| A view, not from a man down the pub on 15:24 - Jan 29 with 1103 views | Kilkennyjack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 17:06 - Jan 28 by perchrockjack |
Tom
Is what I say wrong
Would you ever believe anything a Tory stated |
No.
They are the Conservative and Unionist party.
See this months example ...
............
Theresa May has been ridiculed in the European Parliament after her Government took credit for two major EU regulations in the space of a week — without mentioning where the laws had come from.
The Prime Minister spent part of last week hailing the introduction of a ban on credit card charges, as well as mandatory fees for plastic bags in shops, as a win for consumers and the environment.
But despite Conservative-branded publicity being prepared for social media and a major set-piece speech about the environment off the back of the latter policy, the two laws were in fact EU regulations and directives.
........
See. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 15:48 - Jan 29 with 1090 views | Flashberryjack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 19:23 - Jan 28 by exiledclaseboy |
We’re in the post-truth age in which expert opinion and actual policy iscderided in favour of appeals to voters’ baser instincts. trump got himself elected doing it. |
And so might Corbyn.......then we'll know exactly what "the country being f*cked" means |  |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 21:45 - Jan 29 with 1051 views | exiledclaseboy |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 15:48 - Jan 29 by Flashberryjack |
And so might Corbyn.......then we'll know exactly what "the country being f*cked" means |
Oh no we won’t.
Well you started it.  |  |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:06 - Jan 30 with 1022 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:41 - Jan 29 by PozuelosSideys |
Whats your point though?
Im very much in the Brexit camp, but never ever for one second believed it would be all sunshine and lollipops. Im more than well aware of the huge amount of untangling, fudging and grey areas that there are and will be for decades. I have to deal with piles of the stuff and we havent even got to the good bits yet.
I do fundamentally believe that in the medium to long term that this result will be seen as a positive for the UK. I also want to see the EU do very well for itself - financially, and for its people, whilst completely overhauling the current mess the politicians have created - as it makes no sense to have the bloc struggle on our doorstep. None of us want neighbours who dump their old setees in the garden do we? (then again, we are probably seen as the Hyacinth Bucket's.)
In the short term its possible we tank, but we will rebound (look at the inidcators since the vote for trend data). Those who think the world is going to fall apart because of this are naive. Too much pessimism is bad for you and they need to get out more.
But then, opinions are opinions and the vast majority on here will disagree with every point ive made. Time will tell.
Edit. Btw.. that 1.3% figure is a modeled number. If the base assumptions are not on point for the CESifo model in the beginning, then the variables will be all out of whack. The conclusions they make will be at best, iffy. At worst, wrong. They also assume, based on their modeling that there will be a negative multiplier effect (as noted in above) in GDP loss YoY. There is logic to that assuming they have factored in the correct behavioural and risk metrics. The scenario planning has been pretty sub par in hindsight as recent noise would suggest. Art, not science as it were.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-121
This chart does just scream out how the uncertainty has effected GDP though doesnt it? But the trends are upwards. Id bet their notion of a negative multiplier YoY is bollox [Post edited 29 Jan 2018 1:33]
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My point is that the majority of Brexiters saw a land of milk and honey post Brexit. The majority of experts said short to mid term pain...whilst Europe GROWS. When we get over this pain we will be a good chunk behind Europe and will be unlikely to catch up.
As you stated "Time will tell" but I'm rather unhappy that it appears to be a risky venture that I suspect the architects are gambling that by the time we fully realise the error so much time will have passed that they will to a certain extent get away with their perfidy.
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"In the short term its possible we tank, but we will rebound (look at the inidcators since the vote for trend data). Those who think the world is going to fall apart because of this are naive. Too much pessimism is bad for you and they need to get out more. "
Yep, too much pessimism is bad for us but the Government are making a fist of things and are not helping us move from pessimism. They should have got out more and seen the realities of the lives of people and not just the electorate in affluent Tory constituencies. |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:16 - Jan 30 with 1019 views | PozuelosSideys |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:06 - Jan 30 by DJack |
My point is that the majority of Brexiters saw a land of milk and honey post Brexit. The majority of experts said short to mid term pain...whilst Europe GROWS. When we get over this pain we will be a good chunk behind Europe and will be unlikely to catch up.
