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Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 122511 viewsGlyn1

That's basically it.

Thoughts please.
[Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]

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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:55 - Jul 27 with 1156 viewsmajorraglan

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:35 - Jul 27 by A_Fans_Dad

Did you see the Shrophire campsite, which they think may be related to Welsh cases.


Edit -just seen AFD’s link to the DM.
[Post edited 27 Jul 2020 22:01]
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:06 - Jul 27 with 1143 viewsKilkennyjack

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:44 - Jul 27 by Scotia

The Tories gained 6 seats and increased their share of the vote. Plaid's share of the vote decreased.


The Tory vote in Wales in 2017 was 528,839
The Tory vote in Wales in 2019 was 557,234

Basically unchanged.

Wales will never ever vote Tory.

Beware of the Risen People

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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:10 - Jul 27 with 1139 viewsAndy1300

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:06 - Jul 27 by Kilkennyjack

The Tory vote in Wales in 2017 was 528,839
The Tory vote in Wales in 2019 was 557,234

Basically unchanged.

Wales will never ever vote Tory.


I wouldn’t be so sure, people are disillusioned with Labour and PC will never be as successful as the SNP

Number 1 team in Wales

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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:19 - Jul 27 with 1122 viewsScotia

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:06 - Jul 27 by Kilkennyjack

The Tory vote in Wales in 2017 was 528,839
The Tory vote in Wales in 2019 was 557,234

Basically unchanged.

Wales will never ever vote Tory.


Basically unchanged?

I wasn't one of the 557,234 but I'm pretty sure that is a higher number than 528,839. About 6% higher, that is a pretty big swing in less than 2 years .

What was the PC and other nationalist party vote numbers?
[Post edited 27 Jul 2020 22:20]
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:37 - Jul 27 with 1105 viewspencoedjack

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:19 - Jul 27 by Scotia

Basically unchanged?

I wasn't one of the 557,234 but I'm pretty sure that is a higher number than 528,839. About 6% higher, that is a pretty big swing in less than 2 years .

What was the PC and other nationalist party vote numbers?
[Post edited 27 Jul 2020 22:20]


Bridgend voted Tory for the 1st time in a generation

The job dopey Drakeford is doing will result in more areas of Wales turning blue.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:54 - Jul 28 with 1058 viewsAndy1300

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:55 - Jul 27 by londonlisa2001

Strange.

I wear one because I think it makes others safer. They wear one because it makes me safer.


Read what I said! Not everyone is you Lisa

Number 1 team in Wales

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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:24 - Jul 28 with 1016 viewsCatullus

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:06 - Jul 27 by Kilkennyjack

The Tory vote in Wales in 2017 was 528,839
The Tory vote in Wales in 2019 was 557,234

Basically unchanged.

Wales will never ever vote Tory.


How many in Wales have voted Tory in previous General Elections and what percentage of the vote was it?

In 1992 Labour took 27 Welsh seats, the Tories just 6 and just less than 500,000 voted Tory so the Tory numbers have grown. Whether that's Welsh us voting Tory or a growing number of English people come to live here it's hard to say.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:46 - Jul 28 with 1008 viewsexhmrc1

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:24 - Jul 28 by Catullus

How many in Wales have voted Tory in previous General Elections and what percentage of the vote was it?

In 1992 Labour took 27 Welsh seats, the Tories just 6 and just less than 500,000 voted Tory so the Tory numbers have grown. Whether that's Welsh us voting Tory or a growing number of English people come to live here it's hard to say.


The problem in the last couple of elections has been Jeremy Corbyn and the Welsh public not being happy with him. You have also had some who wanted brexit so voted Tory. The figures will drop at the next election. If the Tories couldnt get in at the last election when everything was in their favour they wont next time or I suspect any time in the future. They are not likely again to have such a favourable scenario.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:42 - Jul 28 with 984 viewsBillyChong

COVID deaths are way down in Wales - 0 in the last 24 hours compared to 120 odd in England. Scotland look to have nailed it as well.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:07 - Jul 28 with 970 viewsCatullus

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:46 - Jul 28 by exhmrc1

The problem in the last couple of elections has been Jeremy Corbyn and the Welsh public not being happy with him. You have also had some who wanted brexit so voted Tory. The figures will drop at the next election. If the Tories couldnt get in at the last election when everything was in their favour they wont next time or I suspect any time in the future. They are not likely again to have such a favourable scenario.


