Swansea City have recently entered a deal with Jamestown Analytics. (JA) This is some of the most exciting news in a very long time, but it’s important that we understand what this means for the club going forward, and what opportunities it opens up for us in the future. It isn’t all straight forward either.

What is Jamestown Analytics?

Jamestown Analytics is an offshoot of the betting company Starlizard, founded by Brighton owner Tony Bloom. Bloom is a poker player who has been involved in sports betting since the 1990s. Starlizard is an analytics company and betting syndicate founded in 2006, which primarily uses secret algorithms and data to place large bets on various sports, though usually football, primarily in Europe and Asia.

How does it work?

In short, Jamestown Analytics (JA) uses the same models that inform betting odds, but applies them to scouting and gathering data on football players. The company is very secretive, but it most likely draws on the same models that Starlizard uses to calculate its bets. Essentially, while Starlizard focuses on setting odds, Jamestown Analytics uses that exact same data to help football clubs find undervalued, hidden talent. This means JA has a very unique and industry-leading approach to scouting players, which has resulted in previously unknown “hidden gems” often being discovered, with numerous examples to point to.

The company also uses its models for game preparation, opposition analysis and post-match evaluation, making it more than just a recruitment tool. They only enter into partnerships with a select few clubs, as without exclusivity the company would significantly lose its value. There’s no point in scouting a hidden gem or obtaining better pre- and post-match analysis if everyone else has access to the same information. Thus weakens their position and dilutes the availability.

This also means that Jamestown does not enter partnerships with multiple clubs in the same league.

The English footballing pyramid is the only one in the world with multiple clubs partnered with both Brighton and Grimsby Town in League 2 holding partnerships. With Swansea now joining, no other JA-partnered clubs have been this close to each other before.

What does the deal entail?

Entering a partnership with Jamestown Analytics is sometimes bundled with Tony Bloom investing in the club and becoming a part-owner; this is the case with Hearts (Scotland) and Union Saint-Gilloise (Belgium). But this is not the case here. There are no official details about the deal, but the general model is that Swansea City pays an annual fee, like a subscription, and in return gain access to game preparation, opposition analysis, post-match evaluation and player scouting. As an example the Swans will have exclusive Championship access to data for Stoke City away for the opening game of the season. Ipswich Town were tied in with JA but upon promotion to the Premier League they withdrew from their position.

Why Jamestown have chosen Swansea as a partner is unknown, but you would expect it to be as a result of hard work from CEO Tom Gorringe backed by majority owners Brett Cravatt and Jason Cohen. The ‘subscription’ is exclusive to the Swans, and yes they pay but that isn’t a significant sum. To be chosen as a partner is the reward and a real result for the club. This is is more about what JA see for the club in the future, being chosen is not an automatic choice. And then there’s the obvious percentage agreement for players purchase. Get a player in, turn around a profit and the percentage splits are made. What we know is that they are very selective about which clubs they partner with, and usually only partner with clubs that have a clear identity, a non-chaotic ownership structure and are not in direct competition with another JA-partnered team. Swansea tick the first two boxes pretty well, but should we be promoted it would create direct competition with Brighton — a very interesting prospect.You would guess the Swans would step away if that happened.

What does it mean for Swansea?

It means the club gain access to some of the most industry-leading tools in data analytics and scouting. This comes at a time where Swansea have just restructured, with Ben Stevens arriving from Crystal Palace as sporting director, and Jay Lefevre taking on the role of head of recruitment after previously serving as chief scout. This reorganisation, together with the Jamestown deal, means we will most likely take a more data-driven approach to scouting. JA is a tool — perhaps the best in the world for scouting — but it is still Jay Lefevre and Ben Stevens who are responsible for the recruitment.

Based on the limited information available, Jamestown Analytics is incorporated into scouting and recruitment something like this:

Swansea (Vitor Matos included) identifies a required player profile, for example a ball-winning midfielder, specifying the budget, age, and desired profile and characteristics. JA then uses its models to identify players who fit the criteria and have usually gone undiscovered (meaning they are cheaper). JA tailors the data specifically for the club, so in theory only Swansea can use the information.

Armed with the report from JA, the Swansea recruitment team decides whether to sign anyone, and if so, whom. This decision is still led by Jay Lefevre and his colleagues.

Is Jamestown Analytics effective?

Based on the 9 years since its deployment, yes, it seems to be very effective — but it should be stated that we can only speculate on how big a role JA has played in successful signings. Based on the nature of the examples below, however, it is very likely JA was the primary component. However, there isn’t a solid guarantee all will work out well. There are player issues at times as noted by Hearts Standard. The primary reasons Jamestown-backed recruits miss the mark generally come down to injury complications, cultural misalignment, or poor coaching fits, rather than statistical flaws. Remember that old Indy saying ? ‘There’s no more free radical than folk’

Let’s look at Alireza Jahanbakhsh, he struggled with the pace and physicality of the Premier League, managing just 2 goals in 50 league appearances for Brighton before being sold at a massive loss. He signed from AZ in the Netherlands for €17,000,000. Ex Swan, Yan Dhanda (below) has been described as a Jamestown misfire. He couldn’t settle at Hearts initially, has had some success but has been in and out on loan. Obtaining a visa for his partner didn’t help though (the free radical bit) He is now back at Tynecastle as they look to build for the new season. Deniz Undav was plucked from the German third tier by Union SG's data, then brought to Brighton where he struggled to adapt to the Premier League pace and system. He was deemed a Brighton miss, only to return to Germany and become a prolific goalscorer for Stuttgart. So, there’s plenty of examples and many more the same as these deals. It’s the human effect you can’t predict. And you never will.

Brighton provide the best argument for Jamestown Analytics though.

Moïses Caicedo was signed for £4 million from Ecuadorian side Independiente del Valle and later sold to Chelsea for over £100 million. That fee of £4 million illustrates how JA scouts players who are not otherwise highly sought after. Alexis Mac Allister was signed for £7 million from Argentine club Juniors and then sold for £35 million both are pictured below.

Hearts signed Claudio Braga from Norwegian club Ålesund, where he had not attracted significant interest from other European clubs, but he has since become a key player at Hearts, and according to Transfermarkt, his value has increased 20-fold.

There are many other examples, but to me it is clear that Jamestown Analytics excels at finding undervalued players that fit a club’s desired profile. I believe this partnership can only be viewed as a positive step in the right direction for the club during its back-room rebuild.

Photograph digitalisation Swansea Independent. Chelsea & Brighton licensed from Reuters