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Reply | Minneapolis
at 16:15 25 Jan 2026
Just noticed that Pretti's pistol was a customised version of the Sig Sauer 320. Ironically the basic 320 is the sidearm that ICE has purchased as standard issue for its agents. Not a cheap weapon, so Pretti must have been in to guns. [Post edited 25 Jan 17:00]
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Reply | Minneapolis
at 14:31 25 Jan 2026
The sad thing about the Pretti killing is that his parents had warned him to avoid provoking ICE if he carried on attending Minnesota protests, and he had said he would be careful. Regrettably he was then foolish enough to get into a dispute over the grabbing of another protestor while armed with a 9mm pistol and a spare loaded magazine. Why did he think he needed 16 plus rounds to attend a protest one wonders? Yes, I think the ICE agents could and should have avoided killing this man, but some demonstrators do seem to be pushing things to the limit. From the other side, Vance, Tricia McLaughlin et al stoke the fire by claiming that Pretti approached ICE agents with a drawn pistol, which is clearly untrue. He was just filming on his camera, but he then made the mistake of struggling when the agents tried to detain him and it seems that the pistol was seen. |
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Reply | Cost of Chagos Islands deal rockets
at 09:02 25 Jan 2026
My opening post mentions the social time preference rate that the Government has used to estimate future costs. These projected costs are modified by a discount factor. The discount rate is set at around 3.5% p.a. but then declines over time. The rationale for this is that a public benefit element is incorporated in a cost-benefit calculation, but critics argue that this underestimates the real financial cost to the UK in this case. So HM Treasury is not utilising a straightforward inflation or zero inflation calculation.
https://www.oxera.com/wp-conte |
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Reply | Hull City v Swansea City : Match day thread
at 17:22 24 Jan 2026
I'm not a big Ronald fan but I thought we lost a lot of our attacking threat when he was subbed off. The supply of good crosses from the right largely dried up. One of those games where mistakes turned out to be more important than the general quality of play. Our form over the last 4 games doesn't look so clever now. |
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Reply | Cost of Chagos Islands deal rockets
at 09:37 24 Jan 2026
It is too early to say how this will develop, but the suggestion that ratifying the Chagos deal would conflict with our obligations under a 1966 agreement between the UK and USA concerning the Diego Garcia base and so be against international law is interesting. This appears to be a treaty recognised by the UN that is still in force (Treaty 8737).
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Pu
Article 1 states "the territory shall remain under UK sovereignty", which Tories in the House of Lords say means that the new agreement would violate international law.
Article 11 also appears highly relevant and might be taken to mean that the USA must agree to any variation of this agreement.
(11) The United States Government and the United Kingdom Government
contemplate that the islands shall remain available to meet the possible defense
needs of the two Governments for an indefinitely long period. Accordingly, after an initial period of 50 years this Agreement shall continue in force for a further period of twenty years unless, not more than two years before the end of the initial period, either Government shall have given notice of termination to the other, in which case this Agreement shall terminate two years from the date of such notice.
No doubt, Lord Hermer and company will find grounds for arguing that this does not in fact contradict the current Chagos treaty, but to me it illustrates the knots that nation states tie themselves up in when they attempt to create an international rule-based order by entering multiple cross-cutting treaties that they assume will resolve real-world disputes. It is becoming evident that the current Chagos deal will not shut down legal disputation, but rather open up possibilities for new disputes. In December the Chagossian Voices pressure group drew encouragement when the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination urged the UK and Mauritius not to ratify the new agreement because it violated the human rights of the indigenous islanders. Meanwhile the Government of the Maldives has written to the UK government asserting that they have a stronger claim to sovereignty over the Chagos Islands than Mauritius and also opposing ratification. Now we have complications with the USA. [Post edited 24 Jan 9:47]
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Reply | Trump rubbishes Chagos deal
at 09:05 24 Jan 2026
I don't deny that there are grounds for worrying about the F35 and whether its performance is under the purchasers' full control, but the last bit of the post doesn't take account of recent developments. The UK ordered 48 F35Bs for the carriers, with the full batch to be delivered by March 2026. I think we have received 38 so far with one lost in an accident, but a few are involved in testing in the USA. The UK "Lightening Force" is based at RAF Marham and jointly controlled by the RAF and RN, using personnel from both services. More recently, the Govt has stated that the UK will now buy 12 F35As for the RAF and another 25 F35Bs for the "Lightening Force" for delivery by 2033. The Government has further stated that it plans to buy a total of 138 F35s of both types over the life of the upgrade programme. I agree that this poses certain risks. The problem is that the main rivals - Typhoons, Gripens, Rafales - are so-called four and a half generation jets rather than fifth generation jets, and do not have the same stealth capability.
