| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:19 - Dec 20 with 942 views | Professor |
There was a lot more to that conversation. The LSHTM and Warwick models are pretty realistic in 1000 to 3000 hospitalisations per day. Since we are already pushing towards 1 million cases per week in the U.K. and double that is certainly possible .
Whilst it seems Omicron is somewhere between 30-60% less virulent than Delta the sheer numbers may see these levels in January. The Imperial model is, however,
Certainly over-egged. We will start to know next week realistically what the impact of Omicron is.
The booster programme will undoubtedly save many lives.
The concern is that waiting a week may be disastrous. Both in public health terms and ending up with far harsher restrictions |  | |  |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:04 - Dec 20 with 901 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:19 - Dec 20 by Professor |
There was a lot more to that conversation. The LSHTM and Warwick models are pretty realistic in 1000 to 3000 hospitalisations per day. Since we are already pushing towards 1 million cases per week in the U.K. and double that is certainly possible .
Whilst it seems Omicron is somewhere between 30-60% less virulent than Delta the sheer numbers may see these levels in January. The Imperial model is, however,
Certainly over-egged. We will start to know next week realistically what the impact of Omicron is.
The booster programme will undoubtedly save many lives.
The concern is that waiting a week may be disastrous. Both in public health terms and ending up with far harsher restrictions |
I'd be interested to know what else was said. I learned many years ago that eliminating the null hypothesis is the basis of good data based decision making, including good modelling. |  |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:18 - Dec 20 with 894 views | Catullus |
Isn't the model only as good as the data going into it? if there is data missing or its flawed then the model is useless. I've been reading that Fergusons data is flawed.
There is always an alternative hypothesis! | |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:31 - Dec 20 with 876 views | Flynnidine_Zidownes |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:18 - Dec 20 by Catullus |
Isn't the model only as good as the data going into it? if there is data missing or its flawed then the model is useless. I've been reading that Fergusons data is flawed.
There is always an alternative hypothesis! |
It’s pretty much as accurate as weather forecasting. They can use the data they are receiving to confidently predict that next Saturday will be a gloriously sunny day, over 35 degrees with a slight cooling breeze coming in from the south west. However between now and next Saturday an unlimited number of variables could affect the various weather systems so they can’t rule out minus 8, intermittent hail storms and biblical lightning with a icy cold gale coming in from the urals either.
We mortal humans have often tried to prognosticate these things and nearly always fail miserably. | | | |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:37 - Dec 20 with 864 views | 73__73 |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:19 - Dec 20 by Professor |
There was a lot more to that conversation. The LSHTM and Warwick models are pretty realistic in 1000 to 3000 hospitalisations per day. Since we are already pushing towards 1 million cases per week in the U.K. and double that is certainly possible .
Whilst it seems Omicron is somewhere between 30-60% less virulent than Delta the sheer numbers may see these levels in January. The Imperial model is, however,
Certainly over-egged. We will start to know next week realistically what the impact of Omicron is.
The booster programme will undoubtedly save many lives.
The concern is that waiting a week may be disastrous. Both in public health terms and ending up with far harsher restrictions |
Certainly possible, you say.
It also certainly possible that ET will land tomorrow, but just like the modelling we all know it’s bullshit. | |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:37 - Dec 20 with 868 views | Catullus |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 19:31 - Dec 20 by Flynnidine_Zidownes |
It’s pretty much as accurate as weather forecasting. They can use the data they are receiving to confidently predict that next Saturday will be a gloriously sunny day, over 35 degrees with a slight cooling breeze coming in from the south west. However between now and next Saturday an unlimited number of variables could affect the various weather systems so they can’t rule out minus 8, intermittent hail storms and biblical lightning with a icy cold gale coming in from the urals either.
We mortal humans have often tried to prognosticate these things and nearly always fail miserably. |
I've listened to weather forecasts telling me it's going to be a dry day while looking out the window at the rain! | |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 15:02 - Dec 22 with 771 views | controversial_jack |
Computer modelling is so inaccurate, climate change forecasts have shown that | | | |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:39 - Dec 22 with 728 views | majorraglan |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 15:02 - Dec 22 by controversial_jack |
Computer modelling is so inaccurate, climate change forecasts have shown that |
Modelling will generally predict a worse and best case scenario and generally anything between the ranges is possible. There are so many variables which can impact on the trends and trajectories it does make it a bit unpredictable, but it’s the best we have and it lets people have an idea. | | | |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:42 - Dec 22 with 725 views | controversial_jack |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:39 - Dec 22 by majorraglan |
Modelling will generally predict a worse and best case scenario and generally anything between the ranges is possible. There are so many variables which can impact on the trends and trajectories it does make it a bit unpredictable, but it’s the best we have and it lets people have an idea. |
We may as well guess | | | |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 21:08 - Dec 22 with 695 views | Dr_Winston |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 18:39 - Dec 22 by majorraglan |
Modelling will generally predict a worse and best case scenario and generally anything between the ranges is possible. There are so many variables which can impact on the trends and trajectories it does make it a bit unpredictable, but it’s the best we have and it lets people have an idea. |
Problem is when Governments exclusively plan their response around the worst case. When it transpires that it's not that bad really the Govt loses credibility and the Moonbats claiming that there's nothing wrong gain strength. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 23:11 - Dec 22 with 657 views | Treforys_Jack |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 21:08 - Dec 22 by Dr_Winston |
Problem is when Governments exclusively plan their response around the worst case. When it transpires that it's not that bad really the Govt loses credibility and the Moonbats claiming that there's nothing wrong gain strength. |
"Moonbats" my new favorite word.  |  | | |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 08:15 - Dec 23 with 633 views | Dr_Winston |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 23:11 - Dec 22 by Treforys_Jack |
"Moonbats" my new favorite word. |
Use it wisely my child. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 08:35 - Dec 23 with 614 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| SAGE Modelling - Why it falls short. on 21:08 - Dec 22 by Dr_Winston |
Problem is when Governments exclusively plan their response around the worst case. When it transpires that it's not that bad really the Govt loses credibility and the Moonbats claiming that there's nothing wrong gain strength. |
You can only cry wolf so many times. | |
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