| C-19 Updates 13:07 - Apr 17 with 11163 views | GaryT |
Some people have commented that they find this info useful and some would prefer it didn't clog up the main Corona thread. For those reasons I've decided to do a seperate thread which can happily be ignored by the main Corona thread contributers and read only by the stat nerds.
Can I ask that the general discussion about C-19 be kept in the Corona thread and leave this one just for updates and stats. Cheers.
Todays update
On the 16th April The USA or in particular New York decided to include non hospital deaths in their totals. They included an additional 3,778 deaths that went back to 11 March and added them to the April 14ths total so they went a little under the radar. New York has now made it mandatory to wear face masks so it will be interesting to see how their case and deaths numbers change in the coming weeks compared to other US states who don't follow the same guidelines.
France continues to do things slightly differently as they reported 17,164 new cases yesterday compared to 4,560 the day before. It's not the first time they have reported a large number of new cases, on the 3rd April they reported 23,060 compared to 2,116 the previous day and 7,788 the following day.
It's widely accepted now that Cases are an almost worthless stat as it depends on how many tests a country does. Deaths are also becoming unreliable as some countries include non hospital deaths and others don't. This article says that some of the unreported care home deaths are outnumbering the reported ones. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-
Based on the total reported deaths for the last 7 days, the UK is continuing to look like the sick man of Europe.
USA - 17905 (inc 3778 deaths in New York care homes)
UK - 5751
France - 5710 (inc care home deaths)
Italy - 3891
Spain - 3868
Belgium - 2334
Germany - 1445
Looking back at the timelines, the UK was 16 days behind Italy on 28th March, was 15 days behind on the 2nd April and was 14 days behind on the 12th April where it remains today. The UK was 9 days behind Spain on 30th March, it increased to nearly 10 days but is now close to 9 days again.
UK …..... Total Deaths … Spain … Total Deaths … Italy … Total Deaths
28/03/20 ….. 1019 ….. 19/03/20 …... 831 …... 14/03/20 ….. 1441
29/03/20 ….. 1228 ….. 20/03/20 ….. 1093 ….. 15/03/20 ….. 1809
30/03/20 ….. 1408 ….. 21/03/20 ….. 1381 ….. 16/03/20 ….. 2158
31/03/20 ….. 1789 ….. 22/03/20 ….. 1772 ….. 17/03/20 ….. 2503
01/04/20 ….. 2352 ….. 23/03/20 ….. 2311 ….. 18/03/20 ….. 2978
02/04/20 ….. 2921 ….. 24/03/20 ….. 2991 ….. 19/03/20 ….. 3405
03/04/20 ….. 3605 ….. 25/03/20 ….. 3647 ….. 20/03/20 ….. 4032
04/04/20 ….. 4313 ….. 26/03/20 ….. 4365 ….. 21/03/20 ….. 4825
05/04/20 ….. 4934 ….. 27/03/20 ….. 5138 ….. 22/03/20 ….. 5476
06/04/20 ….. 5373 ….. 28/03/20 ….. 5982 ….. 23/03/20 ….. 6077
07/04/20 ….. 6159 ….. 29/03/20 ….. 6803 ….. 24/03/20 ….. 6820
08/04/20 ….. 7097 ….. 30/03/20 ….. 7716 ….. 25/03/20 ….. 7503
09/04/20 ….. 7978 ….. 31/03/20 ….. 8464 ….. 26/03/20 ….. 8215
10/04/20 ….. 8958 ….. 01/04/20 ….. 9387 ….. 27/03/20 ….. 9134
11/04/20 ….. 9875 ….. 02/04/20 …. 10348 …. 28/03/20 …. 10023
12/04/20 …. 10612 …. 03/04/20 …. 11198 …. 29/03/20 …. 10779
13/04/20 …. 11329 …. 04/04/20 …. 11947 …. 30/03/20 …. 11591
14/04/20 …. 12107 …. 05/04/20 …. 12641 …. 31/03/20 …. 12428
15/04/20 …. 12868 …. 06/04/20 …. 13341 …. 01/04/20 …. 13155
16/04/20 …. 13729 …. 07/04/20 …. 14045 …. 02/04/20 …. 13915
…............ ….. …....... …. 08/04/20 …. 14792 …. 03/04/20 …. 14681
…............ ….. …....... …. 09/04/20 …. 15447 …. 04/04/20 …. 15362
…............ ….. …....... …. 10/04/20 …. 16081 …. 05/04/20 …. 15887
…............ ….. …....... …. 11/04/20 …. 16606 …. 06/04/20 …. 16523
…............ ….. …....... …. 12/04/20 …. 17209 …. 07/04/20 …. 17127
…............ ….. …....... …. 13/04/20 …. 17756 …. 08/04/20 …. 17669
…............ ….. …....... …. 14/04/20 …. 18255 …. 09/04/20 …. 18279
…............ ….. …....... …. 15/04/20 …. 18812 …. 10/04/20 …. 18849
…............ ….. …....... …. 16/04/20 …. 19315 …. 11/04/20 …. 19468
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 12/04/20 …. 19899
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 13/04/20 …. 20465
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 14/04/20 …. 21067
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 15/04/20 …. 21645
…............ ….. …....... …. …............ …. …........ …. 16/04/20 …. 22170
[Post edited 18 Apr 2020 21:09]
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| C-19 Updates on 10:55 - Jul 3 with 2515 views | GaryT |
Sweden have been at it again. First they had a couple of 0 days (again) and then on 30th June they threw everything in the bin and came up with a completely new set of numbers. Fortunately I took a screenshot of their erratic reporting last week and I've added how much nicer it looks now.
Talk about re-writing history!
USA's changed all their numbers again, this time adding an extra 752. All of the Euro countries (apart from Spain who are still breaking in their new abacus) are still seeing week on week falls but the four Latin American countries (at the top of the rolling 7 day chart) are now five with Columbia joining. The good news for Latin America is that several of the worst hit countries are showing a downturn in deaths recently.
Chile - 1017 this week from 1062, 1193 and 1292 in previous weeks.
Peru - 1284 from 1300, 1352
Brazil — 6936 from 7185
Mexico - 4186 from 5244
The UK is now the only EU country with triple digit deaths in the 10m/rolling 7 day chart with 112. By comparison the three countries the UK was so keen to compare itself to in April/May are Italy — 23, France — 19 and Spain 8. The UK has managed to drop below the US this week (119) so hurrah!
I'm only adding countries that are showing a consistent rise in deaths so this week I've added Columbia and Iraq.
For the 7 days from 26th June to 2nd July, here's the latest numbers...
