Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread
Have the government failed? 08:00 - Apr 27 with 23954 viewsRiscaJack

Can the more educated posters on this forum give me some opinions on this?

For me it looks like a complete disgrace from the start, no leadership, promises not kept, flights still coming into country from badly hit parts of world, using the excuse of "scientific advice" for not postponing the likes of Cheltenham Festival, Liverpool v Madrid, music gigs. We watched what was happening in Italy, I just can't find any excuses for them.

JENKINS OUT

2
Have the government failed? on 16:57 - May 1 with 400 viewsCooperman

Have the government failed? on 13:16 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

It’s not according to some on here, it’s according to basic maths. But we wouldn’t HAVE more cases, we would KNOW about more cases. If we didn’t test anyone we’d have no cases.

It’s really not difficult to understand, one would think.


Flippin 'eck! We were having the same discussion last week, were we not?

Can you point me in the direction of the site that posts the 'meaningful' graphs that show the % rate, tests, confirmed cases?

Poll: Your confectionery tub of choice

0
Have the government failed? on 16:59 - May 1 with 393 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 15:52 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

You continue to miss the point.

We know that the real number of cases in this country are many multiples of the number recorded. We have been told that since the start. And we have the same (ish) mortality rate as everywhere else, one would assume.

So it follows that if we have more deaths than Germany (for example) then we have more cases than Germany. Testing simply allows us to see detail. So rather than knowing that 100,000 have the virus, we know which 100,000 have the virus.

As I’ve said repeatedly, what is increasingly obvious, is the virus was widespread in the UK before we knew it was widespread in the UK. Same situation in New York. This is unsurprising given London and New York are two of the most connected cities in the world. Data is supporting that, as we now know that when lockdown happened, where it was thought that 300 plus people had died, the reality (which was unknown) is that over 800 people had died. When the first UK death was reported, we’d already had 5 by then.

The reason much if this has happened, is because the virus was here before anyone knew about it.

The same doesn’t apply to New Zealand, or the Czech Republic, or wherever, as they are simply not connected in anything like the same way. Other European countries badly affected, like Belgium as an example - hugely internationally connected due to EU / NATO etc.


"So it follows that if we have more deaths than Germany (for example) then we have more cases than Germany."

Simply not true, it depends on how you treat the patients.
If you intercede early because you have thousands of beds to spare they stand a better chance of survival.
When you tell Doctors, A&E, 111 and 999 to tell people ringing them with symptoms to stay at home and self isolate until they get very ill, ie pneumonia or congested lungs or blood clots etc have set in you have just reduced their chances by a great deal.
So you can easily end up with more deaths with less cases.
You then have to factor in the Virulence of the particular strain of COVID-19 the patient is infected with.
Next you have the overall fitness of the patients, how good their immune system is, hence the high mortality rates for BAME patients and old people.
We also do not know what treatment German hospitals use compared to ours.
0
Have the government failed? on 17:03 - May 1 with 382 viewsItchySphincter

Have the government failed? on 16:42 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

There have been many reports in the past few days that contrary to what people may have thought (myself included), he was the person who most pushed for a lockdown as early as possible.

In the long run, every country in the world must have herd immunity as their goal as it’s the only possible outcome.

I think we’ll be locked up for a bit yet - more will ignore that of course, but they’re concerned about the uptick in Germany.


I think, in essence, we're on the same page with regards to where we're heading.

As far as the lockdown goes I think we're at the stage where people are starting to break out - I don't mean the odd person sitting on a park bench, people seem to have either become complacent or maybe belligerent about following the guidelines. I live on a quiet residential road so don't see many people besides the usual posties, dog walkers and neighbours either side, but I had to venture out about lunchtime today with the wife's car as it's been siting on the drive for weeks and one of the tyres needed pumping up and the amount of traffic on the road was incredible, shocking given the circumstances, I even saw two police fans and a police car closing a road to tend to a mobility scooter that had toppled over, presumably taking a corner too fast (had a quiet guffaw about that). Anyway, Germany is running a live televised tennis tournament next week,other countries are considering events, Greggs and McDonalds's are making noises about reopening here so the public and industry are going to force the governments direction on lockdown. People are breaking out now and it's going to multiply - the government will either have to lock down harder or issue new guidelines for easing restrictions. I'll wager 10 days to two weeks max before it's eased.
[Post edited 1 May 19:26]

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/231026/3315278/
Poll: Bovril or Marmite......

