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Drakeford wants it, devo max, go Federal, whatever you want to call it. His speech said a lot but was very light on detail. It was full of optimistic generalisations without saying much at all. It is obvious now why the Labour party wanted to give the vote to 16/17 year olds, they are targettting them at the next election with this home rule demand because they know young people are more likley to support it, or independence. This change in the voting laws was nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with tilting the vote in their favour but maybe it'll backfire and those youngsters will vote Plaid?
That aside, whn will we hear details? When will Drakeford give us the opportunity to weight up his plans? He has also said more than once he won't serve a full term if he wins, that most likely means we'll have Gething foisted on us...from frying pan into the fire then. Can we vote for a party when we know the leader isn't interested in doing the term? Certainly people didn't like it when we had Bojo foisted on us, plenty said we didn'tvote for him and said it wasn't democratic.
exactly you quoted the ONS figures. I dont agree with them and I would have thought it pretty clear to anyone that I believe the PHW fIgures are more accurate. The PHW figures include POSITIVE tests from Hospitals and Care Homes. The ONS use POSITIVE and SUSPECTED deaths from Hospitals, Care Homes and at home. It is clear that the SUSPECTED deaths make up nearly 1/3 of the ONS fIgures in Wales. It is highly likely that 1/3 of home tests dont have a positive test so the actual home deaths are likely to be closer to 200 but just to show how much nonsense you are talking I have let you have your ONS figure of home deaths.
The reality is that the ONS has more than 2000 more covid deaths than the excess deaths. This is usually considered the most accurate reflection and is very close to the PHW figures. Each year will fluctuate slightly but not to the degree you want. The figures will be slightly lower this year as there has been very few Flu deaths but then there isnt that many every year. Nowhere near the amounts included in your figures which are clearly excessive and for the reasons already provided. The Excess deaths includes all deaths from all settings.
You can believe whatever nonsense you want to. It has been absolutely clear from all your postings that anything you can find to try and make the Welsh Government look bad you will and will dispute whatever Mark Drakeford does.
However even if you dont believe the PHW and other governments figures the excess deaths dont lie and show there are far less deaths than you think.
[Post edited 9 Mar 2021 21:00]
The hole in your argument is the excess deaths you keep using. We know that deaths from other respiratory causes have dropped significantly. That means fewer deaths than in an average year yet the average year figures are what they use to decide excess deaths. That is why the covid figures are more than the excess death figures. Hardly anybody has died of flu this flu season.
If not for covid there would be fewer deaths than in a "normal" year, there would be no excess numbers if we removed covid cases. Obvioulsy you say excess death numbers are more accurate because you like them, you think they back up your argument. You still say not that many flu deaths every year, the Uk figure averages about 17000 annually,
The hole in your argument is the excess deaths you keep using. We know that deaths from other respiratory causes have dropped significantly. That means fewer deaths than in an average year yet the average year figures are what they use to decide excess deaths. That is why the covid figures are more than the excess death figures. Hardly anybody has died of flu this flu season.
If not for covid there would be fewer deaths than in a "normal" year, there would be no excess numbers if we removed covid cases. Obvioulsy you say excess death numbers are more accurate because you like them, you think they back up your argument. You still say not that many flu deaths every year, the Uk figure averages about 17000 annually,
This last flu season it's below 15000 and about 3000 less than last flu season.
The truth is the UK had 394 cases of death from Flu through the 2020 flu season before the covid cases took off. It isnt going to have a major effect on the Welsh figures. Based on a pro rate basis under 20. Pneumonia deaths would hardly have changed.
Between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to Covid-19 compared to 13,600 from pneumonia. Only 394 were due to flu.
The truth is the UK had 394 cases of death from Flu through the 2020 flu season before the covid cases took off. It isnt going to have a major effect on the Welsh figures. Based on a pro rate basis under 20. Pneumonia deaths would hardly have changed.
Between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to Covid-19 compared to 13,600 from pneumonia. Only 394 were due to flu.
394 cases instead of the usual thousands, without covid fewer people would have died than in an average year. This is why the covid deaths figure is higher than the excess deaths.
We can expect excess death figures to rise in the future as the problems caused by the shutting down of most other medical treatments starts to show it's effects. How many cancer victims have yet to be diagnosed I dread to think.
PS, what do you think of Drakefords documentary? Not very statemanlike to film a government meeting without informing the others, nor to be caught on camera saying nasty things about Bojo. Of course he was right, Bojo is awful but it still shouldn't have happened.
394 cases instead of the usual thousands, without covid fewer people would have died than in an average year. This is why the covid deaths figure is higher than the excess deaths.
We can expect excess death figures to rise in the future as the problems caused by the shutting down of most other medical treatments starts to show it's effects. How many cancer victims have yet to be diagnosed I dread to think.
