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Predictions - 2nd
Predictions - 2nd
Thursday, 6th Aug 2009 09:31

Well into the automatic promotion spots now in our annual pre-season predictions, and this time we take a peek at Notts County who we have down for 2nd.

2nd - Notts County

There's many reasons to be sceptical about what's happened at Notts County over the Summer. "Mysterious Middle Eastern consortium" is the sort of phrase to get any supporter excited in this day and age, and for supporters of a side which has done precisely nothing for a number of years now, you can't blame them for looking for an escape route from competing with the likes of Accrington and Macclesfield.

Will it work out for the Magpies? Well the majority of takeovers tend not to work out, especially those that come with some sort of fanfare and promises about where the side will be in five years time. It's reality that for every knight in shining armour, there are nine other unscrupulous owners looking to make money out of a lower division football club by fair means or foul.

It is far too early to judge the new owners, but even if the Middle East refers to the Middle of the East Midlands, what it has done has provided a club that was three years behind Dale last season according to their manager, with a massive shot in the arm to awake it from a previously comatose state.

All of a sudden, everyone is talking about Notts County. They are no longer the small footnote in their City's football pages, and it has done enough to prick the consciousness of many a lapsed County fan throughout both the City and the country.

"I've always been a bit of a County fan deep down" will be a much uttered phrase as the Mapgie bandwagon starts its engine. They had just over 4000 for their first home game of last season. It might be three times that for the opening game at the weekend.

Looking at the County squad, contrary to popular conceptions, they haven't actually spent that much money so far. They've spent more than they would have done in your average Notts County Summer, and it is with funds in excess of their peers, but they've not gone Real Madrid style crazy with their spending, they've bought League Two players that were targets for other League Two sides, suggesting there's not this limitless pot of money that has been made out.

Well apart from the Sven thing. Sven's appointment to Notts County sends a massive message out to everyone that Notts County mean business. In almost thirty years of watching basement level football, I can't think of anything remotely close to this. It's another message to supporters and potential signings that they are serious over this.

For example, Karl Hawley signed for County this week, after apparently turning down approaches from Carlisle and Shrewsbury. If you've got the choice of three men to work for, do you choose Sven Goran Eriksson, Greg Abbott or Paul Simpson?

Of course, Sven is here as the much lauded director of football, which has always been a bit of a mystery in this country and has never really been a massive success. He's made all the right noises that he's to take County to the promised land of the Premier League and will be staying for the duration of his five year contract.

But with Sven's pedigree, will he be content with a brief described by the BBC as "transfer negotiations and scouting, health, fitness and development of players, training facilities, the youth academy and establishing community and overseas links"? If that's a part time role then fair enough, but if its day to day, full time position, where will be his role end and McParland the manager's end?

Which of course puts pressure on McParland, who would undoubtedly would have been sacked in November anyway based on past history for the Magpies. If Sven is seen to be pulling the strings or lurking in the shadows, it makes it almost impossible for McParland to succeed. There'll be Sven's players and there'll be McParland's player and if things aren't going the way they expect them to do, players will be keen to back the long term winner, and if anyone is to leave, it won't be Sven.

The new signings have offered prove to be hugely exciting for supporters of the Magpies. Even early Summer signings such as Ricky Ravenhill and Graeme Lee would have offered some improvement to County from last season, but it is the strikeforce trio of Kawl Hawley, Luke Rodgers and Lee Hughes that have got them animated for the season ahead.

It's difficult to select the pick of those three. Hawley's been leading scorer in this division (26 without a penalty for Carlisle), and then his club's top scorer in League One. At just 27, he'll be approaching the peak of his career.

We all know about Lee Hughes. He's scored goals wherever he's been, and although he's never dropped to this level before, the style of striker that he is should ensure that he fits in no problems at all. He averaged a goal every other game at Oldham last time out. Therefore its frightening to think what he could do at this level.

Rodgers is likely to be third choice out of the three. He's no stranger to Dale fans or other supporters in this division after promising much from his time with Shrewsbury, when the likes of Rodgers and our own Kevin Townson were promising to be the next generation

But there are question marks over the signings that they have made which does present the chance to derail the season. Arguably, they are all players who have suffered from under achievement in their career, and having a number of those sort of players in the same squad will certainly present a challenge for the manager. When push comes to shove will they be able to find that extra gear when they've not done that for some years?

Hawley and Rodgers will go into this season where people are talking about past achievements by them. No doubting their abilities 3 or 4 years ago, but Rodgers grabbed 8 goals in 39 games last season and hardly lit up League 2 with Port Vale, and Hawley scored just two last season, and only five the year before. Which is more relevant as an indication to what they'll be like this season - what they did last season or what they did a few years back?

There's other issues along the same lines. Recent signing Ben Davies and existing County player Matty Hamshaw are both wonderfully talented players, but have tended to perform well in under achieving sides, and have rarely played a part in successful teams.

Of course, this could all wonderfully come together, with Eriksson orchestrating them perfectly. There's the potential there that suggests if everyone plays as they can, then County could run away with things this season. But for me, talk of potential with players in their mid 20's isn't the same as potential with young players, and often points the way towards disappointment.

For all the reasons why this could go wrong for County this season, there are many more why this is going to work out for them. It is undoubtedly a significantly better side than they were last season, and everyone of their new signings will improve them, regardless of whether they play as well as they could do.

This County side will score goals and having the multitude of strikers that they have, defenders will be hesitant about who to pay the most attention to, giving freedom to players who ordinarily wouldn't have such space.

I'm not usually one for predicting promotion for sides who suddenly find themselves with a bit of brass, as its never the walk in the park that its made out to be by others. But the County investment has given the club such a boost, on and off the field, for this season alone, how could it possibly fail?

For me, we'll see the difference throughout the season rather than right now. As other teams attempt some shape shifting with the squad to try and bring in someone a bit different, or call up that youth team player to fill in for an injury, County will simply take advantage of their newly found wealth and Sven's contacts by bringing in a high quality loan player.

When January comes along and the transfer window opens, County will gain the advantage of the teams they are competing with by playing the financial Ace up their sleeve. Conceding too many goals? Let's get some defenders in. Manager not working out? Get rid. Promotion rivals doing too well? Buy their best player.

I don't think they'll win the title as there's too many question marks over McParland and some of the new signings to make the transition an easy one, but it is one which will end in automatic promotion.

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Photo: Action Images via Reuters



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