0
Have the government failed? on 17:04 - May 1 with 381 viewsItchySphincter

Have the government failed? on 16:53 - May 1 by chad

And what gave France, Italy and Spain their governments?


This is about our government Spratty. Happy to clear that up for you.

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/231026/3315278/
Poll: Bovril or Marmite......

0
Have the government failed? on 17:12 - May 1 with 367 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 16:59 - May 1 by A_Fans_Dad

"So it follows that if we have more deaths than Germany (for example) then we have more cases than Germany."

Simply not true, it depends on how you treat the patients.
If you intercede early because you have thousands of beds to spare they stand a better chance of survival.
When you tell Doctors, A&E, 111 and 999 to tell people ringing them with symptoms to stay at home and self isolate until they get very ill, ie pneumonia or congested lungs or blood clots etc have set in you have just reduced their chances by a great deal.
So you can easily end up with more deaths with less cases.
You then have to factor in the Virulence of the particular strain of COVID-19 the patient is infected with.
Next you have the overall fitness of the patients, how good their immune system is, hence the high mortality rates for BAME patients and old people.
We also do not know what treatment German hospitals use compared to ours.


“ we have the same (ish) mortality rate as everywhere else, one would assume.”

I’d preceded my comment with this. Note ish, as it will be the same ball park.

We do have thousands of beds to spare. Capacity in the NHS hasn’t been anywhere near taken up with one or two hours of exceptions right at the start.

I agree re population, strain etc. It was an example used to signify the basic relationship between cases and deaths. The more cases, the more deaths. At the end of all this, I suspect that the mortality rates across developed countries will be roughly the same.
They may vary slightly due to specifics, but not by huge amounts.
0
Have the government failed? on 17:19 - May 1 with 356 viewsBillyChong

Have the government failed? on 17:12 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

“ we have the same (ish) mortality rate as everywhere else, one would assume.”

I’d preceded my comment with this. Note ish, as it will be the same ball park.

We do have thousands of beds to spare. Capacity in the NHS hasn’t been anywhere near taken up with one or two hours of exceptions right at the start.

I agree re population, strain etc. It was an example used to signify the basic relationship between cases and deaths. The more cases, the more deaths. At the end of all this, I suspect that the mortality rates across developed countries will be roughly the same.
They may vary slightly due to specifics, but not by huge amounts.


I think we can count ourselves extremely lucky that the additional hospitals have not been needed so far, totally baffled as to how they would be staffed in addition to main hospitals.

Shouldn’t the figures across Europe be looking at excess deaths in the same way as flu is every year? Although I think this puts the UK at something like 40,000 + deaths.
1
Have the government failed? on 17:24 - May 1 with 348 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 15:52 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

You continue to miss the point.

We know that the real number of cases in this country are many multiples of the number recorded. We have been told that since the start. And we have the same (ish) mortality rate as everywhere else, one would assume.

So it follows that if we have more deaths than Germany (for example) then we have more cases than Germany. Testing simply allows us to see detail. So rather than knowing that 100,000 have the virus, we know which 100,000 have the virus.

As I’ve said repeatedly, what is increasingly obvious, is the virus was widespread in the UK before we knew it was widespread in the UK. Same situation in New York. This is unsurprising given London and New York are two of the most connected cities in the world. Data is supporting that, as we now know that when lockdown happened, where it was thought that 300 plus people had died, the reality (which was unknown) is that over 800 people had died. When the first UK death was reported, we’d already had 5 by then.

The reason much if this has happened, is because the virus was here before anyone knew about it.

The same doesn’t apply to New Zealand, or the Czech Republic, or wherever, as they are simply not connected in anything like the same way. Other European countries badly affected, like Belgium as an example - hugely internationally connected due to EU / NATO etc.