Total deaths
USA........131,485...(from 127,532, 122,516, 117,809, 112,112, 105,177)
................+3953.....(from +4294, +4707, +5697, +6935, +70732, +9198)
Brazil.......61,990....(from 55,054, 47,869, 41,058, 34,039, 26,764, 20,082)
................+6936.....(from +7185, +6811, +7019, +7275, +6682, +6089)
UK...........43,995....(from 43,230, 42,288, 41,279, 39,904, 38,220, 36,042)
..................+765.....(from +942, +1009, +1375, +1684, +2178, +2428 +2999)
Italy.........34,818....(from 34,678, 34,514, 34,167, 33,689, 33,142, 32,486)
..................+140.....(from +225, +347, +478, +547, +656, +1118, +1410)
France.....29,875....(from 29,752, 29,603, 29,346, 29,065, 28,662, 28,215)
..................+123.....(from +149, +257, +281, +403, +447, +790, +1438)
Mexico....28,510....(from 24,324, 19,080, 15,137, 11,729, 8597, 6090)
................+4186.....(from +5244, +3723, +3628, +3132, +2507, +1,870)
Spain.......28,368....(from 28,330, 28,315, 28,259, 28,133, 27,922, 27,502)
...................+38......(from +15, +56, +126, +211, +420, +404, +1028, +1527)
Iran..........11,106....(from 10,130, 9272, 8584, 8071, 7627, 7249, 6854)
…...............+976......(from +858, +688, +513, +444, +378, +395, +368, +458)
Peru.........10,045....(from 8761, 7461, 6109, 5031, 4099, 3148, 2267, 1627)
.................+1284....(from +1300, +1352, +1078, +932, +951, +881, +640)
Belgium.....9761.....(from 9726, 9683, 9636, 9548, 9388, 9186, 8903, 8415)
..................+35.......(from +43, +47, +88, +160, +202, +283, +488, +821)
Germany....9064.....(from 9012, 8944, 8849, 8736, 8570, 8309, 7928, 7392)
...................+52......(from +66, +95, +115, +166, +261, +381, +536, +769)
Chile..........5920.....(from 4903, 3841, 2648, 1356, 890, 589, 368, 285, 227)
….............+1017.....(from +1062, +1193, +1292, +466, +301, +221, +83, +58)
Sweden.....5357.....(from 5311, 5212, 5017, 4772, 4501, 4198, 3833, 3411)
...................+46......(from +99, +195, +245, +271, +303, +365, +422, +535)
Columbia...3641.....(from 2654, 1950, 1488, 1087, 822, 652, 525, 407, 293)
…...............+987......(from +704, +462, +401, +265, +170, +127, +118, +114)
Iraq............2160.....(from 1437, 856, 457, 271, 179, 140, 115, 102, 93, 83)
…...............+723......(from +581, +399, +186, +92, +39, +25, +13, +9, +10)
Ireland.......1738.....(from 1727, 1714, 1703, 1664, 1639, 1583, 1506, 1403)
...................+11......(from +13, +11, +39, +25, +56, +77, +103, +174, +251)
Deaths Per 1 million population
Belgium........842 (from 839, 835, 831, 824, 810, 792, 768, 726, 655, 560)
UK................648 (from 637, 623, 608, 588, 563, 531, 495, 451, 394, 321)
Spain............607 (from 606, 605, 604, 602, 597, 588, 579, 557, 524, 474)
Italy..............576 (from 573, 570, 564, 556, 547, 536, 518, 494, 462, 422)
Sweden........530 (from 525, 516, 497, 472, 445, 415, 379, 337, 284, 230)
France..........457 (from 456, 453, 449, 445, 439, 432, 420, 398, 373, 335)
USA..............397 (from 385, 372, 358, 341, 320, 298, 270, 237, 196, 154)
Ireland..........352 (from 350, 347, 345, 337, 332, 321, 305, 284, 249, 198)
Chile.............309 (from 256, 201, 138, 71, 46, 31, 19, 15, 12, 9, 5, 3, 1)
Peru..............304 (from 226, 185, 153, 124, 95, 69, 49, 32, 17, 8, 4, 1)
Brazil............291 (from 259, 225, 193, 160, 126, 94, 66, 43, 27, 15, 9, 4, 1)
Mexico.........221 (from 189, 148, 119, 91,67, 47, 33, 21, 13, 7, 3, 1, 0.2)
Iran...............132 (from 121, 102, 96, 91, 86, 81,77, 72, 65, 58, 49, 37)
Germany.......108 (from 107, 107, 105, 104, 102, 99, 95, 88, 79, 66, 48, 31)
Columbia........71 (from 52, 38, 29, 21, 16, 13, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 1)
Iraq.................53 (from 35, 21, 11, 8, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1)
Deaths per 10 million population for the last 7 days (to see whose curve is going up and whose curve is going down).
Chile..............532 (from 555, 624, 676, 243, 157, 115, 43, 30, 30, 33, 25, 20)
Peru...............389 (from 394, 410, 327, 283, 288, 267, 194, 174, 145, 90)
Brazil..............326 (from 338, 320, 330, 342, 314, 286, 226, 154, 121, 64)
Mexico...........324 (from 407, 289, 281, 243, 94, 145, 117, 75, 59, 40, 21)
Columbia.......194 (from 138, 91, 79, 52, 33, 25, 23, 22, 15, 14, 15, 10, 2, 1)
Iraq................179 (from 144, 99, 46, 23, 10, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1)
USA...............119 (from 142, 172, 209, 213, 278, 318, 402, 420, 472, 465)
Iran................116 (from 61, 53, 45, 47, 44, 54, 65, 73, 90, 113, 110, 113)
UK.................112 (from 148, 202, 248, 321, 357, 442, 566, 734, 860, 933)
Sweden...........46 (from 99, 195, 245, 271, 303, 365, 422, 535, 554, 565)
Belgium..........30 (from 40, 76, 138, 174, 244, 421, 708, 952, 1409, 2014)
Italy.................23 (from 57, 79, 90, 108, 185, 233, 329, 399, 556, 642, 720)
Ireland............22 (from 26, 22, 79, 50, 113, 156, 209, 346, 888, 624, 452)
France.............19 (from 39, 43, 62, 68, 121, 220, 247, 386, 603, 875, 104)
Spain.................8 (from 12, 27, 45, 90, 86, 220, 326, 510, 647, 787, 1090)
Germany...........6 (from 11, 13, 20, 31, 45, 64, 92, 125, 181, 172, 179, 100)
In the Scandinavian league...
Deaths per 1 million population
Sweden........530....(from 525, 516, 497, 472, 445, 415, 379, 337)
Denmark......105....(from 104, 104, 104, 102, 101, 98, 96, 93, 89)
Finland..........59.....(from 59, 59, 59, 59, 58, 56, 55, 52, 46)
Norway.........46.....(from 46, 45, 44.66, 44, 43.57, 43.38, 42.83)
Total number of deaths for the Scandinavians:
Sweden.......5357
Denmark......606
Finland.........328
Norway.........251
[Post edited 3 Jul 2020 11:02]
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| C-19 Updates on 11:04 - Jul 3 with 2475 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
Thanks
I wonder, as I've not seen, how many we are testing day on day
Said yesterday there were 576 new cases which on the face of it looks much better but without knowing how many test were done, it means little. |  |
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| C-19 Updates on 11:27 - Jul 3 with 2445 views | QPR_John |
| C-19 Updates on 11:04 - Jul 3 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
Thanks
I wonder, as I've not seen, how many we are testing day on day
Said yesterday there were 576 new cases which on the face of it looks much better but without knowing how many test were done, it means little. |
You have a point. Why the figures for actual tests completed are now not given does not make sense. |  | | |
| C-19 Updates on 11:29 - Jul 3 with 2440 views | GaryT |
| C-19 Updates on 11:04 - Jul 3 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
Thanks
I wonder, as I've not seen, how many we are testing day on day
Said yesterday there were 576 new cases which on the face of it looks much better but without knowing how many test were done, it means little. |
worldometers get their info from here
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
and here
edited to show there are two links, one is displayed and the other not [Post edited 3 Jul 2020 11:31]
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| C-19 Updates on 11:40 - Jul 3 with 2412 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
Thanks
[Post edited 3 Jul 2020 11:43]
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| C-19 Updates on 14:06 - Jul 3 with 2360 views | CaptainPugwash |
This insistence on wearing these unhygenic and dangerous face nappies is just sado maskism. |  | | |
| C-19 Updates on 14:16 - Jul 3 with 2355 views | doogi10 |
the good news is the science lab i work at have just annouced they can do a test in 25 mins.public health england looking at it | | | |
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| C-19 Updates on 14:54 - Jul 5 with 2237 views | GaryT |
I posted something similar in the Corona thread yesterday with regard to Brazil. 99% of those who died from the Spanish Flu in the 2nd wave were coughing up blood so although we haven't seen that with C19, too much blood in the lungs does seem to be a common problem. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 11:33 - Jul 9 with 2158 views | GaryT |
Ahead of tomorrow's update I wanted to share something I've spotted recently. As we know, western Europe, in particular Italy, Spain, France and The UK were the worst hit in the first wave of the virus. To put it into perspective, when you include The USA, the combined total from these 5 countries added up to 75% of the worlds deaths on 9th April and still accounts for 50% today. Eastern Europe went under the radar as they weren't so badly hit but they all followed the lockdown route and eased restrictions some time ago. What is happening now is an increase in cases in many Eastern European countries and there were violent demonstrations in Serbia yesterday as the government reintroduced lockdown restrictions.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-latest-serbia-sees-highest-spike
This picture shows the countries seeing the start of a 2nd wave and I've included others around the world, including Iran, Israel and the USA who are undoubtedly seeing a 2nd wave.
