov 28 by Shaky |
The question is how many leave voters were prepared to become materially poorer when they originally voted, because that is certainly not what they were promised.
Happily a second referendum can go some way to clearing this up, because it will be based on a transferable vote where second preferences count if your first choice gets binned by popular consent.
Even if you buy something on Amazon or eBay there is a statutory cooling off period, where you can say sorry, I don't want this after all. Or retain the product once you have had a good look at it.
This is no different. And significantly more important to get right. [Post edited 28 Nov 2018 12:40]
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Most of them weren’t thinking about it he money in their pockets, or the future of our children when they were getting all excited about stopping the brown people getting in. |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:19 - Nov 29 with 934 views | ItchySphincter |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:14 - Nov 28 by sherpajacob |
"Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that. "
Question for the OP.
Please expand on "about more than that"
Having admitted the country will be poorer and therefore there will be less money for the NHS and other vital services, Why did you vote leave? |
Maybe he’s a thick racist that likes being skint? | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:20 - Nov 29 with 934 views | Jango |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:03 - Nov 29 by Batterseajack |
They've tested their bank against a range from close economic partnership to disruptive to a disorderly Brexit. Maybe a disorderly under a last minute switch to no deal WTO brexit, becomes just a disruptive Brexit as maybe the companies quickly prepare themselves. Who knows? But there's a range of outcomes there. Its only a 5 year model so they've probably ruled out quick deals with other countries taking place since they usually take longer (7+ years) and aren't usually conducted at the same time since this complicates matters. |
They’ve ruled out quick deals but haven’t ruled out a swing of 250k a year on net immigration. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:21 - Nov 29 with 934 views | ItchySphincter |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:01 - Nov 28 by Catullus |
I can answer that too. I honestly believe the pain will be a short term problem and in the long term we'll be better off.
I also have the opinion that the EU is corrupt, anti democratic and wasteful, as well as overly secretive. Transparency and accountability matter.
Looking around Europe the divide over the EU is almost everywhere. Nearly every member state has growing anti EU sentiment, even in Germany.
I thought we'd done this to death and every possible reason had been stated, why ask again? |
Yeah, reform is the order of the day. Oh, hang on..... | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:22 - Nov 29 with 933 views | Shaky |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 08:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
The trouble I have with these forecasts is simply this. The Bank of England is supposed to be impartial. So, fine give us the worst case scenario which they have over and over. Where is the best case scenario then? On good assumptions? |
I haven't studied the BoE report itself, but i would be very surprised if the growing narrative about this being the absolute worst rock bottom scenario were true.
The simple fact is that markets are well understood to overshoot fundamental valuations both on the upside leading to bubbles and on the downside leading to economic slumps. Things could certainly get worse, and I would be very surprised if we don't see at least a 50% fall in house prices on a 5-10 year view, and quite possibly something in the order of 75%.
It is also a fact that contrary to popular misconception there is no inherent self-correcting economic mechanism, so a seemingly endless virtuous cycle can certainly turn into a persistent downward spiral.
Now such a scenario is implausible solely on account of Brexit, but in the context of the global economy with trade wars breaking out all over the place and asset markets near all time highs, that is most certainly not out of the question. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:28 - Nov 29 with 925 views | WarwickHunt |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 08:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
The trouble I have with these forecasts is simply this. The Bank of England is supposed to be impartial. So, fine give us the worst case scenario which they have over and over. Where is the best case scenario then? On good assumptions? |
The Bank of England gave the “worst case scenario” because that’s exactly what the Treasury Select Committee asked them to do. It’s one of the functions of a central bank.
Funnily enough, The Treasury itself came up with a report yesterday saying under all Brexit scenarios, including May’s final deal, the UK would be worse off.
I suppose Whitehall is biased against its own government too...
Brexiters. Bless ‘em. |  | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:30 - Nov 29 with 922 views | Jango |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:35 - Nov 29 with 917 views | WarwickHunt |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:30 - Nov 29 by Jango |
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Iain Dale. 😂 | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:05 - Nov 29 with 906 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 20:02 - Nov 28 by Shaky |
In fact similar situations involving capital flight have occurred many times in past bubble economies, with reasonably predictable effects on exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, net FDI, etc.
Of course there are no certainties but these things can be modelled and sensitivities assessed.
In the absence of any analytical work your belief that things will not turn out as bad as predicted is nothing more than an article of faith.
However, no doubt many, many serious private and academic economists will be going through these forecasts and the methodology that underlies them in the coming months. This is the discipline that the markets impose on central banking.
If Nomura, Goldman, the OECD, etc, say there is something funny I will take notice. on the other hand if what I hear is this is more project fear no matter how that is phrased I will ignore it. |
Nomura and Goldies? Im starting to think you've found my linkedin page mate 
"Project Fear" is just another tagline such as "snowflake". Forget that. It should be called "Project Doom and Gloom". To remain credible we have to provide all sorts of scenarios, especially worst case. If we predict the worst and it doesn't happen, nobody cares and is forgotten in a couple of weeks. If we predict sunshine and lollipops for all and we are wrong, all credibility is lost and we are reminded about it forever. Look at the Boris bus -never to be forgotten. However, look at the Governments £9m leaflet campaign predicting plague and famine, complete bollox but has been forgotten about in the crossfire almost entirely.
On the hand of course, the output could be entirely legitimate and they could be spot on. I personally doubt it, but we have to wait for the hindsight position. | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:24 - Nov 29 with 897 views | Shaky |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:05 - Nov 29 by PozuelosSideys |
Nomura and Goldies? Im starting to think you've found my linkedin page mate
"Project Fear" is just another tagline such as "snowflake". Forget that. It should be called "Project Doom and Gloom". To remain credible we have to provide all sorts of scenarios, especially worst case. If we predict the worst and it doesn't happen, nobody cares and is forgotten in a couple of weeks. If we predict sunshine and lollipops for all and we are wrong, all credibility is lost and we are reminded about it forever. Look at the Boris bus -never to be forgotten. However, look at the Governments £9m leaflet campaign predicting plague and famine, complete bollox but has been forgotten about in the crossfire almost entirely.
On the hand of course, the output could be entirely legitimate and they could be spot on. I personally doubt it, but we have to wait for the hindsight position. |
Are you saying you have worked as an economist at an investment bank? | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:38 - Nov 29 with 893 views | Jango |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:35 - Nov 29 by WarwickHunt |
Iain Dale. 😂 |
Spot on though isn’t he. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:40 - Nov 29 with 888 views | WarwickHunt |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:38 - Nov 29 by Jango |
Spot on though isn’t he. |
No. He really isn't. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:51 - Nov 29 with 872 views | Highjack |
It’s a real pity these leading economists with their models and their graphs and their powers of clairvoyance didn’t predict the financial crash in 2008. | |
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