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Have the government failed? 08:00 - Apr 27 with 27685 viewsRiscaJack

Can the more educated posters on this forum give me some opinions on this?

For me it looks like a complete disgrace from the start, no leadership, promises not kept, flights still coming into country from badly hit parts of world, using the excuse of "scientific advice" for not postponing the likes of Cheltenham Festival, Liverpool v Madrid, music gigs. We watched what was happening in Italy, I just can't find any excuses for them.

JENKINS OUT

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Have the government failed? on 11:07 - May 2 with 698 viewschad

Can anyone explain please. Thought from the government announcement that anyone over 65 who developed symptoms could get a test kit and presumed this was a UK wide initiative.

However there are articles saying Wales is not expanding its testing to over 65, that we are following the science and do not need to do loads of tests!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52284979
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52493539
The staff and residents of care homes in England can now be tested for coronavirus, even if they don't have any symptoms, while anyone over 65 with symptoms can also be tested.’

So if over 65s in Wales develop symptoms can they request a test from the UK? scheme. Or does that scheme only cover England, given it seems Wales have decided not to make that available to over 65s (or staff and residents of care homes if they do not have symptoms).

Of course test useful as may seek care earlier (if know definitely have it, will not avoid hospital for fear of picking it up) and it has repeatedly been shown that people can leave it too late to go to hospital, and go down quickly (Chinese doctors stressed the importance of getting oxygen early as low levels of O2 could be silently damaging your organs). Possibly the monitoring of home cases by medical students over phone and if necessary visit, one reason Germany doing better.


Also for those that believe they may have already had it, so could have a degree of comfort in:
a. Having survived it and
b. Potentially having some degree of immunity and
c. Being unlikely in the short term at least to get it again and pass it on
Is there going to be an antibody test available anytime soon and are they already doing antibody tests for e.g. on NHS staff (I thought we were to begin antibody testing but there were problems with their reliability). These would obviously also provide much valuable information about potential wider community immunity.
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Have the government failed? on 11:09 - May 2 with 694 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 18:22 - May 1 by londonlisa2001

“ why we are still getting an average of over 4000 new cases every single day? ”

We are testing far more people now. When we had, say, 5000 cases per day three weeks ago, we were missing 80% of cases. Now we’re missing far fewer.

We’ve had more cases than Germany. And their current testing capacity according to them is 860,000 per week. Ours is now in excess of 700,000 per week. That’s not double,

Btw - their R0 is c. 0.8 at the moment (some say higher). In London the estimate is 0.6 at the moment (slightly higher elsewhere in the UK). We are in a greater lockdown at present than Germany. But Germany have a very different population spread. Their biggest city is less than a third as big as ours.


Another Lisa lie.
"We’ve had more cases than Germany. And their current testing capacity according to them is 860,000 per week. Ours is now in excess of 700,000 per week. That’s not double"
This last week we have actually had approximately 350,000 tests plus 40,000 tests "sent out", two days at 80,000 does not make a week of 700,000.
Which is less than half of the 860,000/week that they have had for weeks.
Next even at today's value of 80,000/day that is still only
560,000/week, 300,000 short.
But the point that you completely missed when trying to discredit my numbers from the worldometers site is that the more tests that you do the more cases you find.
So when we get up to 120,000/day to match Germany it will be an even worse comparison.
The last 2 days with more tests the new cases have increased to 6000/day.
When we get to 120,000 tests it will likely be 9000/day.
4 Times worse than Germany.
Therefore their lockdown is 4 times more effective than ours.
Of course they may have a less infectious version of the virus, but I doubt it.
[Post edited 2 May 11:12]
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Have the government failed? on 11:47 - May 2 with 665 viewsbuilthjack

Failed miserably

Poll: Birch - Would you trust him ?

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Have the government failed? on 11:56 - May 2 with 659 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 11:04 - May 2 by chad

Must have missed this assumed Lisa was joking as I thought there had been overwhelming requests for postal tests. Had read they had mailed their members to inform them of the criteria and encourage them to take tests if necessary, but is there evidence that 30,000 kits to Conservative party members as a result of the Mail, were requested / sent / included in the (was it) 120k figure.

