| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 437346 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 23:33 - Apr 13 with 2741 views | airedale |
| Corona Virus on 22:21 - Apr 13 by Gwyn737 |
One for Prof if you don’t mind. When the easing of the lockdown comes, do you think that opening schools will be one of the first actions?
I can’t wait to get the kids back in, but I’m concerned if there still would need to some social distancing. It would be difficult in secondary school but I’ve got 60 kids aged 5 and under - god knows how I’d do it! |
God only knows how you managed to get 60 kids aged 5 or less Billy. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 23:34 - Apr 13 with 2738 views | airedale |
Mr B Goat. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 00:24 - Apr 14 with 2706 views | Jack123 |
| Corona Virus on 22:21 - Apr 13 by Gwyn737 |
One for Prof if you don’t mind. When the easing of the lockdown comes, do you think that opening schools will be one of the first actions?
I can’t wait to get the kids back in, but I’m concerned if there still would need to some social distancing. It would be difficult in secondary school but I’ve got 60 kids aged 5 and under - god knows how I’d do it! |
One thing I hope is when the easing of restrictions comes for the uk, Wales are most certainly locked down at least a month or so more.. Otherwise i fear our figures will go very high, like all the stats with the highest figures are coming from England, and last time i looked mainly London and Midlands, if there was a relaxation of lock down, I do hope that it's only for England, and Wales keep the same strict lock down.
Not going to end very good, if they travel down here for holidays in the summer.
Edit. Sorry should not have quoted you. [Post edited 14 Apr 2020 1:01]
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| Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 with 2665 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 23:16 - Apr 13 by Banosswan |
Interesting arguments here from obvious academics, who (as they should) want peer reviewed, evidential based answers.
The reality is, at the moment, people on the front line are reacting to evolving situations, with individual patients and making little adjustments as and when we can.
Decisions are being made by specialists, using their best judgement, at an unprecedented time, often outside their particular specialism.
Listen to the government, stop pointing fingers, the time for that will come eventually. |
 I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.
On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"? |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 09:32 - Apr 14 with 2455 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 by DJack |
I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.
On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"? |
Well I reckon you are the first person to use ‘Bayesian ‘ on this forum. Waiting for a use of Markov
Monte Carlo modelling next.
Of course it’s aerosols and droplets that are the primary route. That’s why social distancing is key.
The vast majority of respiratory viruses spread that way.
I think the chloroquine was a case of opinion and self-interest above evidence- hence my rather damning posts. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 12:39 - Apr 14 with 2330 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 09:32 - Apr 14 by Professor |
Well I reckon you are the first person to use ‘Bayesian ‘ on this forum. Waiting for a use of Markov
Monte Carlo modelling next.
Of course it’s aerosols and droplets that are the primary route. That’s why social distancing is key.
The vast majority of respiratory viruses spread that way.
I think the chloroquine was a case of opinion and self-interest above evidence- hence my rather damning posts. |
Prof
Given
In highly infectious diseases such as that caused by the measles virus, aerosol transmission and their airborne nature is accepted.
WHO accept that SARS-CoV-2 is infectious in aerosol creating procedures
I think? you previously advised of the potential to create aerosols by washing fruit
Is it not the case that coughs can create aerosols? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:08 - Apr 14 with 2283 views | monmouth |
I think the internet has shown that we are all in the company of an excessive overload of total aerosols. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:28 - Apr 14 with 2250 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 13:08 - Apr 14 by monmouth |
I think the internet has shown that we are all in the company of an excessive overload of total aerosols. |
Excellent has that been peer reviewed
p.s. do you still think me naive believing Boris was not on a respirator
(my logic was they could not risk lying about that as it would have been exposed)
Perhaps Trump got Disney to provide an animatronic facsimile of Boris for his latest statement ;) | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 13:54 - Apr 14 with 2218 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 12:39 - Apr 14 by chad |
Prof
Given
In highly infectious diseases such as that caused by the measles virus, aerosol transmission and their airborne nature is accepted.
WHO accept that SARS-CoV-2 is infectious in aerosol creating procedures
I think? you previously advised of the potential to create aerosols by washing fruit
Is it not the case that coughs can create aerosols? |
Of course-the old coughs and sneezes spread diseases. This us where I am sure the majority of cases originate, and why the closure of pubs etc was a bit late
With non-peeled fruit or veg to be eaten raw I would always wash-too many potential food borne pathogens not to -worth bearing in mind Salmonella kills about 150,000 people around the world annually (often as co-morbidity/infection with HIV and Malaria in Africa). I did say washing food to be cooked to packaging was an aerosol risk when extremely unlikely to have any SARS-CoV2 there in the first place. Raw meat should never be washed. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:48 - Apr 14 with 2149 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 13:56 - Apr 14 by A_Fans_Dad |
" I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review."
I suggest that you google "Science Peer Review Crisis".
Perhaps you won't have quite so much faith afterwards, just let me know if you want a link to any of the 88,000,000 hits that come up.
