| Peterborough 10:38 - Jun 7 with 2595 views | ladyjack |
What to make of the Peterborough by-election ?
My thoughts were that it was a poor set of results for everybody, how can that be ?, surely things should balance out between a good result for some parties and a bad result for others but it seems to me to be a bad result for all the parties which go's against the normal balance of things, amazing.
Labour lost a huge amount of votes/vote share and they are the official opposition fighting an unpopular Government in a mid term by-election.
The Tories lost a huge amount even more votes/vote share than Labour, with the by-election called because the sitting Labour MP was jailed and the official opposition party currently very unpopular.
The Brexit party was expected to win by many, the area had a high leave vote and the sitting MP had been jailed, so if they were unable to win that seat under FPTP they will struggle to win any seats at all.
The Lib-Dem vote went up from a pathetic showing last time but still they only recorded 12% of the vote, I expected better, not a good sign for their hopes in any General Election.
The Greens had a bad night imo with a poor percentage of the vote, I expected better.
I'm struggling to see who it was a good result for looking at the overall picture with the next General Election in mind, nothing to do with who I vote for and as mad as it sounds but it could be viewed as a good result for SNP/Plaid although they don't stand in England as all those parties in the Peterborough by-election seemed one way or another to do badly. |  | | |  |
| Peterborough on 11:43 - Jun 7 with 1444 views | CountyJim |
The only real winner was Labour the bookies had them down to lose |  | | |
| Peterborough on 11:55 - Jun 7 with 1431 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
The Tories got 21.4% in the Peterborough by-election. Their worst result there for 139 years |  |
| |
| Peterborough on 12:13 - Jun 7 with 1405 views | sherpajacob |
Whilst labour lose a few votes to BP, the Tories lose a lot more.
It's regarded as a bellweather seat. So probably accurately reflects the political landscape in England
. Labour are terrible, but still the least worst main party option.
Tories are a shambles and lurching further to the right, in response to losing supporters because they've lurched to the right.
LD will get a,good proportion of votes but very few seats.
The BP vote shows that a significant minority want brexit at any cost, but it's certainly not the will of the majority.
Shame the Greens can't seem to make any headway.
Predictions that Labour would lose seats in strong leave areas have proved unfounded.
None of it may matter if senior Tories get their way and and prorogue parliament thereby ending democracy in the UK. |  |
| |
| Peterborough on 12:27 - Jun 7 with 1373 views | Wingstandwood |
Vote splitting stuff, that really changes the dynamic.
If there is a general election held in the midst of an unresolved Brexit many voters may very well return to old (Labour and Conservative) voting habits but (if standing) Brexit would still imo get enough votes to completely change another parties destiny.
Expected outcomes in constituencies of bygone past will be far less predictable in that climate imo. Those few thousand votes going elsewhere will make things a lot more interesting. A case of letting another party in through the back door!
The party (Labour and Tory) most resilient to Brexit defection from their traditional voting base will have a better chance at the ballot box. |  |
| |
| Peterborough on 13:37 - Jun 7 with 1291 views | ladyjack |
The next General Election -
Labour will lose votes in Labour strongholds to the Brexit party but still will win the vast majority of those seats.
Conservatives will lose votes in Conservative strongholds to the Brexit party but still will win the vast majority of those seats.
Brexit party will get lots of votes but very few seats under FPTP.
Lib-Dems will win marginal seats where they are the second party.
SNP will smash everybody.
Plaid will marginally increase their seats in the next GE and make more substantial gains in the next Welsh Assembly elections. | | | |
| Peterborough on 13:50 - Jun 7 with 1268 views | bluey_the_blue |
High postal vote count - hmm, always interesting given the demographic most likely to use postal votes and the views ( mistaken, clearly... ) of the winning candidate.
Since referendum, Labour have failed to increase vote share anywhere other than Batley and Spen - where no other major party stood. That's ominous for a GE loss given how unpopular Tories are.
Tories down 25.1, Labour down 17.1. A narrow win by 682 votes over an ( at the moment ) single issue party is both bad for the major parties but also shows Brexit party are a party to worry about, gaining votes for those angry about Brexit being prevented. Your'd expect those voters to be natural Tories but it also shows a significant number of Labour voters also unhappy.
Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways. Brexit have shown they are a force - Labour threw *everything* into the campaign, high level of postal votes which tend to favour Labour. 682 makes it a marginal. Tories? 7000 votes was a hell of a lot more than expected. Tories only need to win back a third of the Brexit votes there and they gain the seat. |  | | |
| Peterborough on 13:59 - Jun 7 with 1251 views | westside |
How did Farage get into Downing Street to post a letter into No 10 [Post edited 7 Jun 2019 14:00]
|  | | |
| Peterborough on 14:06 - Jun 7 with 1233 views | Humpty |
| Peterborough on 13:50 - Jun 7 by bluey_the_blue |
High postal vote count - hmm, always interesting given the demographic most likely to use postal votes and the views ( mistaken, clearly... ) of the winning candidate.
Since referendum, Labour have failed to increase vote share anywhere other than Batley and Spen - where no other major party stood. That's ominous for a GE loss given how unpopular Tories are.
Tories down 25.1, Labour down 17.1. A narrow win by 682 votes over an ( at the moment ) single issue party is both bad for the major parties but also shows Brexit party are a party to worry about, gaining votes for those angry about Brexit being prevented. Your'd expect those voters to be natural Tories but it also shows a significant number of Labour voters also unhappy.
Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways. Brexit have shown they are a force - Labour threw *everything* into the campaign, high level of postal votes which tend to favour Labour. 682 makes it a marginal. Tories? 7000 votes was a hell of a lot more than expected. Tories only need to win back a third of the Brexit votes there and they gain the seat. |
Fair play Bluey.
You're f*cking mad. |  | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Peterborough on 14:09 - Jun 7 with 1230 views | Uxbridge |
| Peterborough on 13:50 - Jun 7 by bluey_the_blue |
High postal vote count - hmm, always interesting given the demographic most likely to use postal votes and the views ( mistaken, clearly... ) of the winning candidate.
Since referendum, Labour have failed to increase vote share anywhere other than Batley and Spen - where no other major party stood. That's ominous for a GE loss given how unpopular Tories are.
Tories down 25.1, Labour down 17.1. A narrow win by 682 votes over an ( at the moment ) single issue party is both bad for the major parties but also shows Brexit party are a party to worry about, gaining votes for those angry about Brexit being prevented. Your'd expect those voters to be natural Tories but it also shows a significant number of Labour voters also unhappy.
Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways. Brexit have shown they are a force - Labour threw *everything* into the campaign, high level of postal votes which tend to favour Labour. 682 makes it a marginal. Tories? 7000 votes was a hell of a lot more than expected. Tories only need to win back a third of the Brexit votes there and they gain the seat. |
 Your best work yet Reddy!
Interesting stuff last night. Farage yet again fails to turn popularity into a member of parliament (losing that is something he may well hold the record for, and I'm sure if he stuck around for the final result, rather than scuttling out of the side exit) he could offered some words of condolence for the loser).
Anyone who thinks last night was anything other than a horrific night for the Tories is living in cloud cuckoo land. They're a spent force. They'll do well to get anywhere near 200 seats in any GE in the future.
As for Labour, to the winners the spoils. Obviously took a hit from the BxP which was inevitable, but they held off the Libs and Greens to a higher degree than expected which is not something they managed in the EU elections. Maybe a degree of tactical voting in that regard, which may be a change for the remain side of things, and something that is likely to become necessary if it comes to a general election. Labour will also be buoyed that they performed better than the bookies predicted, which is pretty in keeping with past elections for parliament.
Pluses and minuses for all the parties really. But if I were a Tory I'd be in despair as the party will either tack to the extreme right or be decimated in the short term. A horrific choice for many there. The Libs may well profit from some quality additions. If I were Farage, after apologising for everything I've ever done I'd also be pretty concerned that yet again I've come up short when it comes to parliament. Support never really gets above that 30% mark which, for a single issue party, makes you a force but not a controlling one. As for Labour, the leave voters are viewing them as a Remain party. Time to come out as one and they'll likely romp any GE. Would certainly do so if they ditched Corbyn. |  |
| |
| Peterborough on 14:09 - Jun 7 with 1225 views | bluey_the_blue |
| Peterborough on 14:06 - Jun 7 by Humpty |
Fair play Bluey.