PS, what do you think of Drakefords documentary? Not very statemanlike to film a government meeting without informing the others, nor to be caught on camera saying nasty things about Bojo. Of course he was right, Bojo is awful but it still shouldn't have happened.
As for your last paragraph I havent seen it so wont comment. I have read the comment about Johnson but that is all I know but there is no surprise about that.
Flu tends to occur between the second week of Jan and end of Feb each year and coronavirus wasn't here then so the figures of flu would not have been affected by the virus. Tens of deaths are typical every year in Wales. The figures would probably be lower for the last 2 months for several reasons. Schools closed preventing spread. Lockdown having a similar effect, higher flu vaccination figures in the at risk categories and the vaccination programme extended this year to over 50s instead of over 65s.
However even if there are no deaths from flu this year it wont have a major impact. 394 was the UK figure. Likely 1/20 or so of that would be in Wales so it would reduce excess deaths by 20. There isnt thousands of flu deaths every year just tens.
I dont know how much the deaths will rise due to other illnesses and I dont think anyone does. I doubt the numbers will prove that great and think it is likely to be in double figures although it could be triple figures.
The reality is that urgent treatment hasnt been stopped. I have been called during the pandemic for a heart scan and also a CT scan over a lump on my pancreas. My mate who had bowel cancer had a colonoscopy in Singleton in October. My wife's friend who is quite advanced with cancer has been going though chemotherapy recently.
There may be some who have had cancer who weren't diagnosed but I doubt they will prove to be huge although every death is a tragedy.
That isn't what that says, it relates to disease severity not the variant distribution - in fact it confirms the variant was widespread in SE England but not elsewhere?
The last paragraph gives it away. Look:-
King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold.
Stop banging on about this. You are clearly wrong. Move on.
Read the last paragraph again. You are wrong. Again.
Read the last paragraph again. You are wrong. Again.
Seriously. I'll post it again.
"King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold."
Can you tell me what on earth you think it means? Because I think it says it was more widespread in the SE.
"King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold."
Can you tell me what on earth you think it means? Because I think it says it was more widespread in the SE.
It is basically saying that they have researched it and found there was no difference between the South East of England compared to the North Of England despite the South having the Kent variant and the North not. That is despite you continually trying to make out the difference between England and Wales over the last 3 months is because of the Kent virus. Even since it has become clear the Kent virus is the dominant one in Wales as well the English figures are higher. This is down to Drakeford acting decisively by locking down earlier than Johnson did in England. That is the real reason for the lower figures in Wales.
It is basically saying that they have researched it and found there was no difference between the South East of England compared to the North Of England despite the South having the Kent variant and the North not. That is despite you continually trying to make out the difference between England and Wales over the last 3 months is because of the Kent virus. Even since it has become clear the Kent virus is the dominant one in Wales as well the English figures are higher. This is down to Drakeford acting decisively by locking down earlier than Johnson did in England. That is the real reason for the lower figures in Wales.
It is basically saying that they have researched it and found there was no difference between the South East of England compared to the North Of England despite the South having the Kent variant and the North not. That is despite you continually trying to make out the difference between England and Wales over the last 3 months is because of the Kent virus. Even since it has become clear the Kent virus is the dominant one in Wales as well the English figures are higher. This is down to Drakeford acting decisively by locking down earlier than Johnson did in England. That is the real reason for the lower figures in Wales.
Listen to the lyrics taxi. And the rest of you from a contemporary musical genius
I can't see the common sense in that decision, and so much for following science.
Oh and we aren't going to get an idea of what is going to happen beyond the end of April.
The less power these clowns have got the better.
Interestingly the policy is backed by Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems in Wales. The only part that doesnt is the Conservative Party backed by you.
Most people including Boris Johnson think we should be guided by data not dates. Yet he then puts dates to appease his back benchers. Nobody knows where will be in a week let alone a month or longer.
A careful approach and not misleading people is the right approach and supported by most people as the polls show.
It is basically saying that they have researched it and found there was no difference between the South East of England compared to the North Of England despite the South having the Kent variant and the North not. That is despite you continually trying to make out the difference between England and Wales over the last 3 months is because of the Kent virus. Even since it has become clear the Kent virus is the dominant one in Wales as well the English figures are higher. This is down to Drakeford acting decisively by locking down earlier than Johnson did in England. That is the real reason for the lower figures in Wales.
No it's not.
It's saying the disease is no worse by either variant. They could compare because the Kent variant was not the dominant strain outside of the SE.
It is not disputed that the Kent variant is more infectious or that it was dominant in the SE moreso than elsewhere.
Interestingly the policy is backed by Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems in Wales. The only part that doesnt is the Conservative Party backed by you.
Most people including Boris Johnson think we should be guided by data not dates. Yet he then puts dates to appease his back benchers. Nobody knows where will be in a week let alone a month or longer.
