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Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 93845 viewsSgorioFruit

Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy.

My methods are not favoured by some but by god i speak the truth.
Poll: What Happened Today???

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Corona Virus on 12:05 - Mar 17 with 515 viewslondonlisa2001

Corona Virus on 11:49 - Mar 17 by Professor

Neil Ferguson is an excellent epidemiologist and was excellent on R4. The Imperial/LSHTM report is a great piece of science and clearly communicated. I do feel he is being somewhat diplomatic. The consensus (from scientific Twitter) is we should have done this last week or sooner, which I agree with. We are, as he said, ahead of the game compared to Spain and Italy and may yet need the measures seen in France. Of course, we should also be testing at the level of Germany-they are picking up mild and asymptomatic positives and have what looks like a much more realistic mortality rate of below 1%. There is capacity and volunteers to deliver this through academic labs. I have most of the kit needed and could take on hundreds of samples (we have PCR robot) and more if I had automated RNA extraction (ran out of money) each day-it would be a repurpose as we use it for gene expression not pathogen detection. We are going to be on shutdown until autumn anyway by the looks of it.

The change has probably saved 200,000 lives. We will get tens of thousands dying still though.


Niall Ferguson is in charge of the team that provided numbers based on incorrect assumptions in the first place though? At least, not incorrect as such, but have changed because of different data coming out of Italy.

I have read some reports today that suggest that the UK measures are correct timing for London and may in fact, still be a week early for the rest of the country for maximum effect.
They can’t win on that as it has to be done at the same time I would imagine, albeit Italy and Spain tried to separate different parts of the country.

What is clear from the report (bearing in mind that other reports are being published - this is only one of the models that have been used throughout) is that each of these measures has an effect, cumulatively they have a huge effect, but the time needed is almost unfathomable.

The testing point is an interesting one. I understood from the CMO that we are going to be focusing on antibody testing as no one is accurately picking up asymptomatic numbers apart from Korea (and even there its only a % of the population being tested) And that they feel that will be more useful?

Not sure on the tens of thousands? The report gives numbers well below that ?

The real disgrace for me, is not the timing (as who knows) but the lack of equipment. The ventilators issue should have been dealt with 6 weeks ago, not now.

And the biggest concern is the timescale - 18 months is just unfeasible,
[Post edited 17 Mar 12:09]
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Corona Virus on 12:06 - Mar 17 with 511 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:02 - Mar 17 by JACKMANANDBOY

The possibility of anti-body test very soon really helps the understanding the population which would help all countries.


That would now be helpful, as are often easier to perform. Was not much use until now, but at least allows us to assess those exposed and clear
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Corona Virus on 12:06 - Mar 17 with 511 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 11:57 - Mar 17 by Professor

Most experts have been disagreeing with the policy-immunologists, medics, modellers and virologists and there has been a large amount of belittling by Trump and Boris cronies. The 'herd immunity' plan was very much at the edge of science and very risky-this is what I said here several times. I am not Lisa's acolyte and we have disagreed over this, but this is just name calling nonsense. She certainly does not need me defending her, but this is just a nasty, sly dig.


Fairs fair though Prof she does it all the time, she can't expect to be nasty and belittling for no good reason and not eventually have it back, she is the instigator and this board would be better off if she desisted from such behavior.
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Corona Virus on 12:11 - Mar 17 with 489 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:02 - Mar 17 by JACKMANANDBOY

The possibility of anti-body test very soon really helps the understanding the population which would help all countries.


You asked about what the Chinese did the other day about families JACKMANANDBOY well they took any infected/possibly infected person out of the family unit, proper isolation if you like.
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Corona Virus on 12:11 - Mar 17 with 488 viewslondonlisa2001

Corona Virus on 11:57 - Mar 17 by Professor

Most experts have been disagreeing with the policy-immunologists, medics, modellers and virologists and there has been a large amount of belittling by Trump and Boris cronies. The 'herd immunity' plan was very much at the edge of science and very risky-this is what I said here several times. I am not Lisa's acolyte and we have disagreed over this, but this is just name calling nonsense. She certainly does not need me defending her, but this is just a nasty, sly dig.