The troubles in Serbia are likely to be repeated in many countries where a 2nd lockdown is enacted as the inconvenience (to put it mildly) to peoples lives will be seen as too much, irrespective of the science and the cost of life. Many countries around the world, possibly most of them, are seeing record numbers of cases day after day as their first wave takes hold. It's hard to say whether the increase in cases is down to improved testing or just the fact that the virus is now spreading faster in countries where it was slow to get a foothold. Either way, with 2nd waves (in countries where only a small percentage of people have caught the virus) combining with 1st waves for the majority of the world, it would seem we have a long way to go before this is behind us. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 12:09 - Jul 10 with 2057 views | GaryT |
Another week another month of revisions for Sweden, this time adding 104 to their death toll. That might not seem like much but it's more than they have declared for the last 15 days combined.
The UK quietly adjusted the number of cases on the 2nd of July by reducing it by 30,302 giving the excuse that cases had been counted twice in pillar 1 and pillar 2. Thirty thousand duplicates! Wtf? The only problem with this excuse is that Pillar 2 numbers from private companies didn't start until early April yet all the case numbers back to 1st March (before the first death) have been lowered soooo...more number massaging.
The five Latin American countries are still topping the rolling 7 day/10m pop chart. After downturns last week there are slight increases for Brazil and Mexico but Peru continues to see a very slow downturn whilst Chile saw a sharp drop but not enough to relinquish the top spot.
Germany has been added to the list of Euro countries that have seen an increase in deaths week on week. Previous to this only Ireland had seen an increase from 11 to 13 but with such low numbers, it's a little unfair on them. We can't count Spain's increase from 15 to 38 as their system had crashed and Sweden completely rewrote their entire history so their occasional increases are now just a figment of our imaginations. I posted yesterday that Eastern European countries are starting to see case numbers rising again so there may well be increases in deaths in those countries too but I'm only including the Western Euro countries who were worst affected at the start of the pandemic. I later included other countries around the world who have also been badly affected so it's not a complete list of all countries with rises in death totals.
The UK continues to see the weekly death total fall and with the case numbers holding around 500/600 a day there's no immediate sign of the carnage predicted from Super Saturday. I guess it takes a while for the pub goers to get round to paying a visit to auntie Doreen so we'll have a better picture of how the virus is spreading by the end of the month. A special mention for Belgium because on May 7th they were top of the 7 day rolling chart but are now below everyone bar Spain and Germany. Top work you clever little Belgians!
For the 7 days from 3rd July to 9th July, here's the latest numbers...
Total deaths
USA.......135,822....(from 131,448, 127,532, 123,238, 118,518, 112,810)
.................+4374....(from +3916, +4294, +4720, +5708, +6914, +7222)
Brazil.......69,254....(from 61,990, 55,054, 47,869, 41,058, 34,039, 26,764)
................+7264.....(from +6936, +7185, +6811, +7019, +7275, +6682)
UK...........44,602....(from 43,995, 43,230, 42,288, 41,279, 39,904, 38,220)
..................+607.....(from +765, +942, +1009, +1375, +1684, +2178, +2428)
Italy.........34,926....(from 34,818, 34,678, 34,514, 34,167, 33,689, 33,142)
..................+108.....(from +140, +225, +347, +478, +547, +656, +1118)
Mexico....32,796....(from 28,510, 24,324, 19,080, 15,137, 11,729, 8597)
................+4286.....(from +4186, +5244, +3723, +3628, +3132, +2507)
France.....29,875....(from 29,875, 29,752, 29,603, 29,346, 29,065, 28,662)
..................+123.....(from +149, +257, +281, +403, +447, +790, +1438)
Spain.......28,401....(from 28,368, 28,330, 28,315, 28,259, 28,133, 27,922)
...................+33......(from +38, +15, +56, +126, +211, +420, +404, +1028)
Iran..........12,305....(from 11,106, 10,130, 9272, 8584, 8071, 7627, 7249)
…..............+1199....(from +976, +858, +688, +513, +444, +378, +395, +368)
Peru.........11,314....(from 10,045, 8761, 7461, 6109, 5031, 4099, 3148)
.................+1269....(from +1284, +1300, +1352, +1078, +932, +951, +881)
Belgium....9778......(from 9761, 9726, 9683, 9636, 9548, 9388, 9186, 8903)
..................+17.......(from +35, +43, +47, +88, +160, +202, +283, +488)
Germany....9125.....(from 9064, 9012, 8944, 8849, 8736, 8570, 8309, 7928)
...................+61......(from +52, +66, +95, +115, +166, +261, +381, +536)
Chile..........6682.....(from 5920, 4903, 3841, 2648, 1356, 890, 589, 368)
…...............+762.....(from +1017, +1062, +1193, +1292, +466, +301, +221)
Sweden.....5461.....(from 5357, 5311, 5212, 5017, 4772, 4501, 4198, 3833)
...................+35......(from +55, +150, +204, +245, +271, +303, +365, +422)
Columbia...4714.....(from 3641, 2654, 1950, 1488, 1087, 822, 652, 525)
…..............+1073....(from +987, +704, +462, +401, +265, +170, +127, +118)
Iraq............2882.....(from 2160, 1437, 856, 457, 271, 179, 140, 115, 102)
…..............+722......(from +723,+581, +399, +186, +92, +39, +25, +13, +9)
Ireland.......1747.....(from 1738, 1727, 1714, 1703, 1664, 1639, 1583, 1506)
...................+9........(from +11, +13, +11, +39, +25, +56, +77, +103, +174)
Deaths Per 1 million population
Belgium........843 (from 842, 839, 835, 831, 824, 810, 792, 768, 726, 655)
UK................657 (from 648, 637, 623, 608, 588, 563, 531, 495, 451, 394)
Spain............607 (from 607, 606, 605, 604, 602, 597, 588, 579, 557, 524)
Italy..............578 (from 576, 573, 570, 564, 556, 547, 536, 518, 494, 462)
Sweden........541 (from 537, 532, 517, 497, 472, 445, 415, 379, 337, 284)
France..........459 (from 457, 456, 453, 449, 445, 439, 432, 420, 398, 373)
USA..............410 (from 397, 385, 372, 358, 341, 320, 298, 270, 237, 196)
Ireland..........354 (from 352, 350, 347, 345, 337, 332, 321, 305, 284, 249)
Chile.............349 (from 309, 256, 201, 138, 71, 46, 31, 19, 15, 12, 9, 5, 3, 1)
Peru..............343 (from 304, 226, 185, 153, 124, 95, 69, 49, 32, 17, 8, 4, 1)
Brazil............326 (from 291, 259, 225, 193, 160, 126, 94, 66, 43, 27, 15, 9)
Mexico.........254 (from 221, 189, 148, 119, 91,67, 47, 33, 21, 13, 7, 3, 1)
Iran...............146 (from 132, 121, 102, 96, 91, 86, 81,77, 72, 65, 58, 49, 37)
Germany.......109 (from 108, 107, 107, 105, 104, 102, 99, 95, 88, 79, 66, 48)
Columbia........92 (from 71, 52, 38, 29, 21, 16, 13, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 1)
Iraq.................71 (from 53, 35, 21, 11, 8, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1)
Deaths per 10 million population for the last 7 days (to see whose curve is going up and whose curve is going down).
Chile.............398 (from 532, 555, 624, 676, 243, 157, 115, 43, 30, 30, 33)
Peru..............385 (from 389, 394, 410, 327, 283, 288, 267, 194, 174, 145)
Brazil............342 (from 326, 338, 320, 330, 342, 314, 286, 226, 154, 121)
Mexico..........332 (from 324, 407, 289, 281, 243, 94, 145, 117, 75, 59, 40)
Columbia......210 (from 194, 138, 91, 79, 52, 33, 25, 23, 22, 15, 14, 15, 10)
Iraq...............179 (from 179, 144, 99, 46, 23, 10, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1)
Iran...............142 (from 116, 61, 53, 45, 47, 44, 54, 65, 73, 90, 113, 110)
USA...............132 (from 119, 142, 172, 209, 213, 278, 318, 402, 420, 472)
UK...................89 (from 112, 148, 202, 248, 321, 357, 442, 566, 734, 860)
Sweden...........35 (from 54, 148, 202, 242, 268, 300, 361, 418, 530, 549)
Ireland............18 (from 22, 26, 22, 79, 50, 113, 156, 209, 346, 888, 624)
Italy.................18 (from 23, 57, 79, 90, 108, 185, 233, 329, 399, 556, 642)
France.............16 (from 19, 39, 43, 62, 68, 121, 220, 247, 386, 603, 875)
Belgium..........15 (from 30, 40, 76, 138, 174, 244, 421, 708, 952, 1409)
Germany...........7 (from 6, 11, 13, 20, 31, 45, 64, 92, 125, 181, 172, 179)
Spain.................7 (from 8, 12, 27, 45, 90, 86, 220, 326, 510, 647, 787)
In the Scandinavian league...
