Predictions Revisited - part 2 Friday, 28th May 2010 22:47
We bring you the final part of our look back at how we thought 2009-10 would transpire.
1st |
Rotherham United |
What we said |
Take last
season's points deductions away, and no doubt we'd have been talking
about a manager who had rescued a side from the depths of going bust
to assembling a squad that had made the Play Offs. Throw in the ball
and chain of the points deductions which once zero points had been
achieved must have robbed all motivation for the season away, and
you start to wonder what could have happened had Robins been given a
fair hand to play with. Perhaps Robins time as manager will mirror
his Man Utd experience of taking them to the lowest point and
bringing them back from there. Given the extra funds he's been given
to play with, its easy to see that happening for him with the
Millers this time round.So with the calibre of their signings, the
huge strides forward made last season and the excellent management
by Robins, I think that Rotherham will be able to mount and sustain
a successful Championship campaign. They won't have the pressure on
them that other sides in the division may have, which could work to
their advantage. Nothing is really expected of Rotherham, and
anything top seven will be seen as an improvement rather than a
disappointment. |
Reality |
When you
consider that a few days after writing this that they went out and
splashed whatever six figure sum on one of their promotion rivals'
top scorer, then it's easy to look back on Rotherham's season and
say that no matter whatever happens at Wembley this weekend, they
have been the division's biggest underachievers of the season. And
if their Wembley trip proves fruitless, then disappointment
shouldn't even come close to describing their campaign. Obviously
they did suffer the blow of losing manager Mark Robins to Barnsley
early on, but we amongst many others had them down as promotion
favourites before they signed Alfie. In many people's eyes this
season, Rotherham have been nothing but Alfie. What happened to the
rest of the squad which had us pinning our colours to their
Sheffield based mast? |
2nd |
Notts County |
What we said |
Will it work out for the
Magpies? Well the majority of takeovers tend not to work out,
especially those that come with some sort of fanfare and promises
about where the side will be in five years time. It's reality that
for every knight in shining armour, there are nine other
unscrupulous owners looking to make money out of a lower division
football club by fair means or foul. Looking at the County squad,
contrary to popular conceptions, they haven't actually spent that
much money so far. They've spent more than they would have done in
your average Notts County Summer, and it is with funds in excess of
their peers, but they've not gone Real Madrid style crazy with their
spending, they've bought League Two players that were targets for
other League Two sides, suggesting there's not this limitless pot of
money that has been made out. When January comes along and the
transfer window opens, County will gain the advantage of the teams
they are competing with by playing the financial Ace up their
sleeve. Conceding too many goals? Let's get some defenders in.
Manager not working out? Get rid. Promotion rivals doing too well?
Buy their best player. I don't think they'll win the title as
there's too many question marks over McParland and some of the new
signings to make the transition an easy one, but it is one which
will end in automatic promotion. |
Reality |
There's a
certain amount of smugness on our part when looking back on this
prediction and highlighting that things weren't just adding up with
the new takeover down at Meadow Lane. You don't go out and get a
former England manager and a Premiership defender on a shopping list
which also saw them visit the out of contract lists at Barnet and
Bradford. Of course, we got it hopelessly wrong when we said the
difference would be come the January transfer window when they would
be able to strengthen in ways their promotion rivals could only
dream of. That transfer window saw the start of the embargo meaning
no new players stepped into Sol's boots, but it mattered little with
a fantastic run of form following the signing of Steve Cotterill -
an appointment which must go down as one of the all time great
managerial appointments. The clichés have it spot on when calling it
a rollercoaster season, and history will judge as to whether their
critics were correct or not. Did Cotterill work magic, or did he
merely highlight underachievement early in the season? Or does it
not matter when you've got the trophy in the cabinet. |
3rd |
Bury |
What we said |
So if its going to go wrong
for Bury this season, it'll be that absence of creativity coupled
with the paper thin squad, but there's more than enough evidence to
suggest that its going to be another good season for the Shakers.