I don’t think we have disagreed actually. As I’ve said a few times, I was very much in the keep everyone inside and wait for a cure / vaccine camp.

All I’ve tried to do is cut through some of the complete nonsense on here that’s being spouted based on social media bots stirring it up. And trolls on here stirring it up for a laugh.
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Corona Virus on 12:14 - Mar 17 with 474 viewslondonlisa2001

Corona Virus on 12:06 - Mar 17 by ladyjack

Fairs fair though Prof she does it all the time, she can't expect to be nasty and belittling for no good reason and not eventually have it back, she is the instigator and this board would be better off if she desisted from such behavior.


You just don’t like the fact that I’ve called you out as a troll. And have done for months and months. Not just over this.

You are spreading disinformation and fear for the sake of getting a kick out of it. It’s pathetic.
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Corona Virus on 12:16 - Mar 17 with 465 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 12:11 - Mar 17 by londonlisa2001

I don’t think we have disagreed actually. As I’ve said a few times, I was very much in the keep everyone inside and wait for a cure / vaccine camp.

All I’ve tried to do is cut through some of the complete nonsense on here that’s being spouted based on social media bots stirring it up. And trolls on here stirring it up for a laugh.


I think the higher risk groups should have told to isolate straight away, as soon as panic buying started the government should have issued strict instructions and even told the police to have a presence in supermarkets, clamp down on it before it spread. Hindsight is brilliant though.
Things like this, they bring out the best and the worst possible behaviour.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Corona Virus on 12:17 - Mar 17 with 461 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 11:35 - Mar 17 by londonlisa2001

Imperial college today have said they think he’s right on the timing and they’ve been providing the information and changing it constantly.

Do you disagree with their view?


Yes, I disagree, his lack of actions and his current actions have nothing to do with timing.
He did not stop people from infected areas entering the country without testing and proper isolation.
He did not advocate mass testing, masks, gloves, hand washing and social distancing and still hasn't advocated masks. He has not even advocated washing your face if you don't wear a mask, just leave the virus all over it when someone has coughed and sneezed all over you.
He and they could not even get the facts straight about how infectous it is, how long isolation should be and how long people have it for.
He has not shut Universities, which do not have the same problems as schools. Swansea Uni now has a confirmed case and are still not shutting down, just stopping face to face teaching.

The period between the sharp rise in cases in February when Wuhan got out of control was a period of grace where forward planning should have taken place.
Ordering more IC equipment, training staff on it's use, ordering more oxygen, ordering decontamination units, extra beds, masks, gowns gloves etc etc.
He has only just realised the necessity for some of this since the rest of the world crashed his plan to just let the public become infected at a controlled rate.
As if that could possibly work without mass testing to see how far it had spread.
It sounds like the plan came from the Imperial college as they are providing the information, I just love your faith in experts.

Back him up as much as you like, the rest of the world and those with the very best performances have been doing it differently from day one and he is now playing catch up when it is too late to get ahead of the game.
This country, France, Spain & Italy learnt nothing from the Wuhan experience and are all playing catch up.
It is very clear that the world was not prepared for a more infectous and dangerous virus, god help is if an even more dangerous one appears.
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Corona Virus on 12:19 - Mar 17 with 459 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:14 - Mar 17 by londonlisa2001

You just don’t like the fact that I’ve called you out as a troll. And have done for months and months. Not just over this.

You are spreading disinformation and fear for the sake of getting a kick out of it. It’s pathetic.


You are the troll, a nasty piece of work who does not like been called out on the rubbish you spout.
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Corona Virus on 12:19 - Mar 17 with 458 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:05 - Mar 17 by londonlisa2001

Niall Ferguson is in charge of the team that provided numbers based on incorrect assumptions in the first place though? At least, not incorrect as such, but have changed because of different data coming out of Italy.