"The reason much if this has happened, is because the virus was here before anyone knew about it. "

And ask yourself why was that?
Because our governement in their "herd immunity" wisdom were not testing every person coming in to the country from anywhere, especially China that might be carrying the virus.

Let me ask you a simple question, the UK has been in lockdown and doing social spacing so why we are still getting an average of over 4000 new cases every single day?

I will also ask why is it that as we are still getting 4000 new cases per day when Germany with twice as many tests are getting less than 2000 per day?

The answer to both questions is our lockdown and social distancing are not working as well as theirs.
-1
Have the government failed? on 17:28 - May 1 with 335 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 17:12 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

“ we have the same (ish) mortality rate as everywhere else, one would assume.”

I’d preceded my comment with this. Note ish, as it will be the same ball park.

We do have thousands of beds to spare. Capacity in the NHS hasn’t been anywhere near taken up with one or two hours of exceptions right at the start.

I agree re population, strain etc. It was an example used to signify the basic relationship between cases and deaths. The more cases, the more deaths. At the end of all this, I suspect that the mortality rates across developed countries will be roughly the same.
They may vary slightly due to specifics, but not by huge amounts.


Is that deaths v cases or deaths/Million population?
Because the statistics say they are not even close for population.
-1
Login to get fewer ads


Have the government failed? on 17:40 - May 1 with 321 viewsNeath_Jack

They got their 100K tests in a day then.

I want a mate like Flashberryjacks, who wears a Barnsley jersey with "Swans are my second team" on the back.
Poll: Would you support military action against Syria on what we know so far?

1
Have the government failed? on 17:41 - May 1 with 319 viewschad

Have the government failed? on 17:04 - May 1 by ItchySphincter

This is about our government Spratty. Happy to clear that up for you.


So not about the EU then, makes me wonder why you mentioned Brexit

You do understand success and failure are often measured comparatively, compared to how others are able to achieve in similar circs,

Happy to help Sunshine
0
Have the government failed? on 17:44 - May 1 with 316 viewsNeath_Jack

Have the government failed? on 14:09 - May 1 by chad

Failure may be difficult to diagnose, before we have defined success (or at least acceptable performance in the circs).

Failure could be ever going into lockdown, if we cannot get out of it without going back to square 1

We just don’t know, unsurprisingly we can identify individual things where lessons need to be learned now. But failure as a whole needs the benefit of hindsight.


Edit: this post is based on a comment by Neath_Jack on page 2. But it is certainly worth repeating
[Post edited 1 May 17:59]


I said this on page 2 mun Chaddy.

Could have closed the thread after my post to be honest.

I want a mate like Flashberryjacks, who wears a Barnsley jersey with "Swans are my second team" on the back.
Poll: Would you support military action against Syria on what we know so far?

0
Have the government failed? on 17:45 - May 1 with 315 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 17:12 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

“ we have the same (ish) mortality rate as everywhere else, one would assume.”

I’d preceded my comment with this. Note ish, as it will be the same ball park.

We do have thousands of beds to spare. Capacity in the NHS hasn’t been anywhere near taken up with one or two hours of exceptions right at the start.

I agree re population, strain etc. It was an example used to signify the basic relationship between cases and deaths. The more cases, the more deaths. At the end of all this, I suspect that the mortality rates across developed countries will be roughly the same.
They may vary slightly due to specifics, but not by huge amounts.


"We do have thousands of beds to spare."
How you love to wriggle.
How many "spare beds" did we have at the start of the pandemic?
Germay had 28,000 ICU beds at the start of the pandemic, not JUST beds.

Why do you think they sent old people with COVID-19 to care homes and left those in care homes to die.
And told people with COVID-19 to stay at home and self isolate instead of getting them all in to hospital?

ps even now
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8274403/Whistleblower-claims-elderly-
[Post edited 1 May 17:57]
0
Have the government failed? on 17:57 - May 1 with 289 viewschad

Have the government failed? on 17:44 - May 1 by Neath_Jack

I said this on page 2 mun Chaddy.

Could have closed the thread after my post to be honest.


True, I did read it and agree with it at the time but that was a lot of wasted debate ago.

