| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 127068 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:03 - Jul 30 with 1219 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:53 - Jul 30 by Kilkennyjack |
Your comments reveal that you believe that you know what other people think.
You are looking a bit silly tbh. |
You thinking someone else looks silly after the posts you’ve made this morning is genuinely funny.
Where would you say the cut off should be after someone has tested positive for Covid before they stop being automatically recorded as a Covid death in the statistics?
How long? You know, so you can record it accurately. |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:29 - Jul 30 with 1216 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:03 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
You thinking someone else looks silly after the posts you’ve made this morning is genuinely funny.
Where would you say the cut off should be after someone has tested positive for Covid before they stop being automatically recorded as a Covid death in the statistics?
How long? You know, so you can record it accurately. |
You are both right and wrong.
As prof said there are confounding factors, especially about COVI-19 and death.
You have not mentioned if they are still positive as many still are.
You have not mentioned if they are in ICU.
You have not mentioned if their heart has been compromised, which has been established as a serious outcome of COVID-19.
You have not mentioned if their lungs have been compromised, which has been established as another serious outcome of COVID-19.
You have not mentioned if their brain (stroke) has been compromised, which has been established as another serious outcome of COVID-19.
Has their immune system been compromised?
All of those things have to be taken in to consideration.
If they had COVID-19 without any adverse symptoms at all then if they die it would be very hard to attribute their death to COVID-19. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:39 - Jul 30 with 1206 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:29 - Jul 30 by A_Fans_Dad |
You are both right and wrong.
As prof said there are confounding factors, especially about COVI-19 and death.
You have not mentioned if they are still positive as many still are.
You have not mentioned if they are in ICU.
You have not mentioned if their heart has been compromised, which has been established as a serious outcome of COVID-19.
You have not mentioned if their lungs have been compromised, which has been established as another serious outcome of COVID-19.
You have not mentioned if their brain (stroke) has been compromised, which has been established as another serious outcome of COVID-19.
Has their immune system been compromised?
All of those things have to be taken in to consideration.
If they had COVID-19 without any adverse symptoms at all then if they die it would be very hard to attribute their death to COVID-19. |
Sigh. That’s the whole point. A blanket cut off is difficult for all those reasons.
England doesn’t cut off at all at present, which is ridiculous. The others cut off at 28 days which is also flawed.
Saying I’m wrong for pointing out exactly why it’s hard and then listing the reasons why it is hard is strange. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:51 - Jul 30 with 1206 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:39 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
Sigh. That’s the whole point. A blanket cut off is difficult for all those reasons.
England doesn’t cut off at all at present, which is ridiculous. The others cut off at 28 days which is also flawed.
Saying I’m wrong for pointing out exactly why it’s hard and then listing the reasons why it is hard is strange. |
But the death rate is not that relevant to the pressing need of controlling outbreaks. We can come up with a more precise figure retrospectively. What is important is detecting new infections and their contacts. I don’t get why Kilkenny is so aerated. England, Scotland and Wales (in that order) are in the European top 5 for deaths per 100,000. None have been very good. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:10 - Jul 30 with 1189 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:51 - Jul 30 by Professor |
But the death rate is not that relevant to the pressing need of controlling outbreaks. We can come up with a more precise figure retrospectively. What is important is detecting new infections and their contacts. I don’t get why Kilkenny is so aerated. England, Scotland and Wales (in that order) are in the European top 5 for deaths per 100,000. None have been very good. |
Because some on here have shown their main interest is in being ‘better than England’.
For political point scoring.
The death rate is simply a mechanism to some to demonstrate that Wales is doing a ‘great’ job. In much the same way as the Welsh rugby team could be awful, but as long as they beat England, many don’t care.
If people are constantly comparing numbers of deaths (not only here, the media are obsessed), it’s useful to realise they are not being calculated in the same way. The figures for deaths per 100,000 of course are equally flawed across Europe for the same reason - they aren’t calculated consistently. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:16 - Jul 30 with 1194 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:10 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
Because some on here have shown their main interest is in being ‘better than England’.
For political point scoring.
The death rate is simply a mechanism to some to demonstrate that Wales is doing a ‘great’ job. In much the same way as the Welsh rugby team could be awful, but as long as they beat England, many don’t care.
