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Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 223475 viewsSgorioFruit

Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy.

My methods are not favoured by some but by god i speak the truth.
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Corona Virus on 12:01 - Apr 2 with 645 viewsScotia

Corona Virus on 11:11 - Apr 2 by LeonWasGod

If masks didn't work, medical professionals the world over wouldn't be clamouring to use them. That's all the evidence you need.


In all fairness that is a differnt type of mask to the ones your see being worn on the street though.
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Corona Virus on 12:07 - Apr 2 with 629 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 11:48 - Apr 2 by Scotia

I completely agree.

One poster arguing against an obvious academic in the field because "he read it on a forum"

Thank God we have real scientists leading this battle rather than people who's scientific ability extends no further than typing something in to google.


So I make a valid argument that malaria is not a virus (it is an apicomplexan protozoan) and get shot down by a quote from a business programmer. I am not virologist, but I have worked in infectious disease research for nearly 25 years. I set up and ran a successful MSc on Infection and Disease Control and have published more than a 100 research papers. I am not a coronavirus expert but have a good friend and colleague who is. I have other medic colleagues who are absolute leaders in treating emerging viral infections. I am reading the primary literature not some opinion on the internet.

My friend it beggars belief
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Corona Virus on 12:14 - Apr 2 with 618 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Corona Virus on 11:56 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad

So let's go through the logic shall we?
If you leave the worst cases in the General Hospital it means that all the Staff looking after them, Doctors, Nurse Auxiliaries and Porters have to move through the hospital after treating them.
It means that the virus is still in the Hospital.
But worst of all it means all the ICU beds are still blocked by COVID19 patients for weeks at a time, preventing them being used by everyone else who needs them.

Now I ask you for a Yes or No, does it sound like a good idea?


My comment was not directed at you, but if you want my opinion because that is all I can offer, my opinion is I don't know because a) it is outside my area of expertise and b) I don't even know what information I would need to glean from where and from who to get to any level of understanding.
What I do now that anyone with experience of large scale service planning and delivery understands the concept of unintended consequences.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack

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Corona Virus on 12:19 - Apr 2 with 606 viewsJoe_bradshaw

Corona Virus on 12:07 - Apr 2 by Professor

So I make a valid argument that malaria is not a virus (it is an apicomplexan protozoan) and get shot down by a quote from a business programmer. I am not virologist, but I have worked in infectious disease research for nearly 25 years. I set up and ran a successful MSc on Infection and Disease Control and have published more than a 100 research papers. I am not a coronavirus expert but have a good friend and colleague who is. I have other medic colleagues who are absolute leaders in treating emerging viral infections. I am reading the primary literature not some opinion on the internet.

My friend it beggars belief


Quite.

There are people on Planet Swans who come across as though they know everything about everything. They clearly think they do.

Please keep posting, Prof. Your knowledge on these matters is invaluable to us at these times.

Planet Swans Prediction League Winner Season 2013-14. Runner up 2014_15.
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Corona Virus on 12:21 - Apr 2 with 589 viewsThebus

Corona Virus on 12:07 - Apr 2 by Professor

So I make a valid argument that malaria is not a virus (it is an apicomplexan protozoan) and get shot down by a quote from a business programmer. I am not virologist, but I have worked in infectious disease research for nearly 25 years. I set up and ran a successful MSc on Infection and Disease Control and have published more than a 100 research papers. I am not a coronavirus expert but have a good friend and colleague who is. I have other medic colleagues who are absolute leaders in treating emerging viral infections. I am reading the primary literature not some opinion on the internet.

My friend it beggars belief


As a scientist your views are way out of line of other scientists like Neil Ferguson.
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Corona Virus on 12:22 - Apr 2 with 582 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 11:48 - Apr 2 by Scotia

I completely agree.

One poster arguing against an obvious academic in the field because "he read it on a forum"

Thank God we have real scientists leading this battle rather than people who's scientific ability extends no further than typing something in to google.