The gradual rise in the tory vote started jusr after devolution, it could just be a coincidence. I agree circumstances have heavily favoured the tories but I won't try and predict the future. I do hope that Starmer sorts labour out and makes them a real challenger soon but again, the future is beyond my sight.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:11 - Jul 28 with 969 viewsexhmrc1

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:42 - Jul 28 by BillyChong

COVID deaths are way down in Wales - 0 in the last 24 hours compared to 120 odd in England. Scotland look to have nailed it as well.


Its the 13th time since 6 July. There will unfortunately still continue to be some deaths in Wales as there are 11 people still in intensive care.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:24 - Jul 28 with 954 viewslondonlisa2001

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:42 - Jul 28 by BillyChong

COVID deaths are way down in Wales - 0 in the last 24 hours compared to 120 odd in England. Scotland look to have nailed it as well.


England’s equivalent figure was 12. The 120 figure is backdating deaths outside hospital, which is done in a completely different way in England to the devolved nations which is why England are in the process of changing it.

The current 7 day infection rates per 100,000 are:

North West England - 15.0
Yorkshire and The Humber - 13.1
East Midlands - 9.9
West Midlands - 8.7
East of England - 6.0
London - 5.8
South East - 5.2
South West - 3.3
North East - 2.5
Wales - 7.2
Scotland - 1.5
N Ireland - 3.3
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:35 - Jul 28 with 951 viewsProfessor

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:24 - Jul 28 by londonlisa2001

England’s equivalent figure was 12. The 120 figure is backdating deaths outside hospital, which is done in a completely different way in England to the devolved nations which is why England are in the process of changing it.

The current 7 day infection rates per 100,000 are:

North West England - 15.0
Yorkshire and The Humber - 13.1
East Midlands - 9.9
West Midlands - 8.7
East of England - 6.0
London - 5.8
South East - 5.2
South West - 3.3
North East - 2.5
Wales - 7.2
Scotland - 1.5
N Ireland - 3.3


Good visualisation of European cases- shows the localisation in Spain very well. Other areas are pretty high ratio. Would not recommend travel to NW England on this.
https://innovationorigins.com/the-second-corona-wave-emerges-in-europe/
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:40 - Jul 28 with 945 viewslondonlisa2001

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:35 - Jul 28 by Professor

Good visualisation of European cases- shows the localisation in Spain very well. Other areas are pretty high ratio. Would not recommend travel to NW England on this.
https://innovationorigins.com/the-second-corona-wave-emerges-in-europe/


Yep - people cancelling their holiday to Oldham left, right and centre...

The reality, of course, is they are doing an enormous amount of targeted testing (including door to door testing of everybody) in some towns. It’s picking up so man6 cases that would never have been picked up a month ago, or even a few weeks ago.

Pillar 1 positive tests are stable at around 100- 120 a day. Given that includes repeat testing of NHS staff, the numbers now showing as requiring hospitalisation are thankfully low.

The total deaths figure in England is ridiculous. Miles out of kilter with the other nations in the methodology. The way they report it is insane.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:07 - Jul 29 with 890 viewsKilkennyjack

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:40 - Jul 28 by londonlisa2001

Yep - people cancelling their holiday to Oldham left, right and centre...

The reality, of course, is they are doing an enormous amount of targeted testing (including door to door testing of everybody) in some towns. It’s picking up so man6 cases that would never have been picked up a month ago, or even a few weeks ago.

Pillar 1 positive tests are stable at around 100- 120 a day. Given that includes repeat testing of NHS staff, the numbers now showing as requiring hospitalisation are thankfully low.

The total deaths figure in England is ridiculous. Miles out of kilter with the other nations in the methodology. The way they report it is insane.


As actions in a pandemic are based on facts/data then how has the mighty world beating English/uk government got it so wrong for so long ?
Fixing it now ffs.

How many lives has it cost ?

Great to see Wales, Scotland and the north of Ireland getting this important stuff right.
Looks like devolve power is a good thing.
And indy will be better still.

Welsh govt are using the Irish app !!
World class Johnson app does not even work.

