| All this Budget Speculation 23:28 - Oct 18 with 65724 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
The plan seems to be to raise taxes like IHT and Capital Gains and maybe on Non-Doms etc. whilst changing the rules to borrow more.
There a realistic risk here, if the tax income does not increase as planned, the very rich can work their way around these increases, and if growth is slow then the cost of borrowing increases as bond rates will go up as confidence is lost in the money markets and we will have a slow burn Liz Truss effect.
With all that is happening in the World having some gold makes a lot of sense right now. |  |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 12:15 - Aug 19 with 2897 views | Dr_Winston |
Like night follows day.
You will never convince Socialists that high tax policies are ultimately self defeating. If they were capable of understanding that then they wouldn't be Socialists.
As has been said before, the best tax rates are the ones that people are happy to pay. Raise them too much and people will work harder to avoid them and income decreases. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 12:33 - Aug 19 with 2876 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 12:15 - Aug 19 by Dr_Winston |
Like night follows day.
You will never convince Socialists that high tax policies are ultimately self defeating. If they were capable of understanding that then they wouldn't be Socialists.
As has been said before, the best tax rates are the ones that people are happy to pay. Raise them too much and people will work harder to avoid them and income decreases. |
Well the £20 billion (actually £9 billion) black hole is now £50 billion despite " fixing the foundations" in the last budget. What people don't understand is that very rich people and business have options, particularly in a globalised economy.
300,000 euros gets you a passport in Portugal, a lower tax regime and access to EU countries. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 15:42 - Aug 26 with 2557 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
30 year bond rates at 28 year high, something has to give I'm afraid. Reeves will put up taxes but it's too late, we have huge amounts of debt, a growing deficit and record levels of interest. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 16:35 - Aug 26 with 2533 views | Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
| All this Budget Speculation on 12:15 - Aug 19 by Dr_Winston |
Like night follows day.
You will never convince Socialists that high tax policies are ultimately self defeating. If they were capable of understanding that then they wouldn't be Socialists.
As has been said before, the best tax rates are the ones that people are happy to pay. Raise them too much and people will work harder to avoid them and income decreases. |
And if people have more disposable income they generally go out and spend more and more money will pour into the treasury naturally.
You don’t need to squeeze people til the pips squeak. Achieving growth isn’t difficult when people can afford to spend money. |  |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 17:10 - Aug 26 with 2521 views | AnotherJohn |
| All this Budget Speculation on 15:42 - Aug 26 by JACKMANANDBOY |
30 year bond rates at 28 year high, something has to give I'm afraid. Reeves will put up taxes but it's too late, we have huge amounts of debt, a growing deficit and record levels of interest. |
Economists are writing about a "moron premium". Some are even claiming that an IMF style bail-out may be on the horizon. Our gilt rates are the highest in the G7 and that is saying something.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/borrowing-costs-surge-as-britain-faces-mor
France has a huge and growing deficit and national debt. Italy is not much better. Germany has been in recession and Merz is saying that the welfare state can't be afforded in its present form. These countries have the same problem as the UK, in that the left-leaning parties and the unions are unwilling to accept cuts in social welfare spending. These three plus the UK are the European countries with the highest immigration numbers in recent years, so that has not fixed the problem. Was Milton Freidman right when he said you can have a welfare state or you can have free immigration, but not both? |  | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:28 - Aug 26 with 2512 views | AnotherJohn |
Forgot to add that the report I cited suggests that our own MP, Mr Torsten Bell, is now a key player determining economic policy. With his background I cannot see Bell clamping down on the back-benchers who think that a wealth tax will solve all our problems, and that we can do things such as funding the latest public sector pay demands in full, restoring ODA to its previous level, and supporting everyone reaching our shores whose home country has treated them badly. | | | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 18:30 - Aug 26 with 2469 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:28 - Aug 26 by AnotherJohn |
Forgot to add that the report I cited suggests that our own MP, Mr Torsten Bell, is now a key player determining economic policy. With his background I cannot see Bell clamping down on the back-benchers who think that a wealth tax will solve all our problems, and that we can do things such as funding the latest public sector pay demands in full, restoring ODA to its previous level, and supporting everyone reaching our shores whose home country has treated them badly. |
Starmer will do his usual, a fudged compromise that actually changes very little. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 08:26 - Aug 28 with 2353 views | AnotherJohn |
| All this Budget Speculation on 17:28 - Aug 26 by AnotherJohn |