Deaths per 1 million population
Sweden........545....(from 530, 525, 516, 497, 472, 445, 415, 379, 337)
Denmark......105....(from 105, 104, 104, 104, 102, 101, 98, 96, 93, 89)
Finland..........59.....(from 59, 59, 59, 59, 59, 58, 56, 55, 52, 46)
Norway.........46.....(from 46, 46, 45, 44.66, 44, 43.57, 43.38, 42.83)
Total number of deaths for the Scandinavians:
Sweden.......5500
Denmark......609
Finland.........329
Norway........252
*Edit*
I should also mention that after 3 weeks of rises in cases, the USA saw their first weekly increase in deaths since 16th April. [Post edited 11 Jul 2020 0:02]
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| C-19 Updates on 10:48 - Jul 17 with 1984 views | GaryT |
Sweden's routine lately is to change the number of deaths for the last month every day! This week adding an extra 132, very bizarre. France are this weeks EU risers but they also re-jigged their numbers a little this week along with Ireland and of course, the USA. The UK's death toll continues to fall but there was a slight increase in cases this weak from 3877 last week to 4093.
The five Latin American countries are still topping the rolling 7 day/10m pop chart but after 5 consecutive falls, Chile drop from 1st to 4th. After 3 small weekly decreases, an increase this week sees Peru top the 7 day rolling chart. With the 2nd wave well underway in the USA, they now climb back up to 6th but a long way behind the Latin Americans.
Sweden continue their downward curve with only 21 deaths this week so whilst they had a disastrous start with so many deaths in care homes (as many countries did), they do seem to have controlled the spread to the general public. They've done that with only social distancing rules and largely without masks but the problem with Sweden is who to compare them to? If you look to the UK they have performed better without the financial and emotional costs of a lockdown but if you compare them to their Nordic neighbours, they are pariahs and still banned from entering those countries (but the other three can mingle with each other quite happily). The only definitive conclusion you can come to when comparing Sweden to other countries is that the UK have been totally crap at controlling it.
South Africa have been averaging over 12k cases a day for the last week and their rolling 7 day average puts them 7th behind the USA for deaths so have been included in the charts.
For the 7 days from 10th July to 16th July, here's the latest numbers...
Total deaths
USA.......141,118....(from 135,791, 131,413, 127,498, 123,205, 118,490)
.................+5327....(from +4378, +3915, +4293, +4715, +5704, +6913)
Brazil.......76,822....(from 69,254, 61,990, 55,054, 47,869, 41,058, 34,039)
................+7568.....(from +7264, +6936, +7185, +6811, +7019, +7275)
UK...........45,119....(from 44,602, 43,995, 43,230, 42,288, 41,279, 39,904)
..................+517.....(from +607, +765, +942, +1009, +1375, +1684, +2178)
Mexico....36,906....(from 32,796, 28,510, 24,324, 19,080, 15,137, 11,729)
................+4110.....(from +4286, +4186, +5244, +3723, +3628, +3132)
Italy.........35,017....(from 34,926, 34,818, 34,678, 34,514, 34,167, 33,689)
...................+91......(from +108, +140, +225, +347, +478, +547, +656)
France.....30,138....(from 29,978, 29,875, 29,752, 29,603, 29,346, 29,065)
..................+159.....(from +104, +123, +149, +257, +281, +403, +447, +790)
Spain.......28,416....(from 28,401, 28,368, 28,330, 28,315, 28,259, 28,133)
...................+15......(from +33, +38, +15, +56, +126, +211, +420, +404)
Iran..........13,608....(from 12,305, 11,106, 10,130, 9272, 8584, 8071, 7627)
…..............+1303....(from +1199, +976, +858, +688, +513, +444, +378)
Peru.........12,615....(from 11,314, 10,045, 8761, 7461, 6109, 5031, 4099)
.................+1301....(from +1269, +1284, +1300, +1352, +1078, +932, +951)
Belgium....9792......(from 9778, 9761, 9726, 9683, 9636, 9548, 9388, 9186)
..................+14.......(from +17, +35, +43, +47, +88, +160, +202, +283)
Germany....9157.....(from 9125, 9064, 9012, 8944, 8849, 8736, 8570, 8309)
...................+32......(from +61, +52, +66, +95, +115, +166, +261, +381)
Chile..........7290.....(from 6682, 5920, 4903, 3841, 2648, 1356, 890, 589)
…..............+608......(from +762, +1017, +1062, +1193, +1292, +466, +301)
Columbia...6029.....(from 4714, 3641, 2654, 1950, 1488, 1087, 822, 652)
….............+1315.....(from +1073, +987, +704, +462, +401, +265, +170)
Sweden.....5593.....(from 5572, 5506, 5396, 5228, 5020, 4773, 4502, 4199)
...................+21......(from +66, +110, +168, +208, +247, +271, +303, +365)
S. Africa....4669......(from 3720, 2844, 2292, 1737, 1284, 848, 577, 369)
…..............+949......(from +876, +552, +555, +453, +436, +271, +208, +131)
Iraq............3522.....(from 2882, 2160, 1437, 856, 457, 271, 179, 140, 115)
…..............+640......(from +722, +723,+581, +399, +186, +92, +39, +25, +13)
Ireland.......1749.....(from 1743, 1734, 1723, 1710, 1699, 1660, 1635, 1579)
...................+6 ........(from +9, +11, +13, +11, +39, +25, +56, +77, +103)
Deaths Per 1 million population
Belgium........845 (from 843, 842, 839, 835, 831, 824, 810, 792, 768, 726)
UK................664 (from 657, 648, 637, 623, 608, 588, 563, 531, 495, 451)
Spain............608 (from 607, 607, 606, 605, 604, 602, 597, 588, 579, 557)
Italy..............579 (from 578, 576, 573, 570, 564, 556, 547, 536, 518, 494)
Sweden........554 (from 552, 545, 534, 517, 497, 472, 445, 415, 379, 337)
France..........461 (from 459, 457, 456, 453, 449, 445, 439, 432, 420, 398)
USA..............426 (from 410, 397, 385, 372, 358, 341, 320, 298, 270, 237)
Peru..............382 (from 343, 304, 226, 185, 153, 124, 95, 69, 49, 32, 17, 8)
Chile.............381 (from 349, 309, 256, 201, 138, 71, 46, 31, 19, 15, 12, 9, 5)
Brazil............361 (from 326, 291, 259, 225, 193, 160, 126, 94, 66, 43, 27 )
Ireland..........354 (from 353, 351, 349, 346, 344, 336, 331, 319, 304, 283)
Mexico.........286 (from 254, 221, 189, 148, 119, 91,67, 47, 33, 21, 13, 7, 3)
Iran...............185 (from 146, 132, 121, 102, 96, 91, 86, 81,77, 72, 65, 58)
Columbia......118 (from 92, 71, 52, 38, 29, 21, 16, 13, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 1)
Germany.......109 (from 109, 108, 107, 107, 105, 104, 102, 99, 95, 88, 79)
Iraq.................87 (from 71, 53, 35, 21, 11, 8, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1)
S.Africa...........78 (from 63, 48, 39, 29, 22, 14, 10, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1,)
Deaths per 10 million population for the last 7 days (to see whose curve is going up and whose curve is going down).
