The Swansea City board have numerous decisions to make over the coming two weeks, not least the future of Alan Sheehan at the club. The one question that is on a lot of people’s lips though is Lewis O’Brien. We’ve done some work into the player and the parameters that would get him in a Swansea shirt next season.

There hasn’t been any official talks on the midfielders position to date, the scramble to get Lewis into a Swans shirt right at the end of the January transfer window was borderline farcical. Serious money for one player was spent including a loan fee, and then the Swans agreeing to between twenty two and twenty seven thousand pounds a week as a subsidy on his salary. (sources) What we will add there’s little clarity whether that fee includes his loan fee as well. Lewis is on well above the twenty five thousand pounds a week reported by those who see themselves more informed in the ‘mainstream media’ (As people who follow us will know much of their content comes from these pages and this week shockingly stolen from a Twitter account that works very hard on their sourcing and initiative, Only Swans) That will leave a bitter taste in their mouths, they are a young and upcoming news source that have been taken advantage of by Tom Coleman a journalist who has also lifted content from these pages, and not just once. The very fact they don’t acknowledge their sourcing and ignore any contact displays a complete arrogance and ignorance towards hard working Swans news pages.

Aside from that with no talks on the horizon (there will be) we can judge the chances of Lewis being a Swans player next season from certain sources we speak to, and expert opinion of course in many cases. The Swans would love to retain O’Brien who has a contract at Nottingham Forest until the end of next season. Then he is a free agent. Based on that the general feeling is the club will most certainly have dialogue for the player with Forest, but at this time it will centre around a season long loan, after that O’Brien will be as stated - a free agent.

⚽️ The implications of a loan.
If a loan was successful Forest will be looking at the impact on them. First they will have a player potentially out of contract at the end of that loan. They will have a small amount of leeway but it will almost certainly mean they lose O’Brien on a free. There’s no value for them in that. That means - we are informed that any loan would be far more than Lewis is on regards his current agreement. Money needs recouping. Plus all the usual agent fees, bonuses, add ons etc. It wouldn’t break the Swans bank, even on thirty thousand pounds a week all in an eleven month loan would be in and around 1.4M basic. That for us sounds a no brainer.

It doesn’t end there though.

Lewis signed for Forest from Huddersfield Town after the 2022 play off final. He cost ten million pounds. That over his current contract means that Forest are still paying out large sums to Huddersfield until the end of next season. (sources) They will want to either recoup some of the ten million pounds spent or at the very least cover their payments to Huddersfield until the end of his contract. Either way, this is the bigger picture problem for the Swans. The 1.4M loan if it happened is just the basic detail. That could easily move onto 3.5M in total if Forest want him on loan and have no chance of a transfer fee they will enhance what they can get back.

This leads us to this.

Nottingham Forest we understand want a permanent transfer for Lewis. They will have their eyes on the three teams coming down from the Premier League, and let’s be honest all three of them will find Lewis of interest. Plus those in the Championship who miss out on promotion. That will be their goal. Sell him in the summer, retain some of his value within that transfer and move on. Forest do not at any level hold any interest in Lewis staying at the club. They want him off their wage bill and at another club. If that becomes their goal the Swans will be out of the running - unless new investment comes in with a few million spare. Without knowing the general particulars of the Luka Modrić deal it’s hard to say if that’s an investment he would make. As it stands it looks to us like it’s more of a commercial venture between the club and the current Real Madrid player.

What will most certainly happen is that Nottingham Forest will have their feelers out to get Lewis O’Brien off their books this summer. Whichever way that works it will happen if they get their way. The thing in the Swans favour is that Lewis, like many players who come to Swansea has taken to the lifestyle around the city. Talking on his feelings about the Swans, it’s one of those moments where you really do need to read between the lines. "I have really enjoyed my time here. It's never out of the question, but sometimes it's not in my hands, especially having to go back to my parent club. We will see what the summer holds. It's never say never really”

Admitting his overall well being and form has taken an even more upward trajectory since his wife Robyn and their new baby have temporarily moved down to Swansea it seems Lewis is reviewing his Swansea options. "I am trying to show them as much of Swansea as possible. You never know, sometimes they have the best say. Obviously the questions have been asked coming up to the end of the season. The answer is always the same, it's why not, we'll see what happens and when the summer comes, you never know”

Whatever that tells you, it tells us he is extremely noncommittal at this stage.

No matter what happens next money will be the main driver as well as his own immediate family and their preferences. If this is to come off Lewis is going to have to make some decisions that may mean a longer view. There’s much the Swans can do to encourage some form of signing and agreement. The devil in that detail will be complex and drawn out. Lewis to many fans seems to be a gift horse that cannot be ignored, the reality unfortunately is far more complex.

Photographs : Open Source & Swansea City AFC

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