As you stated "Time will tell" but I'm rather unhappy that it appears to be a risky venture that I suspect the architects are gambling that by the time we fully realise the error so much time will have passed that they will to a certain extent get away with their perfidy.
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"In the short term its possible we tank, but we will rebound (look at the inidcators since the vote for trend data). Those who think the world is going to fall apart because of this are naive. Too much pessimism is bad for you and they need to get out more. "
Yep, too much pessimism is bad for us but the Government are making a fist of things and are not helping us move from pessimism. They should have got out more and seen the realities of the lives of people and not just the electorate in affluent Tory constituencies. |
Aye. True enough. But everyone runs their own race. Dont forget though, comparing the UK with the EU as a whole is comparing apples and pears. In no way can you compare us against the likes of Greece and Croatia and Romania etc. We have very different economies and we are light years ahead in development terms. Id argue France are probably our closest comparator. Germany has had way too much assistance from an undervalued Euro for a decade or so. FWIW, Hard Brexit is a massive no no.
Ive spent a bit of time in various Eastern European countries over the last couple of years. Im in Hungary now actually. The demographics of these countries are changing rapidly. The young are leaving in their droves to the North and West of Europe and outside the EU. Huge swathes of these countries have nothing much left except old people and.. nothing. Not sure how much longer this can go on. I fundamentally dont beleive in centralisation either which is what is happening here. (but thats a whole different conversation)
Affluent Tory constituences were happy with the status quo werent they? Why rock the boat? I know those with money/wealth etcim familiar with were horrified with the vote outcome. |  |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:50 - Jan 30 with 1010 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:16 - Jan 30 by PozuelosSideys |
Aye. True enough. But everyone runs their own race. Dont forget though, comparing the UK with the EU as a whole is comparing apples and pears. In no way can you compare us against the likes of Greece and Croatia and Romania etc. We have very different economies and we are light years ahead in development terms. Id argue France are probably our closest comparator. Germany has had way too much assistance from an undervalued Euro for a decade or so. FWIW, Hard Brexit is a massive no no.
Ive spent a bit of time in various Eastern European countries over the last couple of years. Im in Hungary now actually. The demographics of these countries are changing rapidly. The young are leaving in their droves to the North and West of Europe and outside the EU. Huge swathes of these countries have nothing much left except old people and.. nothing. Not sure how much longer this can go on. I fundamentally dont beleive in centralisation either which is what is happening here. (but thats a whole different conversation)
Affluent Tory constituences were happy with the status quo werent they? Why rock the boat? I know those with money/wealth etcim familiar with were horrified with the vote outcome. |
"Ive spent a bit of time in various Eastern European countries over the last couple of years. Im in Hungary now actually. The demographics of these countries are changing rapidly." ~ "Huge swathes of these countries have nothing much left except old people and.. nothing..."
A strange correlation with UKIP/Tory demographic and Eastern Europe. A bunch of old tvvats who are afraid of immigration and afraid of modernisation and they're right wingers who want everything for themselves and fackall for the young...
Obviously I'm generalising a bit but it's in the same ballpark. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:13 - Jan 30 with 1001 views | PozuelosSideys |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 00:50 - Jan 30 by DJack |
"Ive spent a bit of time in various Eastern European countries over the last couple of years. Im in Hungary now actually. The demographics of these countries are changing rapidly." ~ "Huge swathes of these countries have nothing much left except old people and.. nothing..."
A strange correlation with UKIP/Tory demographic and Eastern Europe. A bunch of old tvvats who are afraid of immigration and afraid of modernisation and they're right wingers who want everything for themselves and fackall for the young...