Peru.............394 (from 385, 389, 394, 410, 327, 283, 288, 267, 194, 174)
Brazil............356 (from 342, 326, 338, 320, 330, 342, 314, 286, 226, 154)
Mexico.........319 (from 332, 324, 407, 289, 281, 243, 94, 145, 117, 75, 59)
Chile.............318 (from 398, 532, 555, 624, 676, 243, 157, 115, 43, 30, 30)
Columbia......258 (from 210, 194, 138, 91, 79, 52, 33, 25, 23, 22, 15, 14, 15)
USA...............161 (from 132, 119, 142, 172, 209, 213, 278, 318, 402, 420)
S.Africa.........160 (from 148, 93, 93, 76, 73, 45, 35, 22, 13, 10, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1)
Iraq...............159 (from 179, 179, 144, 99, 46, 23, 10, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4, 6)
Iran...............155 (from 142, 116, 61, 53, 45, 47, 44, 54, 65, 73, 90, 113)
UK...................76 (from 89, 112, 148, 202, 248, 321, 357, 442, 566, 734)
France.............24 (from 16, 19, 39, 43, 62, 68, 121, 220, 247, 386, 603)
Sweden...........21 (from 65, 109, 166, 206, 244, 268, 300, 361, 418, 530)
Italy.................15 (from 18, 23, 57, 79, 90, 108, 185, 233, 329, 399, 556)
Belgium...........12 (from 15, 30, 40, 76, 138, 174, 244, 421, 708, 952, 1409)
Ireland.............12 (from 18, 22, 26, 22, 79, 50, 113, 156, 209, 346, 888, 624)
Germany...........4 (from 7, 6, 11, 13, 20, 31, 45, 64, 92, 125, 181, 172, 179)
Spain.................3 (from 7, 8, 3, 12, 27, 45, 90, 86, 220, 326, 510, 647, 787)
In the Scandinavian league...
Deaths per 1 million population
Sweden........554....(from 552, 545, 534, 517, 497, 472, 445, 415, 379, 337)
Denmark......105....(from 105, 105, 104, 104, 104, 102, 101, 98, 96, 93, 89)
Finland..........59.....(from 59, 59, 59, 59, 59, 59, 58, 56, 55, 52, 46)
Norway.........47.....(from 46, 46, 46, 45, 44.66, 44, 43.57, 43.38, 42.83)
Total number of deaths for the Scandinavians:
Sweden.......5593
Denmark......610
Finland.........329
Norway.........252 [Post edited 17 Jul 2020 17:54]
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| C-19 Updates on 15:57 - Aug 29 with 1827 views | GaryT |
It's been 6 weeks since I last updated this and whilst I was happy to let it die, there's been quite a few changes recently so I thought it was worth a quick update. One of the reasons for doing an update now is because the UK is at a critical point with kids going back to school and Boris keen on getting people back into their offices to boost the coffers of local businesses and transport companies (primarily). With case numbers now back to where they were in mid June, we can expect to see the recent rise continue in the coming weeks with possibly a sharp rise by the end of next month when the back to school/back to the office directives have kicked in.
Belgium's unwanted record of having the highest number of 'deaths per million population' has finally come to an end as Peru now tops that particular chart. Belgium adjusted their total down by 127 a few days ago whilst Peru added an extra 3887 on 24th July and 3935 on 14th August which helped catapult them to the top. These lump sum additions however will help lower their Excess Deaths total which in July was reported as being the highest in the World*. Read more about Peru's plight here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/south-america/peru/articles/peru (If you've reached your limit of articles, a quick Ctrl+A, Ctrl+C and then a Ctrl+V to a text doc works).
For week ending 27th August, here's the top 10 list for Deaths Per 1 million population.
Peru..............852 (From 813, 658, 613, 570, 417, 376, 337, 299, 260, 220)
Belgium........851 (from 850, 844, 840, 838, 836, 835, 833, 832, 829, 825)
Spain............620 (from 616, 612, 609, 608, 608, 607, 606, 580, 580, 580)
UK................610 (from 609, 608, 607, 606, 604, 603, 600, 596, 590, 583)
Italy..............586 (from 586, 583, 582, 581, 580, 579, 577, 575, 573, 570)
Sweden........576 (from 575, 574, 572, 570, 567, 561, 553, 544, 531,512)
Chile.............574 (from 553, 533, 512, 485, 456, 376, 344, 301, 247, 189)
Brazil............553 (from 522, 490, 457, 424, 389, 354, 320, 285, 253, 219)
USA..............543 (from 523, 501, 478, 455, 432, 415, 400, 387, 368, 355)
Mexico..........481 (from 453,423, 385, 352, 319, 286, 254, 221, 189, 148)
As you can see half of the top 10 are still occupied by Euro countries despite their peaks passing several months ago. This will change soon as the USA and Latin Americans are catching up fast with the Euro countries effectively standing still (for now).
I've generally ignored case numbers as there are far too many variables to make much sense of them and even less now that asymptomatics account for roughly 40% of all new cases. I've included the top 10 here just for the hell of it now that the three countries with by far and away the most (USA, Brazil and India) top both the Case and Death charts.
Total Cases as of 28th August
USA.....................5,917,439** (worldometers says 6,096, 235)
Brazil...................3,804,803
India....................3,463,972
Russia.....................980,405
Peru........................629,961
South Africa............620,123
Colombia................590,520
Mexico....................585,738
Spain.......................439,286
Chile........................405,972
Total deaths
USA.....................181,773
Brazil...................119,509
India......................62,713
Mexico..................62,594
UK.........................41,486
Italy.......................35,472
France...................30,596
Spain.....................29,011
Peru.......................28,471
Iran........................21,249
It's quite a stat that the top two countries have almost as many deaths (301,282) as the next 8 countries combined (311,952). Trump and Bolsonaro are great examples of how not to tackle COVID-19.
Case numbers continue to rise around Europe and whilst the death tolls are considerably lower 2nd time around (for reasons previously covered like better treatment and younger, pre and asymptomatic people being tested), the number of deaths is slowly starting to rise.
Of the 4 worst hit Euro countries, Spain has seen a steady increase in case numbers since the start of July and saw their deaths starting to increase from the start of August. They are now averaging 7600 cases and 25 deaths a day for the last week.
France is roughly a month behind Spain with their case numbers increasing from early August. They are now averaging 4700 cases and 13 deaths a day for the last week.
The UK, whilst also seeing a slow rise in case numbers since early August are much better than Spain and France with only 1200 cases a day but the deaths are similar to France with 11/12 deaths a day for the last week.
Italy, who were the first country to be badly hit after China, are fairing much better at the moment with only a small increase in cases in the last month. For the last 7 days they have also had 1200 cases a day but only averaging 6/7 deaths a day for the last week.
The top 10 for the 7 Day rolling Deaths Per 10 million Population (for 20th to 27th August)
Colombia......433 (from 420, 434, 426, 409, 306, 252, 207, 192, 123, 84)
Bolivia..........422 (from 347, 378, 494, 411, 330, 312, 322, 278, 168, 143)
Peru..............391 (from 1552, 450, 428, 1530, 409, 389, 385, 386, 402, 410)
Argentina......381 (from 227, 238, 179, 153, 101, 87, 67, 59, 38,39,33, 18)
Brazil............309 (from 324, 326, 335, 346, 348, 348, 344, 320, 344, 321)
Mexico.........279 (from 295, 385, 336, 323, 332, 318, 332, 323, 407, 289)
Chile.............215 (from 195, 216, 269, 291, 803, 320, 429, 534, 583, 596)
USA...............197 (from 216, 235, 228, 227, 174,154, 128 184, 129, 145)
S.Africa.........182 (from 238, 288, 303, 262, 250, 143, 144, 92, 89, 78, 70)
Iraq................136 (from 132, 123, 122, 139, 151, 162, 181, 179, 138, 86, 42)
As you can see from the list above, whilst some Latin American countries are slowly improving from when they topped this chart 6 weeks ago, others have worsened, in particular Colombia, Bolivia and Argentina. Elsewhere, Indonesia (4th largest population in the world) is one to watch as they recorded their highest number of cases yesterday (3003) and averaging 95 deaths a day for the last week. That's still quite a low number for a country of its size but there's been very little sign of things slowing down there since March so as I say, one to watch.
*Excess Death records are only produced by a few countries and mainly those from developed nations so it's impossible to say if Peru has the worst excess deaths in the World as the majority of 2nd/3rd world countries do not provide these records.
**All data is now taken from the Github/OurWorldInData site ( https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data) which differs slightly for some countries when compared to worldometers.info. The data reported here is updated at a different time of day to the Worldometer site so the EU data is recorded as the following day but when searching around the web, the data on Github/OWID tends to be what is reported in the media.
