| The path to a play off place - who plays who? 18:38 - Feb 8 with 544 views | InTimeAddedOn |
There have been quite a few comments in recent posts asking the all important question, can we make the play-offs? Not an easy thing to predict as just 5 points currently separate the 10 clubs between Wrexham in 6th place and Swansea in 15th with Saints in 14th place on 42 points. No massive differences in GD either with the best +6 and the worst -1.
The key thing for me is that there are 31 vital ‘6 pointer’ games where teams between 6th & 15th play each other meaning 3 points have to be shared between two teams in the mix to depose Wrexham and claim the final play off spot. Here is who plays who on the final third of the season in those 6 pointer games. Later on I will do a look at final points totals based on 5 game & 10 game current form.
Wrexham 47 +5
Bristol City A / Watford A / Swansea H / Southampton H / Birmingham A / Stoke H
Preston 47 +4
Watford H / Swansea A / Stoke H / QPR H / Birmingham A / Southampton H
Bristol City 46 +5
Wrexham A / Swansea A / Watford H / QPR A / Southampton A / Birmingham A / Stoke H
Derby 45 +6
Swansea A / Watford A / Birmingham H / Stoke H / Southampton A / QPR A
Birmingham 45 +4
QPR H / Derby A / Wrexham H / Preston14th H / Bristol City H
Watford 44 +3
Preston A / Derby H / Bristol City A / Wrexham H / Stoke A / QPR A
QPR 44 -1
Southampton A /Birmingham A / Watford H / Preston A / Bristol City H / Swansea H / Derby H
Stoke 43 +6
Swansea A / Watford H / Preston A / Derby A / Wrexham A ( Bristol City A
Southampton 43 +3
QPR H / Wrexham A / Derby H / Swansea A / Bristol City H / Preston A
Swansea 42 + 1
Derby A / Bristol City H / Preston H / Stoke H / Wrexham A / Southampton H / QPR A
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| The path to a play off place - who plays who? on 18:57 - Feb 8 with 505 views | shotters |
If we're still in with a chance the games over Easter will be pivotal imo
Ipswich home and Wrexham away in the space of 4 days
The games over Easter blew our chances of automatic promotion a couple of years ago, we conspired to draw at home to Boro and lose at Ipswich when we should have won both |  |
| Fail we may, sail we must |
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| The path to a play off place - who plays who? on 20:25 - Feb 8 with 422 views | HytheFerrytales |
I'm inclined to a simplistic view.
Realistically 6th place is the only achievable aim. The 15 year average points by the 6th place team is 73 points. I reckon the bunching will reduce that marginally this year. Bristol City got 68 points last year. Looking on the bright side, 70 points could work.
The past numbers, therefore, suggest we need minimum 27 points from 15 games to have any genuine" hope" of a play off spot.
So....8 wins ...3 draws...3 defeats. Possible?..Yes.. but a brutal ask. |  | | |
| The path to a play off place - who plays who? on 20:56 - Feb 8 with 390 views | HytheFerrytales |
You're right...8+3+3 is not 15...but you get my drift | | | |
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