They are strong in all areas, and no side will receive an easy game
when facing them. One attribute they possess more than perhaps any
other in the division is a lot of characters in the side - big
personalities with bags of experience behind them, and that'll
certainly ensure that they don't fall victim to any Play Off
hangover from last season - if anything, they'll use that to spur
themselves on to bigger and better things. Automatic promotion
beckons for Bury. Sorry. |
Reality |
Oh dear
Shakers, where did it all go wrong? There you were, sitting pretty
on our coat tails which games in hand which gave them a platform to
overtake ourselves and then they went on a run that mirrored our end
of the season. The only difference was that our run came when
promotion was in the bag, whilst Bury's came just when the going got
tough. I'm sure there's a million different theories as to why
things went wrong, but it did come at a similar time of the season
when a new contract was offered and rejected to Stephen Dawson,
whilst the rest of the players were told to await the end of the
season. Despite the perfectly understandable reasons for doing so,
there's no room for favouritism in a team game, and Bury were found
wanting at a time when they had their biggest squad of the season to
pick from. At least it put an end to the "one season behind Hill"
stories. |
4th |
Lincoln City |
What we said |
If there was one team who
disappointed us last season, it was Lincoln. We had them down as
being our tip for automatic promotion, describing them as a team
with potential who had made key signings over the Summer to lift
them amongst the challengers. So looking overall at Lincoln's squad
now, I think it's fair to say that Jackson has repaired the damage
of the departures, and in doing so has gone with younger, hungrier
players than he did a year ago to solve that goalscoring issue, and
if they can get off to a better start than they did last season (and
to be fair, they can hardly do worse), then they've got a real
chance of getting some momentum going. |
Reality |
So for the
season season on the trot, I tip Lincoln to do well and they go and
have a season that aspired to monotony. The ingredients all seemed
there, with a decent manager, promising signings etc but it all just
fell away very early on, and it was a season spent looking down
rather than up. Funnily enough, given their end to the last season
and initial movements in the Summer transfer market, I've been
thinking that they look a decent bet for next season. Will I ever
learn? |
5th |
Northampton Town |
What we said |
My memories
of Northampton in this division would suggest that Gray may be gone
before the leaves have dropped off the trees. This might be complete
rubbish, but I do have this recollection that when the Cobblers have
been relegated to this division, they are usually awful for the
first two or three months of the season, sacking their manager and
then embarking on a run as good as any side in the division and
sneaking either into the Play Offs or automatic promotion spots
during the last weekend of the season. I'm expecting a very similar
season to what (in my head at least) happens to Northampton every
time they're down here. Dreadfully poor till Novemberish, Gray gets
the boot, and then they start a no nonsense onslaught on League Two. |
Reality |
For a long
while, it seemed like my Northampton prediction was eerily spot on.
It was only a dip in form in the last four or five games when they
suffered a number of key injuries that stopped them sneaking into
the Play Offs that stopped it becoming true. Credit must be given to
the Cobblers hierarchy for sticking by Ian Sampson after a dreadful
start as Caretaker manager. We have often talked about how Chris
Dunphy had no option but to give Hill the job after his time as
caretaker boss, but Sampson lost his first three games in charge,
conceding ten goals in the process including a home defeat to our
very good selves. |
6th |
Chesterfield |
What we said |
There's
clear improvements at Saltergate and with a new manager at the helm,
new stadium on the horizon at long last, there's a real feeling of
optimism about the place, or at least there should be. Despite their
ability to name the oldest side ever known at this level since the
days when Frank Worthington was calling last rites on his career, we
think there's a touch of either now or never for the Spireites, and
the board will be keen to start the new season in a higher division
which could be the difference between pushing on and consolidation
when the January transfer window comes along. Either way, it's a
step up for Chesterfield as they put the Richardson era well and
truly behind them. |
Reality |
I just don't
get Chesterfield. For years, they seemed to be held back by
Richardson, but when they replaced him with Sheridan - a manager who
had done alright at Oldham, it was as if nothing had changed. They
still seemed intent on ensuring that they finished 8th all season
