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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins 12:26 - Nov 28 with 7400 viewswestwalesed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162
Impending financial doom whatever Brexit outcome we have.

What they fail to understand is that many Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that.

But the deal will be rightly rejected, we will have a new Referendum, the Leave vote will be deliberately split with three options (Deal, No Deal, Remain) and we will end up Remaining.

Then all the thicko-inbreds from ghastly places like the North East and the Welsh Valleys can jolly well get back in their boxes.

Ruthlessly crushed.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:39 - Nov 28 with 3346 viewsShaky

The question is how many leave voters were prepared to become materially poorer when they originally voted, because that is certainly not what they were promised.

Happily a second referendum can go some way to clearing this up, because it will be based on a transferable vote where second preferences count if your first choice gets binned by popular consent.

Even if you buy something on Amazon or eBay there is a statutory cooling off period, where you can say sorry, I don't want this after all. Or retain the product once you have had a good look at it.

This is no different. And significantly more important to get right.
[Post edited 28 Nov 2018 12:40]

Misology -- It's a bitch
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:07 - Nov 28 with 3291 viewsbyron

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:39 - Nov 28 by Shaky

The question is how many leave voters were prepared to become materially poorer when they originally voted, because that is certainly not what they were promised.

Happily a second referendum can go some way to clearing this up, because it will be based on a transferable vote where second preferences count if your first choice gets binned by popular consent.

Even if you buy something on Amazon or eBay there is a statutory cooling off period, where you can say sorry, I don't want this after all. Or retain the product once you have had a good look at it.

This is no different. And significantly more important to get right.
[Post edited 28 Nov 2018 12:40]


It’s really suspect in my opinion how May is DeAd against a new referendum, the desperation of how she appears makes me think she’s already tied up deals for her buddies, her husband etc post brexit that will see them do very nicely, like most politicians do. She can see it all falling apart and it must be killing her.

Benny

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:08 - Nov 28 with 3290 viewswestwalesed

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:39 - Nov 28 by Shaky

The question is how many leave voters were prepared to become materially poorer when they originally voted, because that is certainly not what they were promised.

Happily a second referendum can go some way to clearing this up, because it will be based on a transferable vote where second preferences count if your first choice gets binned by popular consent.

Even if you buy something on Amazon or eBay there is a statutory cooling off period, where you can say sorry, I don't want this after all. Or retain the product once you have had a good look at it.

This is no different. And significantly more important to get right.
[Post edited 28 Nov 2018 12:40]


The issue of "how many people thought this or that" is somewhat redundant because we will never know that. I suspect that most Leave voters would have understood that there would be instability when we left, followed by longer term gains (which I still believe a clean Brexit could facilitate). As I said though its redundant. We can speculate on why people voted a certain way but we simply don't know.

If it's done on a transferable vote then that would go some way to allaying my fears, but I don't agree with the principal of a Second Vote as you can imagine. I even heard someone saying the other day that we should have a Second vote because two years worth of young people who had their futures "stolen" could now vote! And the nasty oldies had died! I mean, you can't make this stuff up!

Will we have a cooling off period when the 2nd Referendum results in a vote to Remain?

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:14 - Nov 28 with 3282 viewssherpajacob

"Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that. "

Question for the OP.

Please expand on "about more than that"

Having admitted the country will be poorer and therefore there will be less money for the NHS and other vital services, Why did you vote leave?

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:27 - Nov 28 with 3259 viewswestwalesed

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:14 - Nov 28 by sherpajacob

"Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that. "

Question for the OP.

Please expand on "about more than that"

Having admitted the country will be poorer and therefore there will be less money for the NHS and other vital services, Why did you vote leave?


My primary thought process was not about me - "my generation" but about my (hopefully!!!!) future children one day. I firmly believe that the European Union is a Political project which will result in the United States of Europe - that's the trajectory anyway (anthems, Presidents, Currencies, an Army, a common financial policy etc etc) - and I did not want the UK to be a part of that.

I wanted us to regain our Sovereignty in its truest sense, to become a fully Independent nation again. That would give us the flexibility to strike trade deals around the world (including with the EU) which I believe, in the long run would make us wealthier.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:28 - Nov 28 with 3257 viewsShaky

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:08 - Nov 28 by westwalesed

The issue of "how many people thought this or that" is somewhat redundant because we will never know that. I suspect that most Leave voters would have understood that there would be instability when we left, followed by longer term gains (which I still believe a clean Brexit could facilitate). As I said though its redundant. We can speculate on why people voted a certain way but we simply don't know.

If it's done on a transferable vote then that would go some way to allaying my fears, but I don't agree with the principal of a Second Vote as you can imagine. I even heard someone saying the other day that we should have a Second vote because two years worth of young people who had their futures "stolen" could now vote! And the nasty oldies had died! I mean, you can't make this stuff up!