Obviously I'm generalising a bit but it's in the same ballpark. |
Well. Kind of. The point was more that all the jobs, wealth, investment etc is all centralising around a limited number of hubs. In Europes case its the North. Particularly London, Paris, Amsterdam etc. Theres nothing left for them back in their own countries. That cant be a good thing surely.
Immigration. It has its positives. But like everything else, too much of it and the benefits of it drop away rapidly.
Random statistic. Did you know, the population density of England is 468 people per km (275 for UK as a whole), whereas Germany is 240 pkm. That would mean Germany would need to take in approximately another 75million people to reach the same density as England (or 12million for the UK) | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:25 - Jan 30 with 998 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:13 - Jan 30 by PozuelosSideys |
Well. Kind of. The point was more that all the jobs, wealth, investment etc is all centralising around a limited number of hubs. In Europes case its the North. Particularly London, Paris, Amsterdam etc. Theres nothing left for them back in their own countries. That cant be a good thing surely.
Immigration. It has its positives. But like everything else, too much of it and the benefits of it drop away rapidly.
Random statistic. Did you know, the population density of England is 468 people per km (275 for UK as a whole), whereas Germany is 240 pkm. That would mean Germany would need to take in approximately another 75million people to reach the same density as England (or 12million for the UK) |
Para 1...I did see and understand your point in the original, it's just that I noticed af correlation in the current political outlook in the eastern EU.
Para 2... Have we actually come to too much though. Citation rather than opinion please.
Para 3... I didn't know the figures but I was more than aware of Britain's higher population density.
Random fact for you. The majority of Germans rent their homes (and they often have grandparents living with them). So a "system shock" affects Britain more as the negative equity on homes and the increase in home-owner debt burden kicks in. (But you are more than already aware of this with your FS background.  ) | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:33 - Jan 30 with 997 views | PozuelosSideys |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:25 - Jan 30 by DJack |
Para 1...I did see and understand your point in the original, it's just that I noticed af correlation in the current political outlook in the eastern EU.
Para 2... Have we actually come to too much though. Citation rather than opinion please.
Para 3... I didn't know the figures but I was more than aware of Britain's higher population density.
Random fact for you. The majority of Germans rent their homes (and they often have grandparents living with them). So a "system shock" affects Britain more as the negative equity on homes and the increase in home-owner debt burden kicks in. (But you are more than already aware of this with your FS background. ) |
Aye. Swings and roundabouts though. Think of the impact that has on our infrastructure compared to theirs. France is even less than Germanys. Does it even need citation? How do you even begin to assess qualitative impacts like that? The quants bit is easy enough given stat analysis. (well, sort of if its based around tax intake and GDP etc). Anecdotally id liken it to the trains here at rush hour. 1000 people trying to get on a 500 seat train in the UK compared to 490 trying to get on the same one in Germany. The job gets done, but whose quality of life is better? Im sure we would both agree that money isnt everything!
Hold on. I get your point with the housing, but isnt the current consensus that private rental = bad. Home ownership = good? Isnt solid regulation key to that? (lets not go there as my rent for a 1 bed is painful  ) | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:50 - Jan 30 with 992 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:33 - Jan 30 by PozuelosSideys |
Aye. Swings and roundabouts though. Think of the impact that has on our infrastructure compared to theirs. France is even less than Germanys. Does it even need citation? How do you even begin to assess qualitative impacts like that? The quants bit is easy enough given stat analysis. (well, sort of if its based around tax intake and GDP etc). Anecdotally id liken it to the trains here at rush hour. 1000 people trying to get on a 500 seat train in the UK compared to 490 trying to get on the same one in Germany. The job gets done, but whose quality of life is better? Im sure we would both agree that money isnt everything!
Hold on. I get your point with the housing, but isnt the current consensus that private rental = bad. Home ownership = good? Isnt solid regulation key to that? (lets not go there as my rent for a 1 bed is painful ) |
"How do you even begin to assess qualitative impacts like that?"
Your Tory mates believe they know...or so they tell us all.
