Turkey beat Croatia away last night to make qualification automatically that more difficult for Wales for next years Germany finals. Hopes were high after Latvia defeated Armenia 2-0 but a first half goal from Barış Alper Yılmaz in Osijek gave Turkey the points in Group D.

Wales really do need to win on Sunday evening in Cardiff against Croatia to keep the pressure on their group rivals after a disappointing qualification so far. Talk of a draw and a couple of wins may prove positive, but they won’t determine a play off place initially. Only if a tiebreaker is needed to select the successful play off teams will Wales results in Group D come in to play. ( see below )

Those defeats away in Turkey and at home to Armenia are proving difficult to overcome.

November’s games away in Armenia and finishing off at home to Turkey mean even if Wales win all three of their remaining group games they will only muster sixteen points. It’s highly unlikely with that amount of points they will win the group, and even then second place will go down to the wire.

There is another route for Wales.

UEFA ruling: Following the qualifying group stage, the remaining three teams will be decided through the play-offs, to be held in March 2024. Twelve teams will be selected based on their performance in the 2022–23 UEFA Nations League. These teams will be divided into three paths, each containing four teams, with one team from each path qualifying for the final tournament. The group winners of Nations Leagues A, B, and C will automatically qualify for the play-off path of their league unless they have qualified for the final tournament via the qualifying group stage. If a group winner has already qualified through the qualifying group stage, they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team in the same league. However, if there are not enough non-qualified teams in the same league, then the spot will go first to the best-ranked group winner of League D, unless that team has already qualified for the final tournament. The remaining slots are then allocated to next best team in the Nations League overall ranking. However, group winners of Leagues B and C cannot face teams from a higher league. The three play-off paths will each feature two single-leg semi-finals, and one single-leg final. In the semi-finals, the best-ranked team will host the lowest-ranked team, and the second-ranked team will host the third-ranked team. The host of the final will be drawn between the winners of the semi-final pairings. The three play-off path winners will join the twenty teams that already qualified for the final tournament through the group stage.

The tie breaker rules are below.

If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following tie-breaking criteria are applied:

* Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
* Superior goal difference in matches played among the teams in question;
* Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;

If, after having applied criteria 1 to 3, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings.[a] If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 11 apply;

* Superior goal difference in all group matches;
* Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
* Higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
* Higher number of wins in all group matches;
* Higher number of away wins in all group matches;
* Fair play conduct in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
* Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

Whoever came up with those tiebreaker rules has a lot of time on their hands.

What Wales have to do now is go all out for three wins over this weekend and the final week in November. If they finish second in their group they will automatically qualify for Germany next summer. Simple isn’t it ?

There is more to come on the big game on Sunday night here on the Indy.

Artwork by Swansea Independent

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