long. Obviously, they were good enough on their day to beat anybody
but equally, they were fair game for anybody too. Of course, they
weren't helped by injuries to Jack Lester throughout the season,
though equally you have to expect them of players of his age, and
its not like they had a pittance of a budget. You could argue that
they only fell short by a couple of points but not quite being good
enough was the epitaph to their season. |
7th |
Rochdale |
What we said |
We have a
settled squad, one which is marginally better than it was last
season (and certainly not weaker) and perhaps we are now better
equipped to dealing with situations like our captain missing half
the season through injury, and whilst we'd all like another couple
of players in the squad (with "we" including both the board and the
management) to help push to that next level, realistically we have
to make the best of what we have, without putting the future of the
club at risk. This squad has proved itself to be more than just
capable of competing in this division, with away victories at two of
the top three sides last season, and whilst the cover within the
squad might be slightly thinner, it still remains and there is
always an answer to "What happens if.......". For us not to make the
Play Offs again this season, look at our peers and ask yourself,
have we become a worse side over the Summer than Shrewsbury, than
Morecambe, than Bradford, than Dagenham etc. There's very few teams
who I would say have strengthened with many visibly weaker than last
time round. So all in all, it will be Play Offs again for Dale this
season |
Reality |
When we
stuck our Dale prediction online, general consensus was that we were
letting our heart rule our head and that if we got anywhere close to
the Play Offs then we'd had a tremendous season. It's difficult to
remember just what a depressing time last Summer was. According to
the messageboard. Our justification for predicting a good season was
simple. Whilst we felt we hadn't strengthened how we'd have liked
(if we don't sign Stephen Foster from Darlo, we'll be forced into
playing this 18 year old kid in defence.....), we saw the same
feelings up and down the country as financial reality started to hit
home amongst Division Four. And if everyone was feeling the same
way, then surely things can't be as bad as they seemed. Of course,
the emergence of Dawson and the signing of O'Grady could not be
foreseen, but we did suggest to Dale supporters that under Keith
Hill we finished the season with key players being those who started
the season as fledglings. Oh how I wish I put Dawson instead of
Brizzle, Brown or Byrne. But despite my own optimistic feelings, not
even in my wildest dreams did I anticipate anything close to what we
had. One day 2009-10 will properly sink in, probably when we see
some other side sweeping aside everyone who got in their way. Now if
only we hadn't sung that song at Accrington, then we could have had
some silverware. |
8th |
Morecambe |
What we said |
Given that this will be
their last season at Christie Park, it might just give them that
little bit a lift to help push them up the table. But will it be
enough to make the top seven? Probably not, but who'd have predicted
Exeter finishing second last season? Anything is possible in this
division. But I think making the top seven may be just that bit too
far for them. They'll come close and it will certainly bring
optimism to the first season at the new stadium in 2010-11, but they
won't be kicking off the new stadium with a new division. |
Reality |
I hope for
the sake of the supporters of Morecambe that the play off
humiliation at Dagenham does not become the abiding memory of the
2009-10 season for them, for it was an awful finish to what was
their best ever season, and for them to reach the play offs ahead of
sides like Bury, Chesterfield, Bradford, Shrewsbury etc who all had
budgets way ahead of the Shrimps, then its something they should be
massively proud of. It can only be down to McIlroy, annoying dummy
spitter that he is, their success or possibly my own ignorance that
when looking at the Morecambe side, there is no stand out reason why
they did as well as they did. There was never a chance of them
having a player in the PFA Divisional side, but I'm sure supporters
of Crewe or Bury saw little comfort in this. |
9th |
Shrewsbury Town |
What we said |
Given that
we feel that they are weaker than twelve months ago, and as such
won't finish as high as last time round. Simpson has shown that when
the pressure rises, which it will this year for him, he doesn't
respond well to it, and it could drag Shrewsbury further down.
There's still plenty of quality there, and they were far from being
the one man team they were incorrectly labelled last season, but I
don't see anything within the Shrewsbury camp now to make them stand
out from all the sides chasing the promotion places, and whilst you
can look at their peers and pick out the potential match winners.