A careful approach and not misleading people is the right approach and supported by most people as the polls show.
Rhun Ap Iorwerth called for a dated plan on the BBC after the press conference, as did the Tory bloke. So you're wrong Plaid Cymru do not support this policy.
The lib dems are in government in Wales, so they're under the whip. Oh and there's only one of them.
Johnson has repeatedly said that the dates are the earliest possible in their plan, as has Sturgeon in the Scottish plan. There is nothing wrong with that, we've been in this long enough to know things change. If Drakeford had done similar you'd applaud it, as would I.
The Northern Ireland plan does not have dates, but seems reasonable and at least it exists.
We don't even have a plan beyond the next 3 weeks. Worryingly I don't think there is one.
That isn't what that says, it relates to disease severity not the variant distribution - in fact it confirms the variant was widespread in SE England but not elsewhere?
The last paragraph gives it away. Look:-
King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold.
Stop banging on about this. You are clearly wrong. Move on.
Here is evidence it was in Wales in November before it was officially announced in the UK.
Public Health Wales say experts first identified a sample of the strain in North Wales in November.
It is basically saying that they have researched it and found there was no difference between the South East of England compared to the North Of England despite the South having the Kent variant and the North not. That is despite you continually trying to make out the difference between England and Wales over the last 3 months is because of the Kent virus. Even since it has become clear the Kent virus is the dominant one in Wales as well the English figures are higher. This is down to Drakeford acting decisively by locking down earlier than Johnson did in England. That is the real reason for the lower figures in Wales.
Drakeford has treated us like children, as I've said previously.
Some people clearly need to be, but we aren't all that stupid.
The whole UK has followed what you have asked for. It lead to us ending up back in lockdown. Perhaps it might be time to a more careful approach. If you listen to idiots like this anyone would think Wales is the country not looking to open shops until Mid April at the earliest. There is a major problem with opening shops now. Look what happened after the firebreak lockdown where Cardiff was absolutely crammed with shoppers many of whom came here from England and it is likely the same will happen this time.
Perhaps Drakeford should announce shops will open on the same date as England along with our tourist accommodation who would then lose Easter trade. I am sure these people being reported will thank him for doing so.
The whole UK has followed what you have asked for. It lead to us ending up back in lockdown. Perhaps it might be time to a more careful approach. If you listen to idiots like this anyone would think Wales is the country not looking to open shops until Mid April at the earliest. There is a major problem with opening shops now. Look what happened after the firebreak lockdown where Cardiff was absolutely crammed with shoppers many of whom came here from England and it is likely the same will happen this time.
Perhaps Drakeford should announce shops will open on the same date as England along with our tourist accommodation who would then lose Easter trade. I am sure these people being reported will thank him for doing so.
The entire point is that we don't know what approach we are following. Nobody in Wales does.
The English, N. Irish and Scottish all do.
I'd be completely behind following the English approach, Prof Vallance has said it is "broadly" as recommend by SAGE and Scotland are following a similar approach. That seems reasonable.
The entire point is that we don't know what approach we are following. Nobody in Wales does.
The English, N. Irish and Scottish all do.
I'd be completely behind following the English approach, Prof Vallance has said it is "broadly" as recommend by SAGE and Scotland are following a similar approach. That seems reasonable.
Of course you would back Johnson's approach. You have throughout. You did last year when he was opening everything. You kept criticising Drakeford for not opening pubs, gyms and borders and it was these policies that led to the flood of cases and subsequent lockdown.
You continually fail to recognise that Wales only had a 2 week firebreak as against 4 in England so England were in lockdown longer. We in Wales are starting to come out of lockdown sooner and will hopefully open more things over the next 3 weeks.
You say we dont have a plan to come out of lockdown but the evidence is there showing we do. There will be an announcement tomorrow that all primary school will open next week and all schools will be open after easter. What is this but a plan. There will probably be an announcement tomorrow that visiting will be allowed in care homes. Isnt that a plan. It will probably be announced tomorrow shops will be opening. Isnt that a plan and it is likely tourist accommodation will open for easter. Yet another plank of a plan.
What you really want is announcement on when risky things will open. The Deputy Chief Medical officer for Wales has already stated that in his belief it is highly unlikely nightclubs will be able to open in June. Vaughan Gething has already expressed his concern at flights being allowed again after what happened from August onwards.
Despite your comments yesterday about Rhun ap Iorwerth he didnt say that. I show below part of his reply to me today on the subject
"I’ve said that I believe it’s hard to say what should happen on a specific date months from now".
Clearly he doesnt believe in the kind of plan you do. He will also act with total caution. In fact, the only people who support your plan are the Tory party parts 1 and 2 and that is despite Johnson stating he would be guided by data not dates. If you are being guided by data you dont need dates.
