Andy Hillman and Owen Goulding are back to look ahead to QPR's trip to Swansea and a weekend of sporting action elsewhere.
Another couple of wins for the prolific Mr Hillman last week, including an outrageously random selection of Barnsley to win at Blackpool with both teams to score that drew cries of disbelief around the Crown and Sceptre (well, at our table anyway) when it came in. Both Andy and our professional odds compiler Owen Goulding were punished for their faith in a QPR win against Norwich though.
Another good week for me last week as my NAP came in at 13/20, and my outrageous 15/2 ‘Both teams to score and Barnsley to win’ came in as well, to much incredulity from Clive down the pub it has to be said.
NAP of the Week: Man Utd to beat Everton @ 11/13
Everton have been absolutely brilliant so far this season, sitting fifth, and losing only four games in all competitions so far. But Man Utd have won 11 of their 12 league games at Old Trafford, and their last eight in a row. Man Utd at home at nearly evens is absolutely huge.
QPR related Bet: Swansea vs QPR - Correct score 0-0 @ 10/1
QPR don’t concede any goals and more, and we don’t score them either. Four goalless draws in five league games - did we even achieve that under Paolo Sousa? Of course, Clive has predicted a goal-less draw elsewhere, so expect it to finish four all...
That lot to do us a favour: Chelsea to beat Wigan by at least two goals @ Evens
Rafa Benitez may be doing a car-crash job at Chelsea , but even Paul Hart could guide Chelsea to a win at home against Wigan . Chelsea are still scoring plenty, even if they are conceding in equal measure, and Chelsea to win with a -1 handicap at evens looks an absolute shoe in.
Long Shot: European Accumulator - Dortmund , Bayern, AC Milan and Parma all to win @ 6/1
After the success of my Barnsley bet last week I was tempted to go again with same bet - they’re away at Middlesbrough this week, who have lost four on the bounce in the league. I’m playing it slightly safer though with four fairly sure European matches in a simple fourfold @ 6/1 instead.
Winners so far:
NAP - Norwich vs QPR - Both teams to score @ 4/6, 24/8/12
LONGSHOT - Tottenham vs West Brom - Lay Tottenham @ 2/1, 24/8/12
NOTEBOOK - Stoke vs Arsenal, Liverpool vs Man City , draw double, 7/1, 24/07/12
QPR related Bet - Zamora to score anytime v Man City at 11/2, 30/08/12
Longshot - Tottenham vs Norwich - lay Spurs @ 1.4, 30/08/12
Notebook - Roma to beat Inter @ 3/1 30/08/12
Nap – Man Utd to win to nil v Wigan , 11/10, 13/09/12
Longshot – double as part of a Premiership Yankee at 10/1, 13/09/12
Longshot – Premier League double at 9/1, 21/09/12
NAP- Chelsea vs Stoke - Chelsea to win to nil @ 11/8, 21/09/12
Longshot – Premier League double at 4/1, 29/09/12
Europe to win the Ryder Cup at 2/1, 29/09/12
QPR related bet: Goal in the first 15 minutes v West Brom @ 9/4, 05/10/12
Notebook: Barcelona vs Real Madrid - Ronaldo to score anytime @ 13/10, 05/10/12
Longshot: Southampton v Fulham, Swansea v Reading draw double: @ 10/1, 05/10/12
NAP - West Brom vs Man City - Both teams to score @ 4/5, 18/10/12
Longshot - Goals Galore 8/1 Quad, 18/10/12
NAP - Sheffied United to beat Portsmouth @ 5/6, 25/10/12
Longshot - Sunday afternoon ‘Goals Galore’ @ 8/1, 25/10/12
Banker: Van Persie to score first against Arsenal @ 9/2, 2/11/12
NAP: Crystal Palace to win at Peterborough @ 7/5
Inevitable Scorers: Suarez to score first vs Wigan (4/1), 16/11/12
NAP: Arsenal vs Spurs - both teams to score @ 4/7, 16/11/12
NAP - Man Utd vs QPR - Man U to win & BTTS @ 7/4, 24/11/12
Other QPR Related Bet - Sunderland vs QPR - Draw @ 13/5, 24/11/12
NAP of the week - Lay Chelsea (vs West Ham) @ 16/15, 30/11/12
NAP of the week - Norwich to beat Wigan @ 16/13, 14/12/12
NAP – QPR and West Brom to draw, 5/2, 04/01/13
Longshot – Brighton to beat Newcastle 7/4, 04/01/13
Notebook – Cheltenham v Everton, both teams to score and Everton to win 9/4, 04/01/13
Aston Villa vs Southampton - Southampton to win @ 31/16, 11/01/13
Man Utd vs Liverpool - BTTS, Man U to win @ 9/4, 11/01/13
Nap: Liverpool & Man City to beat Norwich & Fulham @ 3/4, 18/01/13
NAP of the Week: Stoke vs Man City - Man City to win @ 4/5, 25/01/13
Notebook - Stoke vs Wigan, Sunderland vs Swansea draw double 10/1, 25/01/13
Longshot: Barnsley to beat Blackpool and both teams to score @ 15/2, 01/02/13
NAP of the week: Man Utd to beat Fulham @ 13/20, 01/02/13
As a compiler, very rarely a price comes about which I cannot understand for any reason. Such a price has occurred this week in our very own Hoops game. The general price in the market for Swansea is currently at time of writing - 5/6. Loosely translated, this means out of the possible three outcomes, bookmakers are rating Swansea as having over 50% chance of winning this game. I understand they are a decent side , I understand they are on a high after reaching their first major final since the old king died, and I understand that they have the oldest ball-boy currently operating in the Premiership - but nothing in recent form (the best pointer for evaluating a game) can explain to me why they are such a short price to win this match.
QPR have kept clean sheets in five out of their eight games this season, only conceding in three of them. One of those games was a complete reserve side against MK Dons and, with the addition of Chris Samba, have notably strengthened the defence. Swansea on the other hand have failed to score in five of their nine games since the turn of the year. Now I know QPR have a poor away record as a whole and Swansea's home record also as a whole is decent, but why would you want to back a team at odds on who have failed to score in three of their last four Premiership games, against a team who has failed to concede in three of their last four games?
Making money gambling is not about what you think will win. It is about beating the percentages, and for me, there is no reason Swansea should be such a short price here with no significant team news to contradict the statistics. All that said, QPR are toothless too. In fact, everything points to a low scoring game. Time is running out for Rangers and draws are not enough, but they still appear to play cautiously with little urgency. I couldn't be backing Swansea at the current prices even with stolen money, but I can't see a great reason for backing QPR either. The draw looks a huge price at 13/5 and i also think BetVictor's 2/1 about it to be 0-0 at half-time is worth an interest too. I'm afraid I'm not advocating a reason to make the journey into the land of the leek but my recommended bets for this weekend are Swansea v QPR Draw @ 13/5 generally, and also 0-0 HT score @ 2/1 with Victor Chandler.
Winners so far:
Norwich v QPR, 11/10 Under 2.5 goals 24/08/12
West Brom v QPR, more than 2.5 goals, 4/5, 05/10/12
James Morrison to score anytime v QPR, 5/1, 05/10/12
QPR and Everton to draw 13/5, 18/10/12
MK Dons at plus 0.75 v QPR, Evens, 25/01/13
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