Whilst mentioning the Worldometers site, on there China added 1290 additional deaths on 17th April but since then it has only reported 1 death on April 27th and 1 death on May 17th. The Github/Our World In Data site shows China with 80 deaths since 14th July (over 1 a day in the last 2 weeks and almost 3 a day for the 2 weeks before that) so quite why worldometers aren't reporting that I don't know.
OK, not that quick an update but that's all for now. [Post edited 24 Sep 2020 22:36]
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| C-19 Updates on 02:38 - Oct 18 with 1605 views | GaryT |
Back by no demand and 2 months on from the last post, here's what's new.
To absolutely nobody's surprise, the loosening of restrictions to get kids back to school and their parents back to work has seen the number of cases in the UK rise rapidly in the last month. Deaths have been increasing rapidly as well and with what looks like a 2 week lag, this would suggest there will be a sharp rise in deaths in the coming weeks. Tier 3 restrictions have been introduced to parts of the country this week and these could spread to the rest of the UK if the deaths and cases continue to rise this sharply. It's worth mentioning that tier 3 restrictions allow restaurants, pubs and bars to open provided they provide substantial meals. This is not the case for some regions of Spain where bars and restaurants were forced to close on Friday. Quite why there isn't a Tier 4 in the UK with everything bar the supermarkets/chemists/doctors closed I don't know, maybe this is as far Boris thinks he can push a 2nd lockdown?
The last 4 weeks for the UK looks like this:
w/e 15/10.....110,369 cases (15,767 per day)...640 deaths (91 per day)
w/e 08/10.......91,011 cases (13,002 per day)...372 deaths (53 per day)
w/e 01/10.......43,535 cases (6219 per day)......281 deaths (40 per day)
w/e 24/09.......31,510 cases (4501 per day)......178 deaths (25 per day)
Around the World Argentina, who hardly got a mention 2 months ago, has been sitting at the top of the 7 day rolling chart for the last 5 weeks with twice as many deaths (per 10 million population) than Israel in 3rd place. Argentina replaced Colombia who themselves had been at the top of this chart for the 5 weeks prior to that so it's safe to say that South America is still the current epicenter for the pandemic.
Spain is the first of the Euro countries to re-enter the chart and with most of the South American countries on the downward slope of their first wave, we are likely to see more EU countries re-enter this chart in the coming weeks. Israel is the highest new entry on the list mainly due to the Ultra Orthodox community who stubbornly resist social distancing measures. There's a high price to pay for their mass gatherings as they account for roughly 40% of the cases despite being roughly 10% of the population.
The 7 Day rolling Deaths Per 10 million Population (for 9th to 15th October)
Argentina......595 (from 1167, 565, 544, 321, 328, 289, 341, 226, 238, 179)
Mexico........372* (from 188, 209, 230, 223, 254, 289, 278, 295, 384, 335)
Israel.............299 (from 275, 267, 174, 121, 92, 102, 104, 152, 80, 80, 66)
Ecuador.........294 (from 219, 104, 99, 166, 2303, 118, 149, 91, 77, 126, 116)
Colombia......221 (from 221, 231, 245, 248, 279, 334, 424, 432, 420, 433)
Iran...............201 (from 177, 158, 143, 114, 103, 106, 110, 117, 141, 173)
Spain............185 (from 153, 183, 153, 151, 99, 51, 39, 44, 22, 12, 3, 3, 3, 7)
Chile.............170 (from 182, 207, 150, 186, 187, 185, 215, 195, 216, 268)
Brazil............165 (from 201, 234, 229, 261, 223, 287, 308, 324, 326, 334)
Panama........164 (from 175, 187, 215, 189, 198, 226, 242, 286, 346, 413)
Bolivia..........158 (from 194, 200, 216, 283, 1658, 407, 420, 346, 377, 492)
USA..............153 (from 147, 151, 154, 181, 153, 182, 197, 216, 234, 227)
Peru.............152 (from 165, 179, 247, 246, 295, 343, 390, 1547, 449, 427)
S.Africa........152 (from 86, 89, 84, 90, 131, 149, 181, 237, 288, 303, 262)
*Mexico added 3013 extra deaths on the 9th October to artificially boost their numbers, they would have been close to the bottom of the chart with an average daily figure.
Cases worldwide continue to increase with record numbers being posted almost daily. Friday passed the 400k+ for the fist time with 413,175 and with the temperatures dropping rapidly now in the northern hemisphere, this is likely to continue through to spring. This rise is not being reflected in deaths though with the Worlds weekly totals remaining almost unchanged for the last 8 weeks. Fingers crossed the health services can keep it that way.
w/e 15/10 — 39,190
w/e 08/10 — 38,910
w/e 01/10 — 36,850
w/e 24/09 — 36,917
w/e 17/09 — 37,213
w/e 10/09 — 40,651
w/e 03/09 - 37,652
w/e 27.08 — 38,222
In the last update Peru had just replaced Belgium as the country with the highest numbers of deaths per 1 million population but the top of that list was still dominated by Euro countries with Spain, UK, Italy and Sweden behind Belgium. That's all changed now that the South Americans have caught up and as of w/e 15/10, the chart now looks like this:
Peru..............1012 (From 997, 981, 963, 938, 913, 884, 850, 811, 656)
Belgium........886 (from 873, 863, 859, 856, 855, 853, 851, 848, 843, 838)
Spain............718 (from 699, 684, 666, 650, 635, 625, 620, 616, 612, 609)
Bolivia..........715 (from 699, 680, 660, 638, 610, 444, 403, 361, 327, 289)
Brazil............712 (from 696, 676, 652, 630, 603, 581, 553, 522, 489, 457)
Chile.............700 (from 683, 665, 644, 629, 611, 592, 574, 552, 533, 511)
Ecuador.........692 (from 663, 641, 630, 620, 604, 373, 359, 347, 338, 330)
Mexico..........656 (from 619, 600, 579, 557, 534, 509, 480, 452, 423, 384)
USA..............654 (from 639, 624, 609, 593, 575, 560, 542, 522, 501, 477)
UK................635 (from 625, 620, 616, 613, 612, 611, 610, 609, 608, 607)
Italy...............600 (from 597, 594, 592, 590, 589, 587, 587, 586, 583, 582)
Sweden.........584 (from 583, 582, 581, 579, 578, 577, 576, 574, 573, 570)
Panama.........581 (from 565, 547, 529, 507, 488, 468, 443, 421, 393, 358)
I won't bother with the total number of deaths chart as it's a bit irrelevant without taking into account the size of the population but I can say that Sweden are still doing much worse than Norway, Denmark and Finland and still doing better than Italy, UK and Spain.
I won't list them but there are quite a few countries that have just started their first wave (hence the ever increasing number of cases) so we'll see how things look closer to Christmas. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 12:22 - Oct 18 with 1467 views | nix |
Thank for producing this Gary.
I know you're doing the stats rather than in depth analysis but do you know if there is any reason why Sweden is still doing better than UK,Italy and Spain? |  | | |
| C-19 Updates on 13:09 - Oct 18 with 1425 views | daveB |
| C-19 Updates on 12:22 - Oct 18 by nix |
Thank for producing this Gary.
I know you're doing the stats rather than in depth analysis but do you know if there is any reason why Sweden is still doing better than UK,Italy and Spain? |
different culture and a lot easier to social distance over there |  | | |
| C-19 Updates on 16:18 - Oct 18 with 1355 views | GaryT |
| C-19 Updates on 13:09 - Oct 18 by daveB |
different culture and a lot easier to social distance over there |
That's two of the reasons but as always, it's never that simple.
I've been asking myself the same question recently Nix and as per usual, there's not an easy answer. There's gaps in the evidence and one massive one is “How many Swedes have been infected with the virus?”. This should be a simple question to answer but because not everybody has been tested and those who were asymptomatic at the start of the outbreak certainly weren't, we just don't know the answer to that. Then add in the fact that antibodies diminish after a few months and it can become impossible to know (with the current testing) if you've had the disease; something asymptomatics would really like to know.
The reason I'm starting with this question is because something isn't right when you compare the Swedish case graphs to the deaths graphs. This site shows both graphs https://www.thelocal.se/20200925/graphs-and-maps-that-explain-the-state-of-the-c and what you can see is that the spike in deaths came months before the spike in cases, which is of course impossible.