Such a signing may well arrive, but you're pinning your hopes on a
player who hasn't even signed yet. A season spent looking back at
2008-9 and wondering what could and should have been beckons for
Shrews, as they ponder whether they've missed their golden
opportunity. |
Reality |
Oh Paul,
we're sorry for giving you false hope by tipping you to finish so
high up. In much the same way as Steve Parkin's second spell at
Dale, you can split it into two halves. The time with Grant Holt,
and the time without, and in both cases, the Holt days merely hid
the weaknesses in the camp that became all too obvious following his
departure. It was certainly a season to forget for the Shrews, and
despite being given funds to do so, Simmo proved that Holt was an
impossible act to follow, with his replacements proving to be
financial disasters. It wasn't helped either by another discarded
striker Constable grabbing the goals to help Oxford to promotion. A
season that started wanting automatic promotion before hoping for
the play offs and eventually desperate to consign 2009-10 to
the history books. |
10th |
Hereford United |
What we said |
Hereford
have proved in the past that they can make excellent use of the loan
system, and we'd fully expect more of the same from that this
season. Their current squad is a tad short on numbers, but those
players might be simply there to support the loan players that come
in to build a side around as they did in 2008. So its perhaps with
no real conviction that we stick Hereford down for a tenth placed
finish - we wouldn't be overly surprised if it all went horribly
wrong, but we're happy enough to go with tenth for now. Certain
signings might carry question marks, but they're at least making
signings which puts them at an advantage over many teams in this
division who have cut the cloth to napkin size proportions over the
Summer. That'll make a difference but not enough to repeat the
marvels of 2008. |
Reality |
We said we
had no conviction for them finishing tenth, and that was perhaps the
only thing that we got right about them. They had all the hallmarks
of a side that had been relegated back to League Two without a whiff
of what got them up to League One in the first place. Perhaps it
merely highlighted that they got somewhat lucky with their choice of
loan signings back in 2007-8 or whenever it was that they went up,
but they showed nothing this past season, and no one would have
batted an eyelid had they dropped into the Blue Square once again. |
11th |
Torquay United |
What we said |
Overall it's
perhaps a bit of a strange prediction this for us, basing things on
what has gone on in previous years involving other sides rather than
on what Torquay actually have about them. It's that sort of thinking
which led to people having human sacrifices to the Harvest Gods.
After all, what relevance does Exeter City of last season have on
Torquay United of this season? But there's enough gone on previously
for us to think that there must be something behind it all, and
that's why we're prepared to put Torquay significantly higher than
what we ordinarily might do. We have concerns about the size of
their squad and the age of some of them, but they do at least have
someone who will score goals and looks a cracking bet for League Two
top scorer at 40-1 (Rendell). Eleventh place for the Gulls, but we
won't be surprised where they end up this next season. |
Reality |
This was
always a bit of a stab in the dark this. The basis behind a finish
of 11th was mostly down to what the likes of Doncaster and Exeter
had done previously Conference Play Off winners but given what we
witnessed and suffered at Plainmoor when we headed en masse to
celebrate promotion, then a finish of 11th would have been something
of a disappointment for the Gulls, such was their overall
fantasticness on the day. The fact that they were a side seen to be
within the sights of Grimsby at the time made the day a little
surreal, but results following their 5-0 thumping of ourselves
showed that it was no one off fluke. Of course, their overall final
position was probably described by an inconsistency that saw their
display at Spotland as one of the weakest of any side throughout the
season. |
12th |
Bradford City |
What we said |
Comparing
squad quality from this season to last, I'd have to say that they
are marginally worse off this time round and as such I can't see
them finishing as high as they did last season, especially when
their true position of 9th last season was actually 11th taking the
points deductions into account. I think a failure to compete at the
top will see the cracks start showing with McCall this year, and
surely the Bantams supporters cannot tolerate another season of
suffering defeats to teams who are minnows in comparison and
settling for a place in the league table alongside the likes of
Morecambe and Dagenham. It's not going to be pleasant, and whilst
there are many teams who would snap their hand off now for a
position of 12th, is that really good enough for Bradford City? |
Reality |
I wasn't
exactly holding out much hope for Bradford's season, but I never
anticipated that it was ever going to be quite as bad as it actually
was. The signs were there last Summer. Now this is genuinely meant
as no disrespect to Simon Ramsden, who served us well, but when the
likes of Ramsden is held as one of your sides best players, then you
know you have issues. Unless your right back is Cafu, full backs are
there to do their job and not be noticed. But the volume of plaudits
for Ramsden amongst the Bantams faithful reinforced just how bad the
rest of them must have been. Time will tell as to whether Peter
Taylor can succeed where McCall so spectacularly failed, but Taylor
is fast getting himself a reputation as a managerial Bradford City,
and I doubt the Bradford fans will search for every positive going
as they did with his predecessor. |
Photo: Action Images
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