https://www.gov.uk/government/
https://ukdefencejournal.org.u |
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Reply | A European Army
at 11:11 23 Jan 2026
My impression is that there are huge barriers to overcome before a European army would be feasible. We need better coordination of procurement, so that national resources complement rather than duplicate each other, and standardisation could be improved. There is also a need to plan a Mk 2 version of NATO in which the USA is not seen as the central player. Outside the NATO framework, the most pressing issue in my opinion is coordinating French and UK nuclear weapon targeting and seeking a financial contribution from other European countries in return for providing a "nuclear umbrella". I know this won't be popular, but we need to fill in gaps to have a credible tactical response to a one-off Russian first use of a tactical weapon, and also to have more strategic capability. We need to discuss getting together with the French regarding production and servicing, possibly even in respect of an alternative to US servicing of the Trident missiles. We already make and service the warheads here in the UK, and the French nuclear force is already independent of the USA (and NATO). The French already have am air-launched cruise missile and we should get together on a successor. |
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Reply | Trump rubbishes Chagos deal
at 15:17 22 Jan 2026
That is certainly true of Trump's bizarre stance on Ukraine and Russia. It is as though Putin has some strange hold over the POTUS. I am just pointing to an aspect of the situation in Greenland that most observers may have been slow to understand. |
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Reply | Trump rubbishes Chagos deal
at 10:08 22 Jan 2026
A lot of people say this, but I don't think it is 100% accurate. The treaty gives the US the right to deploy defensive armaments but not offensive armaments, and as I understand things Denmark needs to be consulted. This is what Co-pilot says on this point:
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• Denmark retains full sovereignty over Greenland, and the U.S. explicitly recognized this in the agreement. Any military activity must align with Denmark’s policies and NATO’s defensive posture.
• Historically, Denmark has maintained strict control over what types of weapons systems may be stationed on its territory, including Greenland, and has consistently rejected the placement of offensive or nuclear weapons there.
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My guess is that Trump wants to widen the USA's absolute discretion about what type of weapons it can deploy, and to achieve this wants a sovereign base model along the lines of the UK base in Cyprus. Probably there will also be something about mineral rights in any agreement. The change in base status would give more latitude for the USA to decide on the range of technologies to be incorporated in "Golden Dome". So there may be an element of method in Trump's apparent madness. |
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Reply | Cost of Rachel's U-turns
at 17:44 21 Jan 2026
Good question. According to Co-Pilot it seems true that China has huge wind farm capacity, much of it offshore. My direct experience is limited to two work-related visits each of several weeks to Wuhan and three other central Chinese cities in recent years. I saw a lot of solar panels but not one wind turbine. There were a very large number of e-bikes (looking like small conventional motor cycles) and EV taxis. However, this did not translate into blue skies - even away from cities such as in the largely rural Three Gorges area, which has the world's largest hydro-electric power station. In Wuhan the sky seemed permanently grey and it took only about a week to develop a sore throat. My hosts told me there are only a few months in the year when the air isn't as bad. There still seems to be a lot of dirty heavy industry.