Will we have a cooling off period when the 2nd Referendum results in a vote to Remain?


Everybody already knows what they have, immigration, warts, and all.

The leave side in effect put out a prospectus for how things would be, both after leaving but also the path towards that. You know, the £350 million/week for the NHS, the ease of negotiation, the cake and the eating.

In much the same way that online- and tele-marketers make claims about how fantastic their products and services are.

It is now perfectly reasonable to ask people whether the reality is acceptable and consistent with their expectations; do you still want to go ahead?

By the way, if I am not very much mistaken we have the EU to thank for the distance selling regulations, that by law gives us a cooling off period and the right to return even a biro bought online if we are unhappy with it. i personally find that rather useful, don't you?

Misology -- It's a bitch
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:45 - Nov 28 with 3232 viewssherpajacob

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:27 - Nov 28 by westwalesed

My primary thought process was not about me - "my generation" but about my (hopefully!!!!) future children one day. I firmly believe that the European Union is a Political project which will result in the United States of Europe - that's the trajectory anyway (anthems, Presidents, Currencies, an Army, a common financial policy etc etc) - and I did not want the UK to be a part of that.

I wanted us to regain our Sovereignty in its truest sense, to become a fully Independent nation again. That would give us the flexibility to strike trade deals around the world (including with the EU) which I believe, in the long run would make us wealthier.


The sovereignty and strike our own trade deals argument.

And you still want to leave, despite both those arguments having been absolutely demolished.?


https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1066637592144285697

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:50 - Nov 28 with 3223 viewswestwalesed

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:28 - Nov 28 by Shaky

Everybody already knows what they have, immigration, warts, and all.

The leave side in effect put out a prospectus for how things would be, both after leaving but also the path towards that. You know, the £350 million/week for the NHS, the ease of negotiation, the cake and the eating.

In much the same way that online- and tele-marketers make claims about how fantastic their products and services are.

It is now perfectly reasonable to ask people whether the reality is acceptable and consistent with their expectations; do you still want to go ahead?

By the way, if I am not very much mistaken we have the EU to thank for the distance selling regulations, that by law gives us a cooling off period and the right to return even a biro bought online if we are unhappy with it. i personally find that rather useful, don't you?


And the Remain side putout their own Prospectus about why it was good to stay, and the impact of leaving - for example we would need an Emergency Budget as soon as we left, or that we would be 500,000 jobs worse off. I'm not interested in tit for tat, but the fact is both sides put their arguments "creatively". It is what happens in elections. Some people see through it, others swallow it. It is what it is. For example, I knew that £350 Million would not be spend solely on the NHS but it cannot be argued that repatriating that money means we can spend it on what we like.

Respectfully, elections and referenda are not like buying a biro. The reason being that if you as a sentient individual of their own free will chooses to return a biro, they are affecting themselves and themselves alone. Voting is a civic duty. The outcome of a vote is that a collective decision is made as a society. Once we break that agreement, by having a "cooling off period" then it actually has huge ramifications for the way we run our society as a whole.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:57 - Nov 28 with 3210 viewswestwalesed

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:45 - Nov 28 by sherpajacob

The sovereignty and strike our own trade deals argument.

And you still want to leave, despite both those arguments having been absolutely demolished.?


https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1066637592144285697


Lets just take the Sovereignty argument. I used Trade deals as an example but it can just as easily be applied to Fisheries, Agriculture, Immigration, whatever.

I believe, as a point of principal, that any laws or decisions taken (and that therefore could affect my life and how I choose to live it) should be taken by elected representatives or are democratically and directly accountable to me. I do not believe that a foreign Parliament should carry precedence over the UK Parliament, particularly as the people who propose laws debated in that Parliament are unelected.

I believe that the benefits of full and complete self determination are that the UK is able to forge it's own way in the World, is able to respond to its own needs first and that this would lead to prosperity in the future.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 15:24 - Nov 28 with 3146 viewsMorfa_Same

Leavers keep on about negotiating our own trade deals, but I haven't heard any leaver explain why they will be any better than the many excellent trade deals we already have, given that the EU has far more negotiating power than us (5 times our size), and it has been all too apparent over the last two years that our government can't negotiate their way out of a telephone box.

Oh, and project fear was what the leavers pulled off with talk of 75 million invading Turks.
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 15:50 - Nov 28 with 3122 viewsShaky

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:50 - Nov 28 by westwalesed

And the Remain side putout their own Prospectus about why it was good to stay, and the impact of leaving - for example we would need an Emergency Budget as soon as we left, or that we would be 500,000 jobs worse off. I'm not interested in tit for tat, but the fact is both sides put their arguments "creatively". It is what happens in elections. Some people see through it, others swallow it. It is what it is. For example, I knew that £350 Million would not be spend solely on the NHS but it cannot be argued that repatriating that money means we can spend it on what we like.