Beware of the Risen People

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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:18 - Jul 29 with 878 viewsexhmrc1

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:07 - Jul 28 by Catullus

The gradual rise in the tory vote started jusr after devolution, it could just be a coincidence. I agree circumstances have heavily favoured the tories but I won't try and predict the future. I do hope that Starmer sorts labour out and makes them a real challenger soon but again, the future is beyond my sight.


I agree the future is beyond any of us. However what is totally clear is that Corbyn was an electoral disaster just like Michael Foot. It is highly unlikely that Starmer or indeed most other prospective Labour leaders will be as bad. Also the Brexit issue will be done and many who voted Tory for that wont be doing so again.

Even given the Brexit issue the evidence was that the anti Brexit parties received a higher proportion of the UK vote. The difference was that the anti Brexit vote was split between parties whilst the pro Brexit vote largely went to the Tories when the Brexit party effectively ended up supporting them,
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:37 - Jul 29 with 872 viewschad

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:18 - Jul 29 by exhmrc1

I agree the future is beyond any of us. However what is totally clear is that Corbyn was an electoral disaster just like Michael Foot. It is highly unlikely that Starmer or indeed most other prospective Labour leaders will be as bad. Also the Brexit issue will be done and many who voted Tory for that wont be doing so again.

Even given the Brexit issue the evidence was that the anti Brexit parties received a higher proportion of the UK vote. The difference was that the anti Brexit vote was split between parties whilst the pro Brexit vote largely went to the Tories when the Brexit party effectively ended up supporting them,


Who were the anti Brexit parties?
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:50 - Jul 29 with 866 viewsProfessor

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:37 - Jul 29 by chad

Who were the anti Brexit parties?


Not Labour. Corbyn wanted Brexit.

In UK- Greens and Lib Dems
Scotland -SNP
Wales- Plaid Cymru
NI- Sinn Fein & SDLP
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:08 - Jul 29 with 861 viewschad

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:50 - Jul 29 by Professor

Not Labour. Corbyn wanted Brexit.

In UK- Greens and Lib Dems
Scotland -SNP
Wales- Plaid Cymru
NI- Sinn Fein & SDLP


Thanks Prof, that is what I was thinking.

So is it likely they got the majority of the vote, as said above, wouldn’t have thought so.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:25 - Jul 29 with 857 viewsHighjack

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:50 - Jul 29 by Professor

Not Labour. Corbyn wanted Brexit.

In UK- Greens and Lib Dems
Scotland -SNP
Wales- Plaid Cymru
NI- Sinn Fein & SDLP


It’s hard to know what labour exactly wanted. I think most of their MP’s were staunchly anti Brexit but they were painfully aware that a lot of their support wasn’t, hence the flip flopping and lack of any clear policy or strategy. They tried to please everyone on that issue and ended up alienating instead.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:47 - Jul 29 with 849 viewslondonlisa2001

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:07 - Jul 29 by Kilkennyjack

As actions in a pandemic are based on facts/data then how has the mighty world beating English/uk government got it so wrong for so long ?
Fixing it now ffs.

How many lives has it cost ?

Great to see Wales, Scotland and the north of Ireland getting this important stuff right.
Looks like devolve power is a good thing.
And indy will be better still.

Welsh govt are using the Irish app !!
World class Johnson app does not even work.


You appear to have no clue what I was referring to.

I’m talking about the recording of deaths - it hasn’t cost any lives.

Wales, as an example, only records a death as Covid if the person has tested positive within the previous 28 days. Scotland does the same.England records as Covid if the person tested positive at any time.

PHE are reporting as Covid deaths people who have not had Covid stated on the death certificate but who may have tested positive in March or April. That’s what is making the ‘daily death’ figures ridiculous at this point. As old people die every single day, in every single year.

If Covid was tested within a care home back in April or May, or even June and 70% (say) of the people infected recovered, but then some died last week of other causes, do you think they are Covid deaths or not?

If it was the other way round, I have absolutely no doubt that you would claim that Wales was being far more prudent and was correct and England was under reporting deaths.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:02 - Jul 29 with 842 viewsjack_lord

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:47 - Jul 29 by londonlisa2001

You appear to have no clue what I was referring to.

I’m talking about the recording of deaths - it hasn’t cost any lives.