Sorry for the unintended plagiarism I will immediately edit my post
0
Have the government failed? on 17:59 - May 1 with 284 viewsNeath_Jack

Have the government failed? on 17:57 - May 1 by chad

True, I did read it and agree with it at the time but that was a lot of wasted debate ago.

Sorry for the unintended plagiarism I will immediately edit my post


Oh i do like you

I want a mate like Flashberryjacks, who wears a Barnsley jersey with "Swans are my second team" on the back.
Poll: Would you support military action against Syria on what we know so far?

1
Have the government failed? on 18:08 - May 1 with 270 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 17:19 - May 1 by BillyChong

I think we can count ourselves extremely lucky that the additional hospitals have not been needed so far, totally baffled as to how they would be staffed in addition to main hospitals.

Shouldn’t the figures across Europe be looking at excess deaths in the same way as flu is every year? Although I think this puts the UK at something like 40,000 + deaths.


On the furs5 bit, I believe the nightingale in London was / is partly reliant on the army medics plus St Johns etc but I may be mistaken.

On the second point - couldn’t agree more. Excess deaths is the only reasonable comparison as there are so many reporting differences. Also, as I’ve been banging on about for ages now, if person dies of a stroke because they’re too scared to access the hospital, in my mind that’s still a Covid death.

There was an update today of excess death % across much of Europe and New York - it’s in the New York Times I believe. The figure at the moment I’m not sure we know - that 40,000 plus figure was an FT extrapolation of data which they keep changing up and down. Every Tuesday the actual excess death totals are published, albeit 10 days or so after the event (due to registration etc).
2
Have the government failed? on 18:13 - May 1 with 258 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 16:57 - May 1 by Cooperman

Flippin 'eck! We were having the same discussion last week, were we not?

Can you point me in the direction of the site that posts the 'meaningful' graphs that show the % rate, tests, confirmed cases?


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EW8ezoMXgAAwtMw?format=jpg&name=large
0
Have the government failed? on 18:22 - May 1 with 245 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 17:24 - May 1 by A_Fans_Dad

"The reason much if this has happened, is because the virus was here before anyone knew about it. "

And ask yourself why was that?
Because our governement in their "herd immunity" wisdom were not testing every person coming in to the country from anywhere, especially China that might be carrying the virus.

Let me ask you a simple question, the UK has been in lockdown and doing social spacing so why we are still getting an average of over 4000 new cases every single day?

I will also ask why is it that as we are still getting 4000 new cases per day when Germany with twice as many tests are getting less than 2000 per day?

The answer to both questions is our lockdown and social distancing are not working as well as theirs.


“ why we are still getting an average of over 4000 new cases every single day? ”

We are testing far more people now. When we had, say, 5000 cases per day three weeks ago, we were missing 80% of cases. Now we’re missing far fewer.

We’ve had more cases than Germany. And their current testing capacity according to them is 860,000 per week. Ours is now in excess of 700,000 per week. That’s not double,

Btw - their R0 is c. 0.8 at the moment (some say higher). In London the estimate is 0.6 at the moment (slightly higher elsewhere in the UK). We are in a greater lockdown at present than Germany. But Germany have a very different population spread. Their biggest city is less than a third as big as ours.
0
Have the government failed? on 18:27 - May 1 with 237 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 17:28 - May 1 by A_Fans_Dad

Is that deaths v cases or deaths/Million population?
Because the statistics say they are not even close for population.


I did quite clearly state cases v deaths.
0
Have the government failed? on 18:29 - May 1 with 234 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 17:40 - May 1 by Neath_Jack

They got their 100K tests in a day then.


Hmm. Achieving it by sending out 30,000 test kits to Conservative party members isn’t quite what everyone had in mind.

But in all seriousness, testing over 70,000 people in a day is a huge step forward from where we were a couple of weeks ago, which is to be applauded.
0
Have the government failed? on 18:29 - May 1 with 231 viewsNortbankboy

Have the government failed? on 18:22 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

“ why we are still getting an average of over 4000 new cases every single day? ”

We are testing far more people now. When we had, say, 5000 cases per day three weeks ago, we were missing 80% of cases. Now we’re missing far fewer.

