The lads have enjoyed their international break, but now they’re back looking to claw back the losses made so far this season and put some food on the LFW table for Christmas.
A profit of £18.33 for Andy last time out reducing his losses to £214.17 compared to Brian’s deficit of £201.80. A lean year so far then. The Pro was half right last week – his bet of most goals in the second half of the QPR City game at 11/10 was correct, but he was one of many pundits undone by tipping Everton to end Newcastle’s long unbeaten run.
I know what when you’re (both) thinking; when oh when will Andy turn a profit on a betting column again? Surely he deserves at least a small profit one week in 12? Well you’ll both be delighted to know that I did turn a profit last week, thanks to Robin Van Persie, who scored first at 10/3 last time out. My accumulator once again hit the bar and didn’t cost me any money last week - although it was Huddersfield and not Roma that surprisingly let me down. Of Course, QPR’s steadfast refusal to roll over and get beaten heavily by the big teams (whilst happily shipping goals against the dregs…) lost me money, but I ended the week nearly £20 up.
This week, we’re up at Stoke, and I’m torn on this one. On one hand Stoke, for all their scary place to go and big strong bruising players brouha, look eminently beatable at the moment. On the flip side however, we’re pretty rubbish at defending set pieces. According to Opta, 75% of Stoke’s goals have come from set pieces. I’m going to go for a QPR win, draw no bet, available at 5/2 with Bet365, who do their bore=draw refund. As a bit of backup, I’m going to whack a fiver on Robert Huth to score anytime at 7/1 with Paddy Power.
Elsewhere, Norwich are hosting Arsenal-Van-Persie this weekend. Norwich are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, and RVP is 4/1 to open the scoring. It’s like buying money…
A couple of interesting other things to look at that are worth highlighting, are in the match between Swansea vs. Man Utd. Firstly, Man U are 8/15 for the win at Swansea. That’s absolutely massive in my eyes. Everyone talks about how good Swansea are at home (and they do play lovely football…), but their five home league games have been against Bolton, Stoke, WBA, Sunderland and Wigan. Even more ludicrous is that Man U are 6/4 to win to nil. Just to spell that out, That means that if you bet £10 on Man U to beat Swansea without conceding a goal, you’ll be given £25 back.
Finally, and surely it’s third time lucky for my accumulator this week - Arsenal, Man U, Rangers, Inter and Barcelona all to win @ 11/2 with Victor Chandler. It’ll be Arsenal that lets me down this week.
For the Weekend:
Stoke vs. QPR - QPR to win, DNB - £10 @ 5/2 (Bet365)
Stoke vs. QPR - Huth to score anytime - £5 @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
Norwich vs. Arsenal - RVP to score first - £10 @ 4/1 (Betfred)
Swansea vs. Man U - Man U to win to nil - £10 @ 6/4 (Bet365)
Fivefold accumulator - Arsenal, Man U, Rangers, Inter and Barcelona all to win £10 @ 11/2 (Victor Chandler)
Stoke City in Europe is a phrase none of us thought we would hear so you have to praise Tony Pullis even if you don't like their style of play. People are expecting more from them this season and although they are mid table and are doing well in Europe the press are saying they have had a poor start. We will do well to get a win so I will plump for a 1-1 draw. Jay Bothroyd has looked lively since his return and is worth a punt on first scorer.
Charlton and Southend are flying and should see off Brentford and Dagenham, Shrewsbury should beat managerless Northampton and the BBC show Burnley v Leeds (anyone miss Steve Claridge's musings about us? No me neither) and the away side should pick up all three points.
Bristol City have hit a bit if form as have Millwall but the price in the away side seems value so is worth a single bet.
In the 2.45 at Ascot Paul Nicholls has King of the Knight @4/1 and is worth a wager at those odds and in the 2.30 at Haydock Oliver Sherwood and Leighton Aspinall have the lightly raced Global Power that should run well at double figures.
It was highlighted the other day the lengths some people will go to for a bet on something - on Wednesday afternoon you could bet in play on the reserve games at Burton and Hartlepool. With no disrespect to fans of any of the clubs why would you bet on a game involving the stiffs ?
Finally during my absence last time out I got to meet the inventor of the windowsill. What a ledge!!
For the Weekend:
QPR v Stoke £5 singles
Jay Bothroyd 1st goal 9/1
Correct score 1-1 13/2
£2 trebles and a £2 acca
Leeds 19/10
Charlton 7/5
Shrewsbury 11/8
Southend 5/6
£10 Single Bristol City 3/1
£15 win
2.45 Ascot King of the Knight4/1
£5 2.30 Haydock
Global Power
Rangers travel to 'Fortress' Britannia after the international Break. It is fair to say QPR really didn't want an international break and Stoke were praying for one. I refer to it as 'Fortress' Britannia but in truth, statistics show this trend is starting to slide. Teams are wise to dealing with Delap Throw-ins and the physical nature of Stoke's play seems less effective week after week. Stoke have conceded 11 goals in their last three league games, a worrying stat when you consider two of the opponents were Newcastle and Bolton and in truth, I think they are due to concede more on Saturday. Defender/midfielder/nooneknowshisbestposition Marc Wilson is a player looking lost at left back. He concedes too much possession, has little pace and is prone to making the wrong decision more often than not. I can see SWP having a field day up against him if he plays. The alternative will be Pulis playing yet another centre back at right back and playing Wilkinson at left back - again giving SWP a free run in the candy store. Therefore my bet of the weekend is SWP to score at anytime @ 5/1 (Paddy Power or William Hill). It won’t be easy, but I think it could be a good day for the away following.