Wales, as an example, only records a death as Covid if the person has tested positive within the previous 28 days. Scotland does the same.England records as Covid if the person tested positive at any time.

PHE are reporting as Covid deaths people who have not had Covid stated on the death certificate but who may have tested positive in March or April. That’s what is making the ‘daily death’ figures ridiculous at this point. As old people die every single day, in every single year.

If Covid was tested within a care home back in April or May, or even June and 70% (say) of the people infected recovered, but then some died last week of other causes, do you think they are Covid deaths or not?

If it was the other way round, I have absolutely no doubt that you would claim that Wales was being far more prudent and was correct and England was under reporting deaths.


I know this isn't quite related. The UK has over 45000 deaths recorded and Spain 28000. M cousin and his Spanish wife have said that those figures are clearly better than the UK's even the we have a population of 20 million more. The UK, however, has had 300 ,000 positive cases and Spain has had nearly 330,000 cases which means that Spain has a much worse infection rate but the mortality rate isn't as high. So my cousin is actually wrong but why are so many more dying in the UK?

Lord_Jack increasingly detached from the riches of kicking a ball
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:12 - Jul 29 with 835 viewsHighjack

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:02 - Jul 29 by jack_lord

I know this isn't quite related. The UK has over 45000 deaths recorded and Spain 28000. M cousin and his Spanish wife have said that those figures are clearly better than the UK's even the we have a population of 20 million more. The UK, however, has had 300 ,000 positive cases and Spain has had nearly 330,000 cases which means that Spain has a much worse infection rate but the mortality rate isn't as high. So my cousin is actually wrong but why are so many more dying in the UK?


This has been the problem with these stats from the start. It doesn’t take into account the hundreds of thousands, possibly even millions who have contracted this virus and either not known or not been tested which leads to grossly misleading figures about infection rates and death rates. All countries seem to be recording deaths differently, others were testing a lot earlier or later. These sort of stats should just be merely a guide and not some sort of competition as some welsh nationalist types would like.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Poll: Should Dippy Drakeford do us all a massive favour and just bog off?

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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:17 - Jul 29 with 832 viewsProfessor

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:47 - Jul 29 by londonlisa2001

You appear to have no clue what I was referring to.

I’m talking about the recording of deaths - it hasn’t cost any lives.

Wales, as an example, only records a death as Covid if the person has tested positive within the previous 28 days. Scotland does the same.England records as Covid if the person tested positive at any time.

PHE are reporting as Covid deaths people who have not had Covid stated on the death certificate but who may have tested positive in March or April. That’s what is making the ‘daily death’ figures ridiculous at this point. As old people die every single day, in every single year.

If Covid was tested within a care home back in April or May, or even June and 70% (say) of the people infected recovered, but then some died last week of other causes, do you think they are Covid deaths or not?

If it was the other way round, I have absolutely no doubt that you would claim that Wales was being far more prudent and was correct and England was under reporting deaths.


This is the case. The problem is where do you draw a line, particularly as longer term effects- including massive increases in the likelihood of stroke, MI etc. Many infections can lead to other problems and massively decrease life expectancy. I would also suggest death rate is a poor indicator of what is going on. MOST people recover, but there is high morbidity and likely to be longer term issues with health. The infection rate is very valid. Many people get very ill without being life threatening.

The statistical/epidemiological data gathered has been surprisingly below the standard the UK normally works too. I can only suggest that the underfunding of PHE is a big factor. We would see the same with animal disease and APHA
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:20 - Jul 29 with 830 viewsProfessor

Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:02 - Jul 29 by jack_lord

I know this isn't quite related. The UK has over 45000 deaths recorded and Spain 28000. M cousin and his Spanish wife have said that those figures are clearly better than the UK's even the we have a population of 20 million more. The UK, however, has had 300 ,000 positive cases and Spain has had nearly 330,000 cases which means that Spain has a much worse infection rate but the mortality rate isn't as high. So my cousin is actually wrong but why are so many more dying in the UK?


It's possible related to our pretty disastrous first month of testing. Like many things that were done very badly early on. In contrast most of what is being done now is reasonably sensible. Although there are clear questions around some of the dodgy deal tenders and test and trace failures.

I suspect we missed an awful lot of infected people early on.
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