If people are constantly comparing numbers of deaths (not only here, the media are obsessed), it’s useful to realise they are not being calculated in the same way. The figures for deaths per 100,000 of course are equally flawed across Europe for the same reason - they aren’t calculated consistently. |
I would argue the Welsh approach was marginally better, but not a great deal. Death rate also only truly works if the demographics are close- Italy with an older population took a relative hit. Death is only one outcome-more people get seriously ill than die of course. We don’t record morbidity like mortality. As I said the only thing I am interested in is current rate per 100, 000. We roughly know the mortality rate. Unless it changes dramatically it is pretty irrelevant in acting to prevent re-emergence | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:24 - Jul 30 with 1192 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:39 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
Sigh. That’s the whole point. A blanket cut off is difficult for all those reasons.
England doesn’t cut off at all at present, which is ridiculous. The others cut off at 28 days which is also flawed.
Saying I’m wrong for pointing out exactly why it’s hard and then listing the reasons why it is hard is strange. |
Because you are asking someone to provide a definitive cutoff when it is not possible to give one.
"Where would you say the cut off should be after someone has tested positive for Covid before they stop being automatically recorded as a Covid death in the statistics? "
Why would you have a 28 day cutoff or any other fixed time period when someone could have been in ICU for 3 months and then died? | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:28 - Jul 30 with 1189 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:10 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
Because some on here have shown their main interest is in being ‘better than England’.
For political point scoring.
The death rate is simply a mechanism to some to demonstrate that Wales is doing a ‘great’ job. In much the same way as the Welsh rugby team could be awful, but as long as they beat England, many don’t care.
If people are constantly comparing numbers of deaths (not only here, the media are obsessed), it’s useful to realise they are not being calculated in the same way. The figures for deaths per 100,000 of course are equally flawed across Europe for the same reason - they aren’t calculated consistently. |
From what you have just said you appear to believe that there is no point in "comparisons" of how well Governments and Health Officials have handled the pandemic when it is all we have. | | | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:39 - Jul 30 with 1169 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:24 - Jul 30 by A_Fans_Dad |
Because you are asking someone to provide a definitive cutoff when it is not possible to give one.
"Where would you say the cut off should be after someone has tested positive for Covid before they stop being automatically recorded as a Covid death in the statistics? "
Why would you have a 28 day cutoff or any other fixed time period when someone could have been in ICU for 3 months and then died? |
I asked him for one to demonstrate that it wasn’t possible...
That was the whole point.
We’re not talking about hospital cases. That’s done differently.
We’re talking about cases in the community outside hospital. Wales cuts off at 28 day’s following a positive test. England has no cut off.
As time goes on it leads to ever greater divergence in numbers of deaths from Covid. It’s why England has roughly 10-12 deaths a day now in hospital and yet is still reporting 80-100 ‘other’ settings deaths. It’s because older people die every day. And some of them, a month or two ago will have had a positive test. It doesn’t mean they die of Covid. Nor that it’s unrelated.
Kilkenny, as he doesn’t understand the issue, is arguing about it for no reason. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:46 - Jul 30 with 1163 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:28 - Jul 30 by A_Fans_Dad |
From what you have just said you appear to believe that there is no point in "comparisons" of how well Governments and Health Officials have handled the pandemic when it is all we have. |
I think there is every point in comparison. But also that comparisons are only that if they are comparing like with like. Which at the moment, they are not.
The only real comparison will be excess deaths. But even that is somewhat flawed due to population differences. Countries have different amounts of death per 100,000 people anyway (as an example, Wales has a higher death rate per 100,000 on average than England). | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:50 - Jul 30 with 1158 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:16 - Jul 30 by Professor |
I would argue the Welsh approach was marginally better, but not a great deal. Death rate also only truly works if the demographics are close- Italy with an older population took a relative hit. Death is only one outcome-more people get seriously ill than die of course. We don’t record morbidity like mortality. As I said the only thing I am interested in is current rate per 100, 000. We roughly know the mortality rate. Unless it changes dramatically it is pretty irrelevant in acting to prevent re-emergence |
Current rate per 100,000 is given in huge detail daily (by lower local authority level). Also by country / region. It’s been the most useful stat throughout.