Forgot to add that the report I cited suggests that our own MP, Mr Torsten Bell, is now a key player determining economic policy. With his background I cannot see Bell clamping down on the back-benchers who think that a wealth tax will solve all our problems, and that we can do things such as funding the latest public sector pay demands in full, restoring ODA to its previous level, and supporting everyone reaching our shores whose home country has treated them badly. |
Regarding Bell's role in advising Reeves on possible budget changes, it should be noted that the possibility of imposing NI on landlord's rental income now being floated is a Resolution Foundation policy proposed when he was Chief Exec. I can't see how this would not be passed on to tenants in increased rents. It is sobering to look at other tax rises proposed by the Resolution Foundation during Bell's time with them. I wonder if some of these are in the pipeline. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 07:18 - Aug 29 with 2260 views | Dr_Winston |
He's a dangerous idiot. The worst kind of upper middle class Socialist with no actual employment history in a proper job, absolutely no idea how the real world works, but a burning desire to tax the hell out of it anyway. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 09:18 - Aug 29 with 2235 views | Whiterockin |
| All this Budget Speculation on 08:26 - Aug 28 by AnotherJohn |
Regarding Bell's role in advising Reeves on possible budget changes, it should be noted that the possibility of imposing NI on landlord's rental income now being floated is a Resolution Foundation policy proposed when he was Chief Exec. I can't see how this would not be passed on to tenants in increased rents. It is sobering to look at other tax rises proposed by the Resolution Foundation during Bell's time with them. I wonder if some of these are in the pipeline. |
I do not have any rental properties but the NI proposal would be a nightmare to enforce. Don't those of pensionable age no longer pay NI on earnings? How would it also work if a rental was joint owned by a parent and child with the parent retired? It seems another ill thought out proposal. |  | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 13:43 - Aug 29 with 2177 views | AnotherJohn |
Here is a report about the worries over the economy of Sir Simon Clarke, a former chief secretary to the Treasury. Scroll down to see his original article. It won't be news to regular posters who sense a looming crisis, but is a handy summary that people who think our worries are "ideological" can challenge.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/unsustainable-welfare-system-on-course-to- | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 15:31 - Aug 29 with 2128 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 09:18 - Aug 29 by Whiterockin |
I do not have any rental properties but the NI proposal would be a nightmare to enforce. Don't those of pensionable age no longer pay NI on earnings? How would it also work if a rental was joint owned by a parent and child with the parent retired? It seems another ill thought out proposal. |
Rich people who own a number of properties will shelter them inside a company. People with one or two renters will put up the rent or sell up.
The expected tax take will be below expectations. I had an interesting conversation with a friend last week. He's been successful in building up a business and has sold his company as he reaches his retirement, he is still working as a consultant to the purchasers of his business. What was interesting was that he said for the first time in his life, he is now actively looking at ways to avoid tax. | |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 08:36 - Aug 30 with 2066 views | AnotherJohn |
Just to add another piece to the jigsaw, Starmer has hired Baroness Minouche Shafik to join his economic policy team. In the past she worked with Torsten Bell and chaired the Resolution Foundation’s “Economy 2030 Inquiry”. Since then she briefly served as deputy governor of the Bank of England, and then went to the USA to take up a post as President of Columbia University. That ended badly in August last year after criticism of her handling of pro-Palestine protests on campus and tolerance of anti-Semitism. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 12:54 - Aug 30 with 2007 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| All this Budget Speculation on 08:36 - Aug 30 by AnotherJohn |
Just to add another piece to the jigsaw, Starmer has hired Baroness Minouche Shafik to join his economic policy team. In the past she worked with Torsten Bell and chaired the Resolution Foundation’s “Economy 2030 Inquiry”. Since then she briefly served as deputy governor of the Bank of England, and then went to the USA to take up a post as President of Columbia University. That ended badly in August last year after criticism of her handling of pro-Palestine protests on campus and tolerance of anti-Semitism. |
What to expect, there's an executive summary in here. We are already seeing some of the policies from this Government, personally I am very worried about the assumptions that are made about small business. There is not an appreciation of the overall trading environment.
It is interesting that they expect only richer people to have EVs and that they will have to pay a mileage charge in the future, equivalent to fuel duty that poorer people will pay on petrol!
https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/ending-stagnation/ [Post edited 30 Aug 13:34]
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| All this Budget Speculation on 14:52 - Sep 2 with 1818 views | Whiterockin |
She should never have been given the job. Along with Starmer they have ensured Labour are unelectable for at least 20 years. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:24 - Sep 2 with 1754 views | SullutaCreturned |
| All this Budget Speculation on 14:52 - Sep 2 by Whiterockin |
She should never have been given the job. Along with Starmer they have ensured Labour are unelectable for at least 20 years. |
I don't know about 20 years. That will largely depend on who wins the next election and what kind of job they do.