I have read some reports today that suggest that the UK measures are correct timing for London and may in fact, still be a week early for the rest of the country for maximum effect.
They can’t win on that as it has to be done at the same time I would imagine, albeit Italy and Spain tried to separate different parts of the country.

What is clear from the report (bearing in mind that other reports are being published - this is only one of the models that have been used throughout) is that each of these measures has an effect, cumulatively they have a huge effect, but the time needed is almost unfathomable.

The testing point is an interesting one. I understood from the CMO that we are going to be focusing on antibody testing as no one is accurately picking up asymptomatic numbers apart from Korea (and even there its only a % of the population being tested) And that they feel that will be more useful?

Not sure on the tens of thousands? The report gives numbers well below that ?

The real disgrace for me, is not the timing (as who knows) but the lack of equipment. The ventilators issue should have been dealt with 6 weeks ago, not now.

And the biggest concern is the timescale - 18 months is just unfeasible,
[Post edited 17 Mar 12:09]


I would expect there to be 10-40,000 deaths to be honest. I think earlier action would perhaps have stopped several thousand cases and some mortality. There is a no-win to all of this, but what we could have learned from how Defra handles outbreaks of things like avian influenza, is that early action has a very positive impact. This is always an issue with medics, though, who always know best and I am not that surprised that there has been little learned from very successful veterinary vaccines for coronaviruses.

Now I have to do some work!
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Corona Virus on 12:20 - Mar 17 with 455 viewslondonlisa2001

Corona Virus on 12:16 - Mar 17 by Catullus

I think the higher risk groups should have told to isolate straight away, as soon as panic buying started the government should have issued strict instructions and even told the police to have a presence in supermarkets, clamp down on it before it spread. Hindsight is brilliant though.
Things like this, they bring out the best and the worst possible behaviour.


For the higher risk groups, advocating isolation from a few weeks ago would be probably have been sensible. Although isolating one group may not work, I’ve no idea, without there being some measure of isolation in the whole community.

On the supermarket thing I completely agree. However, I think the shops themselves have some responsibility. They are all able to bring in measures re panic buying- allowing only one delivery per household per fortnight for example, and sharing info to stop multiple deliveries from different providers may help. That’s easy for them to do.
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Corona Virus on 12:22 - Mar 17 with 444 viewslondonlisa2001

Corona Virus on 12:17 - Mar 17 by A_Fans_Dad

Yes, I disagree, his lack of actions and his current actions have nothing to do with timing.
He did not stop people from infected areas entering the country without testing and proper isolation.
He did not advocate mass testing, masks, gloves, hand washing and social distancing and still hasn't advocated masks. He has not even advocated washing your face if you don't wear a mask, just leave the virus all over it when someone has coughed and sneezed all over you.
He and they could not even get the facts straight about how infectous it is, how long isolation should be and how long people have it for.
He has not shut Universities, which do not have the same problems as schools. Swansea Uni now has a confirmed case and are still not shutting down, just stopping face to face teaching.

The period between the sharp rise in cases in February when Wuhan got out of control was a period of grace where forward planning should have taken place.
Ordering more IC equipment, training staff on it's use, ordering more oxygen, ordering decontamination units, extra beds, masks, gowns gloves etc etc.
He has only just realised the necessity for some of this since the rest of the world crashed his plan to just let the public become infected at a controlled rate.
As if that could possibly work without mass testing to see how far it had spread.
It sounds like the plan came from the Imperial college as they are providing the information, I just love your faith in experts.

Back him up as much as you like, the rest of the world and those with the very best performances have been doing it differently from day one and he is now playing catch up when it is too late to get ahead of the game.
This country, France, Spain & Italy learnt nothing from the Wuhan experience and are all playing catch up.
It is very clear that the world was not prepared for a more infectous and dangerous virus, god help is if an even more dangerous one appears.


