At game 25, the 18th placed team was Southampton with 23 pts, with a 0.92 points per game average, since then we have seen the same position in the table amass only 4 points, meaning a 0.02 drop in PPG.
With this decrease, the projected total of safety has now fallen down 1 point, back to our original projected total of 35 points, that we made at Game 19 in December.
With 8 games left, the average points needed (over the previous 10 years) from this stage is 8 points, helping to give us our new total of 35.
The average rise in points per game, is 0.02, again which means that adding to Palace’s current total of 0.90, multiped over 38 games, gives us a figure of 35.3.
Looking at the past precedents in regards to the previous totals, we can feel safe in ruling out 39 as total that is not enough to survive, as the jump (0.13 from 27 points) is unprecedented.
Although there was a jump of 0.14 points from this stage two seasons ago, that was from 25 points, and a similar situation would see a 15 year record high of 41 points to stay up, at the very low end of our probability scale. Only 1 team in 22 years has needed more than this to stay up.
Historical observations – 22 years
The 18th position total is the same as last year, with Hull and Palace both on 27 points.
The average of 27 points for the 18th placed team, is in line with the average at this stage, over the last 22 years.
Looking back over the last 22 years, only once has the total reached over 40 points, from 27 points at this stage, and that is West Ham (42) in 2002-2003.
Excluding the season in 02/03, involving West Ham, in 22 seasons, not once has the 18th position, with 27 points or below, reached 39 points, only twice has the total reached 38.
This season 18th placed total will be at the most, 38 points, which means Swansea would need 7 points from 8 games to guarantee survival. Anything above 38 is unprecedented and incredibly unlikely.
The minimum needed may only be 35 points, which would mean Swansea City only need as little as 4 points from the next 8 games to ensure survival.
At game 20, the 18th placed team had 17 pts, and an 0.85 points per game average, since then we have seen the same position in the table climb to 23 points, meaning a 0.92 points per game average. A 0.07 point increase in that time.
With this increase of ppg around the bottom of the table in the last 5 games, we now have a new projected safety total of 36 points.
With 13 games left, the average points needed (over 10 years) from this stage is 13, giving us our new total of 36.
The average rise in points per game, is 0.03, again which means that adding to Southampton's current total of 0.92, gives us a figure of 36.
In short, as long as the team in 18th averages 1 point a week increase, then 36 will be the minimum needed, at this moment in time.
Looking ahead to Game 30 -
For the projected total to go above or below 36, we would need to see the 18th placed team achieve the following totals by Game 30.
If we see the same increase in ppg as we did over the last 5 game weeks, then 18th place will have 30 points at Game 30, meaning a safety target of 38 points.
Could it happen? You never know in football, but I think with the league being so congested at the bottom, and teams inevitably taking points away from one another, I think 36 is still more than sound total for us to be aiming for
A lot is made of the ‘bottom at Xmas tag’, and statistically it can be seen as the kiss of death, with only 12% of teams having avoided relegation from this position*, with the three survivors being (WBA (2005), Sunderland (2014), Leicester (2015).
But, the asterix next to that statistic, is Swansea City (2016), as we were effectively joint bottom, and level on points with Hull City on Xmas day last year, and as we all knew, survived! So to flip that statistic in a positive manner, the past 3 consecutive seasons have seen the team/s with the lowest points on Xmas day survive, here’s hoping for for a 4th!
But, what fails to be mentioned alongside the ‘xmas curse’, is that Xmas Day can fall at different points in the season, in terms of games played, e.g in 2016 it was Round 17, with 19 not coming until NYD, and this year Game 19 has already been played, a whole 9 days earlier than last year.
So let’s look at Game 19, statistically, as a benchmark for the season, rather than the 25th of December. Game 19 being the half way mark, and theoretically, meaning we have played every team in the league (but not always strictly true).
Below is a summary of 18th position (highest relegation spot) at Game 19, over the last 10 seasons, with their points total, and their points per game average, with the credentials of the team who were relegated that season in 18th position, to the right, There is also the difference between the two avg points totals.
So with Game 19 already played in the 2017/2018 season, we now have the data available to make the prediction for the points total needed to survive relegation this year.
The avg points needed for the team in 18th to survive, from this point, is 19. It has been as high as 23 (2011), and as low as 12 (2010).
The avg rise in points per game for 18th position, from Game 19 to 38, is 0.07, predicting that the relegated team this year, will have 34.58 points (35). Although it has been as high as 0.21 (2008), and as low as -0.16 (2009,2010)
Using the data, we can predict that the magic number to survive this season will be 35 pts. Incidentally, 35 is also the exact average pts needed to survive over the last 10 years (perfect!)
So what does this leave Swansea City needing to do, in the second half of the season, to reach the total of 35 points?
In 2016/2017, Swansea City had 13 points from 19 games.
In 2017/2018, Swansea City have.. 13 points from 19 games.
Swansea City need a minimum of 22 points in the next 19 games, to meet our magic number and survive, 1 point more than we would have needed to survive, last season.
Last year, we amassed a total of 29 points over the second half of the season! An average of 1.53 pts per game. That will certainly do again this year, can we repeat it?
Swansea City will need to improve their average points total by 0.48 points per game to reach this total, last season they improved their second half total by 0.90 points per game. An improvement of 0.48 points looks relatively easy!
Statistically, the club is in an incredibly similar position to the one they faced last season, with 13 pts from 19 games. They have scored less goals, but also conceded less, with a goal difference today of -15, compared to -23, this time last year.
Not rocket science to any fan, we need points, and soon.
The key notable difference for me, from this time last year, to now, being..
Last year we were at 19 games played when Clement came in, and rocketed us up the table, thereafter.
This year, we are already at 19 games played, with seemingly no idea of who is going to be in charge, or in how many games time?
Will we have a team/manager in place, over the next few months, to repeat the scenario of last year?
We did it just one year ago, can we do it again? Does lightning strike twice? Let's all hope so.
I like to take an interest in these sort of things at games, 90% dont and either don't pay attention, or dont get in the ground in enough time to see it, each to their own..
As I do with every game, I arrived in the ground today to watch the pre match activity, and I was genuinely shocked, for a team at almost as high a level as you can possibly get, it is (was) poor, very poor.
'Ahh its just the warm up, means fack all..' some will say, but its all connected, otherwise whats the point in it, at all. You can observe and tell an awful lot about any player/team in just that 30 minutes or so, and if ours today was any kind of reflection of what happens in regular training sessions, then this is where the teams problems are stemming from.
I don't know the name of the gentleman who was leading the activity, but a big sign of the kind of influence he has on the players was when he was leading the dynamic movement exercises at the start, and the players were either doing something completely different or poor versions of what was asked/demonstrated.
There were many alarming facets from there onwards, but the one I really couldn't believe was that at at one point, a team in the PL would have its players standing in a static line in front of one another, passing the ball back and forth, you know, like a terribly outdated U8 grassroots activity.
Leon looked like a garden gnome, no input whatsoever.
Without surprise, first 20 minutes, many in the team couldn't trap cement, with another combination with the advertising hoarding failing to come off (I think this is 3 seperate players to my knowledge that have done this, this season, all in recent weeks). These things are not coincidental.
Usually if the training is poor, it finds a way of coming out, as I remember happening with Laudrup/Sousa, but is it a surprise that our players are looking very poor with the technical basics these days, when the level of our coaching setup, looks very poor?
Brief videos on social media of the training sessions, dont really do much to dispel this argument, so is this where the real issue is? Anyone with an ear to the ground know more?