It’s hard to see who has done best I think. Wales has had higher cases per 100,000 than England but fewer deaths. I’d argue the cases are the only controllable bit, although I suspect that Wales has done a better job in keeping it away from care homes but a worse job in stopping community spread. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:02 - Jul 30 with 1161 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:50 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
Current rate per 100,000 is given in huge detail daily (by lower local authority level). Also by country / region. It’s been the most useful stat throughout.
It’s hard to see who has done best I think. Wales has had higher cases per 100,000 than England but fewer deaths. I’d argue the cases are the only controllable bit, although I suspect that Wales has done a better job in keeping it away from care homes but a worse job in stopping community spread. |
Not helped by the early high rates in RCT and the North Wales food- production outbreaks. I really do mean marginal- which is what the data show. Scotland is the interesting one in that the perception is of being well managed, but the reality shows not. What Nicola Sturgeon did well is clarity of message and consistency. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:18 - Jul 30 with 1096 views | Catullus |
Personally I've stopped worrying over who did better. I'm more concerned with have they learned the lessons of the last 3 months and will we handle a second wave better?
Seems to me the constraints of lockdown have turned too many people doolally. There are plenty who seem to ignore that the virus is still here, who ignore distancing, in all age groups.
Herd stupidity seems to have taken over. A second lockdown, in my opinion, won't be as succesful as the first. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:26 - Jul 30 with 1077 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:39 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
I asked him for one to demonstrate that it wasn’t possible...
That was the whole point.
We’re not talking about hospital cases. That’s done differently.
We’re talking about cases in the community outside hospital. Wales cuts off at 28 day’s following a positive test. England has no cut off.
As time goes on it leads to ever greater divergence in numbers of deaths from Covid. It’s why England has roughly 10-12 deaths a day now in hospital and yet is still reporting 80-100 ‘other’ settings deaths. It’s because older people die every day. And some of them, a month or two ago will have had a positive test. It doesn’t mean they die of Covid. Nor that it’s unrelated.
Kilkenny, as he doesn’t understand the issue, is arguing about it for no reason. |
How do you know why i am arguing about it ?🤷â€â™‚ï¸ |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:30 - Jul 30 with 1074 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:03 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
You thinking someone else looks silly after the posts you’ve made this morning is genuinely funny.
Where would you say the cut off should be after someone has tested positive for Covid before they stop being automatically recorded as a Covid death in the statistics?
How long? You know, so you can record it accurately. |
You need to ask a doctor. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:39 - Jul 30 with 1073 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:39 - Jul 30 by londonlisa2001 |
Sigh. That’s the whole point. A blanket cut off is difficult for all those reasons.
England doesn’t cut off at all at present, which is ridiculous. The others cut off at 28 days which is also flawed.
Saying I’m wrong for pointing out exactly why it’s hard and then listing the reasons why it is hard is strange. |
Its almost like nobody at UK level had the foresight to realise the the standardisation of data collection is critical to decision making in a pandemic.
Who knew ?
With Dom now in charge of UK govt data, you can expect deliberate falsehoods. Yes the man from the ‘nudge unit‘ who was proven wrong but bullied the scientists into delaying an effective early lock down, has his grubby hands on more govt data.
Its almost like having unelected bureaucrats telling us what to do ... | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:47 - Jul 30 with 1068 views | Catullus |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:39 - Jul 30 by Kilkennyjack |
Its almost like nobody at UK level had the foresight to realise the the standardisation of data collection is critical to decision making in a pandemic.
Who knew ?
With Dom now in charge of UK govt data, you can expect deliberate falsehoods. Yes the man from the ‘nudge unit‘ who was proven wrong but bullied the scientists into delaying an effective early lock down, has his grubby hands on more govt data.
Its almost like having unelected bureaucrats telling us what to do ... |
When dealing with statistics you don't really need to lie, statistics can be used to say anything but the truth.
Standardising data is very difficult given the different demographics and different way of recording data in different countries. It'll take time and won't really be useful soon enough, again in my opinion.