I haven’t backed him up.

Bloody hell.

Why not read what is said rather than why you think is said.

I’ve said repeatedly I’d isolate people until there’s a cure or vaccine.

I’m just refusing to listen to (a) trolls and (b) people who think they have more expertise than experts because they’ve looked on the Internet.
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Corona Virus on 12:26 - Mar 17 with 434 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:17 - Mar 17 by A_Fans_Dad

Yes, I disagree, his lack of actions and his current actions have nothing to do with timing.
He did not stop people from infected areas entering the country without testing and proper isolation.
He did not advocate mass testing, masks, gloves, hand washing and social distancing and still hasn't advocated masks. He has not even advocated washing your face if you don't wear a mask, just leave the virus all over it when someone has coughed and sneezed all over you.
He and they could not even get the facts straight about how infectous it is, how long isolation should be and how long people have it for.
He has not shut Universities, which do not have the same problems as schools. Swansea Uni now has a confirmed case and are still not shutting down, just stopping face to face teaching.

The period between the sharp rise in cases in February when Wuhan got out of control was a period of grace where forward planning should have taken place.
Ordering more IC equipment, training staff on it's use, ordering more oxygen, ordering decontamination units, extra beds, masks, gowns gloves etc etc.
He has only just realised the necessity for some of this since the rest of the world crashed his plan to just let the public become infected at a controlled rate.
As if that could possibly work without mass testing to see how far it had spread.
It sounds like the plan came from the Imperial college as they are providing the information, I just love your faith in experts.

Back him up as much as you like, the rest of the world and those with the very best performances have been doing it differently from day one and he is now playing catch up when it is too late to get ahead of the game.
This country, France, Spain & Italy learnt nothing from the Wuhan experience and are all playing catch up.
It is very clear that the world was not prepared for a more infectous and dangerous virus, god help is if an even more dangerous one appears.


Excellent post.
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Corona Virus on 12:28 - Mar 17 with 429 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:16 - Mar 17 by Catullus

I think the higher risk groups should have told to isolate straight away, as soon as panic buying started the government should have issued strict instructions and even told the police to have a presence in supermarkets, clamp down on it before it spread. Hindsight is brilliant though.
Things like this, they bring out the best and the worst possible behaviour.


Why did we not do what the Chinese did ?

What did you think of their plan ?
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Corona Virus on 12:33 - Mar 17 with 412 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Corona Virus on 12:11 - Mar 17 by ladyjack

You asked about what the Chinese did the other day about families JACKMANANDBOY well they took any infected/possibly infected person out of the family unit, proper isolation if you like.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gj5f/our-world-wuhan-life-under-lockdo

This evidence suggests otherwise.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack

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Corona Virus on 12:37 - Mar 17 with 402 viewsA_Fans_Dad

I assume Lisa means me when she speaks of Trolls spreading disinfromation and fear.
Lisa please point out where I have been wrong.
I do not spout mass media nonsense, I am not on twitter, facebook or any other of those social sites.
I frequent forums that find and discuss Science and Scientific news, which includes Medicine.
They have gathered far more facts and data than our Imperial college, Boris's experts and therefore Boris appear to have.
They know far more about bacteria & viruses than your average person.
They reasearch Scientific studies on prevention, treatment and cures.
Boris still hasn't even mention effective treatment to try and put peple's minds at rest, whereas other countries, not only do so, they implement them.
I am not trying to scare, I am trying to educate and point out where Boris & co appear to be wrong, whether you believe me or not does not matter to me. But your continuous rubbishing of what other commentors find is not helping anyone.
[Post edited 17 Mar 14:49]
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Corona Virus on 12:39 - Mar 17 with 396 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 12:28 - Mar 17 by ladyjack

Why did we not do what the Chinese did ?

What did you think of their plan ?