The inclusion of postal tests sent out in the daily figure is decisive, though probably the easiest way to count them as tests provided. But they will not be able to count them when the tests are actually returned and carried out, so numbers should be the same. Although some may be requesting tests to sit on them (not literally).


I was being a little facetious.

The facts, as I understand them, are that c 40000 tests were posted out, either to those that requested them or satellite stations and were, quite ridiculously, included in the daily number.

But also that the conservative membership were contacted specifically to urge them to apply for a test Online if they had symptoms (the policy for all over 65s now in England, and possibly Scotland ) to increase the numbers foe a specific day.

The only way to count them is when they are completed tests - i.e. returned and tested in a lab. Counting them going out will result in test numbers that are never returned, or are returned where no accurate test is possible (taking a swab isn’t as easy as people seem to think).

They’ve done well to increase the numbers so dramatically and have undermined that by senselessly distorting counting mechanisms used to meet a self imposed target rather than being honest about it.

It’s politics at its absolute worst as it destroys trust.
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Have the government failed? on 12:01 - May 2 with 649 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 11:09 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

Another Lisa lie.
"We’ve had more cases than Germany. And their current testing capacity according to them is 860,000 per week. Ours is now in excess of 700,000 per week. That’s not double"
This last week we have actually had approximately 350,000 tests plus 40,000 tests "sent out", two days at 80,000 does not make a week of 700,000.
Which is less than half of the 860,000/week that they have had for weeks.
Next even at today's value of 80,000/day that is still only
560,000/week, 300,000 short.
But the point that you completely missed when trying to discredit my numbers from the worldometers site is that the more tests that you do the more cases you find.
So when we get up to 120,000/day to match Germany it will be an even worse comparison.
The last 2 days with more tests the new cases have increased to 6000/day.
When we get to 120,000 tests it will likely be 9000/day.
4 Times worse than Germany.
Therefore their lockdown is 4 times more effective than ours.
Of course they may have a less infectious version of the virus, but I doubt it.
[Post edited 2 May 11:12]


Increased testing doesn’t increase deaths you fool. The mortality rate drops by testing more.

We have many multiples more cases than we’ve ever picked up so the death rate you posted is wrong.

If you don’t understand, I can’t help you. Germany have also not picked up all their cases. They’ve picked up more however as they’ve tested far more.

As for the first bit, at present, their testing capacity is not double ours. It’s has been ten times ours in the past, but isn’t at the moment.

It’s not a lie if someone says something you don’t understand.
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Have the government failed? on 12:22 - May 2 with 628 viewschad

Have the government failed? on 11:09 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

Another Lisa lie.
"We’ve had more cases than Germany. And their current testing capacity according to them is 860,000 per week. Ours is now in excess of 700,000 per week. That’s not double"
This last week we have actually had approximately 350,000 tests plus 40,000 tests "sent out", two days at 80,000 does not make a week of 700,000.
Which is less than half of the 860,000/week that they have had for weeks.
Next even at today's value of 80,000/day that is still only
560,000/week, 300,000 short.
But the point that you completely missed when trying to discredit my numbers from the worldometers site is that the more tests that you do the more cases you find.
So when we get up to 120,000/day to match Germany it will be an even worse comparison.
The last 2 days with more tests the new cases have increased to 6000/day.
When we get to 120,000 tests it will likely be 9000/day.
4 Times worse than Germany.
Therefore their lockdown is 4 times more effective than ours.
Of course they may have a less infectious version of the virus, but I doubt it.
[Post edited 2 May 11:12]


If I have understood correctly, you are directly comparing number of cases to effectiveness of lockdown. If so is that realistic?

As you say there may be differences of infectiveness of strain but there are other confounding factors for e.g. density of population, which would make it seem naive to make a simple one to one comparison.
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Have the government failed? on 12:47 - May 2 with 607 viewsNeath_Jack

Have the government failed? on 09:49 - May 2 by majorraglan

I appreciate they may be more vulnerable on account of age, but if they aren’t showing symptoms or have reason to suspect they have been in contact with a carrier and may be infected it’s a waste of a kit.

Kits should have been targeted where they would be needed and not just sent to CP members.