As to current consensus on home ownership... Thatcher got rid of the councils (corporations) housing stock with right to buy stopping the funds to allow them to build more etc, etc. We were then left with not enough housing unless you could buy(gazump others). Good quality affordable housing, rented and to buy is the real answer... With your point - SOLID REGULATION. Here again the dogma of the incumbent government undoes us all.
WHAT! YOU RENT!...fücking socialist! I bet you sponge of the state as well!  | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:02 - Jan 30 with 988 views | PozuelosSideys |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 01:50 - Jan 30 by DJack |
"How do you even begin to assess qualitative impacts like that?"
Your Tory mates believe they know...or so they tell us all.
As to current consensus on home ownership... Thatcher got rid of the councils (corporations) housing stock with right to buy stopping the funds to allow them to build more etc, etc. We were then left with not enough housing unless you could buy(gazump others). Good quality affordable housing, rented and to buy is the real answer... With your point - SOLID REGULATION. Here again the dogma of the incumbent government undoes us all.
WHAT! YOU RENT!...fücking socialist! I bet you sponge of the state as well! |
Pfft. Tories know about finance. They know diddlysquat about the fluffy social stuff. Pretty much a mirror image of a Corbynista 
I do rent up here yes. I stuck my old girl in the one i own back down that way so not a complete hypocrite ;) No state sponging either. Havent done that since i lived down there years ago.
The housing market is a shitshow. Im well aware of that one mate. Unlikely id disagree with you on any of that. Think id like businesses/indviduals to be able to own a maximum of 2 for profit at any one time, then after that they get taxed out of sort of value. Think that would cover profiteering and second homes and free up a lot of stock and ideally lower rates. | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:18 - Jan 30 with 985 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:02 - Jan 30 by PozuelosSideys |
Pfft. Tories know about finance. They know diddlysquat about the fluffy social stuff. Pretty much a mirror image of a Corbynista
I do rent up here yes. I stuck my old girl in the one i own back down that way so not a complete hypocrite ;) No state sponging either. Havent done that since i lived down there years ago.
The housing market is a shitshow. Im well aware of that one mate. Unlikely id disagree with you on any of that. Think id like businesses/indviduals to be able to own a maximum of 2 for profit at any one time, then after that they get taxed out of sort of value. Think that would cover profiteering and second homes and free up a lot of stock and ideally lower rates. |
I suspect some Tories know finance whilst for majority it's their golfing buddy(or in-law) who knows finance. Corbyn worries me, not so much going leftwards but going towards the old guard left, the dogmatic, unyielding champagne marxists.
State support for the less well of, the unfortunate etc is a good thing in my eyes and it staggers me how much actual corruption/ crony capitalism goes by relatively unpunished whilst people on benefits are demonised. Don't get me wrong those that take the piss deserve everything that is thrown at them.
I don't have negative equity, so I'm OK there but the future generation is going to struggle.
Thanks for your input mate. 
Next time I'm hoping to get a reply from the heavyweight polymath and Brexit knowledge-base that is PikeyPaul | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:22 - Jan 30 with 984 views | PozuelosSideys |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:18 - Jan 30 by DJack |
I suspect some Tories know finance whilst for majority it's their golfing buddy(or in-law) who knows finance. Corbyn worries me, not so much going leftwards but going towards the old guard left, the dogmatic, unyielding champagne marxists.
State support for the less well of, the unfortunate etc is a good thing in my eyes and it staggers me how much actual corruption/ crony capitalism goes by relatively unpunished whilst people on benefits are demonised. Don't get me wrong those that take the piss deserve everything that is thrown at them.
I don't have negative equity, so I'm OK there but the future generation is going to struggle.
Thanks for your input mate.
Next time I'm hoping to get a reply from the heavyweight polymath and Brexit knowledge-base that is PikeyPaul |
Get him one of these..
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| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:28 - Jan 30 with 982 views | DJack |
| A view, not from a man down the pub on 02:22 - Jan 30 by PozuelosSideys |
Get him one of these..
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He'd either mistake them for a babies rattle or as his love-bead storage rack. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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