Edit. It may be that most of China's wind farms are offshore or in the north where winds are stronger. A quick internet search for Hubei province (where I mostly stayed) found a study from about 10 years ago stating that only 1% of energy generation there came from wind at that time. [Post edited 21 Jan 17:52]
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Reply | Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers : Match day thread
at 21:42 20 Jan 2026
Guess you have to say that is three good points, but I thought we made heavy weather of beating a poor team. The turning point was a lucky own goal following a double deflection. Re positives, it was good to see Vip get two goals, which i don't think he has managed in a game for us before. A top team would have hit Blackburn for five, but we were content to sit back and let them come onto us once we were 3-1 up. Underwhelming for me in that respect. |
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Reply | Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers : Match day thread
at 20:38 20 Jan 2026
That was another frustrating half. We got ourselves in a good position and then went into a phase of sloppy passing and inability to keep possession that could have left us 1-2 down except for a last-ditch tackle by Burgess. Vip has delivered but too many of the others need to step up a notch. |
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Reply | Trump rubbishes Chagos deal
at 16:25 20 Jan 2026
My worry is that Europe has allowed itself to become so enfeebled, and is affected by so many internal divisions, that its power to act is very limited. I am uncertain what could be done if the USA simply moved troops into Greenland, It seems to me more likely that the US Congress itself might block annexation (as NATO rules are incorporated into US law) than that Europe could do anything other than express outrage. Similarly, if Trump's reaction to open criticism was to stop the flow of arms Europe is buying for Ukraine do we really have enough resources to hold the line against Russia in Ukraine?
To me, what recent developments show is the fragility, even fiction, of the kind of international law that Hermer and Starmer say is the key global governance mechanism. Treaty obligations mean little when the most powerful nations - Russia, China and the USA - opt out, and even countries like India, KSA and Brazil are equivocal. The backstop of "customary international law", which supporters of the "international rule-based order" will mention next, doesn't mean much if a powerful nation says it never recognised that custom (if so -called usus and juris are denied). It seems that the times they are a-changing. [Post edited 20 Jan 16:27]
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Thread | Trump rubbishes Chagos deal
at 07:57 20 Jan 2026
The tone is awful, the content contradicts what Trump and Rubio said last year, but in the cold light of day it is hard to disagree about the Chagos aspect. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, [Post edited 20 Jan 7:58]
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Reply | Minneapolis
at 13:36 17 Jan 2026
Imagine a Plaid/Green Coalition! Talk about the inmates taking over the asylum. I wondered if Llinos Medi meant just Wales when she seemed to make the off-the-wall claim that net migration was negative. On checking even Wales had significantly more arriving than leaving for both 2023 and 2024. |
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Reply | Minneapolis
at 20:08 16 Jan 2026
It is widely reported that the wife shouted "Drive baby, drive" immediately before the car moved forward. Speaking honestly I couldn't quite make out the words on the audio I heard, but she said something. I'm surprised Trampie hasn't seen this. It is mentioned in this thread. As i recall one of the agents initially told Mrs Good to drive on, but when she wouldn't move told her to get out of the SUV. |
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Reply | Robert Jenrick
at 21:49 15 Jan 2026
Agree that the Tory defections are a double-edged sword for Reform, as too many failed ex-ministers doesn't look good. However, I wonder whether this is not so much an across the board exodus in a quest for survival, but the splitting of the right wing Tory faction from the more socially-liberal "wets". In fairness to Jenrick, he resigned after less than two months as Immigration Minister because he did not think Tory policies were tough enough, and in that respect many of us would say he was right. As we know now, the post-COVID surge in numbers was far bigger than we realised at the time. |
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Reply | Minneapolis
at 21:11 15 Jan 2026
Yes, it should be the New York Post (my typo), but the point is that the video at the beginning of the article includes the originally-sized film of the SUV clipping Ross, and then a much longer sequence which shows that the claim that this was a separate incident is quite wrong.
As regards ScruffyJack's post, the reason why Mrs Good reversed first and then put her steering on full lock right is that she needed to do that to get the car back on to the road since her starting position was at 90 degrees to the flow of traffic. It was like part of a 3 point turn. One thing you may spot as she engaged forward gear is that the rear wheels were spinning before the car gained traction, suggesting hard acceleration. I made no claim that Mrs Good intended to harm Ross, just that she was reckless and did make contact with him. [Post edited 15 Jan 21:25]
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