Your last line is a moot point, because if you live in England are an "essential worker", which is basically anyone that is currently working, you can have a test whether you are showing symptoms or not. Several went and had one from one of our construction projects last week.

I want a mate like Flashberryjacks, who wears a Barnsley jersey with "Swans are my second team" on the back.
Poll: Would you support military action against Syria on what we know so far?

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Have the government failed? on 14:05 - May 2 with 567 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 12:01 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

Increased testing doesn’t increase deaths you fool. The mortality rate drops by testing more.

We have many multiples more cases than we’ve ever picked up so the death rate you posted is wrong.

If you don’t understand, I can’t help you. Germany have also not picked up all their cases. They’ve picked up more however as they’ve tested far more.

As for the first bit, at present, their testing capacity is not double ours. It’s has been ten times ours in the past, but isn’t at the moment.

It’s not a lie if someone says something you don’t understand.


You are the fool, I did not mention deaths.
I was talking about the effectiveness of our lockdown.
You have your facts and I call them lies, because they are not based on reality as anyone with a brain cell can see.
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Have the government failed? on 14:15 - May 2 with 554 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 14:05 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

You are the fool, I did not mention deaths.
I was talking about the effectiveness of our lockdown.
You have your facts and I call them lies, because they are not based on reality as anyone with a brain cell can see.


“ This is how dumb you are, I specifically asked if it was deaths versus cases and you said "I did quite clearly state cases v deaths. "
Now you say I am using positive tests.
Positive tests = the number of cases.
There are no other sort of confirmed cases.
Of course you could use closed cases like worldometers do which currently shows 18% of closed cases are dead.”

No, of course you didn’t. The worldometers number you are talking about is quite clearly not about deaths, as you explain above, following your ludicrous post stating that the UK has a death rate in excess of 15%.
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Have the government failed? on 14:44 - May 2 with 526 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 14:15 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

“ This is how dumb you are, I specifically asked if it was deaths versus cases and you said "I did quite clearly state cases v deaths. "
Now you say I am using positive tests.
Positive tests = the number of cases.
There are no other sort of confirmed cases.
Of course you could use closed cases like worldometers do which currently shows 18% of closed cases are dead.”

No, of course you didn’t. The worldometers number you are talking about is quite clearly not about deaths, as you explain above, following your ludicrous post stating that the UK has a death rate in excess of 15%.


You see the problem that you have is that you don't actually read what I write.
I know you think I spout rubbish, but because you don't actually take in what I write you keep making mistakes in your hurry to discedit what I have said.
You are conflating two seperate posts by me.
One on Deaths rates in response to something you wrote that was obviously wrong about every country having the same death rate and one where I asked you 2 questions on the effectiveness of our lockdown in response to ""The reason much if this has happened, is because the virus was here before anyone knew about it.".
Of course the UK's current death rate is 15.6%, because we have not identified all the low symptom and asymptomatic cases due to lack of testing.
Anybody can see that as more cases are identified the death rate comes down. But there are plenty of countries with higher tests/million than we have and their death rates are far lower than ours at the moment.

What numbers would you like me to use?
Some imaginary ones that make your case for you that all the countries are in the same ballpark?
When they patently are not.
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Have the government failed? on 14:47 - May 2 with 523 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 14:44 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

You see the problem that you have is that you don't actually read what I write.
I know you think I spout rubbish, but because you don't actually take in what I write you keep making mistakes in your hurry to discedit what I have said.
You are conflating two seperate posts by me.
One on Deaths rates in response to something you wrote that was obviously wrong about every country having the same death rate and one where I asked you 2 questions on the effectiveness of our lockdown in response to ""The reason much if this has happened, is because the virus was here before anyone knew about it.".
Of course the UK's current death rate is 15.6%, because we have not identified all the low symptom and asymptomatic cases due to lack of testing.
Anybody can see that as more cases are identified the death rate comes down. But there are plenty of countries with higher tests/million than we have and their death rates are far lower than ours at the moment.

What numbers would you like me to use?
Some imaginary ones that make your case for you that all the countries are in the same ballpark?
When they patently are not.


“ Anybody can see that as more cases are identified the death rate comes down. But there are plenty of countries with higher tests/million than we have and their death rates are far lower than ours at the moment. ”

That’s why I think you spout rubbish.