Imagine if you will a Reform victory at the enxt GE and they turn out to be a bigger disaster than Labour or Tory combined, then the other 2 turn out to be electable again in ot even 10 years.
Of course Reform could be a massive success but I won't hold my breath. If they were then they'd be a shoo in at the next GE again. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:27 - Sep 2 with 1746 views | Whiterockin |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:24 - Sep 2 by SullutaCreturned |
I don't know about 20 years. That will largely depend on who wins the next election and what kind of job they do.
Imagine if you will a Reform victory at the enxt GE and they turn out to be a bigger disaster than Labour or Tory combined, then the other 2 turn out to be electable again in ot even 10 years.
Of course Reform could be a massive success but I won't hold my breath. If they were then they'd be a shoo in at the next GE again. |
Can you see the Conservatives getting in any time soon I can't ditto Labour. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 06:58 - Sep 3 with 1687 views | Dr_Winston |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:27 - Sep 2 by Whiterockin |
Can you see the Conservatives getting in any time soon I can't ditto Labour. |
It all depends on what kind of job Reform do if they win power.
The way public opinion seems to be shifting on a lot of things suggests that the kinds of policies favoured by Labour since 1997 and carried on by subsequent Goverments will find little favour amongst the population.
For decades Labour have ignored the fact that despite vast swathes of working class people voting for them, working class people also tend to be small "c" Conservative in their general outlook on life. They dislike crime, they dislike high immigration, they dislike paying loads of tax and they quite like the idea of being able to leave a few quid to their kids. They want Government services, but they dislike too much Government control. Of their actions, of their thoughts, of their lives.
The more and more Labour double down on policies that run contrary to that, the more chance they have of losing those voters for good.
The Tories whizzed on their support with their OTT response to Covid, allied to the previous ten years of basically just being an extension of New Labour. Now nobody trusts them to actually be Conservative and have shifted their votes to a party that promises right wing policies. [Post edited 3 Sep 8:16]
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| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| All this Budget Speculation on 20:42 - Sep 3 with 1607 views | SullutaCreturned |
| All this Budget Speculation on 06:58 - Sep 3 by Dr_Winston |
It all depends on what kind of job Reform do if they win power.
The way public opinion seems to be shifting on a lot of things suggests that the kinds of policies favoured by Labour since 1997 and carried on by subsequent Goverments will find little favour amongst the population.
For decades Labour have ignored the fact that despite vast swathes of working class people voting for them, working class people also tend to be small "c" Conservative in their general outlook on life. They dislike crime, they dislike high immigration, they dislike paying loads of tax and they quite like the idea of being able to leave a few quid to their kids. They want Government services, but they dislike too much Government control. Of their actions, of their thoughts, of their lives.
The more and more Labour double down on policies that run contrary to that, the more chance they have of losing those voters for good.
The Tories whizzed on their support with their OTT response to Covid, allied to the previous ten years of basically just being an extension of New Labour. Now nobody trusts them to actually be Conservative and have shifted their votes to a party that promises right wing policies. [Post edited 3 Sep 8:16]
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Exactly. AND if Reform do a really bad job then people will look elsehwere to vote again and what other choices do they have, Labour or Tory. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:51 - Sep 3 with 1590 views | Whiterockin |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:42 - Sep 3 by SullutaCreturned |
Exactly. AND if Reform do a really bad job then people will look elsehwere to vote again and what other choices do they have, Labour or Tory. |
I expect the Greens to start making small gains in England, Plaid are a real threat to Labour and Conservative in Wales and the Liberals could do something. People really have had enough and could turn anywhere. Today's little escapade and Starmer backing her has done Labour no favours. | | | |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:57 - Sep 3 with 1571 views | Dr_Winston |
| All this Budget Speculation on 20:51 - Sep 3 by Whiterockin |
I expect the Greens to start making small gains in England, Plaid are a real threat to Labour and Conservative in Wales and the Liberals could do something. People really have had enough and could turn anywhere. Today's little escapade and Starmer backing her has done Labour no favours. |
The left will fracture. The left always fractures. Too many opportunities to slag each other off for not being ideologically pure enough. Jezbollah have started arguing amongst themselves already. Labour, The Greens, and whoever else is on the left will just find themselves fighting over a diminishing pool of voters.
Unity used to be a Tory thing, but now they're basically doing the same with many shifting to Reform and eventually whatever Rupert Lowe ends up doing with Elon Musk's money.
Wales could end up largely split between Plaid and Reform, which would make things interesting if nothing else. Scotland might actually go more Lib Dem. They're fed up of Labour and the SNP. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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