I did not "read it on a forum", it is a case of logic.
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Corona Virus on 12:26 - Apr 2 with 563 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:21 - Apr 2 by Thebus

As a scientist your views are way out of line of other scientists like Neil Ferguson.


Explain-as I think they have always been pretty close in terms of epidemiology?
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Corona Virus on 12:30 - Apr 2 with 548 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:22 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad

I did not "read it on a forum", it is a case of logic.


Well go read the original Didier Raoult paper on the chloroquine. It lacks controls and excluded many individuals from the trial.

That's not to say it won't help-WHO are rightly considering it, but in a proper systematic way.


Logic rarely applies to populations and behaviour which in turn influence the course of an epidemic.
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Corona Virus on 12:32 - Apr 2 with 539 viewsraynor94

Corona Virus on 11:48 - Apr 2 by Scotia

I completely agree.

One poster arguing against an obvious academic in the field because "he read it on a forum"

Thank God we have real scientists leading this battle rather than people who's scientific ability extends no further than typing something in to google.


100% agree, Afd is a danger, spreading his bull shit on here.

You give it out, you take it back it`s all part of the game

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Corona Virus on 12:35 - Apr 2 with 529 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 12:07 - Apr 2 by Professor

So I make a valid argument that malaria is not a virus (it is an apicomplexan protozoan) and get shot down by a quote from a business programmer. I am not virologist, but I have worked in infectious disease research for nearly 25 years. I set up and ran a successful MSc on Infection and Disease Control and have published more than a 100 research papers. I am not a coronavirus expert but have a good friend and colleague who is. I have other medic colleagues who are absolute leaders in treating emerging viral infections. I am reading the primary literature not some opinion on the internet.

My friend it beggars belief


That response just goes to show your hubris.
You got shot down because it does not matter whether it is a virus or not as Lupus proves, it treats symptoms, which you appear to want to ignore.

If you had taken the time to read that post you would have seen that he was quoting Medical Specialists in that field.
So you are not arguing agianst me, or him, you are arguing against other Medical Specialists who appear to know a bit more about it than you do.

Perhaps you you should go and consult with your "other colleagues" about whether Zinc in Cells slows replication of Viruses, because other experts have proved it does.
What does the primary literature say about it, perhaps you can find some quotes?
Or maybe just google it and get over 8 million hits on it.
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Corona Virus on 12:35 - Apr 2 with 530 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:21 - Apr 2 by Thebus

As a scientist your views are way out of line of other scientists like Neil Ferguson.


But you should also consider Neil Ferguson was one of the key modellers for FMD in 2001. They were not entirely accurate then. Remember all models are wrong, but some are useful, I think the Ferguson approach is useful and (as I have previously posted) I think he has saved tens of thousands of lives by changing the scientific advice accepted by government. They had then not listened to public health and epidemiology specialist, but to Cummings mates the behavioural scientist, with a view of the economy not public health.
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Corona Virus on 12:39 - Apr 2 with 518 viewsraynor94

Corona Virus on 12:07 - Apr 2 by Professor

So I make a valid argument that malaria is not a virus (it is an apicomplexan protozoan) and get shot down by a quote from a business programmer. I am not virologist, but I have worked in infectious disease research for nearly 25 years. I set up and ran a successful MSc on Infection and Disease Control and have published more than a 100 research papers. I am not a coronavirus expert but have a good friend and colleague who is. I have other medic colleagues who are absolute leaders in treating emerging viral infections. I am reading the primary literature not some opinion on the internet.

My friend it beggars belief


Superb post👏

You give it out, you take it back it`s all part of the game

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Corona Virus on 12:41 - Apr 2 with 515 viewsLeonWasGod

Corona Virus on 12:35 - Apr 2 by Professor

But you should also consider Neil Ferguson was one of the key modellers for FMD in 2001. They were not entirely accurate then. Remember all models are wrong, but some are useful, I think the Ferguson approach is useful and (as I have previously posted) I think he has saved tens of thousands of lives by changing the scientific advice accepted by government. They had then not listened to public health and epidemiology specialist, but to Cummings mates the behavioural scientist, with a view of the economy not public health.