You're f*cking mad. |
Not really. What would your assessment be?
Yes, Peterborough was a Leave area. Lib Dems increased their vote, sure, but nowhere near enough to show that a Leave area like Peterborough had changed and were now behind Remain.
Again, apart from Batley and Spen Labour have failed to increase their vote share in a single election since the referendum. Not one. Mid term, you expect opposition to make gains. When the sole thing that can be said is "yes, we're doing shit but Tories are doing worse" isn't an election winning tactic. | | | |
| Peterborough on 14:22 - Jun 7 with 1199 views | Humpty |
| Peterborough on 14:09 - Jun 7 by bluey_the_blue |
Not really. What would your assessment be?
Yes, Peterborough was a Leave area. Lib Dems increased their vote, sure, but nowhere near enough to show that a Leave area like Peterborough had changed and were now behind Remain.
Again, apart from Batley and Spen Labour have failed to increase their vote share in a single election since the referendum. Not one. Mid term, you expect opposition to make gains. When the sole thing that can be said is "yes, we're doing shit but Tories are doing worse" isn't an election winning tactic. |
Sorry I meant you're a glass half full type of chap.
Brexit Party did well as expected but will be disappointed not to have won. Labour will be pleased considering it was a strong leave area and the manner in which their last MP was forced to leave. How you can claim it as a "win" for the Tories I don't know. They came third in a marginal seat that they've historically often done well in after losing 25% of their vote.
I admire your optimism though. | | | |
| Peterborough on 14:24 - Jun 7 with 1190 views | WarwickHunt |
| Peterborough on 14:09 - Jun 7 by Uxbridge |
Your best work yet Reddy!
Interesting stuff last night. Farage yet again fails to turn popularity into a member of parliament (losing that is something he may well hold the record for, and I'm sure if he stuck around for the final result, rather than scuttling out of the side exit) he could offered some words of condolence for the loser).
Anyone who thinks last night was anything other than a horrific night for the Tories is living in cloud cuckoo land. They're a spent force. They'll do well to get anywhere near 200 seats in any GE in the future.
As for Labour, to the winners the spoils. Obviously took a hit from the BxP which was inevitable, but they held off the Libs and Greens to a higher degree than expected which is not something they managed in the EU elections. Maybe a degree of tactical voting in that regard, which may be a change for the remain side of things, and something that is likely to become necessary if it comes to a general election. Labour will also be buoyed that they performed better than the bookies predicted, which is pretty in keeping with past elections for parliament.
Pluses and minuses for all the parties really. But if I were a Tory I'd be in despair as the party will either tack to the extreme right or be decimated in the short term. A horrific choice for many there. The Libs may well profit from some quality additions. If I were Farage, after apologising for everything I've ever done I'd also be pretty concerned that yet again I've come up short when it comes to parliament. Support never really gets above that 30% mark which, for a single issue party, makes you a force but not a controlling one. As for Labour, the leave voters are viewing them as a Remain party. Time to come out as one and they'll likely romp any GE. Would certainly do so if they ditched Corbyn. |
From Stephen Bush ( from The New Statesman)
"A win for Labour and a major triumph for Labour's organisation and technical knowhow. They have known since Fiona Onasanya's trial began that they would need to fight and win this election and they used the time to go out, find their vote and mobilise it on the day thanks to the injection of more than 500 activists on the day itself, and Momentum-organised carpools to get their activists to Peterborough from around the country."
Slightly skewed the result. They won't be able to put 500 activists in every marginal by 11am in a GE.
They will however be able to ditch the clownshoe Corbyn. Unfortunately, he'll probably be replaced by John "I'm a Marxist" McDonnell... |  | | |
| Peterborough on 14:32 - Jun 7 with 1172 views | bluey_the_blue |
| Peterborough on 14:22 - Jun 7 by Humpty |
Sorry I meant you're a glass half full type of chap.
Brexit Party did well as expected but will be disappointed not to have won. Labour will be pleased considering it was a strong leave area and the manner in which their last MP was forced to leave. How you can claim it as a "win" for the Tories I don't know. They came third in a marginal seat that they've historically often done well in after losing 25% of their vote.