I think the Chinese should have told us as soon as they knew and not silenced people who tried to get the news out. If they had we may have prevented the global spread and saved potentially hundreds of thousands of lives.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Corona Virus on 12:42 - Mar 17 with 388 viewslondonlisa2001

Corona Virus on 12:37 - Mar 17 by A_Fans_Dad

I assume Lisa means me when she speaks of Trolls spreading disinfromation and fear.
Lisa please point out where I have been wrong.
I do not spout mass media nonsense, I am not on twitter, facebook or any other of those social sites.
I frequent forums that find and discuss Science and Scientific news, which includes Medicine.
They have gathered far more facts and data than our Imperial college, Boris's experts and therefore Boris appear to have.
They know far more about bacteria & viruses than your average person.
They reasearch Scientific studies on prevention, treatment and cures.
Boris still hasn't even mention effective treatment to try and put peple's minds at rest, whereas other countries, not only do so, they implement them.
I am not trying to scare, I am trying to educate and point out where Boris & co appear to be wrong, whether you believe me or not does not matter to me. But your continuous rubbishing of what other commentors find is not helping anyone.
[Post edited 17 Mar 14:49]


I wasn’t talking about you.

You fall into the second camp of people that think they know more than experts. You have literally just said you are on forums that know more than Imperial College. And that the NHS are not using treatments that you know about.

I’m out. You and Trampie talk to each other. The rest of us can have sensible conversations.
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Corona Virus on 12:42 - Mar 17 with 388 viewsploppy

Instead of carrying on this "he said", "she said" nonsense, and typing endless responses to posts, why don't you do yourself a favour (as I said in another thread) and watch Daily Politics - it's on now, BBC2. You've probably already missed a very sensible discussion of the latest modelling and an explanation of the increased restrictions by Professor Sian Griffiths.

Edit: Sorry, that was meant for @A_Fans_Dad and @ladyjack.
[Post edited 17 Mar 12:44]
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Corona Virus on 12:43 - Mar 17 with 382 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:39 - Mar 17 by Catullus

I think the Chinese should have told us as soon as they knew and not silenced people who tried to get the news out. If they had we may have prevented the global spread and saved potentially hundreds of thousands of lives.


They were praised for being open about it, once the virus was out of the box how do you think they handled it ?
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Corona Virus on 12:44 - Mar 17 with 372 viewsploppy

Corona Virus on 12:43 - Mar 17 by ladyjack

They were praised for being open about it, once the virus was out of the box how do you think they handled it ?


Open? What about the doctor they tried to silence?
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Corona Virus on 12:46 - Mar 17 with 368 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:33 - Mar 17 by JACKMANANDBOY

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gj5f/our-world-wuhan-life-under-lockdo

This evidence suggests otherwise.


What that the Chinese did not isolate, take people away to be tested and if positive then isolated them in specialist clincs, dormitories, converted gyms etc ?
I have little charge on my phone to view the program.
[Post edited 17 Mar 12:48]
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Corona Virus on 12:57 - Mar 17 with 340 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 12:44 - Mar 17 by ploppy

Open? What about the doctor they tried to silence?


Prof Sian Griffiths spoke about their openness, it's on Facebook.
[Post edited 17 Mar 12:59]
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Corona Virus on 13:06 - Mar 17 with 315 viewsploppy

Corona Virus on 12:57 - Mar 17 by ladyjack

Prof Sian Griffiths spoke about their openness, it's on Facebook.
[Post edited 17 Mar 12:59]


She was just on Daily Politics talking about the new restrictions and the result of new modelling (by Neil Ferguson) using new data from China and Italy. Did you listen?
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Corona Virus on 13:22 - Mar 17 with 290 viewsCountyJim

Don't know if anyone has been listening to radio 2 they where on about a doctor in his 90s who basically said back in his day they wouldn't have a clue what the virus was until a couple years later they would have just written it off as a bad year for flu
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