Quite. It's amazing how many people don't understand all of that.
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Corona Virus on 12:41 - Apr 2 with 515 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:35 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad

That response just goes to show your hubris.
You got shot down because it does not matter whether it is a virus or not as Lupus proves, it treats symptoms, which you appear to want to ignore.

If you had taken the time to read that post you would have seen that he was quoting Medical Specialists in that field.
So you are not arguing agianst me, or him, you are arguing against other Medical Specialists who appear to know a bit more about it than you do.

Perhaps you you should go and consult with your "other colleagues" about whether Zinc in Cells slows replication of Viruses, because other experts have proved it does.
What does the primary literature say about it, perhaps you can find some quotes?
Or maybe just google it and get over 8 million hits on it.


It's more important to prevent infection or treat infection than control symptoms at a population level. Lupus (which I worked on many years ago) is an autoimmune disease and not, we beleive, associated with infection. As I have said it may help, but the evidence is patchy and the opinion I am seeing is that anti-virals and passive transfer of immune sera/plasma may be more effective.

Perhaps it is part hubris, and I readily admit I am not a virologist, but I can read and assess primary literature rather than a secondary source.
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Corona Virus on 12:46 - Apr 2 with 501 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 12:30 - Apr 2 by Professor

Well go read the original Didier Raoult paper on the chloroquine. It lacks controls and excluded many individuals from the trial.

That's not to say it won't help-WHO are rightly considering it, but in a proper systematic way.


Logic rarely applies to populations and behaviour which in turn influence the course of an epidemic.


Didier Raoult is trying to save lives under massive pressure with a well known medicine, suggested by the Koreans and Chinese, not run a full clinical trial.
By the time proper clinical trials have been run, ie sometime after May there will be thousands more dead all over Europe who may not need to be.
You also seem to be totally ignoring the experiences in the US.
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Corona Virus on 12:48 - Apr 2 with 495 viewsScotia

Corona Virus on 12:32 - Apr 2 by raynor94

100% agree, Afd is a danger, spreading his bull shit on here.


I imagine he spends a lot of time "in the land of the blind where the one eyed man is king" with him being the one eyed man. Unfortunaltely this "general" forum is not the land of the blind, and people some can see straight through what he says in seconds without needing to resort to google or other peoples forum posts.

I must say quoting a forum post by a business analyst to justify an approach to a lethal global pandemic is beyond naive.

Leave the science to the scientists, we've got some of the best in the world, they won't let us down.
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Corona Virus on 12:51 - Apr 2 with 487 viewsjasper_T

Corona Virus on 12:41 - Apr 2 by Professor

It's more important to prevent infection or treat infection than control symptoms at a population level. Lupus (which I worked on many years ago) is an autoimmune disease and not, we beleive, associated with infection. As I have said it may help, but the evidence is patchy and the opinion I am seeing is that anti-virals and passive transfer of immune sera/plasma may be more effective.

Perhaps it is part hubris, and I readily admit I am not a virologist, but I can read and assess primary literature rather than a secondary source.


Whoa now, can't talk about reading on here. Haven't you heard that only frauds and posers on internet forums do research? The experts just know everything automatically and should be deferred to blindly, even when loads of them are disagreeing with each other all across the globe.
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Corona Virus on 12:52 - Apr 2 with 483 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Corona Virus on 12:30 - Apr 2 by Professor

Well go read the original Didier Raoult paper on the chloroquine. It lacks controls and excluded many individuals from the trial.

That's not to say it won't help-WHO are rightly considering it, but in a proper systematic way.


Logic rarely applies to populations and behaviour which in turn influence the course of an epidemic.