We’ve had more cases than Germany. And their current testing capacity according to them is 860,000 per week. Ours is now in excess of 700,000 per week. That’s not double,

Btw - their R0 is c. 0.8 at the moment (some say higher). In London the estimate is 0.6 at the moment (slightly higher elsewhere in the UK). We are in a greater lockdown at present than Germany. But Germany have a very different population spread. Their biggest city is less than a third as big as ours.


Feck me,this government has got some brass neck to
Announce they have tested 120 000 people!

Over 40 k of that were home test they sent out yesterday.
The people probably haven't received them yet!

It makes you think of how they are manipulating all these graphs
They are showing us.

Thank God Boris back,he wouldn't lie,would he?
2
Have the government failed? on 18:39 - May 1 with 220 viewscontroversial_jack

Have the government failed? on 18:29 - May 1 by Nortbankboy

Feck me,this government has got some brass neck to
Announce they have tested 120 000 people!

Over 40 k of that were home test they sent out yesterday.
The people probably haven't received them yet!

It makes you think of how they are manipulating all these graphs
They are showing us.

Thank God Boris back,he wouldn't lie,would he?


The way tests are counted was changed by the government this week, according to the journal, so that tests sent to people’s homes, but not yet returned for processing, are included in the figures.

[Post edited 1 May 18:40]
1
Have the government failed? on 18:40 - May 1 with 219 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 17:45 - May 1 by A_Fans_Dad

"We do have thousands of beds to spare."
How you love to wriggle.
How many "spare beds" did we have at the start of the pandemic?
Germay had 28,000 ICU beds at the start of the pandemic, not JUST beds.

Why do you think they sent old people with COVID-19 to care homes and left those in care homes to die.
And told people with COVID-19 to stay at home and self isolate instead of getting them all in to hospital?

ps even now
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8274403/Whistleblower-claims-elderly-
[Post edited 1 May 17:57]


I’m not wriggling. I stated a fact.

There hasn't been a single day where we’ve hit NHS capacity. Now there are all sorts of factors in that, not least the cancellation of all routine operations, people being unwilling to access the NHS for other, in some cases, serious and urgent treatments, but for the virus, no one has been turned away due to lack of beds.

On the care homes front, it’s far more complex than you suggest. The biggest scandal, if true, is the DNR policy. That needs detailed investigation. Also returning people to their care homes without testing and isolation. Again, needs thorough investigation. Scandalous if true.

But the reality is that a 90 year old, in a care home setting, with, for example, dementia, Alzheimer’s or similar, or even without those things, who is not physically capable of withstanding invasive ventilation, is far better surrounded by their own things, in their homes, than they would be in an ICU setting.

And people with the virus, from the start, were told to contact their GP or 111 if at any point their symptoms worsened or if their breathing was affected. The difficulty in some cases is that people have gone from mild to death within an incredibly short period. No one knew that could happen at the start. Particularly in younger people. We are all learning all the time.
0
Have the government failed? on 18:40 - May 1 with 219 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 18:27 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

I did quite clearly state cases v deaths.


Then you are completely wrong.
I suggest you actually look at the data.
I can help with a few examples if you want.
0
Have the government failed? on 18:44 - May 1 with 212 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 18:29 - May 1 by Nortbankboy

Feck me,this government has got some brass neck to
Announce they have tested 120 000 people!

Over 40 k of that were home test they sent out yesterday.
The people probably haven't received them yet!

It makes you think of how they are manipulating all these graphs
They are showing us.

Thank God Boris back,he wouldn't lie,would he?


Not sure why you’re replying to me. I’ve made the point about test numbers in a previous post.

But they don’t actually say they’ve tested 120,000 people, they say they’ve tested 73,000. Which is actual tests completed.

The 120,000 figure is nonsense as far as I can tell.
1
Have the government failed? on 18:45 - May 1 with 209 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 18:40 - May 1 by A_Fans_Dad

Then you are completely wrong.
I suggest you actually look at the data.
I can help with a few examples if you want.


I have looked at the data.

And the analysis from expert scientists. Thanks though.
0
About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© FansNetwork 2020