Respectfully, elections and referenda are not like buying a biro. The reason being that if you as a sentient individual of their own free will chooses to return a biro, they are affecting themselves and themselves alone. Voting is a civic duty. The outcome of a vote is that a collective decision is made as a society. Once we break that agreement, by having a "cooling off period" then it actually has huge ramifications for the way we run our society as a whole.


On the contrary.

Casting a vote in an election is a reflection of your support for a political prospectus as set out in a party manifesto.

You then have a cooling off period of a number of years, and the chance to reaffirm or change your vote at the next election. Precisely what determines that outcome of that relative to the first vote is impossible top generalise. The principle of reaffirmation and the right to change your mind is not, however.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:01 - Nov 28 with 3115 viewsCatullus

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:14 - Nov 28 by sherpajacob

"Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that. "

Question for the OP.

Please expand on "about more than that"

Having admitted the country will be poorer and therefore there will be less money for the NHS and other vital services, Why did you vote leave?


I can answer that too. I honestly believe the pain will be a short term problem and in the long term we'll be better off.
I also have the opinion that the EU is corrupt, anti democratic and wasteful, as well as overly secretive. Transparency and accountability matter.
Looking around Europe the divide over the EU is almost everywhere. Nearly every member state has growing anti EU sentiment, even in Germany.
I thought we'd done this to death and every possible reason had been stated, why ask again?

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins (n/t) on 16:17 - Nov 28 with 3090 viewsLeonWasGod

[Post edited 28 Nov 2018 16:26]
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:10 - Nov 28 with 3030 viewsHighjack

I’m still waiting for project fear mark I to come true.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:10 - Nov 28 with 3026 viewspikeypaul

Haha ha

Thought it would not take long for Carney and the BoE to get into this coordinated project fear mark 2 campaign.

33% off the price of houses they reckon this time how much was it in the immediate aftermath of the referendum?

Great for the youngsters to get on the housing market you would have thought,they must be hoping for a no deal now .PMSL

Interest rates up? About time savers got a good return on their cash from the Banks no wonder Carney is sh!tting it having made his mates 10s of billions over the last few years when constantly talking the £ down even before the vote for us to leave.

This all gets funnier by the day.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:14 - Nov 28 with 3022 viewsBatterseajack

Nothing to fear

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:25 - Nov 28 with 3007 viewsDJack

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:10 - Nov 28 by Highjack

I’m still waiting for project fear mark I to come true.


What you mean all those bullschit anti EU stories about non-straight cucumbers, small or curved bananas and the millions of Turks to flood Europe.

That Project Fear bore fruits and we are left with the current madness(no, not rules on the dried fruit).

It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:47 - Nov 28 with 2981 viewsPozuelosSideys

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:14 - Nov 28 by Batterseajack

Nothing to fear



See, the problem with scenario planning is that its using current data and historical data in an attempt to plan different potential futures. If the variables which are plugged in to fill the gaps are inaccurate or overly-weighted by personal opinions, then the outputs will be trash. (i would know this from personal experience on both side of the coin)

Additionally, on the subject of unemployment below. Do these figures take into account the number of EU nationals returning home after the exit date? If 500k of them left, then the number will be bollox, right? If the jobs dont exist, they are unlikely to hang about as they are (understandably and am not complaining about it) migrant labor - they follow the work..its why we are in this situation in the first place.

On the topic of GDP, lets be honest here, MoM and YoY, the forecasts have been significantly out of the results reporting. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but take analysis with a pinch of salt. They may have it spot on, it could be miles out, but recent track records arent great purely because we havent seen this situation before.

Also. Where is the scenario planning based on having to accept EU law, regulation and opertaional implementation? They hold the deck of cards and will stack them accordingly in their favour under May's "plan". Lets be honest, they want the City. Whats to stop their Courts and regulators levying disproportionate taxes, levies and regulations on Financial Services? That affects the UK far, far more than any other nation state within the EU.

Where is the scenario from the EU's point of view? If Germany reports another negative growth marker in the next quarter, they are officially in recession - yes, Germany. The bastion of power and englightement which is held up by everyone as the country we all aspire to.

Point being, that whole analysis appears to be based on answering a question to prove a point as per the Governments position. It is NOT neutral. We should be asking about the info and analysis which is not there.

