It's been a roller coaster season for Southampton FC and tonight could see both another high and another low at the same time as Fulham take on Burnley knowing this is the first of four last chance saloons for them.
If Fulham fail to beat Burnley at Craven Cottage this evening then that will all but confirm their relegation back to the Championship, they start today on 27 points with 4 games left and can only get a total of 39 if they win each of their final four games.
A draw will see them only be able to manage 37 points and that will be the total that the three clubs directly above them Burnley , Saints & Brighton will sit on if that is the result.
But although that draw will all but see Saints safe it will also see Burnley overtake us goal difference and we will drop to 17th only a place above Fulham.
Burnley for their part know that if they beat the Cottagers this evening then not only are they safe but so will Saints and Brighton be and for that matter Newcastle on 39 points, as that win will see Fulham only be able to get 36 points and they will be down with 3 games left to play and join Sheffield United and West Brom who themselves saw their fate confirmed after defeat at Arsenal yesterday.
But for Saints fans there is a dilemma, do we want to trade absolute safety with a Burnley victory tonight against League position.
There is now a mini league between Crystal Palace in 13th place on 41 points going down to Burnley at time of writing in 17th on 36 points.
With four games left we should really be backing ourselves to hit that 13th spot come the end of the season, we have four winnable games and with the next two against Fulham and Palace it is all in our own hands.
It is not just the league looking a bit better in terms of position, it is also about the money, there is £8 million to play for, in financial terms for those that have a glass half empty viewpoint it covers three months of the current losses made in this pandemic, for those with a more optimistic outlook it will boost our transfer kitty by £8 million and for a club our size that amount is not significant.
So there is a school of thought that says that Burnley losing tonight might be better from a Saints perspective, it will still leave us sweating on mathematical safety, but will leave Burnley still below us in the League and give us a head start on the race for 13th.
Weighing things up I am of the mind that a draw will be the best result, it leaves Fulham no room in their last three games and we could indeed put them to bed on Saturday at St Mary's and it leaves us with a level playing field for the final 3 games.
Some will disagree but if we finish 13th that is the par score for us, there would be few clubs above us who when you weight all things up including size of support etc on paper should be below us.
We as a club are about good management and overachieving, if we hit 13th we hit par score which although is a disappointment is where we should be as a minimum, indeed you could argue par is actually 14th given the size of Newcastle as a club.
So a dilemma tonight, where do you stand on the result, win lose of draw for either side ?