Of course you would back Johnson's approach. You have throughout. You did last year when he was opening everything. You kept criticising Drakeford for not opening pubs, gyms and borders and it was these policies that led to the flood of cases and subsequent lockdown.
You continually fail to recognise that Wales only had a 2 week firebreak as against 4 in England so England were in lockdown longer. We in Wales are starting to come out of lockdown sooner and will hopefully open more things over the next 3 weeks.
You say we dont have a plan to come out of lockdown but the evidence is there showing we do. There will be an announcement tomorrow that all primary school will open next week and all schools will be open after easter. What is this but a plan. There will probably be an announcement tomorrow that visiting will be allowed in care homes. Isnt that a plan. It will probably be announced tomorrow shops will be opening. Isnt that a plan and it is likely tourist accommodation will open for easter. Yet another plank of a plan.
What you really want is announcement on when risky things will open. The Deputy Chief Medical officer for Wales has already stated that in his belief it is highly unlikely nightclubs will be able to open in June. Vaughan Gething has already expressed his concern at flights being allowed again after what happened from August onwards.
Despite your comments yesterday about Rhun ap Iorwerth he didnt say that. I show below part of his reply to me today on the subject
"I’ve said that I believe it’s hard to say what should happen on a specific date months from now".
Clearly he doesnt believe in the kind of plan you do. He will also act with total caution. In fact, the only people who support your plan are the Tory party parts 1 and 2 and that is despite Johnson stating he would be guided by data not dates. If you are being guided by data you dont need dates.
I'm going to pick on a couple of I expect answers too.
1. You continually fail to recognise that Wales only had a 2 week firebreak as against 4 in England so England were in lockdown longer.
Where have I failed to recognise this?
2. You say we dont have a plan to come out of lockdown but the evidence is there showing we do.
Where is this evidence? There will be announcement tomorrow? Are you a seer? How does this glimpse in to the future enable pupils and parents too plan for their return.
3. Despite your comments yesterday about Rhun ap Iorwerth he didnt say that.
Yes he did, a little more than 24 hrs ago. I saw and heard him. Prove me wrong.
4. He will also act with total caution.
By potentially (And we don't know yet, see point 2) opening close contact service on Monday? That is caution?
I'll be honest I'm getting fed up with this, it's like talking to a particularly thick wall.
I'm going to pick on a couple of I expect answers too.
1. You continually fail to recognise that Wales only had a 2 week firebreak as against 4 in England so England were in lockdown longer.
Where have I failed to recognise this?
2. You say we dont have a plan to come out of lockdown but the evidence is there showing we do.
Where is this evidence? There will be announcement tomorrow? Are you a seer? How does this glimpse in to the future enable pupils and parents too plan for their return.
3. Despite your comments yesterday about Rhun ap Iorwerth he didnt say that.
Yes he did, a little more than 24 hrs ago. I saw and heard him. Prove me wrong.
4. He will also act with total caution.
By potentially (And we don't know yet, see point 2) opening close contact service on Monday? That is caution?
I'll be honest I'm getting fed up with this, it's like talking to a particularly thick wall.
Ministers have openly stated it was the plan to open all primary schools and exam years. Kirsty Williams clearly stated that on Monday. Vaughan Gething made it clear that they were looking to move from stay at home to some form of stay local yesterday. You commented on that yesterday. Mark Drakeford has previously said that they were looking to open some shops and also open tourism by easter if circumstances allow. You continually ignore these things like everything else because it doesnt meet your anti Drakeford right wing agenda.
I saw the interview with Rhun Ap Iorwerth and he didnt say what you claimed as has been outlined in the email he replied with. He doesnt believe you can make plans ahead as things are so uncertain.
Ministers have openly stated it was the plan to open all primary schools and exam years. Kirsty Williams clearly stated that on Monday. Vaughan Gething made it clear that they were looking to move from stay at home to some form of stay local yesterday. You commented on that yesterday. Mark Drakeford has previously said that they were looking to open some shops and also open tourism by easter if circumstances allow. You continually ignore these things like everything else because it doesnt meet your anti Drakeford right wing agenda.
I saw the interview with Rhun Ap Iorwerth and he didnt say what you claimed as has been outlined in the email he replied with. He doesnt believe you can make plans ahead as things are so uncertain.
Knowing Drakeford's logic, he'll open up tourism with travel restrictions of 5 miles.
Open pubs, but ban them selling alcohol.
Open non essential shops (see 5 mile rule)
Two families from the same bubble can meet one family from another bubble who haven't been vaccinated, but can meet 3 families from another bubble that have been vaccinated. These will be known as "huge bubbles" alternatively, 2 huge bubbles can meet out doors provided they don't exceed 15 people (25 if vaccinated).
All schools will reopen after Easter, but for pupils only, and if after a period of time new infection rates fall below our criteria, we will allow teachers to return.
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