Yesterday the Swans managed to prevent a three game losing streak via a great second half turnaround. Let’s take a look at the game, through a more statistical lens:

The first half had decent periods of play for the Swans. We began by dominating the ball, but mainly in our own half. We managed to get up the field through long balls, which was a common theme throughout the half. Cabango and Burgess had a combined 17 long balls in the first half, which normally is their average per game. At times we struggled throughout the half with build up play, displayed by our centre backs lack of successful passes. Burgess alone had 14 inaccurate passes in the first half, and this shows why possession stats can be redundant. When we had a lot of the ball, we were pressed in our own half and it benefited Sheffield.

Gustavo Hamer could flow through our midfield and score 1-0, but after this Swansea improved. The game flipped a bit with Sheffield gaining more of the ball, but being forced inside their own half. Melker Widell looked lively and should’ve had a penalty before Franco won one a few minutes later. Super Zan Vipotnik had no problem from 12 yards and the score was 1-1. Swansea’s number 9 is on fire for both club and country as he scored a brace for Slovenia in their 2-3 win against Montenegro on Tuesday. We can all be delighted with the Slovenian signing a new contract until 2030, some of the best business the club has done over the past few years. This may not keep clubs away from him though.

Vipotnik could’ve had another though, as Ronald played him through on goal but Adam Davies saved his shot, which was evaluated at only 0.09xg and wasn’t counted as a “big chance”. Gustavo Hamer missed his big chance in the latter stages of the half, after Yalcouye was dispossessed in his own half (though Yalcouye should probably have had a free kick). The last 10 minutes or so were way too chaotic and Swansea struggled to stop the Blades’ onslaught, and were lucky not to be behind at the break. Overall we ended the first half with 51% possession and 2 shots, with Sheffield having 6 attempts.

The second half started of with some good passages of play for the Swans, and Widell was so so close to scoring his first ever Swansea goal. But on the goal line stood Tyler Bindon and his save started a counter attack which culminated in a 4v4 Cabango was pointing for Joel Ward to cover the right side, but Ward stayed inbetween resulting in Harrison Burrows being free and able to drive it past Vigouroux. After this Swansea lost control and a Tom Cannon cannonball saw the home side lead by 2.

Matos tried changing the game through his subs, and it worked wonders. Nunes found Fulton whose pass ended up to Adam Idah who scored his third goal of the season, 3-2. Six minutes later Idah broke through and found Eom for a tap in to equalise the game. In his time at Swansea, Matos’ has never had this much of a positive impact with his subs. In a 20 minute period, Swansea transformed offensively and I’m especially delighted for Adam Idah who really showed something today, I think our striker situation is looking quite good.

The game ended 3-3, with Swansea having more good chances but Sheffield taking more attempts. Some players that really stood out for me was Adam Idah, Franco and Widell. Adam Idah managed to create a goal with his smart run and good physicality and scored comfortably from a 0.22xg chance (0.22xg means that your average player would score that chance 1 out of 5 times).
Gonçalo Franco was our most important midfielder today. Not only does he get into way more duels than any of our players, he wins more as well. Today he won 8/13 and his tenacity and energy was well needed.

Widell once again had a super good performance with loads of energy, will to go forward and some good moments of skill. He should’ve had a penalty and the ref overall seemed to have something against him. But, as we have seen way too often, he just can’t get that final product. He had a 0.19xg shot cleared from the goal line, it can’t really get much closer than that. He was a bit unfortunate to not get more from his efforts, but either way he was great and I think his performances indicate that he could become really good in the future.

Swansea ended the game with 52% possession, and looking at heat maps and density of where we play, it’s quite obvious we highly prefer playing down our left side. This has been true for the entirety of the season and it’s not difficult to understand why. On the left we have perhaps the divisions best offensive fullback. Josh Tymon is statistically an offensive demon, with 1 goal and whooping 9 assists (which makes him the joint third player with most assists, and most of any fullbacks). Our preference of the left side should also be considered when we criticize our right wingers, like Ronald. They often lack the offensive support that the players on the left have. An in form Josh Key would change this somewhat, but as it stands our right wingers often get quite isolated.

There has been a lot of discourse about our centre backs recently, as well as our back line in general. This has of course been intensified with Filip Lissah making headlines in Scotland. With the game today, I’ve been tasked to evaluate our centre back pairing of Burgess and Cabango, not only in today’s game but throughout the entire season. In the past, I have specifically criticized Burgess, stating that his ability on the ball is by far the weakest of the starters and his defensive ability hasn’t been good enough to cover it up. The statistics however, don’t really back my argument. If you compare Burgess’ stats to Cabango’s, who I think we should continue to have as our defensive anchor and captain, one could actually make the case that the Australian has been better than, or equal to, our skipper. They have similar passing stats, with Burgess having a few more passes per 90 but a slightly weaker successful passes percentage. But the Australian slightly outshines the Welshman when it comes to defensive contributions, this is where Burgess truly solidifies himself. He averages more clearances, blocked shots and interceptions than most centre backs.

With that said, Burgess did not impress today in possession at all. He misplayed 27(!) passes today, with a success percentage of 71% (67/94). This should be taken into context. Burgess attempted more passes than any other player today, and I find it strange that he needs to attempt 94 passes in a game, when he clearly isn’t the player who should get the ball that often. Cabango had 46/60 passes attempted (77%) and in general lost the ball in less dangerous areas. Burgess tends to misplace quite easy passes, which was apparent today. I think most people view Cabango favorably and his leadership ability is valued very highly. Burgess I know is quite polarizing and people often end on different conclusions. In my opinion, his ability on the ball is not good enough for a Swansea center back, and I think he should be a rotation option for next year.

With all this said, both Cabango and Burgess possess quite the best ability of all - availability. Burgess has played EVERY minute of EVERY game this season, and that is just incredible. Cabango has played one game less, and it’s safe to say we haven’t struggled with injuries to our backline at all. This should be commended and not under appreciated.

Today’s game was fun too watch, and I’m very pleased with Matos’ subs which changed our offense very effectively. We struggled with build up at times, which showcased through the stats. There are questions to be asked regarding our back line, and this off-season will be very interesting to say the least, with Lissah a potential new signings to be considered.

Swansea has three wins out of the last 16 away games, and this of course has been the main detriment of our season. This game hopefully can lend some confidence going into our next game on the road, and the poor form is something Matos will need to work on heading into next season. Six games remain and then preparations for next season start. Uppa Swans!

Check out the weekends reports on the Indy.

⚽️ The full Indy treatment

⚽️ Rhys Clayton post match

It has saved lives.

Photographs : Swansea Independent & Swansea City AFC