Have a read of the above and think about why it’s wrong.
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Have the government failed? on 15:03 - May 2 with 506 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 14:47 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

“ Anybody can see that as more cases are identified the death rate comes down. But there are plenty of countries with higher tests/million than we have and their death rates are far lower than ours at the moment. ”

That’s why I think you spout rubbish.

Have a read of the above and think about why it’s wrong.


No it is not "wrong" it is the facts as we know them now.
So come on what Data do YOU want to use as a comparison of Current Death Rates in the different countries where YOU say they are all in the same ball park (ish)?

Don't be shy now.
[Post edited 2 May 15:04]
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Have the government failed? on 15:24 - May 2 with 484 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 15:03 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

No it is not "wrong" it is the facts as we know them now.
So come on what Data do YOU want to use as a comparison of Current Death Rates in the different countries where YOU say they are all in the same ball park (ish)?

Don't be shy now.
[Post edited 2 May 15:04]


Yes, it is wrong.

When identification of cases go up death rates come down.

No wonder you like Trump. You must find him an intellectual heavyweight.
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Have the government failed? on 16:18 - May 2 with 460 viewsraynor94

Have the government failed? on 15:24 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

Yes, it is wrong.

When identification of cases go up death rates come down.

No wonder you like Trump. You must find him an intellectual heavyweight.



You give it out, you take it back it`s all part of the game

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Have the government failed? on 16:32 - May 2 with 446 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 15:24 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

Yes, it is wrong.

When identification of cases go up death rates come down.

No wonder you like Trump. You must find him an intellectual heavyweight.


You see I agreed with you, but you still didn't answer the question, because you can't can you.
You made a stupid statement and can't back it up.
You just resort to throwing insults as usual.
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Have the government failed? on 16:32 - May 2 with 445 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 16:18 - May 2 by raynor94



Another brown noser I see.
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Have the government failed? on 16:44 - May 2 with 438 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 16:32 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

You see I agreed with you, but you still didn't answer the question, because you can't can you.
You made a stupid statement and can't back it up.
You just resort to throwing insults as usual.


You’re very funny but even I’m getting bored explaining basic maths to you now.

Deaths divided by cases equals death rate.

As identification of cases goes up, death rate comes down.

The countries that have tested the biggest percentage of their population have picked up more of their milder cases. That results in a lower death rate. The numbers you have given yourself support that.
Germany - lower
Korea - lower

I don’t need to back it up, you’ve done it yourself.
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Have the government failed? on 17:01 - May 2 with 431 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 16:44 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

You’re very funny but even I’m getting bored explaining basic maths to you now.

Deaths divided by cases equals death rate.

As identification of cases goes up, death rate comes down.

The countries that have tested the biggest percentage of their population have picked up more of their milder cases. That results in a lower death rate. The numbers you have given yourself support that.
Germany - lower
Korea - lower

I don’t need to back it up, you’ve done it yourself.


No, you haven't because that was not the question.
The question is to prove your statement that" all the countries have death rates in the same ball park".
That is what you said and you have no data to prove it.
You just made it up.
And you can't even get your example right, you really should give up and just admit you were wrong, as you are again now.
Korea 12,153 tests/million death rate 0.023018378
Germany 30,400 tests/million death rate 0.040629658
UK 15,082 tests/million death rate 0.156324269
So Germany twice as many tests/million and a quarter of our Death rate.
ie twice as good.
I don't need to explain about Korea do I?

You madam are bloody clueless.
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Have the government failed? on 17:01 - May 2 with 431 viewsDJack

Have the government failed? on 09:58 - May 2 by Catullus

You're perfectly entitled to your opinion and I'm perfectly entitled to mine.

If you could point out where I laid down any rigid reply structure please do, I wouldn't want to repeat my mistake.


This bit obviously pointed to a strand of your structure...

"Criticise Bojo all you want for what he's done but Corbyn is irrelevant in this. "

It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

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Have the government failed? on 17:05 - May 2 with 426 viewscontroversial_jack

Have the government failed? on 16:32 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

Another brown noser I see.