Of course most of the critisism is by "experts". [Post edited 14 Apr 2020 13:57]
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Peer Review is far from perfect and there are an increasing number of people wanting to head for post-publication peer review to the more iterative process used by Frontiers journals. It is, however, perhaps still the fairest and best method available. I am yet to be convinced by a better way to decide grant funding or publication. I have been a member of grant panels and and editor on several journals -which are unpaid or receive minimal payment to cover expenses. I think the Didier Raoult situation show why there is a filter or control needed. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:31 - Apr 14 with 2105 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 14:48 - Apr 14 by Professor |
Peer Review is far from perfect and there are an increasing number of people wanting to head for post-publication peer review to the more iterative process used by Frontiers journals. It is, however, perhaps still the fairest and best method available. I am yet to be convinced by a better way to decide grant funding or publication. I have been a member of grant panels and and editor on several journals -which are unpaid or receive minimal payment to cover expenses. I think the Didier Raoult situation show why there is a filter or control needed. |
The main problem is "Reproducibility" and it especially prevalent in the Medical Research Sciences.
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laneur/PIIS1474-4422(19)30481-8.pdf
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39054778
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/fhu-ha021020.php
I highlighted an honest Scientist on a climate post who in doing medical research had her paper published only to find that she herself could not even reproduce the earlier results.
Was it reviewed, if not how was it published?
She had the paper withdrawn. [Post edited 14 Apr 2020 15:32]
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| Corona Virus on 16:23 - Apr 14 with 2047 views | Professor |
No one knows about reproducibility unless they try to reproduce the data. The is why sample sizes and proper analysis need to be done. However, there is a degree of malpractice and data (especially image) manipulation as the drive to publish is enormous from universities and research institutes. In particular from China at the moment. A particular concern is 'paper mills'-journal articles being written to order. Look up some of the work Elizabeth Blk is doing in this area.
This is why that Raoult paper is very dodgy-drive for primacy leading to cut corners and poor analysis | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:32 - Apr 14 with 1894 views | PentyrchJack |
You have to feel for this nurse who came back from retirement to help the NHS and died from. COVID 19, possible due to inadequate PPE. He's just the tip of the iceberg. I wonder what our First Minister has to say about this then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52272369 |  |
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| Corona Virus on 22:55 - Apr 14 with 1762 views | Banosswan |
| Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 by DJack |
I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.
On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"? |
To be honest, when I had an email from (can't remember specifically at this time), in university hospitals Birmingham, saying nebulisation isn't aerosol producing, I may have lost the will to live. |  |
| Ever since my son was... never conceived, because I've never had consensual sex without money involved... I've always kind of looked at you as... a thing, that I could live next to... in accordance with state laws. | | Poll: | How do you like your steak? |
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| Corona Virus on 00:40 - Apr 15 with 1694 views | airedale |
| Corona Virus on 22:55 - Apr 14 by Banosswan |
To be honest, when I had an email from (can't remember specifically at this time), in university hospitals Birmingham, saying nebulisation isn't aerosol producing, I may have lost the will to live. |
Pardon? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:50 - Apr 15 with 1453 views | A_Fans_Dad |
That is a bit of good news, I can't read the article as it doesn't like my Ad blocker.
Does it say how long they were in critical care? [Post edited 15 Apr 2020 10:50]
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| Corona Virus on 11:11 - Apr 15 with 1418 views | CountyJim |
| Corona Virus on 10:50 - Apr 15 by A_Fans_Dad |
That is a bit of good news, I can't read the article as it doesn't like my Ad blocker.
Does it say how long they were in critical care? [Post edited 15 Apr 2020 10:50]
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It just says since outbreak started they been ventilated |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 11:13 - Apr 15 with 1416 views | BytholWyn |
I stand to be corrected, but I assume that Dr David Hepburn is the same consultant that features heavily on the BBC Wales excellent documentary series that was filmed in the Royal Gwent's ICU unit last summer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m000h64s/critical-inside-intensive-care
All the consultants come across so well (but especially Dr Hepburn) not least with their professional and non-judgemental attitude towards the alcoholics and drug addicts that make up such a high proportion of the ICU unit's intake. Very, very impressive. A poignant watch given the challenges they've faced in recent weeks. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 11:16 - Apr 15 with 1404 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
Rather than pulling WHO Funding Trump should increase it on the basis that there should be a full independent review of what happened in China. If we don't know what caused this it is difficult to stop it happening again. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 11:17 - Apr 15 with 1402 views | CountyJim |
| Corona Virus on 11:13 - Apr 15 by BytholWyn |
I stand to be corrected, but I assume that Dr David Hepburn is the same consultant that features heavily on the BBC Wales excellent documentary series that was filmed in the Royal Gwent's ICU unit last summer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m000h64s/critical-inside-intensive-care
All the consultants come across so well (but especially Dr Hepburn) not least with their professional and non-judgemental attitude towards the alcoholics and drug addicts that make up such a high proportion of the ICU unit's intake. Very, very impressive. A poignant watch given the challenges they've faced in recent weeks. |
I'm also on there 3 times pushing beds about  | | | |
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