I admire your optimism though. |
I view it as a win for the Tories in that their vote was far better than they expected. Yes, lost 25% of vote, but it can't be a win for Labour when they lost 17% themselves.
Again, Labour have lost votes share every single election post Referendum. Threw everything into that election, held off Brexit by 682.
It only take a 3k swing from Brexit to Tories for the seat to be reclaimed. That's not unachievable in a GE - it solely depends upon who the next Tory leader is. | | | |
| Peterborough on 14:35 - Jun 7 with 1162 views | Humpty |
| Peterborough on 14:32 - Jun 7 by bluey_the_blue |
I view it as a win for the Tories in that their vote was far better than they expected. Yes, lost 25% of vote, but it can't be a win for Labour when they lost 17% themselves.
Again, Labour have lost votes share every single election post Referendum. Threw everything into that election, held off Brexit by 682.
It only take a 3k swing from Brexit to Tories for the seat to be reclaimed. That's not unachievable in a GE - it solely depends upon who the next Tory leader is. |
We'll agree to disagree then. | | | |
| Peterborough on 14:36 - Jun 7 with 1161 views | Uxbridge |
| Peterborough on 14:24 - Jun 7 by WarwickHunt |
From Stephen Bush ( from The New Statesman)
"A win for Labour and a major triumph for Labour's organisation and technical knowhow. They have known since Fiona Onasanya's trial began that they would need to fight and win this election and they used the time to go out, find their vote and mobilise it on the day thanks to the injection of more than 500 activists on the day itself, and Momentum-organised carpools to get their activists to Peterborough from around the country."
Slightly skewed the result. They won't be able to put 500 activists in every marginal by 11am in a GE.
They will however be able to ditch the clownshoe Corbyn. Unfortunately, he'll probably be replaced by John "I'm a Marxist" McDonnell... |
That goes for the other parties too, to varying degrees of course.
Funnily enough, I think one of my former MPs would do a far better job than his boss. The great British electorate have shown that what you've said in the past has absolutely no bearing on anything. McDonell would be far less of a liability. Obviously the likes of Starmer would wipe the floor with the lot but the rabid element wouldn't go along with that. | |
| |
| Peterborough on 14:45 - Jun 7 with 1144 views | WarwickHunt |
| Peterborough on 14:36 - Jun 7 by Uxbridge |
That goes for the other parties too, to varying degrees of course.
Funnily enough, I think one of my former MPs would do a far better job than his boss. The great British electorate have shown that what you've said in the past has absolutely no bearing on anything. McDonell would be far less of a liability. Obviously the likes of Starmer would wipe the floor with the lot but the rabid element wouldn't go along with that. |
He's a "red Tory" who doesn't look like he spent the night in a skip.
No chance, sadly. | | | |
| Peterborough on 15:18 - Jun 7 with 1086 views | Lord_Bony |
| Peterborough on 14:35 - Jun 7 by Humpty |
We'll agree to disagree then. |
Welcome back Humpty. |  |
| |
| Peterborough on 15:26 - Jun 7 with 1076 views | CountyJim |
| Peterborough on 13:50 - Jun 7 by bluey_the_blue |
High postal vote count - hmm, always interesting given the demographic most likely to use postal votes and the views ( mistaken, clearly... ) of the winning candidate.
Since referendum, Labour have failed to increase vote share anywhere other than Batley and Spen - where no other major party stood. That's ominous for a GE loss given how unpopular Tories are.
Tories down 25.1, Labour down 17.1. A narrow win by 682 votes over an ( at the moment ) single issue party is both bad for the major parties but also shows Brexit party are a party to worry about, gaining votes for those angry about Brexit being prevented. Your'd expect those voters to be natural Tories but it also shows a significant number of Labour voters also unhappy.
Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways. Brexit have shown they are a force - Labour threw *everything* into the campaign, high level of postal votes which tend to favour Labour. 682 makes it a marginal. Tories? 7000 votes was a hell of a lot more than expected. Tories only need to win back a third of the Brexit votes there and they gain the seat. |
Well the bookies who don't often get it wrong had Labour at 7/1 in other words no chance
It was labour's night no matter how you spin it | | | |
| Peterborough on 15:33 - Jun 7 with 1067 views | bluey_the_blue |
| Peterborough on 15:26 - Jun 7 by CountyJim |
Well the bookies who don't often get it wrong had Labour at 7/1 in other words no chance
It was labour's night no matter how you spin it |
It's not a case of spin - retain a seat, lose 17.1% of vote share in the process. That's not a great achievement. Yet again, since the referendum, Labour have failed to gain vote share in any election aside from one where other major parties did not stand.