If we take the deaths graph as a better guide to the rate of the infection, we see that in Mid April (16th) they had a 7 day average of 99 deaths a day. Then compare that to the cases for the week before (factoring in a 7 day lag which was the norm at the start of the outbreak) and we see 532 cases a day (as a 7 day average for 9th April). Now let's jump forward to the peak in cases (stay with me) and we see a 7 day average on 18th June of 1089 cases and a 7 day average on 28th June of 1066 cases. Scroll down to the deaths (factoring in a 2 week lag which was the average at this time due to earlier detection) and we see a 7 day average of 17 deaths per day on 2nd July and 12 deaths per day on the 12th July. If we take the ratio of cases to deaths in June/July and use that for early April, we get a very different picture for the true number of cases back then. To put that simply:
09/04 - average of 532 cases per day = 99 deaths per day a week later.
18/06 — average of 1089 cases per day = 17 deaths per day 2 weeks later
28/06 — average of 1066 cases per day = 12 deaths per day 2 weeks later
09/04 = a ratio of 18.54% of cases led to deaths
18/06 = a ratio of 1.56% of cases led to deaths
28.06 = a ratio of 1.12% of cases led to deaths.
If we ignore the variables of deaths being misdiagnosed and better treatment later into the pandemic and say that the ratio of cases to deaths should really stay the same, what happens when we take the 1.12% ratio in June/July and use in April when testing wasn't really happening?
99 deaths per day (9th April) would equate to 9690 cases per day and not 532 that was being reported.
So if Sweden has actually had far more cases than they are reporting, (remember they were hardly reporting any cases when their deaths were spiking), that could explain why there are videos of young Swedes on trains, not wearing masks and not infecting each other....because they've already had it. (50% didn't know as they were asymptomatic and the rest had mild symptoms). We know that the Swedes live a much more socially distanced lifestyle, the young are very responsible and will not put their (also very sensible and socially distanced) elders at risk and this helps massively in slowing down the spread.
Case numbers are rising now but testing has doubled since mid August and as Donald says, “the more you test, the more cases you find” (leaving off the bit where he says to please stop testing because it makes him look bad). The important fact here though is that their deaths haven't been increasing and as long as they can maintain their sensible approach to protecting the vulnerable, it should stay that way.
I'm overlooking the mistakes the Swedes made with their care homes in the beginning (as many countries did) which boosted the death toll in the early months and there is another discussion to be had about the effectiveness of mask and how they don't stop you from catching the disease. All it takes is a few infectious people on a train without masks and you all might as well remove your masks for all the good they will do but that's for another day. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 17:26 - Oct 18 with 1329 views | nix |
| C-19 Updates on 16:18 - Oct 18 by GaryT |
That's two of the reasons but as always, it's never that simple.
I've been asking myself the same question recently Nix and as per usual, there's not an easy answer. There's gaps in the evidence and one massive one is “How many Swedes have been infected with the virus?”. This should be a simple question to answer but because not everybody has been tested and those who were asymptomatic at the start of the outbreak certainly weren't, we just don't know the answer to that. Then add in the fact that antibodies diminish after a few months and it can become impossible to know (with the current testing) if you've had the disease; something asymptomatics would really like to know.
The reason I'm starting with this question is because something isn't right when you compare the Swedish case graphs to the deaths graphs. This site shows both graphs https://www.thelocal.se/20200925/graphs-and-maps-that-explain-the-state-of-the-c and what you can see is that the spike in deaths came months before the spike in cases, which is of course impossible.
If we take the deaths graph as a better guide to the rate of the infection, we see that in Mid April (16th) they had a 7 day average of 99 deaths a day. Then compare that to the cases for the week before (factoring in a 7 day lag which was the norm at the start of the outbreak) and we see 532 cases a day (as a 7 day average for 9th April). Now let's jump forward to the peak in cases (stay with me) and we see a 7 day average on 18th June of 1089 cases and a 7 day average on 28th June of 1066 cases. Scroll down to the deaths (factoring in a 2 week lag which was the average at this time due to earlier detection) and we see a 7 day average of 17 deaths per day on 2nd July and 12 deaths per day on the 12th July. If we take the ratio of cases to deaths in June/July and use that for early April, we get a very different picture for the true number of cases back then. To put that simply:
09/04 - average of 532 cases per day = 99 deaths per day a week later.
18/06 — average of 1089 cases per day = 17 deaths per day 2 weeks later
28/06 — average of 1066 cases per day = 12 deaths per day 2 weeks later
09/04 = a ratio of 18.54% of cases led to deaths
18/06 = a ratio of 1.56% of cases led to deaths
28.06 = a ratio of 1.12% of cases led to deaths.
If we ignore the variables of deaths being misdiagnosed and better treatment later into the pandemic and say that the ratio of cases to deaths should really stay the same, what happens when we take the 1.12% ratio in June/July and use in April when testing wasn't really happening?
99 deaths per day (9th April) would equate to 9690 cases per day and not 532 that was being reported.
So if Sweden has actually had far more cases than they are reporting, (remember they were hardly reporting any cases when their deaths were spiking), that could explain why there are videos of young Swedes on trains, not wearing masks and not infecting each other....because they've already had it. (50% didn't know as they were asymptomatic and the rest had mild symptoms). We know that the Swedes live a much more socially distanced lifestyle, the young are very responsible and will not put their (also very sensible and socially distanced) elders at risk and this helps massively in slowing down the spread.
Case numbers are rising now but testing has doubled since mid August and as Donald says, “the more you test, the more cases you find” (leaving off the bit where he says to please stop testing because it makes him look bad). The important fact here though is that their deaths haven't been increasing and as long as they can maintain their sensible approach to protecting the vulnerable, it should stay that way.
I'm overlooking the mistakes the Swedes made with their care homes in the beginning (as many countries did) which boosted the death toll in the early months and there is another discussion to be had about the effectiveness of mask and how they don't stop you from catching the disease. All it takes is a few infectious people on a train without masks and you all might as well remove your masks for all the good they will do but that's for another day. |
That's amazing Gary thanks so much for this. I'm wondering what we can learn from this. It seems to imply that there is not much point in healthy young people isolating, providing they are careful around the older and vulnerable people. However, for cultural reasons, we're not so likely to achieve that here. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 18:02 - Oct 18 with 1290 views | ted_hendrix |
Hello Gary, keep the info coming it's appreciated.
I've been looking at the daily Europe new confirmed Covid-19 cases per million people and was a bit surprised to see that the figures for the Czech Republic-Belgium the Netherlands and France were considerably above the UK and 'spiking' quite badly, the Czech Republic especially so.
Japan has seemingly got to grips with things as I posted on the 13th October............
Keep safe.
Japan
Population; 126.5 million.
Population of Tokyo; 9.2 million.
No lockdown.
Certain restrictions.
International travel is banned/restricted, if you are allowed to return you are tested at the airport and then quarantined under supervision for 14 days.
Virtually 99% mask wearing since day 1
As of two days ago the total number of deaths in Japan = 1,646 with 90,694 cases. |  |
| My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic. |
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| C-19 Updates on 22:21 - Oct 18 with 1231 views | GaryT |
Japan got to grips with it very early on but they've also had a bit of luck according to this piece on the BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847
If we create a list of what worked in their favour it would be:
1) Wore masks since 1918
2) Japan has the lowest rates of coronary heart disease and obesity in the developed world. (CDC found people with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes are six times more likely to be hospitalised if they get Covid-19 and 12 times more likely to die).
3) Japanese culture has less hugs and kisses
4) Japan discovered early that it was airborne and was caught at venues where people were singing. Venues like concerts, karaoke bars, parties, cheering at clubs, exercising in gyms and talking in close proximity in bars. With this info they informed the public to avoid “Enclosed spaces with poor ventilation", "Crowded places with many people" and "Close contact settings such as face-to-face conversations". "I think that probably worked better than just telling people to stay at home," Dr Jindai says.
5) In early April, the government ordered a state of emergency. But the stay-at-home request was voluntary. Non-essential businesses were asked to close, but there was no legal penalty for refusing. Despite not ordering people to stay at home, on the whole, they did. "It was lucky but also surprising," Prof Shibuya says. "Japan's mild lockdowns seems to have had a real lockdown effect. Japanese people complied despite the lack of draconian measures."
6) Japan's track and trace system goes back to the 1950s when it battled a wave of tuberculosis.