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:52 - Nov 28 with 2977 viewslonglostjack

Good. Then the country can get back to real problems that affect everyday folk as opposed to the élites like Boris Johnson, Rees Mogg and Viscount Rothermere who see the EU as a potential threat to their precious tax havens.
[Post edited 28 Nov 2018 17:52]

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:52 - Nov 28 with 2977 viewsHighjack

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:25 - Nov 28 by DJack

What you mean all those bullschit anti EU stories about non-straight cucumbers, small or curved bananas and the millions of Turks to flood Europe.

That Project Fear bore fruits and we are left with the current madness(no, not rules on the dried fruit).


Well bendy cucumbers are a terrifying proposition.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:59 - Nov 28 with 2958 viewsDJack

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:52 - Nov 28 by Highjack

Well bendy cucumbers are a terrifying proposition.


Yep, you can't throw them away...they come straight back!

It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:13 - Nov 28 with 2936 views_

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:08 - Nov 28 by westwalesed

The issue of "how many people thought this or that" is somewhat redundant because we will never know that. I suspect that most Leave voters would have understood that there would be instability when we left, followed by longer term gains (which I still believe a clean Brexit could facilitate). As I said though its redundant. We can speculate on why people voted a certain way but we simply don't know.

If it's done on a transferable vote then that would go some way to allaying my fears, but I don't agree with the principal of a Second Vote as you can imagine. I even heard someone saying the other day that we should have a Second vote because two years worth of young people who had their futures "stolen" could now vote! And the nasty oldies had died! I mean, you can't make this stuff up!

Will we have a cooling off period when the 2nd Referendum results in a vote to Remain?


Can I ask what qualifies you to predict the short term instability but long term prosperity?

You're all out of time....the past was yours but the future's mine.
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:16 - Nov 28 with 2931 viewsBatterseajack

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:47 - Nov 28 by PozuelosSideys

See, the problem with scenario planning is that its using current data and historical data in an attempt to plan different potential futures. If the variables which are plugged in to fill the gaps are inaccurate or overly-weighted by personal opinions, then the outputs will be trash. (i would know this from personal experience on both side of the coin)

Additionally, on the subject of unemployment below. Do these figures take into account the number of EU nationals returning home after the exit date? If 500k of them left, then the number will be bollox, right? If the jobs dont exist, they are unlikely to hang about as they are (understandably and am not complaining about it) migrant labor - they follow the work..its why we are in this situation in the first place.

On the topic of GDP, lets be honest here, MoM and YoY, the forecasts have been significantly out of the results reporting. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but take analysis with a pinch of salt. They may have it spot on, it could be miles out, but recent track records arent great purely because we havent seen this situation before.

Also. Where is the scenario planning based on having to accept EU law, regulation and opertaional implementation? They hold the deck of cards and will stack them accordingly in their favour under May's "plan". Lets be honest, they want the City. Whats to stop their Courts and regulators levying disproportionate taxes, levies and regulations on Financial Services? That affects the UK far, far more than any other nation state within the EU.

Where is the scenario from the EU's point of view? If Germany reports another negative growth marker in the next quarter, they are officially in recession - yes, Germany. The bastion of power and englightement which is held up by everyone as the country we all aspire to.

Point being, that whole analysis appears to be based on answering a question to prove a point as per the Governments position. It is NOT neutral. We should be asking about the info and analysis which is not there.


Sounds like you know more about this than the government. Begs the question why anyone bothers carrying out financial forecasts.
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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:21 - Nov 28 with 2927 viewsPozuelosSideys

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:16 - Nov 28 by Batterseajack

Sounds like you know more about this than the government. Begs the question why anyone bothers carrying out financial forecasts.


Dont go putting words in my mouth now. But, I will put money on it that i have a great deal more experience of financial modelling, analytics and scenario planning than any current politician.

Theres a basic saying with stuff like this which is sh1t in = sh1t out. If teh variables and assumptions are flawed, then so is the outut. Its the financial equivalent of spin-doctoring.

Im not interested in point scoring here as frankly the intellectual capability of politicians on both sides, particularly our own is shambolic and i wouldnt trust them to open a tin of beans. All im saying is take this stuff with a pinch of salt

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Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:35 - Nov 28 with 2911 viewsShaky

Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 18:21 - Nov 28 by PozuelosSideys

Dont go putting words in my mouth now. But, I will put money on it that i have a great deal more experience of financial modelling, analytics and scenario planning than any current politician.

Theres a basic saying with stuff like this which is sh1t in = sh1t out. If teh variables and assumptions are flawed, then so is the outut. Its the financial equivalent of spin-doctoring.

Im not interested in point scoring here as frankly the intellectual capability of politicians on both sides, particularly our own is shambolic and i wouldnt trust them to open a tin of beans. All im saying is take this stuff with a pinch of salt


Either you have misunderstood the difference between the economics department of the Bank of England and politicians, or you are making a straw man argument.


Misology -- It's a bitch
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