That's a trend that's worrying for any Labour supporter.
It's also the lowest winning percentage in a by-election since 1908. | | | |
| Peterborough on 15:48 - Jun 7 with 1051 views | Pegojack |
To answer the OP, no I don't know what to make of the by election.
I DO know it was a joy to see the smile wiped off the face of the smug caant Farage........ |  | | |
| Peterborough on 16:04 - Jun 7 with 1033 views | Humpty |
| Peterborough on 15:18 - Jun 7 by Lord_Bony |
Welcome back Humpty. |
Cheers mate. | | | |
| Peterborough on 16:18 - Jun 7 with 1014 views | LeonWasGod |
| Peterborough on 13:50 - Jun 7 by bluey_the_blue |
High postal vote count - hmm, always interesting given the demographic most likely to use postal votes and the views ( mistaken, clearly... ) of the winning candidate.
Since referendum, Labour have failed to increase vote share anywhere other than Batley and Spen - where no other major party stood. That's ominous for a GE loss given how unpopular Tories are.
Tories down 25.1, Labour down 17.1. A narrow win by 682 votes over an ( at the moment ) single issue party is both bad for the major parties but also shows Brexit party are a party to worry about, gaining votes for those angry about Brexit being prevented. Your'd expect those voters to be natural Tories but it also shows a significant number of Labour voters also unhappy.
Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways. Brexit have shown they are a force - Labour threw *everything* into the campaign, high level of postal votes which tend to favour Labour. 682 makes it a marginal. Tories? 7000 votes was a hell of a lot more than expected. Tories only need to win back a third of the Brexit votes there and they gain the seat. |
Yep, the Tories are a clear winner with their 25% decline in support and slipping down to third place. |  | | |
| Peterborough on 16:26 - Jun 7 with 1004 views | bluey_the_blue |
| Peterborough on 16:18 - Jun 7 by LeonWasGod |
Yep, the Tories are a clear winner with their 25% decline in support and slipping down to third place. |
Clear winner? Try not to put words in people's mouths.
Nobody expected Tories to get 7k. Nobody, party believed would be a lot worse. In terms of outperforming expectations, yeah, they did. Labour lost 17.1% of support. That's hardly a winning tactic, continuing Labour's incredible loss of support in elections since referendum. Tories are bottoming out, only way is up. Labour have peaked under Corbyn and are in decline.
What will be interesting is what happens in a GE; will Brexit voters flock back to Tories. Will Brexit party be able to fight 650 constituencies, or will they enter a pact with Tories - Brexit don't stand in Tory majorities/minorities, focus resources on Labour targets in hope of a coalition of sorts. | | | |
| Peterborough on 16:30 - Jun 7 with 998 views | LeonWasGod |
| Peterborough on 16:18 - Jun 7 by LeonWasGod |
Yep, the Tories are a clear winner with their 25% decline in support and slipping down to third place. |
"Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways"
Neither actually won.
PS. I'm yanking your chain Bluey. I'm not particularly interested in whoever 'won'. Your vaillant defense of possibly the worst result on the night did raise a wry smile though. [Post edited 7 Jun 2019 16:34]
| | | |
| Peterborough on 16:34 - Jun 7 with 989 views | bluey_the_blue |
| Peterborough on 16:30 - Jun 7 by LeonWasGod |
"Who "won"? I'd say Tories and Brexit party in their own ways"
Neither actually won.
PS. I'm yanking your chain Bluey. I'm not particularly interested in whoever 'won'. Your vaillant defense of possibly the worst result on the night did raise a wry smile though. [Post edited 7 Jun 2019 16:34]
|
Well, duh. Labour retained the seat.
In terms of the meaning and underlying issues arising from the result on the other hand.
Like it or not, Tories and Brexit party got 50% of the vote. That's a major issue going forward. | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