7) Japan may have had Covid before. Not Covid-19, but something similar that could have left behind "historical immunity". There are two types of antibody - IgM and IgG (Immunoglobulin G). "In a primary (novel) viral infection the IgM response usually comes first,""Then the IgG response appears later. But in secondary cases (previous exposure) the lymphocyte already has memory, and so only the IgG response increases rapidly." "When we looked at the tests we were astonished... in all patients the IgG response came quickly, and the IgM response was later and weak. It looked like they had been previously exposed to a very similar virus."
Number 7 is a real bonus in fighting a novel corona virus but 100% mask compliance would also kill it in its tracks so for me, these are the two things that really helped them.
I'll do a separate post about the rest of Europe as I think it deserves one.
*Edit*
I should also add what Ted said about..
8) International travel is banned/restricted, if you are allowed to return you are tested at the airport and then quarantined under supervision for 14 days. Also extremely important. [Post edited 18 Oct 2020 22:52]
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| C-19 Updates on 22:48 - Oct 18 with 1202 views | GaryT |
| C-19 Updates on 17:26 - Oct 18 by nix |
That's amazing Gary thanks so much for this. I'm wondering what we can learn from this. It seems to imply that there is not much point in healthy young people isolating, providing they are careful around the older and vulnerable people. However, for cultural reasons, we're not so likely to achieve that here. |
Talking to a few (young) waiters here in Barcelona (and a 19 year old daughter of a friend who also works in Barcelona), I've found out that they all caught it back in April/May. Obviously that's a very small cross section but young people are going to mix with their friends and socialise more so there is a good chance a lot of them have already caught it but until there's mass testing (and it needs to be done before their antibodies fade), we may never know.
There's a line that stretches from "It's a hoax!" to "run for your lives it's the end of the world!" and where your country sits on that line will dictate how well it responds to the virus. From what a couple of people have said in the Corona thread about most people wearing masks on public transport and in shops, it sounds like the UK is finally moving away from its drunk uncle at a wedding (The USA) where mask wearing is more about who you vote for than saving lives. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 12:47 - Oct 19 with 1138 views | GaryT |
March seems a long time ago now and we've kind of got used to how things are so it's easy to miss that some countries are only now seeing their first wave of infections. The six I have pictured below all had a few cases in April but then it either went away or remained at very low levels. Then suddenly, almost in unison, they all saw a large increase in cases in September.
I knew that many countries in Europe were seeing a 2nd wave so just for the hell of it, I went through this list https://www.countries-ofthe-world.com/countries-of-europe.html to see which countries had managed to get a handle on it and avoid a 2nd wave. I took a screenshot of every country and all bar Kazakhstan* are clearly showing a rise in cases since September. Those closest to home are shown here:
*Even though Kazakhstan are not showing a large rise in cases, a closer look shows they are seeing a slight rise in the last month so effectively, that's everyone.
So whilst it's tempting to point the finger at our own leaders for not controlling the outbreak, there's something going on that is out of their hands, or so it would seem. | | | |
| C-19 Updates on 18:37 - Nov 6 with 998 views | GaryT |
Well that escalated quickly.
Worldwide cases have now reached 600k a day and yes, I still don't pay too much attention to cases as they now include asymptomatic and mild cases (which they didn't back in the first wave) but it's worth mentioning that the numbers are going up and going up fast. Unfortunately the daily number of deaths in the world has also reached record highs with 9056 last Wednesday and 8704 on Thursday. Previous record was 8530 on April 17th.
For this update I'll just do the one chart (7 day rolling average number of deaths) as it gives a good snapshot of how quickly things have changed. A few weeks ago the epicentre was still in Latin America but with only Argentina seeing high numbers, it's now swung back to Europe. To show you how quickly it has changed, in July the top three countries were Peru, Chile and Brazil but they don't feature at all now with only Colombia and Mexico appearing near the bottom of the table. I've expanded it to include smaller countries, the smallest being Montenegro with a population of 628k and after that, the smallest is Slovenia with just over 2m. The reason for this is to show how many Euro countries are seeing high numbers based on their population size. With these smaller countries included the chart looks very different with Czechia being far and away the worst affected country for the last few weeks. Czechia has a population of 10.7m which is just 600k more than Sweden who, despite seeing higher case numbers recently (like everyone else), have seen very little movement in the number of deaths, as expected. On the other hand, Czechia is repeating some mistakes the UK made like top brass ignoring their own rules and youngsters thinking they'll be alright jack. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54639351
One last thing, Spain again changed the criteria for what constitutes a Covid death and added 1326 on Wednesday so they will drop back down again next week. I'll stop at USA as those from across the pond could do with a bit of good news right now (Put the matches down Donald!).
7 Day rolling Deaths Per 10 million Population (for 30th October to 5th November)
Czechia.........1361 (from 873, 539, 320, 162, 93, 68, 35, 18, 7,13, 12, 3, 13)
Belgium........1033 (from 625, 246, 170, 92, 47, 26, 16, 16, 19, 25, 58, 45)
Montenegro...700 (from 509, 525, 430, 334, 287, 398, 191, 159, 255, 127)
Armenia.........688 (from 509, 276, 148, 121, 57, 64, 61, 71, 78, 94, 91, 121)
Spain*............609 (from 239, 207, 185, 153, 183, 153, 151, 99, 51, 39, 44)
Bosnia & H'....602 (from 397, 223, 153, 180, 180, 186, 165, 147, 171, 195)
Slovenia.........558 (from 183, 91, 34, 14, 24, 10, 0, 14, 0, 14, 10, 24, 5, 10)
Argentina.......540 (from 563, 573, 595, 1167, 565, 544, 321, 328, 289, 341)
Hungary.........531 (from 341, 262, 159, 121, 74, 47, 36, 9, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 0, 1)
Macedonia.....518 (from 485, 254, 178, 158, 139, 201, 178, 130, 149, 110)
France............442 (from 266, 255, 91, 75, 76, 63, 38, 17, 22, 12, 15, 10, 10)
Poland............429 (from 264, 168, 112, 74, 45, 28, 24, 18, 22, 21, 22, 20)
Croatia...........393 (from 244, 144, 61, 71, 56, 51, 73, 36, 39, 17, 20, 15, 32)
Bulgaria.........388 (from 215, 172, 81, 69, 66, 50, 61, 87, 81, 85, 65, 97, 68)
Romania........384 (from 321, 242, 207, 197, 143, 138, 139, 155, 156, 164)
Switzerland....368 (from 113, 47, 32, 5, 12, 21, 23, 9, 5, 5, 6, 9, 0, 0, 2, 2, 1)
Iran................340 (from 281, 237, 201, 177, 158, 143, 114, 103, 106, 110)
Georgia..........321 (from 253, 158, 115, 60, 35, 15, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3, 0)
Jordan............321 (182, 251, 123, 68, 25, 9, 7, 4, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)
Italy................308 (from 177, 90, 38, 28, 22, 19, 11, 13, 6, 8, 31, 7, 9, 8, 14)
UK..................304 (from 223, 148, 94, 55, 41, 26, 13, 12, 7, 10, 10, 13, 10)
Moldova........303 (from 246, 288, 268, 213, 188, 211, 156, 178, 141, 131)
Portugal.........294 (from 163, 110, 76, 68, 42, 49, 28, 22, 20, 21, 22, 24, 15)
Netherlands...280 (from 192, 122, 85, 65, 64, 21, 8, 6, 12, 20, 12, 4, 3, 1, 2)
Colombia.......247 (from 253, 227, 221, 231, 245, 248, 279, 334, 424, 432)
Mexico...........226 (from 224, 194, 372, 188, 209, 230, 223, 254, 289, 278)
Ukraine..........224 (from 190, 160, 145, 107, 97, 84, 83, 74, 58, 59, 35, 47)
Panama..........187 (from 152, 180, 164, 175, 187, 215, 189, 198, 226, 242)
USA................182 (from 166, 161, 153, 147, 151, 154, 181, 153, 182, 197)
That should do it until Christmas unless there are any major developments before then.
*Edit* One tiny update, Belgium's numbers for 5th November didn't come in until today so I've changed those. Belgium is having a bad time of it again and as well as appearing 2nd in this list, have retaken the top spot back from Peru in the "Deaths per 1m/pop" chart. [Post edited 7 Nov 2020 13:11]
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