We need people to be smarter and of course, we need reliable vaccines. The latter will happen one day, the former is a bit of a pipedream! | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:44 - Jul 30 with 1057 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:51 - Jul 30 by Professor |
But the death rate is not that relevant to the pressing need of controlling outbreaks. We can come up with a more precise figure retrospectively. What is important is detecting new infections and their contacts. I don’t get why Kilkenny is so aerated. England, Scotland and Wales (in that order) are in the European top 5 for deaths per 100,000. None have been very good. |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:34 - Jul 30 with 1027 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:44 - Jul 30 by Kilkennyjack |
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Notice any relationship between the tightend lockdown just announced in areas of north England and a religious festival? Just a clue, It may involve a community absolutely nowhere near as well represented in Wales.
That's the thing with stats, some people can twist them to suit their agenda. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:40 - Jul 30 with 1023 views | Andy1300 |
I can’t believe it!
Dippy Drakeford has followed England and advised to extend quarantine to 10 days |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:33 - Jul 30 with 1004 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:40 - Jul 30 by Andy1300 |
I can’t believe it!
Dippy Drakeford has followed England and advised to extend quarantine to 10 days |
He is right to do this. Stopping the virus spread should be in everyone's best interest. You only have to look at the position in the North West to see the folly of opening too early. They are now bringing in restrictions to a population larger than Wales. Whilst Wales had 9 new cases today England had over 5 times the amount proportionately. Even then it doesnt show the true position. Wrexham had 3 of the cases and 1 was unknown address also likely to be related to the plant there. That is 44 % of the Welsh figures. Other than Wrexham there were 5 cases. 1 each in Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Cardiff, Powys and Angelsey. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:51 - Jul 31 with 974 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:33 - Jul 30 by exhmrc1 |
He is right to do this. Stopping the virus spread should be in everyone's best interest. You only have to look at the position in the North West to see the folly of opening too early. They are now bringing in restrictions to a population larger than Wales. Whilst Wales had 9 new cases today England had over 5 times the amount proportionately. Even then it doesnt show the true position. Wrexham had 3 of the cases and 1 was unknown address also likely to be related to the plant there. That is 44 % of the Welsh figures. Other than Wrexham there were 5 cases. 1 each in Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Cardiff, Powys and Angelsey. |
He is absolutely correct to do this. If people are contagious they have to isolate.
Its not the "folly of opening too early" that has caused an increase in cases though. It is obvious from the new restrictions what has caused the problem. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:26 - Jul 31 with 956 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:51 - Jul 31 by Scotia |
He is absolutely correct to do this. If people are contagious they have to isolate.
Its not the "folly of opening too early" that has caused an increase in cases though. It is obvious from the new restrictions what has caused the problem. |
What has caused it then ?
Without ‘opening‘ then this does not happen ? Or does it ? | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:27 - Jul 31 with 954 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:33 - Jul 30 by exhmrc1 |
He is right to do this. Stopping the virus spread should be in everyone's best interest. You only have to look at the position in the North West to see the folly of opening too early. They are now bringing in restrictions to a population larger than Wales. Whilst Wales had 9 new cases today England had over 5 times the amount proportionately. Even then it doesnt show the true position. Wrexham had 3 of the cases and 1 was unknown address also likely to be related to the plant there. That is 44 % of the Welsh figures. Other than Wrexham there were 5 cases. 1 each in Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Cardiff, Powys and Angelsey. |
Lisa - please take note.
Wales is doing well, well done Professor Drakers. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:41 - Jul 31 with 953 views | Catullus |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:51 - Jul 31 by Scotia |
He is absolutely correct to do this. If people are contagious they have to isolate.
Its not the "folly of opening too early" that has caused an increase in cases though. It is obvious from the new restrictions what has caused the problem. |
Surely if we/they hadn't opened up then this rise in cases wouldn't have happened?
The extension to 10 days is a bit late. In the beginning no one seemed very sure of the incubation period or how long people are contagious for. Seems to me it's still guesswork.
Still though, they think you are contagious for 9 days, it seems to me a 10 day isolation is too little. It's not a big enough safety margin for a virus that continues to surprise.
Thgen again, maybe I'm just too dumb to understand. | |
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