I find your posts helpful and I like your saying about logic and behaviour, in a different business environment we always used to include sessions in our service planning that we used to call allowing for people who will do the opposite to what we anticipate. These were always very valuable in getting to a delivery model that worked in practice.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack

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Corona Virus on 12:53 - Apr 2 with 480 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 12:41 - Apr 2 by Professor

It's more important to prevent infection or treat infection than control symptoms at a population level. Lupus (which I worked on many years ago) is an autoimmune disease and not, we beleive, associated with infection. As I have said it may help, but the evidence is patchy and the opinion I am seeing is that anti-virals and passive transfer of immune sera/plasma may be more effective.

Perhaps it is part hubris, and I readily admit I am not a virologist, but I can read and assess primary literature rather than a secondary source.


So, so like I suggested why not go and read about it before critising me for mentioning it.
It has been used to help with Dengue fever, Hepititus, HIV etc.
Anything that helps the Patient's symptoms or slows the rate of infection spreading in the body has to be a good thing.
I totally agree Immune Plasma, which has also been tried is probably even better, but it is in short supply.
Quninine based medicines are available and cheap.
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Corona Virus on 12:54 - Apr 2 with 481 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:46 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad

Didier Raoult is trying to save lives under massive pressure with a well known medicine, suggested by the Koreans and Chinese, not run a full clinical trial.
By the time proper clinical trials have been run, ie sometime after May there will be thousands more dead all over Europe who may not need to be.
You also seem to be totally ignoring the experiences in the US.


And the Chinese evidence is what WHO are working on. Raoult has a reputation for 'selective use' of data. There is a suggestion that his paper, in a journal which he is editor-in-chief, is misleading at best.

Remember the first principle is do no harm.
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Corona Virus on 12:59 - Apr 2 with 457 viewsThebus

Corona Virus on 12:35 - Apr 2 by Professor

But you should also consider Neil Ferguson was one of the key modellers for FMD in 2001. They were not entirely accurate then. Remember all models are wrong, but some are useful, I think the Ferguson approach is useful and (as I have previously posted) I think he has saved tens of thousands of lives by changing the scientific advice accepted by government. They had then not listened to public health and epidemiology specialist, but to Cummings mates the behavioural scientist, with a view of the economy not public health.


So you stand by what you said in regards to the 2/3 of deaths living 5 to 10 years longer had they not developed Coronavirus ?
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Corona Virus on 13:02 - Apr 2 with 454 viewsScotia

I just had a look at the link that A Fans Dad put up. I copied this from it:-

A few drugs that act to let zink into the cell, where it can block the virus replication, include Chloroquine, an old anti-malarial.

I hope it works I really do. But I would suggest that whoever wrote it learns to spell Zinc if he is going to advocate it's life saving potential.
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Corona Virus on 13:09 - Apr 2 with 441 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 12:30 - Apr 2 by Professor

Well go read the original Didier Raoult paper on the chloroquine. It lacks controls and excluded many individuals from the trial.

That's not to say it won't help-WHO are rightly considering it, but in a proper systematic way.


Logic rarely applies to populations and behaviour which in turn influence the course of an epidemic.


When you say excluded many individuals from the trial does that mean he left out the patients whose results didn't match what he was arguing for?

The bit about controls, I am nowhere near an expert but I have always believed you have to have the proper controls to validate results, without controls the results are ambiguous, is that right?

AFD says that Raoult is trying to save lives but taking short cuts in these things, in my limited knowledge, could cost more lives. We need treatments that save as many as possible, not quick fixes that may cost lives needlesslybecause they were rushed. Something lacking controls, it seems to me is taking a shortcut.

Just my poorly informed opinion.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Corona Virus on 13:21 - Apr 2 with 413 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:59 - Apr 2 by Thebus

So you stand by what you said in regards to the 2/3 of deaths living 5 to 10 years longer had they not developed Coronavirus ?


I believe I said that many could have lived 5-10 years with their conditions, far from all. I suspect a good proportion would have died within 6 months, but others lived much longer. Equally I think that was an 'off the cuff' remark intended to show in most cases it is not fatal.
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Corona Virus on 13:42 - Apr 2 with 673 viewsCatullus

Jack Bowden, 99 years young and a Covid 19 survivor, well done NHS Bolton and well fought Mr Bowden

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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