The original brownie
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Have the government failed? on 17:22 - May 2 with 409 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 17:01 - May 2 by A_Fans_Dad

No, you haven't because that was not the question.
The question is to prove your statement that" all the countries have death rates in the same ball park".
That is what you said and you have no data to prove it.
You just made it up.
And you can't even get your example right, you really should give up and just admit you were wrong, as you are again now.
Korea 12,153 tests/million death rate 0.023018378
Germany 30,400 tests/million death rate 0.040629658
UK 15,082 tests/million death rate 0.156324269
So Germany twice as many tests/million and a quarter of our Death rate.
ie twice as good.
I don't need to explain about Korea do I?

You madam are bloody clueless.


You’ve literally just proved again what I said.

You sir, are bloody stupid.

At the end of all this, what do you expect the mortality rate of the virus to be?
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Have the government failed? on 17:28 - May 2 with 399 viewsraynor94

Have the government failed? on 17:05 - May 2 by controversial_jack

The original brownie


Surely even you enjoy Afd being schooled by the most erudite poster on here.

You give it out, you take it back it`s all part of the game

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Have the government failed? on 18:09 - May 2 with 362 viewschad

Have the government failed? on 17:28 - May 2 by raynor94

Surely even you enjoy Afd being schooled by the most erudite poster on here.


I can’t always be bothered to follow the convolutions of extended arguments, especially when they deteriorate into abuse, but if you wish I can point out a few times when AFD was correct.

Although if you know one person is being schooled (rather than just backing the other person you like, and assuming they are right, without following the details) then I suppose you are already aware of those?
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Have the government failed? on 18:51 - May 2 with 329 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 12:22 - May 2 by chad

If I have understood correctly, you are directly comparing number of cases to effectiveness of lockdown. If so is that realistic?

As you say there may be differences of infectiveness of strain but there are other confounding factors for e.g. density of population, which would make it seem naive to make a simple one to one comparison.


Chad, yes there are a lot of confounding factors, probably the largest two are stop or slow the spread as quickly as possible, which is the Asian route along with Australia and New Zealand.
The second is protecting and treating your patients.
Population Density is the biggest problem for the second one, which is why governments must do all they can for those most densely packed.
In that respect you have to go the whole hog to get every percentage that you can.
Our government didn't do any of them, they didn't prepare the NHS, they didn't react quickly enough like the Asians, they didn't introduce even simple testing like taking travellers temperatures at airports, and the channel tunnel and ferries.
They didn'y warn the general public how bad it was going to get.
They didn't introduce social distancing until we had thousands of cases.
They didn't do proper Quarantine and still aren't.
THey didn't go the same route as the rest of the world and initially went for herd immunity as quickly as possible, wasting valuable time.
They were way too slow getting mass testing off the ground.
They ignored old peple's homes and also told infected people to stay at home until they were virtually too ill to help.
They banned the use of drugs that other countries had used.
They did not ask for people to use masks, gloves and glasses, in fact they discouraged using them with stupid fear stories.
Other countries used some of those techniques and not others depending on their experience, social background and what they thought the public would tolerate.
To say that they mismanaged it at every stage is an understatement.

I have another metric that I use, but I was basically responding to Lisa's comments.
The onthat I use is the growth of the cases and the growth of the Deaths.
I took a snapshot of the top 50 countries on worldometers on the 29th of March.
I then test the growth factor by dividing where the countries are now compared to then.
ONe of the main reasons was to compare Sweden with a population of 10m and Czechia also with a popultion of ten million.
Both went the open route, but Czechia asked their people to wear home made masks.
Back on the 29th of March Sweden was 19th on the list and Czechai 20th.
Now Sweden are 21st and Czechia are 43rd.
Sweden has a growth rate of 5.8 and Czechia a rate of 2.8.
Which strongly indicates that Masks make a difference, even though we already new that from the South Korean professor's video that I posted.
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Have the government failed? on 18:54 - May 2 with 323 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 17:22 - May 2 by londonlisa2001

You’ve literally just proved again what I said.

You sir, are bloody stupid.

At the end of all this, what do you expect the mortality rate of the virus to be?


Probaly about 1 percent, ie 10 times worse than the flu and that is with social distancing and lockdowns.
But then again as I posted about a month ago you have to add the excess deaths from non treatment of all the other patients.
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